Know What's Happening in Global Economy
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Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
UK fintech funding plunges 21% as rates hit 5.25%
Fintech investment in the UK fell 21% in 2025, driven by the Bank of England’s base rate climbing to 5.25%. Higher rates made government bonds more attractive, pulling capital from venture funds and limiting contributions from pension schemes, while softer consumer spending and loan demand pressured fintech valuations.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted key inputs for food and beverage manufacturers, notably polyethylene and aluminum used in packaging, global fertilizer supplies, and freight costs driven by soaring oil prices. These shocks create three primary challenges: packaging material scarcity, higher raw‑material costs for grains and barley, and inflated transportation expenses. Supply‑chain leaders are urged to shift from prediction to scenario‑based planning, dynamically modeling outcomes to protect margins and shelf prices. Companies that diversify sourcing, time commodity purchases, and redesign product portfolios will emerge more resilient.
Morgan Stanley strategist Michelle Weaver discusses the mixed signals in U.S. consumer spending, noting that while overall spending remains positive, consumer confidence is slipping. Her AlphaWise survey shows a net spending outlook of +18% but a net confidence outlook of...
The episode covers the market reaction to Israel’s agreement to ceasefire talks with Lebanon, which pushed oil prices lower and boosted risk assets like the S&P 500 and the Australian and New Zealand dollars. ANZ economists explain how the Middle‑East conflict,...
Dr. David Kohl, a Virginia Tech agricultural economist, warns that the ongoing Middle East conflict—fueling gasoline at $4, diesel at $5, and oil at $100 a barrel—could trigger a global recession if it endures for 15 weeks. He notes that...
only 12% of europeans polled across six countries see the united states as a close ally. 36% see it as a threat.
In the 1970s, the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the father of @PahlaviReza, spoke about the Strait of Hormuz…. He was a strong ally of the United States until he was overthrown in 1979 by Ayatollah Khomeini… In this...
Demand for rare earth magnets has doubled since 2015, and the International Energy Agency projects a 30% increase by 2030. China now controls roughly 60% of mined production, over 90% of refining, and 95% of permanent‑magnet output, creating a single‑source...
Brazil is on track to exhaust its 1.106 million‑tonne beef export quota to China by early May as cattle prices hit a record R$365 (≈US$71.6) per arroba. March saw a historic 233,950 tonnes of fresh beef shipped, generating roughly R$7 billion (≈US$1.37 billion) in...
A Kyiv‑based study of over 1,000 Russian prisoners of war found that soldiers who embraced Kremlin propaganda were up to six times more likely to view the invasion as legitimate and nearly twice as likely to want to return to...
Mortgage rates edged lower on April 10, 2026, with the average 30‑year fixed rate slipping to 6.39%, a 0.02‑percentage‑point drop from the previous day. The modest decline followed headlines of de‑escalation in the Israel‑Lebanon conflict, which temporarily eased oil‑price concerns....
The World Bank projects India’s GDP growth at 6.6% for FY27, noting that the ongoing Gulf conflict could shave a few tenths off the outlook. It assumes oil prices of $90‑100 a barrel and expects growth to rebound to about...
Only five vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on April 9, far below Iran's pledge of at least fifteen ships during the two‑week ceasefire. The traffic level is a stark contrast to the pre‑war average of 130‑160 daily transits, highlighting...
The Reserve Bank of India has proposed eliminating the Investment Fluctuation Reserve (IFR), a 2% buffer that banks keep to absorb mark‑to‑market losses on bond holdings. By allowing the IFR balance to be re‑classified as Tier I capital, banks could transfer...
The U.S. equity market entered correction territory in March, with the Nasdaq Composite shedding more than 10 % from its February peak. Despite that decline, short‑term market timers stayed bullish, even after the Iran cease‑fire was announced. The expected “wall of...
🟥🟥🟥Official Source at the Ministry of Energy: Operational Activities Halted at Several Energy Facilities in the Kingdom due to Recent Attacks https://t.co/YhaVlatjkT Riyadh, April 9, 2026, SPA -- An official source at the Ministry of Energy stated that important energy facilities in...
U.S. consumer‑electronics imports are under pressure as 2025 saw a 2.2% drop in containerized shipments. Vietnam’s share of those imports climbed to 18.1% while China’s fell to 40.7%, reflecting a broader supply‑chain shift. At the same time, rising fuel prices...
U.S. equities rallied on Thursday as fresh Middle East peace talks eased geopolitical tension, lifting the Dow 0.65%, the S&P 500 0.50% and the Nasdaq 0.57%. The S&P 500 reclaimed both its 100‑day and 200‑day moving averages, a key technical...
The escalating conflict in Iran is pushing global oil prices higher, which in turn is inflating food costs worldwide. Simultaneously, a fertilizer shortage and mounting tariffs are tightening supply chains, threatening grocery bills for consumers. The article advises investors to...
Jobless claims remained exceptionally low, with initial filings edging up 16,000 to 219,000 and the four‑week moving average reaching 209,500. Continuing claims dropped sharply to 1.794 million, the lowest level in two years. Year‑over‑year figures showed a 1.8% decline in initial...
Stress levels in the financial markets have subsided a bit as the conflict in the Middle East enters its 5th week. Bonds and equities (and their vols) have moderated as the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz is ticking up...
The US‑Israeli war on Iran has ended, but it accelerated a shift toward a multipolar world order. The article separates the enduring world system—finance, energy and the nation‑state—from the evolving political order that arranges states. Scholars and think tanks from...
A surge of government and private capital is accelerating rare‑earth production outside China, creating a short‑term supply gap but setting the stage for potential oversupply by the 2030s. Analysts say demand growth and security concerns drive current shortages, while massive...
A two‑week ceasefire in the Iran conflict eased some macro‑economic gloom, but copper prices remain elevated, with the LME three‑month contract peaking at $14,527.50 per metric ton in January. China, the world’s biggest copper consumer, cut its refined copper imports...
Jet fuel prices have surged to about $209 per barrel, roughly double the level at the start of the war in the Middle East, prompting airlines to raise fares and ancillary fees. U.S. carriers such as Delta and United report...
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a plan to levy a 20% tariff on all automobiles imported from the European Union unless the bloc removes its own import duties and trade barriers on U.S. goods. The move follows heightened tensions with...
A new national web survey of 810 Americans reveals a nuanced view of U.S.-China trade. While a majority consider the relationship important (7.27/10), 59% label China’s trade practices unfair and 34% deem current trade inequitable. Partisan gaps are stark: Republicans...
The Latin America briefing reports a wave of political and economic shifts across the region. Colombia’s Petro administration is rolling out subsidies and cheap loans to counteract the central bank’s high‑interest rates, while Brazil’s Lula plans a working‑hours reduction bill....
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Open market operations (OMOs) are the Federal Reserve’s primary tool for adjusting the money supply by buying or selling Treasury securities. Permanent OMOs involve outright purchases or sales to shape long‑term rates, while temporary OMOs use repos and reverse repos...
Foreign portfolio investors have withdrawn ₹1.77 lakh crore in FY26, surpassing 2025 outflows. Zerodha co‑founder Nithin Kamath cited geopolitical tensions, rich valuations, limited AI opportunities, and tax changes as key deterrents. He warned that investor sentiment toward India has “pretty much died out,”...
Oil prices nudged higher on Thursday after a brief dip following a tentative cease‑fire between Iran and the United States. Brent crude settled around $96 a barrel, up roughly 30% since the conflict began, while U.S. WTI hovered near $98,...
Ukraine has moved from a war‑torn aid recipient to a sought‑after security provider, deploying drone specialists to five Middle Eastern countries and signing long‑term security pacts with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. The Gulf states are turning...
Markets remain incredibly sensitive to Middle East War headlines. Case in point: the latest Israel-Lebanon headlinea erased 4 percentage points of today’s oil price gains (CNBC chart below). Even more significantly, they took 8 basis points off the 10-year UK gilt...
Forcing everyone to secure their own resources takes us back about a century, triggering conflicts and competition over resource control. This move weakens America's global position... #geopolitics #trump #nato https://t.co/XjQdUuGG3H
Iran is charging up to $2M in Bitcoin to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This isn't a win it was literally free just a few weeks ago...
JPMorgan’s Bob Michele went on to say that the Fed’s 2% target is increasingly a “myth,” and that US central bankers are tacitly accepting a higher rate as acceptable. So even if inflation stays sticky, he doesn’t see rate hikes...
"Continuing Crisis in Strait of Hormuz: Why Iran’s Hold is Illegal and U.S. Military Force Alone Fails" https://t.co/h8YXNFL0Qe
The more "messy"/"inefficient" the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz is, the higher shipowners' profits are 🇮🇷🛢️🚢 @ed_fin on "Persian Gulf Traffic Jam" as tanker bull case: Apple🔊https://t.co/qUjYx8adg2 Spotify📽️https://t.co/07NUjj4n74 1/2 https://t.co/yWohqK1at9
CPI hedging dominating now after 30y auction. Crude driven headline expected to print at an eye-popping 0.9% so it will be up to core to save us
I'm not sure who needs to hear this but Iran's 15-ship daily limit isn't going to be 15 VLCCs each laden with 2 million barrels of oil.
The US Initial Jobless Claims just released at 219K, INCREASING from 203K the prior week. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN IS QUIETLY BLEEDING INTO THE US LABOR MARKET. https://t.co/Mab6oRpgWw
Remember the administration crowing when the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model said in early Jan that Q4 GDP growth was 5.4%? Latest official estimate: 0.5%. Moral: Ignore "tracking" models. And Trump's econ team.
Not good. “.. if payments accompanying 20% of the world’s oil and gas can move through a digital pipe that the US Treasury cannot see, then America’s dominance of global finance has effectively been handed an expiry date.” @opinion https://t.co/HhlUpqnmVF https://t.co/CE6vgUpJlz
At the start of @IMFNews and @WorldBank meetings @CGDev does a briefing for journalists on what are big questions and our take on them. This year we are opening this to the public. Come put your questions to experts...
So tomorrow Europe gets its last shipment of oil from the Strait of Hormuz. Based on that timing, if the Strait were to open tomorrow Europe's next oil shipment would come at the end of May. Reports are circulating that...
Thailand's March CPI is -0.08%/yr. That's the 12th consecutive month in DEFLATION. In the past 3 years, its money supply has grown BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 5.4-7.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting a 1-3%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY...
FEDWATCH: “Iran keeps leverage over the Strait without using significant military force .. gains its leverage from a flexible missile arsenal, remaining at ~1,500 missiles and ~200 launchers “Tomorrow’s CPI is therefore the kickoff for the macro effects as negotiations begin.”...
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025. That’s DOWN from 4.4% the prior quarter. TRUMP TARIFFS = ECONOMIC WRECKING BALL. https://t.co/Rm9so1qJXE
EU sounds the warning bell as countries face soaring energy prices https://t.co/c7S4lxI7D8 via @suzannelynch1 https://t.co/rMfXvLzmAu
Container Rates Rise Again as Fuel Costs, Hormuz Uncertainty Ripple Through Global Trade. Mixed results among trade lanes. Even the Transatlantic tradelane went up. https://t.co/wFdYFryl0O
Trump and the FED. They are fighting over interest rates. Trump wants them to go down drastically. The FED wants to keep them higher. Listen to Matthew Piepenburg his vision here: https://t.co/DjayphsEa4
