Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435B yen carry‑trade despite modest rate hike
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, underpinning a $435 billion carry‑trade between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate increase in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary of a sudden tightening that could force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
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The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures price changes at the wholesale level, capturing the cost producers receive for goods and services. It is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and is broken into crude, intermediate, and core (finished‑goods) indexes, with the core version stripping out food and energy volatility. Because PPI movements typically occur before consumer‑price changes, analysts view it as a leading gauge of future CPI trends and potential monetary‑policy shifts. The index therefore helps investors and policymakers anticipate inflation pressures across the supply chain.
Macro: Tadawul -0.13%; financials, real estate & retail lag. Oil jump (Brent $105) and firmer USD drive divergence. Risk: oil volatility, FX swings. Trade: buy energy exporters. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
The international fallout from the Hormuz crisis and its unintended consequences have me wondering: Is this another global experiment? And if it is, do we have to wait until all the results are collected? I am just asking a question. ...
Former U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai announced that the six‑year USMCA review will be a pivotal moment for North American trade, aiming to embed supply‑chain resilience, AI, climate and digital trade provisions. The review also focuses on automotive rules of...
Stagflationary winds and the biggest monthly loss for the classic 60/40 investment portfolio since 2022, the global economic and financial fallout of the Middle East War are tangible. This week’s data deluge will help us assess how much resilience remains in...
This week is packed with market moving data but Iran War will remain a key focus 👇 🇺🇸 US -Retail Sales -Non-Farm Payrolls -ADP -Chicago PMI -ISM Mfg -Confidence -Trade 🇪🇺 EZ -EZ CPI & GE CPI -Confidence -GE Retail Sales -GE Unemployment 🇬🇧 UK -GDP 🇨🇦 CA -GDP -Trade 🇦🇺 AU -RBA Minutes -Trade 🇯🇵 JP -CPI -Retail Sales -Tankan
The U.S. Federal Maritime Commission says China has sharply increased detentions of Panama‑flagged vessels after Panama voided Hong Kong‑based CK Hutchison’s port concessions. The move threatens a sizable share of U.S. container trade and could spark broader commercial fallout.
Back in 2010 on @cnbc , I warned that the American empire was entering a phase of rapid decline, and that Eastern powers would rise to fill the vacuum. 📉That forecast is now unfolding in real time. This isn’t hindsight....
Meanwhile, the conflict in Iran has already wiped about $12 trillion off global markets. Many investors are selling off assets due to the risk of escalation and rising oil prices. As a result, the total capitalization of the global stock market...
Oil prices broke the $100‑a‑barrel barrier as renewed Iran‑U.S. hostilities forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and threatened the Bab el‑Mandab corridor. The supply squeeze is inflating import bills for emerging‑market economies while boosting revenue for oil exporters.
Israel's central bank is poised to keep its policy rate at 4% as the Iran‑Israel war enters its fifth week, stoking inflation concerns. The bank will also publish its first post‑conflict economic projections, a move that could shape shekel dynamics...
An Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon killed three journalists covering the war, a development that comes as the United States deploys thousands of Marines to the region and regional powers gather in Pakistan to discuss a diplomatic path forward. The...
Larry Kudlow appeared on multiple Fox Business programs on March 27, 2026, warning that escalating Iran tensions could spark volatility in U.S. equities while noting a rally in energy stocks. His commentary set the tone for investors watching the S&P...
The BSE Sensex slid 10.5% to 73,583 and the NSE Nifty fell 10.5% to 22,820 in March, marking the steepest monthly decline since the COVID‑19 crash. The rout was driven by heightened US‑Iran hostilities, soaring oil prices and record foreign...
The United States and Israel’s recent military actions against Iran have sparked a broader geopolitical and economic backlash, threatening the stability of Western fiat currencies. Iran’s warning to Gulf states to shut down U.S. bases adds pressure to an already...
Looks like next week is heading towards the bear case scenario I highlighted in my weekly report. Bear case (35% probability): The April 6 deadline produces strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Iran retaliates against Saudi or UAE oil facilities. Brent breaks...
India’s external sector is under strain as merchandise exports slipped 0.8% year‑on‑year while imports surged 24.1%, driven largely by gold and silver purchases. The trade deficit more than doubled to roughly $27.1 billion in February 2026, widening the current‑account gap to...
Prediction markets are evolving from merely forecasting outcomes to pricing the timing and sequence of macro‑shocks. Recent geopolitical tension, oil spikes and a five‑week equity sell‑off provide a backdrop, while ICE’s $600 million investment in Polymarket signals mainstream acceptance. Markets now...
The Finance Ministry’s latest Monthly Economic Review warns that sustained crude‑oil price hikes could dampen India’s remittance inflows, which rose to $36.9 billion in Q3 FY26. Gulf Cooperation Council nations, accounting for about 38% of total remittances, face fiscal strain from...
Deputy Executive Secretary Mama Keita opened the 2026 Committee of Experts, emphasizing the theme “Growth through innovation: harnessing data and frontier technologies for economic transformation in Africa.” She highlighted that while Africa’s GDP has averaged 3.5% growth since 2000, productivity gains...
South India is positioned to drive India’s march toward a $5‑10 trillion economy, according to CII Southern Region chairman P Ravichandran at the Kochi convention. The six southern states generate roughly 38‑40% of the nation’s merchandise exports, about $124 billion, and have been...
One month after the U.S.-Israeli strike campaign against Iran, President Donald Trump is wrestling with two stark choices: negotiate a rapid exit or intensify military action that could drag the United States into a prolonged conflict. Iran’s missile and drone...
Iran warned it will target the Bab al‑Mandeb Strait—dubbed the "Gate of Tears"—if the United States deploys ground troops, adding a potential second choke point to the Middle‑East conflict. The Iran‑aligned Houthi rebels have already demonstrated the ability to strike...
EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic confirmed progress on a critical minerals agenda and a resolution of tariff disputes with the United States. Both sides settled on a 15% import tariff for most EU goods, halving the rate previously threatened by...
The President of South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa; “Higher fuel prices will affect every sector, beginning the 1st of April we are going to see a spike in fuel prices” “𝗜𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗹𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗽𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗹𝗲”
German chemical giants such as BASF, Covestro and Evonik announced price increases of up to 5% for a range of products. The hikes come as the Israel‑Iran conflict tightens supply chains, raises energy costs and limits feedstock imports. Companies cite...
The NSE Nifty slipped 2.09% to 22,819.60, trading below its 21‑hour EMA as bearish momentum builds. A month‑long Iran‑Israel conflict has driven WTI crude to $101 per barrel and Brent to $115, stoking global inflation worries. Indian equities faced heavy...
The upside to Japan’s risk aversion – ample petroleum reserves The Yen has weakened against the US$ since the Iran war drove the oil price higher, but so too has the AU$. Japan imports most of its energy needs, so a...
The Dollar downtrend has now been meaningfully disrupted. But that doesn't mean it's over. As soon as this war ends - and it must because of the midterms - Dollar weakness will reassert itself. EM commodity exporters like Brazil will...
The month‑long Iran war has stripped about $100 billion from the market value of leading luxury groups, with LVMH and Hermès shares falling 16% and 20% respectively. Analysts warn the hit could depress quarterly growth and deepen the sector’s bearish sentiment.
Robust consumer spending on manicures, haircuts, and dog daycare is FORCING services inflation to 3.3%/yr. That's stubbornly above the Fed's 2%/yr target. THE US WILL NEVER GET THE INFLATION GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/YhMhZTG7Gl
3m10y yield spread 71bps... highest since July 2022... time to step out on the duration-risk curve? $AGG https://t.co/ozSwbxzLA4
Costco announced its first standalone gasoline station in Mission Viejo, California, slated for public opening by the end of June, with a second site planned for Honolulu in 2027. The move comes as national gasoline prices edge toward $4 per...
There's lots of misinformation at the moment, including the idea that big Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia are having to sell gold. Saudi Arabia's revenues from oil exports are actually up, because the rise in oil prices more than offsets...
Hard to think of a more important map than this right now, featured on today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/qA2ezld5Aa
A recurrent theme since war began is that central banks are selling gold. That's mostly not true, but there is one central bank that did. Turkey's gold holdings have fallen 50 tons in recent weeks. But Turkey is an outlier...
About to be on @BloombergTV's "Bloomberg This Weekend" with @davidgura @EenaRuffini @LisaMateoTV to talk about the #IranWar and Secretary of State Marco Rubio's visit to France for the #G7
Immigrants weren’t just filling existing jobs; they were helping create them. That’s Econ 101: jobs are not a fixed pie. More people means more customers, more demand, more businesses expanding, and yes, more hiring. https://t.co/TuC32PJmUk
As the outbreak of a regional war disrupts global energy markets for the second time in four years, oil & gas importing countries will be motivated to find alternatives; coal, nuclear, renewables and EVs alike, as @bradplumer & Rebecca Elliott...
The foreign affairs ministers of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt are gathering in Islamabad today for urgent talks as they try to mediate between the US and Iran.
The Implicate Order is the portfolio Bohm's undivided whole isn't philosophy — it's how Oil, Dollar, Bond Yields, and Equity Sectors move together inside a single Quad The Macro Tourist sees separate assets. The Fractal Mathematician sees...
Eurozone borrowing costs soar on fears of fiscal hit from Iran shock via @FT https://t.co/QuVa5RF5wm
Bulgaria’s FORCED ADOPTION of the Euro was supposed to benefit Bulgaria. Instead, inflation sits at 3.32%/yr, WELL ABOVE the ECB's 2%/yr inflation target. As the Father of Bulgaria’s currency board, I predicted this. https://t.co/c3KVbZZNxx
Half the annual borrowing in half the year is completely in line with estimates. A crisis may also need additional borrowing, let's see. Rbi will also announce a pay out soon and the balance sheet is way too large, hope...
Vietnam's macro situation is so impressive. And To Lam seems to be more of a reformer than I initially thought. https://t.co/pKtcfrLTG6
See how global government debt reached $111 trillion in 2025, with the U.S. and China together accounting for over half the total. https://t.co/rKkfcrsNdf via @visualcap
"Because workers are paid less than the total value they produce, they eventually cannot afford to buy back the goods they have created. This leads to a glut in the market, falling prices, factory closures, and mass unemployment." Karl Marx was...
India taking market share in almost every global industry, e.g. electronics, machinery and offshore services https://t.co/oP7wSlNcF0
Japan’s inflation eases to 1.26%/yr in February, BELOW its inflation target of 2%/yr. Japan’s money supply (M2) is growing at 1.73%/yr, WELL BELOW Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of ~6.07%/yr, consistent w/ Japan’s 2%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY...
In fairness this means the Houthis are also considering not closing the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, guys. https://t.co/ZiiVU0cw8C
