Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435B yen carry‑trade despite modest rate hike
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, underpinning a $435 billion carry‑trade between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate increase in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary of a sudden tightening that could force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
HistoryLegends’ YouTube analysis outlines three Pentagon amphibious options against Iran: seizing Kharg Island, which is high‑risk and low‑reward; capturing Qeshm Island to dominate the Strait of Hormuz but risking mission creep; and landing in Chabahar Bay, where the U.S. holds air and naval superiority and could enlist the local Baloch minority. The blog criticizes the Trump administration for lacking a coherent strategy, asserting they believe they are winning despite domestic media and political dissent.
The Houthis of Yemen have entered the war, claiming the launch of a ballistic missile against Israel. The more important aspect of their involvement is whether they try to disrupt traffic in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, effectively jeopardising Saudi efforts...
I’m sure higher energy prices, higher interest rates, and ongoing wars will go a long way in solving the problem of getting mines to produce the metals we desperately need. The world still underestimates the scale of the problem: A lack of...
Environmental activists have condemned the U.S.–Indonesia trade agreement signed on Feb. 19, saying it paves the way for expanded mining and fossil‑fuel extraction in Indonesia. The deal, valued at $33 billion, includes provisions that could loosen export bans on raw minerals and...
India's foreign exchange reserves fell $11.4 bn to $698 bn in the week ended March 20, driven by a $13.5 bn plunge in gold holdings as global prices slipped 10%. The decline pushed the rupee to fresh record lows and raised questions about the...
Indonesia’s growth outlook is being squeezed by three simultaneous shocks – looming sovereign‑rating downgrades, renewed US trade friction and a fuel crisis sparked by the Iran war. Analysts warn the combined impact could stall the country’s 8% growth target and...
British government bonds have taken the hardest hit in the global bond market rout, with 10‑year gilt yields breaching 5% for the first time since the 2008 crisis. The surge follows heightened geopolitical risk from the Iran‑Israel war and a...
A market alert warning of a $930 million hit to the quantum‑computing sector has pushed IonQ, Rigetti and D‑Wave shares down. The warning stems from a helium supply crunch caused by the Iran‑U.S. conflict, which threatens the low‑temperature environments needed for...
Note sent to clients. Overall macro synthesis and update based on war related conditions impact and pricing. What we are doing about it is for clients only. Based on all things happening in the world my macro view is...
The analysts forecast the S&P 500 could slip to around 5,500 within the next 12 months, implying a 20‑25% correction. A deeper, systemic issue is the ongoing decline in global liquidity, which is reflected in both broad and market‑specific liquidity indices....
Macro: Windsor's slump signals USMCA uncertainty. Key: tariff threats, cross‑border exposure, falling orders. Risk: demand pullback. Trade insight: trim Canada auto-supply positions. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
The author warns that escalating geopolitical tensions, notably the war in Iran, are pushing oil prices higher and reigniting inflation fears. This feedback loop is driving interest‑rate volatility, with the U.S. 2‑year Treasury yield jumping 30 basis points in two...
Gulf tensions rise, hitting flows. Maersk halted Salalah after crane damage; 48h outage. Risk: supply delays, Strait Hormuz disruption. Trade: hedge shipping via freight volatility. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
John Keegan’s 'The Face of Battle' is a masterpiece of war literature. He moves from Agincourt to Waterloo, then the Somme, showing the shift from a small hand-to hand battlefield to a larger area defined by the range of cannon...
Sony announced a temporary suspension of orders for almost all SD and CFexpress memory cards due to a worldwide semiconductor shortage. Prices have tripled, tightening supply for AI data centers and consumer electronics across emerging markets.
The Iran‑Israel‑U.S. war has pushed Brent crude to about $120 a barrel, shut 20% of global oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz and sparked warnings that soaring energy costs could tip the United States toward recession. The crisis is...
Israel carried out a precision strike that killed IRGC Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri, intensifying the ongoing Iran‑Israel war. The hit follows a series of high‑profile Iranian leader assassinations and has prompted Tehran to vow retaliation, while oil prices have surged...
The BSE Sensex slid 1,690 points (2.25%) to 73,583 and the NSE Nifty dropped 487 points (2.09%) to 22,820 as the US‑Iran conflict pushed Brent crude above $100 a barrel. Foreign Institutional Investors dumped roughly Rs 1,805 cr crore (≈ $217 million) of Indian...
China’s electric‑vehicle market now commands over half of new car sales, propelling record‑high export volumes that generated a $1.2 trillion trade surplus. Yet most of those earnings sit offshore, creating a hidden domestic dollar shortage that hampers imports and weakens internal...
At the WTO’s 14th ministerial conference in Yaoundé, India’s Rashtriya Kisan Mahasangh urged members to make the TRIPS non‑violation complaint moratorium permanent. The group argues that ending the moratorium would raise prices for agro‑chemicals and veterinary medicines, threatening small‑holder livelihoods...
The Iran war has triggered a synchronized downturn in global business sentiment, with purchasing‑manager indexes falling across Australia, India, Europe and the United States. Surging oil prices are driving the fastest input‑cost inflation in Germany in three years and pushing...
The 1973‑74 Arab oil embargo and the 1978‑79 Iranian revolution caused oil prices to quadruple, triggering severe gasoline shortages and reshaping global financial markets. Those shocks redirected capital flows and solidified the U.S. dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency....
Markets have been rattled by global uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, creating sharp swings that keep investors wary. Sameer Dalal, CEO of Natverlal & Sons Stockbrokers, advises against panic selling and suggests a measured entry, allocating only 10‑15% of the intended...
Oil prices surged after the United States and Israel struck Iranian nuclear sites, with Brent climbing 4.2% to $112.57 a barrel and WTI jumping 5.5% to $99.64. At the same time, equity markets slipped, the S&P 500 closing 1.7% lower and...
Good Damien Ma piece on Xi Jinping's efforts to shift the Chinese economy from extensive growth (generate growth by increasing labor, capital and resource inputs) to intensive growth (generate growth by using labor, capital and resource inputs more efficiently). For...
The European Commission has finalized trade agreements with Mercosur, India and Australia, keeping a defensive stance on beef while pushing an offensive agenda for wine, cars and other high‑value products. In the Australia deal, the EU granted a 30,600‑tonne beef...
China will open nickel and lithium futures to foreign investors, aiming to strengthen global metals pricing power. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/china-nickel-and-lithium-futures.html
The International Monetary Fund and Pakistan have reached a staff‑level agreement that will make roughly $1.2 billion available to Islamabad, comprising $1 billion under the Extended Fund Facility and $210 million under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility. The deal awaits IMF Executive Board...
Russia’s economy has shown unexpected resilience after the Ukraine invasion, climbing to the world’s ninth‑largest by 2025 thanks to soaring oil revenues and a war‑driven fiscal boost. Sanctions were largely circumvented, with China becoming its top trading partner and state‑controlled...
Despite ongoing Middle East tensions that have heightened market volatility, global growth signals remain intact. U.S. business investment intentions are improving, with a notable tilt toward AI‑related capital expenditures. Meanwhile, the U.S. consumer continues to spend robustly even as energy...
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The weekend wrap surveys the fallout from the Iran‑Israel conflict, flagging that no party truly wins as regional instability spikes. In South Africa, court appearances by Vusimuzi “Cat” Matlala and revelations of a Brian Molefe slush fund revive the state‑capture narrative,...
India is deliberately staying out of the Iran‑Israel war, opting for quiet diplomacy rather than acting as a broker. New Delhi cites its strategic‑autonomy doctrine, preferring flexible, low‑visibility engagement over high‑risk mediation. The decision is driven by massive economic stakes...
@KirkusReviews , 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰 𝐦𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐳𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 1933, 𝐰𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚’𝐬 90% 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥. Kirkus describes the book as “𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐚𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐮𝐧𝐬𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐧𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚’𝐬 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐲𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐤.” The review highlights how China has built industrial capacity to meet 90%...
“complete loss of confidence” = USD crashes with stocks with bonds. My MONEY GOES HOME™️ warning. A slower crash is what we have now: Higher Oil -> Higher Dollar, Yields, USDJPY -< Lower Equities & Bonds
Very early on the war I wrote about SaudiArabia’s crucial East-West oil pipeline (see 👇). Now, the conduit has reached its nameplate capacity of 7 million b/d, wit exports from the Saudi Red Sea coast to global markets >5 million...
The US' Achilles heel in this conflict - much as in the tariff confrontation with China a year ago - is financial markets. Those are flashing red as uncertainty mounts. We have lots of skeletons in the closet in private...
What better way to begin the weekend with a podcast exploring -- hopefully in plain English -- the economic consequences of the war with Iran. https://t.co/e6xz6fn92u
Many are attributing the fall in precious metals to rising real interest rates. That's wrong. Real rates (red) have fallen. The rise in nominal interest rates (black) is all about break-even inflation (blue) rising. That's fundamentally good for gold... https://t.co/5amZtGPz0B https://t.co/t11fMQc7JV
Many things are happening simultaneously. War in the Middle East is spiking oil prices, gold has fallen and all the uncertainty is pushing up long bond yields, like in Japan where they're back to the highs. I'll talk about all...
New monthly drops. https://t.co/FItBCcQzTd Trade wars, kinetic wars, and anticipated policy responses ripple through the capital markets. Optimism of short war contrasts with pricing in aggressive CB policy. https://t.co/qPeHeyxa7a
I joined Zanny Minton Beddoes on @TheEconomist’s Insider show for a conversation on the impact of the war in the Middle East on Europe and its economy, and the key challenges Europe faces in today’s fast-moving global environment. Watch an excerpt...
Many such cases 🇺🇸 🚢 Asian and European LNG buyers are chasing the limited number of shipments still available from US suppliers after the world’s largest export plant in Qatar was shut Importers from Japan and Germany are among those in...
With Houthis entering the war, Cape of Good Hope may soon be the Cape of Only Hope. Countries already facing physical energy shortages are staring at even longer transport schedules, and higher costs. Some useful background from 2024 here: https://t.co/K1abD0tYoN.
UK inflation could undershoot its 2% target if the BOE raises rates as much as financial markets currently expect, according to a Barclays analysis based on forecasting assumptions used by the central bank https://t.co/vOjS0R1gt1 via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/FRWivDYG3b
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: It's hard to beat gold as a central bank reserve. Turkey is reportedly using its HOARD of gold reserves in swap operations to obtain liquidity and defend the Turkish Lira. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/rVUGXc6WeD
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Japanese investment in India’s financial sector has hit a RECORD HIGH. In 2025, Japanese firms invested $8.8 BILLION in Indian businesses. That’s FOUR TIMES the amount invested in 2024. GOOD NEWS FOR INDIA. MORE FDI = MORE GROWTH. https://t.co/C27VI2pF62
Thailand has reached a deal with Iran to allow Thai tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. “An agreement has been reached to allow Thai oil tankers to transit safely through the Strait of Hormuz," Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said...
Hormuz oil "We don't have any alternatives at all, and we should not talk about alternatives," says @asasalhajii Any questions? No. Now, what should we talk about? #Oil #Energy #Reality #Geopolitics
How Trump’s Tariffs Are Choking U.S.-China Trade—Chinese share of American imports drops to lowest level since 2001, but overall U.S. goods trade deficit rises @hannahmiao_ @CloudberryRoque https://t.co/tWBXJwnAkx https://t.co/tWBXJwnAkx
No military operation or policy can replace 20% of global oil supply At some point, price stops listening to narratives, says @JasonBordoff End of discussion #Oil #EnergyMarkets #Hormuz #Geopolitics
