Analyst: Oil Price Surge May Reignite US InflationーNHK WORLD-JAPAN NEWS
Why It Matters
Sustained oil price spikes could reignite inflation, forcing the Fed to keep rates high and risking a slowdown in U.S. economic growth.
Key Takeaways
- •Oil price spike could lift US CPI by 0.6 points.
- •Daiwa analyst predicts CPI to hit 3% in March.
- •WTI crude surged from $67 to $119 per barrel in March.
- •Prolonged high oil prices may depress US economy by October.
- •Inflation pressure may force Fed to delay interest‑rate cuts.
Summary
The video examines how a sharp rise in crude oil prices could reignite U.S. inflation, featuring insights from Daiwa Institute senior researcher Yasaku Daisuke.
U.S. consumer‑price index rose 2.4% year‑over‑year in the first two months, with oil adding roughly 0.6 percentage points. Yasaku projects CPI to reach 3% in March as WTI jumped from about $67 to $119 per barrel after the Israel‑Iran strikes, while core CPI stayed flat.
Yasaku notes, “Oil prices drove up the overall rate by around 0.6 percentage points,” and points to historical episodes where WTI gains of over 50% for eight consecutive months depressed economic activity. He warns that if prices stay above $100 through October, the impact could be “majorly negative” for the U.S. economy.
The analysis suggests the Fed may find it harder to cut rates, as higher energy costs could sustain inflation and pressure corporate margins, potentially worsening employment prospects and slowing growth.
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