Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
The European Commission’s 15th edition of the European List of Ship Recycling Facilities names 41 approved yards, all outside South Asia, despite more than 110 Indian and 23 Bangladeshi yards holding Hong Kong Convention compliance certificates. South Asian facilities now process about 80 % of global ship‑recycling tonnage, yet EU‑flagged vessels are still directed there, exposing the regulation’s limited reach. BIMCO argues the EU list fails to deliver real safety and environmental benefits where they are needed most. The article calls for the EU to adopt the multilateral HKC framework instead of its isolated list.
There are five major forces that together, operate in a big cycle: - Financial force – money, debts, markets, economy - Domestic political force – internal order and disorder, wealth gaps, and conflict between the left and the right - International world order...
On February 12, 2026 Taiwan and the United States signed the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART), eliminating tariffs on roughly 99 percent of bilateral goods and expanding market access across multiple sectors. Beyond tariff cuts, the pact embeds a security architecture...
Bank credit growth seems to be back big time, with 15% growth at the end of Feb. While we have a global crisis on, the indicators earlier did see good signs. It could suck for a few months, but I...
Market participants are adding bullish options on the Iran conflict as the war shows signs of winding down, according to commentary from recent earnings calls and CLSA research. The shift reflects a broader move to hedge or speculate on geopolitical...
Crude oil surged past $100 a barrel, its highest level since 2022, prompting a wave of volatility across the S&P 500. Analysts warn that higher input costs and inflation risk could weigh on large‑cap energy, industrial and consumer firms.
India’s cotton imports jumped 130% in volume and 92.5% in value in 2025, driven by a steep fall in global cotton prices. Lower import prices prompted textile manufacturers to increase purchases, seeking cost savings and higher quality raw material. Brazil...
President Donald Trump has moved his planned summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping to May 14‑15 after postponing it to deal with the escalating war in Iran. The shift underscores a clash between U.S. Middle‑East commitments and its Asia‑Pacific strategy,...
Today’s podcast, ignore the morning hair, is about war time #economics. #oil #bonds #mortgagerates #chartdaddy @housingwire @sarahteresa6
The Australian and New Zealand dollars slipped to near‑key technical supports after Brent crude rebounded to just under $99 per barrel amid renewed Middle‑East conflict. Higher energy costs and a shift in global risk appetite are pressuring the two Southern‑Hemisphere currencies.
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have driven Brent crude above $100 per barrel, triggering the sharpest macro‑economic shock in weeks. Energy‑importing economies from Kuwait to Japan face double‑digit GDP contractions, soaring import bills and heightened inflation, while Gulf diversifiers...
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced a May 1‑May 20 emergency waiver permitting the sale of E15 gasoline across the United States. The move targets soaring pump prices—now near $4 per gallon—linked to the Iran war and seeks to boost domestic...
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr warned that the escalating Iran war could lift oil and gasoline prices, keeping inflation above the Fed’s 2% goal and delaying any further rate cuts. The comment adds a geopolitical layer to the Fed’s dual‑mandate...
Former U.S. diplomat Stephen Biegun says President Donald Trump will pursue an economic deal with China during his mid‑May visit to Beijing. The agenda is expected to focus on securing large‑scale Chinese purchases of American agricultural and manufacturing products. Biegun...
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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko signed a Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation during Lukashenko’s first official visit to Pyongyang. The ceremony featured a 21‑gun salute, schoolchildren waving flags, and a military honor guard, underscoring...
A new ECFR report details how Chinese electric‑vehicle and battery firms are rapidly establishing production and sales footholds across Morocco, Turkey, the Gulf states and broader MENA region. The strategy is designed to capture emerging market share while sidestepping looming...
In a recent Asharq Bloomberg TV interview, The Macro Butler warned that peace is a decorative concept while geopolitical friction in the Middle East is turning oil shipments into a costly toll road. He highlighted Iran’s recent actions that effectively...
Now that cuts have been completely priced out through late 2026 into 1H 2027, long SOFR futures are extremely attractively priced. I do not believe hikes will happen as that would twist the knife into a global recession, so therefore...
Manulife Investment Management’s CIO Nathan Thooft warns that long‑duration U.S. Treasury bonds have again failed to act as a hedge, as equities and bonds moved together amid the US‑Israeli conflict and rising inflation. He argues that the positive equity‑bond correlation,...
🧵Let me take you back to August 1990. Three weeks ago, Iraq invaded Kuwait, oil prices have surged, and the FOMC is meeting to decide how to respond. The economy looks wobbly. Payrolls just recorded a small decline. Greenspan talks...
Key pushback to a blockade is that it might spike oil prices. Iran's 2 million barrels per day could spike oil prices by 20% if they go offline, but - with Brent already up 60% from before the war -...
President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff regime, launched over the past 14 months, has failed to meet its stated goals of boosting U.S. manufacturing and reshaping global trade. Instead, the duties have increased import prices, prompted retaliatory measures from key trading...
So far, HY credit spreads haven't widened anyway near as much as they should - given sustained oil prices & its large swings, not to mention supported high VIX & mechanical selling. Wait and see mode only lasts so long... Geopolitical shocks...
Brent crude nearing $100. Citi's CIO says markets show "excessive optimism" on peace. Iran rejected the latest US proposal. 20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. "Excessive optimism" is a polite way of saying: priced wrong. $OIL $XLE $SPY https://t.co/9YTglnhd8a
Fast‑moving consumer goods (FMCG) firms are preparing selective price hikes and smaller pack sizes as crude oil prices surge amid the West Asia conflict. Packaging and logistics costs have jumped 15‑20%, prompting companies like Parle, Dabur and AWL Agri to...
"Compared with February 2025, the import price index excluding petroleum climbed 2.8% — the most since October 2022 and suggesting the tariff burden is falling primarily on US importers." (The index here does not include tariffs.) https://t.co/BThM0jjJxj https://t.co/QmsfwHVOLd
Old man Trump can't remember whether he was supposed to bring prices down or up https://t.co/1NEJ3Ji5fF
Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson warns that bonds will deliver a lost decade of returns. He argues that persistent, three‑decade inflation driven by war‑related debt and pandemic stimulus makes high‑quality U.S. stocks the best hedge. Wilson recommends...
DB: Sectors with higher AI adoption have shown a more significant deceleration in wage growth. @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/a0GkxtUZTB
🇺🇸U.S. export sales met or exceeded expectations last week. Mexico and Colombia led in corn sales, and Germany and Mexico were the leaders in soybeans for new outright sales (China topped net sales, and those were due to a switch...
European sovereign bond markets remain under pressure after a sharp sell‑off triggered by the Middle East war, and analysts say a swift end to the conflict is unlikely to spark a rapid rebound. Intermittent rallies have emerged on hopes of...
Gold at $4,560. Real yields still elevated. Gold is supposed to fall when real yields rise. It's not falling. That's not a hedge. That's a warning. $GLD $TLT $SPY https://t.co/eAdLleClyB
This morning is offering a beautiful moment to see what I call "War Beta" - how price sensitive specific assets are to changes in Middle East tensions.
At the March 18 FOMC press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell asked whether policymakers should look through the surge in oil prices triggered by the Iran‑Ukraine conflict. Recent data show import prices for consumer goods and industrial supplies climbing 5‑6% year‑over‑year,...
Key mistake the West made after Putin's invasion of Ukraine was not to embargo Russian oil. The result is that - more than 4 years later - Russia is still waging war with appalling loss of life. A short, sharp...
The headline is 4.2 % US INFLATION The real story is STAGFLATION Longer war = higher energy prices Higher energy prices = inflation + weaker growth The only uncertainty is how long it lasts. #OECD #Oil #Inflation #Stagflation #EnergyCrisis #Macro #Geopolitics #Growth #oott...
The renewed Iran war has disrupted urea and ammonium nitrate production, slashing exports and driving global fertilizer prices up roughly 30 percent. The price surge coincides with the critical U.S. planting window, adding $10‑$20 per acre to corn fertilizer costs....
Iran war just canceled a better economic outlook for the world https://t.co/4zqeIEwXkO via @CraigStirling @WHorobin https://t.co/hfVE77iQwZ
The negotiations are going so well, Iran is so desperate for a deal and the US has already won the war... So, why is the Pentagon considering this?
The U.S. dollar is trading in a narrow range against G10 currencies while equities and bonds are under pressure. A potential escalation in the Middle East, highlighted by Tehran’s rejection of a U.S. cease‑fire proposal, is dampening risk appetite. Oil...
From Liberation Day to the Strait of Hormuz, is global trade and world order going thru an upheaval? Will the world move go from bifurcation or trifurcation to fragmentation? Who will dominant? What would supply chains look like and operate...
Six months ago: markets pricing 3+ rate cuts. Now: pricing 8bps of TIGHTENING. The Fed didn't pivot. The Fed reversed. 37% chance of ZERO cuts in 2026. This isn't a soft landing. This is a regime change. $SPY $TLT $QQQ https://t.co/UxC4Gdd51F
The Pentagon estimates that the first two days of the current U.S. war against Iran have cost roughly $5.6 billion in munitions, with the first week’s expense doubling to about $11 billion. These figures, highlighted by Brookings analyst Michael O’Hanlon, underscore the...
“NEVER FORGET”. Trump’s threat to NATO. And its countries. Tariffs. Then? What is Putin thinking? https://t.co/9rM5Qpfg8L
"Maximilian Uleer and his team at Deutsche Bank developed a simple and useful index of the pressure on the president, an equal-weight measure composed of four-week changes in the S&P 500, the 10-year Treasury, short-term inflation expectations and the presidential...
I can't imagine why..👀👀 UK faces biggest hit to growth from Middle East war, OECD warns https://t.co/ktp9YMPz8O via @ft
The Saudis are lobbying the US for war to continue. On the surface, they want Iran to be properly defeated, but there's another reason. They're making lots more money now than before the war, even with somewhat lower export volumes...
UK faces worst hit from the war among major economies, OECD warns https://t.co/Uhp1SWBHHa via @PhilAldrick https://t.co/tx47vbOjRe
Germany sees the danger of its 2026 growth rate halving on the Iran crisis https://t.co/nHLUdPr4mQ via @KowalczeKamil https://t.co/VRembvehDw
The conflict in the Middle East is reviving the specter of inflation and hobbling the global economy just as it was showing signs of strengthening at the start of the year, the OECD says https://t.co/QZXRbRvX44 via @WHorobin https://t.co/YbWb9a8eX6
