Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435B yen carry‑trade despite modest rate hike
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, underpinning a $435 billion carry‑trade between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate increase in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary of a sudden tightening that could force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
Foreign investors sold roughly $52 billion of Asian emerging‑market equities excluding China in March, the biggest monthly withdrawal on record. The outflow eclipses the 2020 pandemic sell‑off by 49% and the June 2022 Russia‑Ukraine war outflow by 148%, raising alarms about capital‑flow stability across the region.
FEDWATCH: “.. the Houthis have entered the conflict by launching ballistic missile attacks ..; their next move could be targeting vessels in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb into the Red Sea .. The oil market, rightfully, is sensing that...
JPMorgan chief strategist Oksana Aronov told CNBC the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower rates in the second half of 2026, arguing that the bar for any hike remains high. The comment comes as CME FedWatch data shows traders have...
🇺🇸 US inflation keeps rising. As long as the US-Iran conflict persists, inflation will likely stay elevated. https://t.co/LatxByAQYN
Australia faces a confluence of structural pressures: soaring house prices and rents have forced many households into high private debt, while energy costs and stagnant wages erode disposable income. A sizable public‑sector workforce and generous executive pay have entrenched a...
Brent crude has surged past $100 a barrel and WTI topped $90, creating a price environment that comfortably exceeds shale breakeven levels. Yet U.S. oil drillers remain hesitant, citing the ongoing Middle East conflict as a major obstacle to investment...
The war in Iran has set off a chain of events, with soaring oil prices driving higher inflation expectations, lower rate cut odds, and a pullback in precious metals.
China's cleantech exports are surging. A couple observations: 1. All of this is from before the US invasion of Iran and current oil price spike. We should expect these numbers to keep growing, especially EVs. 2. US tariffs haven't stopped China's...
The article argues that Western portrayals of the BRICS+ as a disjointed "bric-à-brac" underestimate its growing resilience, especially as India assumes the 2026 presidency amid heightened geopolitical tensions. Despite criticism over heterogeneity, the bloc is expanding its economic infrastructure through...
Iran announced it will clear twenty Pakistani‑flagged vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, allowing two ships per day after months of near‑total closure due to regional tensions. The move follows earlier passages of two tankers carrying roughly 500,000 and 600,000...
U.S. lawmakers are advancing a proposal to temporarily suspend the federal gasoline tax in response to soaring fuel costs, with crude oil prices climbing above $90 a barrel after the Iran conflict escalated. The move aims to ease pressure on...
The United Nations announced a new task force to safeguard Strait of Hormuz trade as two COSCO container ships were forced to retreat, and oil prices rose to their highest levels since 2022. The moves highlight mounting pressure on global...
The UK Treasury’s budget changes taking effect on April 6 eliminate full inheritance tax relief for AIM shares, cap agricultural property relief at £2.5 million, and raise dividend tax rates. The measures upend decades‑long planning for retirees, small‑business owners and asset‑rich families,...
Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s former shah, warned at a CPAC rally that negotiating with Iran’s current leaders would merely postpone threats to the United States. He urged Iranians to resume street protests and presented himself as the most...
Rising inflation and gas prices aren’t the only economic challenges arising from the Iran war. Mortgage rates have risen 4 weeks in a row since Trump started the conflict; the average 30-year rate is now 6.38%. @wsj
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has urged governments and consumers to slash energy use as the U.S.–Israeli attack on Iran fuels the biggest oil disruption in history, with the Strait of Hormuz closed for weeks. To blunt price spikes, the...
Despite talk of decentralisation, the US dollar continues to be the core reference point for both traditional foreign‑exchange markets and digital‑asset trading. In forex, the greenback anchors major currency pairs, risk sentiment and reserve holdings, while in crypto, prices, stablecoins...
American here, trying to understand: 6 years on, has Brexit had any real upside? Genuine question, please don't crucify me 😅 #Brexit #unitedkingdom #uk
U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to halt oil shipments to Cuba and a high‑level call involving Elon Musk, Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on keeping the Strait of Hormuz open have pushed global oil prices to multi‑year highs....
European benchmarks opened lower after mixed signals from the Iran‑Israel war pushed oil prices higher and heightened geopolitical risk. The slide reflects investor anxiety over a potential supply bottleneck at the Strait of Hormuz and its knock‑on effects on European...
The International Monetary Fund reached a staff‑level agreement with Pakistan, releasing a $1.2 bn tranche—$1.0 bn from the Extended Fund Facility and $210 m from the Resilience and Sustainability Facility. The deal is aimed at shoring up Pakistan’s balance‑of‑payments, stabilising the rupee and...
The last time we had a supply shock and oil prices rose - in 2022 - Italy and Spain got the ECB to cap their yields to survive and the UK bond market blew up in the LDI crisis. If...
India’s government warned that the ongoing war in Iran could dampen economic growth and widen the fiscal deficit as energy and shipping disruptions ripple through multiple sectors. The March economic review highlighted higher input costs and supply constraints as near‑term...
In 2024, formal remittances to Sub‑Saharan Africa reached about $100 billion, with Nigeria alone receiving roughly $21 billion—around 10 % of its GDP. Policymakers see the challenge of turning these consumption‑driven inflows into savings and investment, a task that hinges on scaling Africa’s...
Spain’s electricity market is insulated from the current European energy crunch thanks to a renewable‑heavy mix—almost 60% of its power comes from solar, wind and nuclear—keeping the average price at about €14/MWh (≈$15) versus over €100/MWh (≈$107) in Italy, Germany...
Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu ”Consumer sentiment fell back 6% this month to its lowest level since December 2025. Declines were seen across age and political party. Consumers with middle and higher incomes and stock wealth, buffeted by both escalating...
RBI has directed banks to reduce their holdings of Dollar (USD) positions. • RBI has set a maximum Net Open Position (NOP) limit of $100 million for banks. • This means banks can now hold no more than $100 million...
The ongoing conflict, likely the Russia‑Ukraine war, forces Beijing to reassess its strategic priorities beyond the immediate impact on oil supplies. While China’s partnership with Tehran remains limited by sanctions and diplomatic risk, the war highlights broader concerns about energy...
What was equally intriguing in Friday’s trading was the unhinging of the short end of the curve from the long end. The 2-yr yield fell by 7.4 bps to 3.91% while that of the benchmark 10-yr rose by 1.6 bps to...
The week ahead is dominated by central‑bank minutes and key data releases that could reshape monetary policy trajectories. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes reveal a hawkish tone after a 25‑basis‑point hike to 4.10%, while the Eurozone’s CPI flash jumps...
WTO e‑commerce moratorium may lapse: US/EU seek permanent exemption; some developing states oppose losing tariff revenue. Risk: higher digital trade costs, fragmentation. Trade: overweight big tech. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
the idea that the privilege of the reserve currency automatically guts the domestic industrial base was true when the world was globalizing, there was one supply chain, and the law of one price was intact. Those days are over....
International Monetary Fund: Global public debt has risen to a record level - nearly 100% of global GDP. https://t.co/H6FXJN78RZ
guy in the future: “So, how serious is this, on a scale of just noise to that time the Strait of Hormuz got closed?”
(1/2) I recall an interview after the 2008 crash where the late economist Anna Schwartz said she thought the market threw up its hands in confusion and crashed because the government was so inconsistent about which bank they saved and...
Thanks to Trump's war on Iran, Goldman Sachs concludes that the US economy will take A BIG HIT. It's time to start taking the 2nd President of the U.S. Thomas Jefferson's proclamation seriously: "I hold it that a little rebellion now...
$VIX 31. $SPY -3.4% YTD. Brent +47% monthly. 10Y at 4.44%. Gold $4,439. If you're waiting for confirmation that something broke — this is the confirmation. The question is what breaks next. https://t.co/SxUUBm3sBm
Higher average per capita incomes in the US are down to the divergence of the top 10 percent of the income distribution from the rest of the US and the rest of the world. More on this in the Chartbook...
10Y yield at 4.44%. Highest since July 2025. Rates rising while growth fears mount. $TLT sellers and $SPY sellers agree on one thing: neither wants to own the future right now. That's a problem. https://t.co/lYjNri1VOz
Ceasefire hopes faded. Trump extended the Iran deadline 10 days. Brent crude didn't flinch at $112. $VIX held above 30. The market priced in peace and got more war. That repricing has further to go. https://t.co/e3sUJyyL7v
Trump as the grand old Duke of York, who marches oil up the hill and then marches it down again. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/SmXQ2Cvd7I
This is why socialist economies eventually restrict capital outflows and then human capital outflows. https://t.co/tWTL8I6DWU
The Iran War has wiped $12 TRILLION from global markets; more than the entire economies of Germany, Japan, and the UK combined. https://t.co/lHkpoJl7xf
As reported by the respected French newspaper Le Monde, EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen considers capping gas prices "a possibility" amid oil shortages. IT'S TIME FOR THE EU'S JORGENSEN TO GET REAL AND PULL OUT A PHOTO OF THE GAS LINES...
Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed that the US would have this war finished up soon: “As the Department of War has consistently outlined, we are ahead of schedule. We expect it concluded… in a matter of weeks.” THAT'S BECAUSE THERE IS...
My video for the week ahead: Market Volatility Faces New Test as Liquidity Drops and Data Builds (recorded before Friday's US tumble so even more relevant) https://t.co/fPTls4gx6p
Russia’s oil revenue this month hit a 4-year HIGH. RUSSIA = THE BIG WINNER OF THE TRUMP-NETANYAHU WAR ON IRAN. https://t.co/nMT8IvrNZc
And just like that, a quarter of global LNG supply is offline 🚢 ⚠️ Hormuz/Iran attacks have disrupted deliveries from Qatar and UAE Cyclone temporarily knocks out plants in Western Australia (Nice graphic from IEA’s Greg Molnar) https://t.co/ymJmTrTZGx
Israel’s attack on Iran while there were attempts at “peace” negotiations may have compounded the supply chain and maritime problems that are bordering on supply and economic catastrophe. IMHO
Wonderful to catch up with @RaniaAlMashat in NYC to talk about the latest in today’s energy crisis, and particularly the painful ripple effects for emerging and developing economies. https://t.co/2BIKAy4nXD
