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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
UK fintech funding plunges 21% as rates hit 5.25%
Fintech investment in the UK fell 21% in 2025, driven by the Bank of England’s base rate climbing to 5.25%. Higher rates made government bonds more attractive, pulling capital from venture funds and limiting contributions from pension schemes, while softer consumer spending and loan demand pressured fintech valuations.
Amid the Iran‑Israel conflict, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have highlighted China's vulnerability to concentrated energy supplies. Beijing is turning to Latin America for food, copper, lithium and other strategic commodities to diversify its import base. The United States' attempts to curb Chinese influence in the western hemisphere face limited impact because Chinese demand for South American exports remains strong. Consequently, China is likely to deepen trade and selective investment in logistics, mining and agriculture across the region.
An attack on Saudi Arabia's East‑West pipeline knocked out roughly 700,000 barrels per day of throughput, tightening global oil supplies. Meanwhile, U.S. LNG exports surged to a record 43.3 million tonnes in March, driven by new projects and a redirection of...
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told ITV’s Talking Politics podcast he is "fed up" with UK energy bills swinging wildly because of actions by U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. He linked the volatility to recent oil‑price spikes...
Wall Street rallied after President Trump withdrew his dire Iran warning, propelling the Dow up 2.85% and the S&P 500 2.51%. The Bloomberg Billionaires Index recorded a $265 billion one‑day gain for the world’s 500 richest, the second‑largest since 2012. Meta CEO...
A fragile 14‑day cease‑fire in the Iran‑Israel conflict is under strain as Israel continues air strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon, rejecting Tehran’s claim that the truce covers the north. Pakistan is set to host the first round of negotiations in...
The latest U.S. data releases show personal income excluding transfers slipped 0.1% month‑over‑month, falling short of Bloomberg’s +0.4% consensus. February household consumption also edged lower than analysts expected. Both metrics are among the two primary series the NBER Business Cycle...
Iran attacked Saudi Arabia's strategic East‑West pipeline, knocking out about 700,000 barrels per day of capacity, and simultaneously struck the Manifa and Khurais production complexes, trimming Saudi output by roughly 600,000 barrels per day. The pipeline, which routes crude to...
Frankincense, a 6,000‑year‑old aromatic resin harvested from Boswellia trees across the Arabian Peninsula and Horn of Africa, is now caught in the fallout of the U.S.–Iran conflict. The war has heightened the risk of closing the Strait of Hormuz, prompting...
A tentative cease‑fire between the United States and Iran lifted some pressure on Asian equity markets on Wednesday. However, the rally was limited as Israel’s large‑scale strikes on Lebanon, which Tehran says breach the truce, kept regional tensions high. Major...
Canadian lenders advanced a record CAD 38.3 billion (~US$28 billion) in uninsured mortgages in January, a 3.3% year‑over‑year rise. Variable‑rate mortgages surged to roughly 45% of new funding, up sharply from a July 2023 low of 4.9%. The Bank of Canada’s October rate cut...
Oil prices closed up about 1% on Thursday, with Brent at $95.92 and WTI at $97.87, but both remained below the $100 barrier for a second day. The market initially spiked over 5% on doubts about the durability of the...
Kevin Hassett tells @MariaBartiromo the inflation from the oil-price shock will be temporary and should allow the Fed to continue cutting interest rates: "There are a lot of people who are currently at the Federal Reserve that understand that, that this...
The Substack post satirically examines how former President Donald Trump's hyperbolic threat to "destroy an entire civilization" could be interpreted by investors as a market risk. It references CNBC anchor Sara Eisen’s on‑air reaction and uses Star Wars imagery—short‑term out‑of‑the‑money...
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U.S. equity markets rallied on Thursday, with the Nasdaq up 0.8%, the S&P 500 up 0.6% and the Dow Jones gaining 0.6% and moving back into positive territory for the year. The bounce followed President Donald Trump’s announcement of a two‑week...
The United States and Iran agreed to a two‑week ceasefire on April 8, 2026, but Israel’s massive bombardment of Lebanon and Iran’s threats to close the Strait of Hormuz have already strained the truce. Oil prices surged, dragging down European...
U.S. equities closed higher on Thursday as emerging peace talks in the Middle East eased concerns over the fragile U.S.–Iran truce. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow all posted gains, with the S&P 500 reclaiming its 100‑day and 200‑day moving...
The International Monetary Fund and Sri Lankan authorities have reached a staff‑level agreement that will release about $700 million in financing under the Extended Fund Facility. The deal follows a 5% growth in 2025, a drop in inflation to 2.2% and...
U.S. mortgage rates jumped to 6.46% amid geopolitical tension, lifting yields on mortgage‑backed securities and tightening credit conditions for homebuyers. The surge reverses a brief decline that had raised hopes for a strong spring housing market in Greater Boston.
Iran’s deputy foreign minister Saeed Khatibzadeh announced a temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, accusing Israel of breaching the cease‑fire. The move pushed U.S. crude oil futures more than 5% higher after a 16% plunge the day before, reviving...
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted key inputs for food and beverage manufacturers, notably polyethylene and aluminum used in packaging, global fertilizer supplies, and freight costs driven by soaring oil prices. These shocks create three primary challenges:...
Morgan Stanley strategist Michelle Weaver discusses the mixed signals in U.S. consumer spending, noting that while overall spending remains positive, consumer confidence is slipping. Her AlphaWise survey shows a net spending outlook of +18% but a net confidence outlook of...
The episode covers the market reaction to Israel’s agreement to ceasefire talks with Lebanon, which pushed oil prices lower and boosted risk assets like the S&P 500 and the Australian and New Zealand dollars. ANZ economists explain how the Middle‑East conflict,...
Dr. David Kohl, a Virginia Tech agricultural economist, warns that the ongoing Middle East conflict—fueling gasoline at $4, diesel at $5, and oil at $100 a barrel—could trigger a global recession if it endures for 15 weeks. He notes that...
only 12% of europeans polled across six countries see the united states as a close ally. 36% see it as a threat.
In the 1970s, the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the father of @PahlaviReza, spoke about the Strait of Hormuz…. He was a strong ally of the United States until he was overthrown in 1979 by Ayatollah Khomeini… In this...
Demand for rare earth magnets has doubled since 2015, and the International Energy Agency projects a 30% increase by 2030. China now controls roughly 60% of mined production, over 90% of refining, and 95% of permanent‑magnet output, creating a single‑source...
Brazil is on track to exhaust its 1.106 million‑tonne beef export quota to China by early May as cattle prices hit a record R$365 (≈US$71.6) per arroba. March saw a historic 233,950 tonnes of fresh beef shipped, generating roughly R$7 billion (≈US$1.37 billion) in...
A Kyiv‑based study of over 1,000 Russian prisoners of war found that soldiers who embraced Kremlin propaganda were up to six times more likely to view the invasion as legitimate and nearly twice as likely to want to return to...
Mortgage rates edged lower on April 10, 2026, with the average 30‑year fixed rate slipping to 6.39%, a 0.02‑percentage‑point drop from the previous day. The modest decline followed headlines of de‑escalation in the Israel‑Lebanon conflict, which temporarily eased oil‑price concerns....
The World Bank projects India’s GDP growth at 6.6% for FY27, noting that the ongoing Gulf conflict could shave a few tenths off the outlook. It assumes oil prices of $90‑100 a barrel and expects growth to rebound to about...
Only five vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on April 9, far below Iran's pledge of at least fifteen ships during the two‑week ceasefire. The traffic level is a stark contrast to the pre‑war average of 130‑160 daily transits, highlighting...
The Reserve Bank of India has proposed eliminating the Investment Fluctuation Reserve (IFR), a 2% buffer that banks keep to absorb mark‑to‑market losses on bond holdings. By allowing the IFR balance to be re‑classified as Tier I capital, banks could transfer...
The U.S. equity market entered correction territory in March, with the Nasdaq Composite shedding more than 10 % from its February peak. Despite that decline, short‑term market timers stayed bullish, even after the Iran cease‑fire was announced. The expected “wall of...
🟥🟥🟥Official Source at the Ministry of Energy: Operational Activities Halted at Several Energy Facilities in the Kingdom due to Recent Attacks https://t.co/YhaVlatjkT Riyadh, April 9, 2026, SPA -- An official source at the Ministry of Energy stated that important energy facilities in...
The Dallas Fed trimmed mean inflation gauge suggests firm February PCE inflation reflected larger increases in a smaller subset of items. Trimmed mean PCE inflation printed at a 1.8% annualized rate in February. The 12-month reading fell to 2.3%, the lowest since...
U.S. consumer‑electronics imports are under pressure as 2025 saw a 2.2% drop in containerized shipments. Vietnam’s share of those imports climbed to 18.1% while China’s fell to 40.7%, reflecting a broader supply‑chain shift. At the same time, rising fuel prices...
Former British diplomat Alastair Crooke on Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz: "It's very clear that there's no way in which the Strait can be taken now." https://t.co/dYniHw5J0A
Sitting down with @notthreadguy for a live conversation about the Iran War, the "ceasefire", and what it all means for oil. Starting now, tune in!
U.S. equities rallied on Thursday as fresh Middle East peace talks eased geopolitical tension, lifting the Dow 0.65%, the S&P 500 0.50% and the Nasdaq 0.57%. The S&P 500 reclaimed both its 100‑day and 200‑day moving averages, a key technical...
If you routinely post a chart of the foreign holdings of US Treasuries but never post a chart of the foreign holdings of other global Sovereigns, you are missing the forest for the trees. https://t.co/GMjr60j0dV
The Feb PCE deflator - Fed's favorite inflation measure - held at 2.8% earlier. That's well above the 2.0% target...before energy prices sored. Tomorrow's March CPI update is expected to accelerate from 2.4% in Feb to 3.3%. Here's the #Dollar...
2026 is already tracking to be another abnormal year for PCE durables prices, up 1.5% since December, double the pace at this same point in 2025. Over the prior 5 non-pandemic years, durables prices were up 0.3% on average through...
"But what currency will replace the USD in global FX reserves?" -Question I've been asked repeatedly over the past 10 years. "No currency will...gold will." -My answer every time over those 10 years. What if the currency system...
Forcing everyone to secure their own resources takes us back about a century, triggering conflicts and competition over resource control. This move weakens America's global position... #geopolitics #trump #nato https://t.co/XjQdUuGG3H
Iran is charging up to $2M in Bitcoin to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This isn't a win it was literally free just a few weeks ago...
JPMorgan’s Bob Michele went on to say that the Fed’s 2% target is increasingly a “myth,” and that US central bankers are tacitly accepting a higher rate as acceptable. So even if inflation stays sticky, he doesn’t see rate hikes...
"Continuing Crisis in Strait of Hormuz: Why Iran’s Hold is Illegal and U.S. Military Force Alone Fails" https://t.co/h8YXNFL0Qe
The more "messy"/"inefficient" the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz is, the higher shipowners' profits are 🇮🇷🛢️🚢 @ed_fin on "Persian Gulf Traffic Jam" as tanker bull case: Apple🔊https://t.co/qUjYx8adg2 Spotify📽️https://t.co/07NUjj4n74 1/2 https://t.co/yWohqK1at9
CPI hedging dominating now after 30y auction. Crude driven headline expected to print at an eye-popping 0.9% so it will be up to core to save us
I'm not sure who needs to hear this but Iran's 15-ship daily limit isn't going to be 15 VLCCs each laden with 2 million barrels of oil.
