Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Asia Week Ahead: China and India Release Highly Anticipated Inflation Data
The week ahead centers on inflation releases from China and India, alongside China’s trade figures. India’s consumer price index is projected to edge higher, mainly due to food price pressures, while China’s CPI is expected to hold steady at 1.0% YoY with a PPI rise to 1.9%. Chinese trade data anticipates 6.5% export growth, a 20.4% jump in imports and a $71.6 bn surplus. These metrics will shape regional monetary‑policy expectations and market sentiment.
From Oil Giants to Banks - These Companies Are Making Billions From Iran War
The Iran‑Israel conflict has sent oil prices soaring, boosting profits for European oil majors whose trading desks capitalised on volatility. U.S. banks, led by JP Morgan, recorded record trading revenue, pushing quarterly earnings to multi‑billion levels. Defense contractors such as BAE Systems...
Sensex Today | Stock Market Live Updates: Sensex Falls Nearly 500 Points as US-Iran Tensions Hit Market Sentiment
On May 8 2026 India’s Sensex slipped 498 points (‑0.64%) to 77,345 as escalating US‑Iran tensions near the Strait of Hormuz rattled market sentiment. The drop was amplified by heavy foreign institutional outflows of roughly ₹68,870 cr (about $8.3 bn), the lowest FII ownership...
The Case for a US-China Bilateral Investment Treaty
The blog argues that the upcoming Trump‑Xi summit in Beijing offers a chance to revive a long‑stalled U.S.–China Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT). A BIT would lower cross‑border investment barriers, address forced technology transfers, and create a framework for managing sensitive...
Rupee Falls 45 Paise to 94.67 Against US Dollar in Early Trade
India's rupee weakened to 94.67 per U.S. dollar in early Friday trade, slipping 45 paise from the previous close. The decline coincided with Brent crude climbing back to $101 a barrel after U.S. and Iranian forces exchanged fire near the...
China's Oil Imports Drop, Re‑exports Surge, Demand Stalls
China is importing less oil & re-exporting more. This one of the first genuinely bearish physical signals to emerge since the war began. @JavierBlas offers no satisfying explanations but I will China’s overproduction machine has hit a demand wall. https://t.co/snT1YW3WuM #oil #China #energy #economy...
LEI for Spain Retreated in March
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) for Spain slipped 0.8% in March 2026, landing at 102.2, after modest gains in February and January. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) edged up 0.1% to 118.2, indicating only marginal current‑activity growth. All...
US‑Iran Clash in Hormuz Threatens Global Oil Flow
🇺🇸🇮🇷 US and Iran are fighting again in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has recently attacked ships and the US has hit back. This area moves 20% of the world’s oil every day. If the fighting gets...
Japan’s Real Wages Rose in March, Boosting Odds of a June Hike
Japan’s real wages rose 2.7% year‑on‑year in March, marking the third straight month of growth, while regular salaries climbed 3.0% and bonuses fell 1.5%. Tokyo’s CPI increased only 1.5% YoY in April, a figure softened by temporary government price caps....
Luxury’s Future After the War in Iran
The ongoing war in Iran is accelerating a downturn in the global luxury market, especially in the Middle East where Gulf wealth—estimated at $7.5 trillion and projected to double by 2050—has traditionally driven sales. Luxury groups such as LVMH derive roughly...
US and South Africa Hold Talks on Mining Deals After Year of Tensions
U.S. officials and South African mineral authorities met in Washington to revive mining partnerships after a year of diplomatic friction. The talks focused on joint ventures in platinum‑group metals, lithium and copper, with U.S. firms such as Freeport‑McMoRan and Newmont...
Investors Dump Indian Assets as Energy Shock Sends Rupee Sliding
Investors are pulling billions from Indian equities and bonds after a sharp energy price shock pushed the rupee to its weakest level in months. Foreign portfolio outflows reached roughly $5 billion in the latest reporting week, while the rupee slipped to...
Protectionism Makes Everyone Poorer During Global Shocks
Recent global shocks—from the Iran war to Ukraine and the Strait of Hormuz—have prompted governments to impose trade restrictions that often spike prices and volatility. WTO monitoring shows that during the first two months of the Ukraine conflict, 53 trade...
Lula Urges US Firms to Invest in Brazil’s Rare Earths
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula publicly urged U.S. companies to invest in Brazil’s nascent rare‑earth sector after a recent meeting with former President Donald Trump. Lula highlighted Brazil’s estimated 20 percent share of global rare‑earth reserves and the country’s ambition to become a...
Oil Futures Rise After U.S., Iran Trade Fire; Stock Futures Quiet After Court Rejects Trump’s Tariffs
U.S. forces launched retaliatory airstrikes against Iranian targets after Navy vessels were attacked, pushing West Texas Intermediate crude up about 2% and lifting Brent prices. The geopolitical flare‑up came as a federal court rejected President Donald Trump’s latest tariff proposal,...
Julie Bishop's Five Rules for Resources Diplomacy
Former Australian foreign minister Julie Bishop outlines five guiding principles for resources diplomacy, arguing that the current geopolitical realignment makes resource security a strategic priority for both governments and corporations. Her framework stresses early engagement with host nations, diversification of...
China Needs New Growth Drivers as Consumer Spending Has yet to Fill the Gap
China’s economy is projected to grow around 5% through 2025‑2026, but the underlying momentum has weakened. Growth slowed after 2017 as consumer spending turned slightly negative and export growth decelerated amid global uncertainty. Demographic headwinds—shrinking working‑age population and ageing—now drag...
Weaker Peso Bloats Government Debt
The Philippines' total government debt rose to a record P18.49 trillion (about $333 billion) at the end of March, up roughly 2% from February and reaching 65.2% of GDP. The increase reflects higher domestic borrowing—domestic debt climbed to P12.53 trillion ($226 billion)—and a valuation...
Bond Traders Price Over 50% Chance of Fed Hike by April 2026
Bond market participants are rapidly revising their outlook, with swaps indicating a greater than 50% chance the Federal Reserve will raise rates by next April. The shift reflects persistent inflation worries, the Iran conflict, and an upcoming change in Fed...
Aspect Capital Opens $550 Million China Futures Strategy to Global Investors
Aspect Capital, the London‑based systematic hedge fund with $9 billion in assets under management, has opened its China absolute‑return futures program to investors worldwide. The $550 million strategy, previously limited to mainland Chinese clients since 2019, aims to provide uncorrelated returns as...
China Rotation Fuels 19% Gains in Three Ex-China ETFs in 2026
The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC), Columbia EM Core ex‑China (XCEM) and SPDR MSCI Emerging Markets Strategic Factors (QEMM) each delivered double‑digit year‑to‑date returns, with QEMM up 19% and the other two topping 27%. The rally reflects a...
EUR/JPY Holds Near 183.50 as German Factory Orders Surge and Yen Stays Firm
Germany's March factory orders surged 5% month‑over‑month, pushing the euro higher, but the EUR/JPY cross stayed flat around 183.50 as the Japanese yen remained firm. Traders are watching upcoming Eurozone retail sales data and signals from the Bank of Japan,...
Philippine Peso Gains 1.6% on Oil Price Relief, Eyes Stronger Trade Balance
The Philippine peso rose 1.6% to 60.345 per dollar, its strongest daily gain in a month, after oil prices slipped on optimism surrounding a potential US‑Iran peace deal. The move lifts the peso from its status as Asia's worst performer...
China's Forex Reserves Jump to $3.41 Trillion in April, Outpacing Forecasts
China's central bank reported foreign‑exchange reserves of $3.411 trillion for April, surpassing the Reuters poll estimate of $3.36 trillion. The rise, driven by a weaker US dollar, coincided with a 0.83% appreciation of the yuan, suggesting robust capital inflows.
Copper Holds Steady at $13,393/Ton as Traders Eye US‑Iran Truce
Copper settled at $13,393 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, ending a three‑day rally as market participants weighed a potential US‑Iran truce. The pause reflects uncertainty over whether the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, a factor that could...
Goldman Says Trump Tariff Ruling Near-Term Impact Limited as Appeal Looms
Goldman Sachs expects the Trump administration to appeal the Court of International Trade's 2‑1 decision striking down the 10% Section 122 tariffs before the May 12 effective date, and to secure a higher‑court stay. A stay would leave the duties in place...
South Korea’s Current Account Surplus Surges to Record on Chips
South Korea posted a record current‑account surplus of $37.3 billion in March, eclipsing the previous $23.2 billion high set in February. The surge was powered by a sharp rise in semiconductor exports and stronger shipments to Asia and the United States. The...
Markets Reprice the Illusion of Calm
Markets are repricing after fresh Middle East flare‑ups, as oil surged and the dollar firmed, pulling US equity futures into a brief pullback. The AI‑driven liquidity rally that has propelled technology stocks to record highs now faces a fragile backdrop...
Evening Update: The "Art Of Dealmaker" Got Rejected By Saudis.
The Evening Update reports that a high‑profile US dealmaker, dubbed the "Art of Dealmaker," had his latest proposal rejected by Saudi officials. The pitch, which aimed to secure a multi‑billion‑dollar partnership in energy and infrastructure, was turned down after intensive...
No AI, Poor Returns Drive Indian Investors to Foreign Markets
Indian investors, traditionally concentrated in domestic equities, are increasingly allocating capital to overseas markets. A prolonged period of weaker relative returns at home, combined with a lack of AI-driven investment tools, has eroded confidence in local assets. The shift follows...
Mexican Airlines Exude Cautious Optimism While Working to Determine Conditions in 1H2026
Mexican flag carrier Aeroméxico and low‑cost airline Volaris are reporting steady passenger demand despite recent fare hikes prompted by soaring fuel costs tied to the Iran conflict. Both carriers say demand remains resilient in the first half of 2026, but...
U.S. Trade Court Rules Trump Tariffs Illegal, but Issues Narrow Block
The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that President Donald Trump's recent 10% global tariffs violate a 1970s trade law, deeming them illegal. The court issued a narrow injunction, shielding only two small businesses and the state of Washington from...
Trump Gives EU Until July 4 to Implement Turnberry Deal or Face Tariff Hike
President Donald Trump has set a July 4 deadline for the European Union to fulfill its side of the Turnberry trade agreement, warning that failure will trigger substantially higher tariffs. The deal would lower U.S. duties on most EU goods to...
AI Is Distorting Practically Everything About the Economy
Greg Ip argues that artificial intelligence has shifted from a growth catalyst to a hurricane‑strength force reshaping the U.S. economy. AI is inflating headline GDP numbers while masking underlying productivity shortfalls, and it is distorting stock market valuations, corporate profit outlooks,...
AI Capex Fuels Corning Growth; Buy Now
Macro: AI capex boosts US supply chains. Nvidia’s multi-$bn prepayment plus up to $3.2B equity option funds new Corning glass plants. Risks: execution, cyclical demand. Trade: buy Corning. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Iran Focus at Trump-Xi Summit May Delay Progress on Tariffs, Rare Earths
The upcoming Trump‑Xi summit on May 14‑15 will be dominated by the Iran war, pushing tariff and rare‑earth discussions to the background. The U.S. has pared down its business delegation to roughly a dozen CEOs, including Boeing and Citigroup, amid concerns...
The Wrap: AI and Metals Surge, Dollar Gyrates and Private Credit Sinks
Gold prices jumped nearly 3% in five days while silver outperformed, driven by supply bottlenecks in India and broader Asian markets. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet rebounded to roughly $6.65 trillion, adding $42 billion of Treasury bills in February, signaling renewed reserve...
Trade Court Strikes Down Trump 10% Universal Tariffs
The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that President Trump’s newly imposed 10% universal tariff, enacted under the unused Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, is illegal. The court issued a permanent injunction limited to the two small‑business plaintiffs, leaving...
Japan Services PMI Hits 11-Month Low in April. War Costs Bite, Input Costs 42-Month High
Japan's services PMI slipped to 51.0 in April, the weakest expansion in 11 months but still above the 50‑point growth threshold. Input prices surged at the fastest pace in a year, driven largely by fuel costs linked to the Middle...
ASEAN Advances Digital Economy Framework for Sustainable Resilience
ASEAN economic ministers reaffirmed commitments to bolster regional supply chains, accelerate a Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) and launch a green economy study at the 27th AECC meeting in Cebu. They pushed for rapid ratification of the upgraded ASEAN Trade...
Truth Erased: US‑Iran Narratives Mask Ongoing Conflict
This is the new reality. The lines between fact and fiction, truth and lies, are not only blurred, they have been erased. I am reminded of Hans Christian Andersen’s classic tale, “The Emperor’s New Clothes”. But the current situation has gone...
Thailand Ranks 3rd Happiest with Low Misery
In Hanke’s 2025 Annual Misery Index in @FortuneMagazine, Thailand ranks as the 3RD HAPPIEST COUNTRY out of 178 countries. This is thanks to their low unemployment and inflation paired with stable real GDP growth per capita of 2.5%. THAILAND = LOW MISERY...
Maersk to Shift $500 Million Monthly Iran War Oil Surge to Shippers
Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc announced the carrier will transfer the $500 million‑per‑month cost increase from the Iran‑driven oil shock to its customers. The move comes as the company posted $1.75 billion EBITDA in Q1, underscoring the pressure on container rates worldwide.
Trump’s New Tariffs Declared Unconstitutional Despite Legal Loophole
Trump's tariffs—the ones he added because the last ones were ruled unconstitutional—were just ruled unconstitutional My crack team has discovered why. This law allows him to impose temporary tariffs to "deal with large and serious US balance-of-payments deficits." Here it is: https://t.co/UDa8Tp7STS
China’s Imports Trail Global Trade and GDP Growth
in volume terms China's imports have lagged both global trade and China's reported GDP growth bigly https://t.co/GytLVBfdJq
Chinese Firms Suspend US Expansion as Business Climate Worsens
Chinese companies largely paused new US investments in 2025, citing a deteriorating business climate and heightened geopolitical risk. A CGCC survey revealed that 15% of firms reduced spending and 6% are weighing a full exit, while 79% intend to reinvest...
Morgan Stanley Sees Gold at $5,200 (Central Bank Buys, Fed Cuts), Fear Trade Is Now Dead
Morgan Stanley projects gold to reach $5,200 per ounce by year‑end, driven by renewed ETF and central‑bank buying and anticipated Federal Reserve cuts in early 2027. The bank notes gold has fallen 14.5% since the Iran conflict, underperforming both the...
Treasury Meets with Life Insurers to Discuss Private Credit
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with state insurance commissioners and the NAIC to examine life insurers' expanding exposure to private‑credit assets. Regulators are worried that the opaque, offshore‑heavy nature of the $2 trillion market could hide risks that threaten policyholder...
Rial Rebounds Sharply From Lows Despite 10‑day Decline
The Iranian rial’s performance over the last few days: 1. Today, depreciated 0.5% against the USD. 2. Appreciated 9.1% vs. the USD from all-time lows 3 days ago. 3. In the last 10 days, depreciated 9.5% against the USD https://t.co/RcBXFmfctl
Chicago Grain and Oilseed Futures Drop on Hopes of US‑Iran Peace Deal
Chicago grain and oilseed futures fell on Tuesday after market participants grew optimistic that the United States and Iran are close to a peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The optimism eased earlier supply‑concern fears for nutrient‑intensive...