Navigating Lebanon’s Multiple Crises

Why It Matters

The crisis threatens Lebanon’s social fabric and regional stability, while exposing urgent funding gaps and the need for decisive political solutions that will shape future humanitarian and reconstruction markets.

Key Takeaways

• One million Lebanese displaced; shelters house only 15% of them.
• Humanitarian funding halved to $25 billion, straining aid response.
• Displaced populations concentrated in Beirut, Saida, and Mount Lebanon.
• Government seeks permanent ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal from 55 villages.
• Lebanon plans Hezbollah disarmament and state‑led community rebuilding.

Summary

The CSIS interview highlighted Lebanon’s spiraling humanitarian emergency as a second front of the Iran‑Israel conflict intensifies. More than one million people—roughly 20% of the population—have been displaced since March 2, yet only about 700 shelters accommodate a mere 15% of them, forcing the majority into family homes, friends’ apartments, or costly rentals. Minister Hanin Syed explained that international aid has slashed from $50 billion to $25 billion, while Gulf donors are preoccupied with their own crises. Displacement is now geographically concentrated in Beirut, Saida and Mount Lebanon, limiting shelter options and heightening competition for scarce resources such as water, electricity and garbage services. She warned that 55 villages in the south have been effectively erased, leaving an estimated 150,000 residents facing permanent displacement unless a permanent ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal are secured. The government also announced a historic decision to disarm Hezbollah, emphasizing a whole‑of‑government approach to fill the social service vacuum and launch cross‑confessional youth and community programs. The combined humanitarian, political and security challenges signal a protracted recovery requiring renewed donor commitments, robust state capacity, and a durable political settlement. Without these, Lebanon’s economic collapse will deepen, regional instability will rise, and reconstruction opportunities for private firms will remain uncertain.

Original Description

After more than a month of hostilities, Lebanon and Israel agreed to a fragile 10-day ceasefire on April 16 after their first direct talks in decades. Israeli strikes and evacuation orders forcibly displaced over 1 million people; more than 2,000 people have been killed, and more than 7,000 have been wounded. Many are seeking to return to their homes despite dangerous conditions. Lebanon was already grappling with the consequences of a historic economic crisis and deep cuts to humanitarian aid. Now, the ripple effects of the Iran war have increased fuel, food, and medical prices, and are further straining Lebanon's fragile economy and exacerbating social vulnerabilities.

How will this latest war impact Lebanon's longstanding socioeconomic challenges? If the ceasefire holds, what are the opportunities and challenges for early recovery efforts? How will these efforts impact Lebanon's affected communities, especially its Shia community in the south? And what will this mean for broader stabilization efforts in Lebanon?

To explore these questions and more, please join the CSIS Middle East Program for a discussion between H.E. Haneen Sayed, Minister of Social Affairs of Lebanon, and Mona Yacoubian, CSIS Middle East Program Director on Monday, April 27 at 9:00 AM EDT.

H.E. Haneen Sayed is an experienced economic development professional. She spent 30 years at the World Bank leading major strategic engagements, business development, reform programs, and policy dialogue in economic and human development, spanning four regions of the world (Middle East and North Africa, East Asia, South Asia, and Europe). Since leaving the World Bank in 2023, she joined the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center as a senior fellow. Her sectors of expertise include social protection, labor and jobs, education, poverty, and gender, in addition to fragility and conflict. She is the author or co-author of multiple publications and articles, and an economist by academic training with undergraduate and graduate degrees from Stanford and Columbia Universities, respectively, and executive training at Harvard University.

This event is online-only and will be livestreamed on this webpage.

This event is made possible by generous support to the CSIS Middle East Program from the embassies of Canada, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, and Ray Debbane.

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