Iran Ramps up Jask Exports, but Still Heavily Reliant on Kharg Island

Why It Matters

The heavy reliance on Kharg means any military strike could sharply curtail Iran’s oil revenues and affect global supply, while Jask’s limited capacity offers only modest risk mitigation.

Key Takeaways

• Jask handled ~4.4% of Iran's oil exports in March.
• Kharg Island still ships about 90% of Iran's crude.
• Jask capacity limited to ~350,000 barrels per day.
• New VLCC loading shows Jask can receive large carriers.
• Concentration on Kharg leaves exports vulnerable to attacks.

Pulse Analysis

Iran’s oil export architecture has long hinged on Kharg Island, a facility that moves the lion’s share of the nation’s crude through the Strait of Hormuz. Because Kharg sits within a narrow maritime chokepoint, it is exposed to geopolitical flashpoints, ranging from U.S. sanctions to potential Israeli or regional strikes. Recent intelligence indicates that Kharg still processes close to nine‑tenths of Iran’s petroleum output, underscoring its role as both a revenue engine and a strategic liability for Tehran.

The Jask terminal, inaugurated in 2021, was intended to provide a Hormuz‑bypass outlet via the 1,000‑km Goreh‑Jask pipeline. In practice, the site operates at a fraction of its 1 million‑barrel‑per‑day design, with current throughput estimated around 350,000 barrels per day and storage facilities only partially completed. Nonetheless, the appearance of two VLCCs loading roughly 2 million barrels each in early March signals that Jask can accommodate very large carriers when needed. This limited but functional capacity gives Iran a modest hedge against disruptions at Kharg.

For oil traders and shipowners, the split in export routes translates into a nuanced risk profile. While Jask offers an alternative path that could keep a portion of shipments flowing if Hormuz closes, the overwhelming dependence on Kharg means that any significant attack would still curtail the majority of Iranian supply, potentially tightening global markets and raising premiums on Middle‑East crude. Investors therefore monitor both terminals closely, weighing the incremental resilience provided by Jask against the persistent vulnerability of Kharg, a balance that will shape Tehran’s bargaining power in future negotiations.