Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Big Take: Taking Stock of Jerome Powell as Fed Chair (Podcast)
Jerome Powell’s eight‑year term as Federal Reserve chair concludes this week, prompting Bloomberg’s Big Take podcast to assess his legacy. Host David Gura and Fed correspondents Catarina Saraiva and Amara Omeokwe dissect the central bank’s low‑inflation success, the aggressive rate‑hiking cycle, and the policy missteps that marked the period. The discussion also explores how Powell’s exit could reshape the Fed’s future direction. Listeners gain a concise recap of the key achievements and controversies that defined Powell’s tenure.
Fed Balance Sheet Can Only Be Reduced by Eliminating Interest on Reserves
Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh wants a smaller balance sheet, but the net size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is largely dictated by the target Fed Funds rate. During the pandemic the Fed bought $9 trillion of securities and used...
China's Solar Boom Has Created a Massive Oversupply Problem
China now produces more than twice the global demand for solar components, driving a price war that has left many manufacturers indebted. Industry leaders and the government have convened to launch a $7 billion buy‑out of inefficient plants, impose capacity caps,...
Putin’s Shadow Fleet Faces Fresh EU Sanctions Blitz
The European Union is preparing its 21st sanctions package, slated for late June or early July, to clamp down on Russia's shadow fleet of opaque tankers that move Kremlin oil worldwide. The draft also expands to Russian banks, military‑industrial firms,...
Gold Volatility Spike Signals Impending Stock Market Downturn
Hoping This Indicator Is Wrong? Gold Volatility Extreme peaks in gold vs. S&P 500 volatility have a tendency to front-run drawdowns in the US stock market. Is it different this time? My graphic of the spread between gold and SPX volatility...
Modi Urges Frugal Habits to Strengthen Indian Rupee
🚨Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s message to help Indian currency🚨 ❌ Do not purchase gold for a year. ❌Asked companies to promote work-from-home. ❌ Travel through public transport - Metro/Bus, Save petrol and diesel. ❌ Avoid foreign travels & destination weddings. ❌ Avoid foreign brands, rather...
‘Matter Of When’: Core CPI, Real Spending On Borrowed Time
U.S. inflation data this week is set to show headline CPI climbing 0.6% month‑over‑month, the quickest rise since October 2022, while core CPI is expected to increase 0.3%, roughly half the headline pace. The surge is tied to lingering energy‑price...
Trump’s Age of Uncertainty
Kevin Hassett, former White House Council of Economic Advisers chief, publicly blamed Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell for creating political conflicts that diverge from the Fed’s mandate. He also defended the Fed’s independence by citing an Inspector General investigation into a...
Mission Impossible
The article challenges Kevin Warsh’s claim that the Federal Reserve can remain independent under a Trump administration, arguing that political pressure makes true autonomy impossible. It highlights core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation, now 0.6 percentage points above its April 2025...
Iran Conflict Triggers Recession, Accelerates Renewable Shift
principal near term impact of ongoing iran war: global recession. bad for everyone. principal long term impact of ongoing iran war: end of opec, faster move away from oil & gas towards post-carbon renewables. good for everyone, especially china.
European Stocks Slip 0.7% as Gulf Clashes Spur Energy‑Driven Sell‑off
Pan‑European equities fell 0.7% on Friday, with the Stoxx 600 closing at 612.14 points and Britain’s FTSE 100 slipping 0.4% to 10,233.07. The decline was sparked by fresh clashes in the Strait of Hormuz, rising Brent crude above $101 a...
IMF Approves $1.32 Bn Package for Pakistan, Relieving Rupee Pressure
The International Monetary Fund cleared a $1.32 bn financing package for Pakistan, unlocking $1.1 bn from the Extended Fund Facility and $220 m from the Resilience and Sustainability Facility. The disbursement is expected to shore up foreign‑exchange reserves and temper recent rupee volatility.
Trump Urges China to Buy US Energy as Iran War Spikes Oil Prices and Fed Faces Pressure
President Donald Trump is set to ask Chinese President Xi Jinping to increase purchases of American oil and gas at a May summit, leveraging the Iran‑related Strait of Hormuz shutdown that has pushed U.S. gasoline prices above $4 per gallon....
Warsh Nomination Could Shrink Fed Balance Sheet, Lift Bond Yields
President Donald Trump nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve. Warsh’s known preference for a rapid balance‑sheet reduction could force the Fed to sell trillions of Treasury bonds, pushing yields up...
Buy Asian Cyclical Exporters on Trade‑talk Dip
US–China trade talks in S.Korea (May 12–13) signal detente; risk if talks falter. Trade insight: buy Asian cyclical exporters on dip. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Spirit Airlines' Collapse Highlights Jet Fuel Price Shock and $500 M Bailout Failure
Spirit Airlines halted all flights on May 2, 2026, after jet fuel costs surged to $4.51 per gallon—more than double its $2.24‑per‑gallon budget—while a proposed $500 million federal bailout was rejected by bondholders Citadel and Ares Management. The abrupt shutdown threatens jet‑fuel demand...
Phl, ASPAC Face Food Security Shock
The Asian Development Bank warns that the Middle‑East conflict is creating a new food‑security shock in the Asia‑Pacific by driving up fuel, freight and fertilizer prices. Higher input costs are already squeezing farmers, raising production and retail food prices, and...
Hard Times
The Philippines is grappling with a stagnant 2.8% GDP growth rate and a 7.2% inflation surge, the highest in years. Food prices are climbing sharply, with rice inflation at 13.7% and overall food inflation at 6.1%, disproportionately hurting the poorest...
Government Debt Payments Dip to P169 Billion in March
The Philippines’ Treasury reported that government debt service fell 7.8% in March, settling ₱169.09 billion (≈ $2.8 billion) versus ₱183.36 billion a year earlier. The drop was driven by a 23.7% decline in amortization payments, while interest outlays rose 9.4% to ₱96.38 billion (≈ $1.6 billion). Despite...
China, US Confirm Seoul Trade Talks Days Before Trump-Xi Summit in Beijing
Chinese Vice‑Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet in Seoul for the final round of trade talks before President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump convene in Beijing. The talks follow a Paris round in March...
Bloomberg This Weekend: Iran Responds to US Proposal (Podcast)
Iran’s state news agency confirmed it has replied to the latest U.S. proposal aimed at ending a ten‑week war, though details remain undisclosed. Acceptance could halt hostilities that have driven regional instability and pushed global energy prices higher, while negotiations...
Conditioned to Borrow, Not Save
Steve Keen and Phil Dobbie argue that global policy since the 1980s has deliberately tilted incentives toward borrowing rather than saving. They trace deregulation, tax breaks for mortgages and student loans, and ultra‑low interest rates as catalysts for a permanent...
Oil Inventories Plummet, Looming Shortage Will Trigger Price Spike
The world is burning through oil inventories at the fastest pace on record. Since the US-Israeli war on Iran began, stockpiles have fallen by 4.8 million barrels per day, exceeding the peak COVID drawdown. Once inventories run dry, we will switch from...
Markets Surge Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Key Economic Data
Please find below the links to my weekly look at the global economy and markets. It's a busy week ahead: As equity markets scale record heights and the Strait of Hormuz blockades continue amid geopolitical instability and supply-side disruptions, look also this...
China Weekly Wrap: Export Surprise Edition
China’s April export data surprised to the upside, rising 14.1% YoY versus a 7.9% consensus, while imports surged 25.3%, widening the trade surplus to $84.8 bn. The upbeat macro backdrop lifted Hong Kong’s HSI Property index 7.6% and HSI Mainland Properties 13.4%,...
Yen Surge Could Trigger Oil Price Crash
Japan's Yen Surge: The Oil Shock Threat Explained. We explore the real risk of a 'tail event' from Japan, focusing on a potential Yen surge and its devastating impact on oil prices. Discover the economic domino effect. TailEvent #YenSurge #JapanEconomy...
Energy Pass‑through Keeps Core PCE Near 3%
GS: Energy Passthrough Will Likely Keep Core PCE Inflation Closer to 3% Than 2% Through Year-End https://t.co/P0LWNyKbtE
Powell Stays…Should the Dot Plot?
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced he will remain a Fed governor through 2028, while Kevin Warsh is set to assume the chairmanship in June. The April FOMC meeting held rates steady but recorded four dissenters—the most since 1992—signaling resistance...
Hyperscalers Pour Record Capex Into US, Taiwan Economies
This is doing remarkable things for the economy. Rather than sitting on cash, the hyperscalers are deploying it back into the American and Taiwanese economies
Economy Expanding at Double U.S. Growth Rate
and that is at a time when its economy is growing at twice the rate of the U.S. economy
‘Degree of Complacency’: Are Supply Chains Prepared for Impact of Ongoing Iran War?
The Iran‑Israel war has choked the Strait of Hormuz, cutting oil shipments and depleting emergency stockpiles. While Asian markets impose rationing, Europe remains relatively calm, yet companies warn of rising raw‑material costs and looming shortages. Automakers such as Lucid Motors...
EU and India Sign Central Banking Cooperation MoU
🇪🇺🇮🇳 I met @RBI Governor Malhotra in Basel to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on cooperation in the field of central banking. Looking forward to continued good cooperation. Read the press release https://t.co/uFmnxvTaFg https://t.co/uCVDSJtddt
Questioning Flawed Research on Banks' Dollar Holdings
Mr. Balding needs to back up his assertion here -- What part is wrong? The increase in banks foreign assets? The SCB's rising dollar holdings (in SAFE's data) The policy banks' dollar lending (from AIDdata) 1/2 https://t.co/bGHKNMvvNj
Trump Tariff Refunds Are Actually Happening – and Businesses Should Pay Attention
The Supreme Court’s overturning of Trump’s tariffs has activated a refund process for the roughly 330,000 importers who paid over $166 billion in duties. Federal agencies now allow original customs brokers to file electronic claims through the ACE portal, with refunds...
Nalco's Alumina Exports to West Asia Affected Due to Geopolitical Tensions, Says CMD
National Aluminium Company (Nalco) says geopolitical tensions in West Asia have disrupted its alumina exports, which traditionally represent 40‑50% of its shipments. The slowdown at Middle‑East smelters has pushed spot alumina prices down to $305‑310 per tonne. Nalco’s fourth‑quarter profit...
Hormuz Crisis Blocks Iraq's Regasification, Favors Iran, Hurts US
It is unfortunate that Iraq cannot get the regasification unit because of the Hormuz Crisis (One of the benefits for Iran, loss to the US)
Pakistan, Iran Negotiate Limited Qatari LNG Transit Through Hormuz
Bilateral Hormuz dealmaking continues parallel to any fuller peace deal negotiations: “Pakistan held talks with Iran to allow a limited number of Qatari liquefied natural gas cargoes to transit the Strait of Hormuz, as Qatar sent through its first shipment...
Nigeria’s Aliko Dangote Targets New Refinery in Kenya
Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote is evaluating a 650,000‑barrel‑a‑day oil refinery in Kenya, with Mombasa emerging as his preferred location. He estimates the project will cost between $15 bn and $17 bn. The move follows Kenya’s President William Ruto’s call for a regional refinery, previously...
Spain’s “Compliment Sandwich” Aims to Bridge $50 B Trade Gap with China
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez visited Beijing, pairing praise for China’s rise with pointed criticism of its trade practices, seeking to narrow a $50 billion deficit. Analysts see the “compliment sandwich” as a possible template for Europe as U.S.‑Iran tensions and...
Economist Tyler Goodspeed Says Recessions Are Random, Raising Stock‑Market Uncertainty
Tyler Goodspeed, ExxonMobil's chief economist, argues in his new book that recessions are random shocks, not cyclical events. His view arrives as the U.S. dollar slides 10% and job growth stalls, sharpening concerns for equity investors.
European Central Bank and Reserve Bank of India Sign Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation
The European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of India signed a new Memorandum of Understanding on May 10, 2026, updating their 2015 cooperation framework. The agreement, sealed on the sidelines of the BIS meeting in Basel, creates a structured channel for...
US Court Invalidates Trump’s 10 Percent Global Tariff for 3 Plaintiffs
A three‑judge panel of the U.S. Court of International Trade struck down the Trump administration's 10 percent global tariff as unauthorized, ordering refunds for the state of Washington and two firms, Burlap & Barrel and Basic Fun. The ruling, issued 2‑1,...
Iran Blockade Lowers Oil Prices, Confirming Original Prediction
When I first started pushing for an Iran blockade, my main point was that the big rise in oil prices already priced the incremental disruption to supply, so the pros outweighed the cons. That's been borne out. Oil prices are...
Manufacturers Face Crunch on Industrial Metals
The Iran war has sharply disrupted industrial‑metal supplies, pushing U.S. aluminum prices up nearly 90% as shipments from the Persian Gulf falter and tariffs jump from 10% to 50%. Automakers, which now use 30% more aluminum than in 2020, face...
Looking Back at Jerome Powell's 8-Year Term as Federal Reserve Chair
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell concludes his eight‑year tenure on May 15, 2026, but will stay on the Board as a governor. In an NPR interview, former Philadelphia Fed president Patrick Harker praised Powell’s steady, consensus‑building style and his forceful...
Europe's Trade War with China (Episode 214)
The European Union has intensified its trade dispute with China, launching anti‑dumping investigations and provisional tariffs on sectors such as solar panels, steel and rare‑earth magnets. Duties can reach up to 25 percent, aiming to counter perceived Chinese subsidies that distort...
Italy's Cash Deficit Stays Double Accruals, Exposing Eurozone Fiscal Flaws
Italy is getting lots of accolades for bringing its accruals deficit (red) back to 3%, but the cash deficit - which is what matters because it drives debt issuance - remains at 6% (black). Fiscal policy in the Euro zone...
China Shifts From Low‑Value Manufacturing to High‑Tech Dominance
China is increasingly dominating high-tech industries, while the low-value manufacturing sectors that powered the country’s rise are becoming less important economic drivers https://t.co/z2ny9xep3S via @WSJ
What to Expect From the April CPI Report
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the April CPI on May 12, with headline inflation expected to rise 0.6% month‑over‑month to a 3.7% year‑over‑year pace, driven by surging energy costs linked to the Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict. March’s CPI showed a 0.9%...
American Waterways, Global Volatility: Making the Right Policy Choices
The Biden administration extended a 60‑day Jones Act waiver for an additional 90 days, permitting foreign‑flagged vessels to move oil, natural gas, coal and fertilizer between U.S. ports. The waiver has not lowered domestic gasoline prices but creates a competitive...