Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
The McKinsey Global Institute report finds that despite record‑high U.S. tariffs, global trade expanded faster than the world economy in 2025, with AI‑related shipments accounting for roughly one‑third of that growth. U.S.–China trade fell about 30%, wiping out $130 bn in Chinese exports, while Southeast Asian exporters captured a 14% surge in U.S. demand. AI hardware—chips, servers, networking gear—became the dominant driver of trade, reshaping supply chains toward Taiwan, South Korea and other Asian hubs. Meanwhile, the EU faced a “double squeeze,” seeing its automotive surplus erode as Chinese electric vehicles surged 50% in Europe.
A year after President Trump’s trade assault, Asian economies escaped tariff fallout thanks to market pressure and AI‑driven growth, but the Iran‑Israel war has reignited a severe energy shock. Goldman Sachs warns that soaring oil and LNG prices could derail...
Good Morning from Germany, where consumer sentiment is sliding as the Iran war fuels fears of stagflation. The GfK consumer sentiment index dropped by 3.2 points to -28.0, the weakest readings since 2024. Income expectations have fallen back into negative territory,...
China’s annual trade surplus now exceeds $1.2 trillion, yet official foreign‑exchange reserves remain around $3 trillion. Export firms split operations between domestic manufacturers and offshore entities in Hong Kong, Singapore or the UAE, invoicing only production costs locally while retaining full profits abroad...
Barclays estimates that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would remove 13‑14 million barrels per day from global oil supply, representing roughly 13% of projected 2026 demand. The bank warns that if the disruption extends into late April, Brent...
Iran's bid to start charging a fee to vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz (Tehran never ratified the UNCLOS despite signing it in 1982) is making other countries ensure they don't encounter such risks in other chokepoints -- the Straits...
A sharp rise in diesel to about 39 baht ($1.11) per litre—driven by the US‑Israeli war on Iran—has left more than half of Samut Sakhon’s trawlers idle and threatens to shut down Thailand’s multibillion‑dollar fishing sector within days. Thailand exports roughly...
The South African Reserve Bank kept its repo rate at 6.75% as the US‑Israel war sparked higher global energy prices, prompting inflation concerns. Inflation, which had fallen to the 3% target in February, is now projected to climb toward 4%...
Asian equity markets slipped on Thursday as uncertainty over a de‑escalation of the Iran war weighed on investor sentiment, with the Nikkei down 0.3%, the Kospi off 1.9% and the Hang Seng falling 1.4%. Oil prices rebounded, lifting Brent crude...
Japan's Nikkei index climbed 0.61% to 54,075, driven by a 6.2% jump in SoftBank shares after Arm Holdings forecast strong data‑center chip revenue. The rally reflects growing optimism that Middle‑East tensions may ease, even as the market stays below its...
The East is Red provides a translation of a very interesting essay by Wang Xiaolu, Deputy Director of the National Economic Research Institute. The problem with the Chinese economy, Wang says (and as I have argued for over a decade), is...
Indian equities are currently reacting more to US President Donald Trump’s statements than to fundamentals, with oil price swings amplifying market volatility. Dipan Mehta of Elixir Equities warns that the March earnings quarter will be tepid and the June quarter...
The escalating U.S.-Israeli conflict in Iran is causing the most severe supply‑chain disruption in the luxury watch sector since the 1970s. Swatch and SwissWatchExpo, two industry heavyweights, are scrambling to protect sales by shifting inventory and event planning away from...
Recent Russian offensives across the Lyman‑Borova, Konstantinovka and Zaporozhye axes have yielded scant territorial gains and reported heavy losses, especially a mechanized push halted on March 19. Ukrainian sources claim over 400 Russian casualties and the destruction of dozens of...
A Sierra Leone‑flagged Suezmax tanker, the Altura, was struck by drones near the Bosporus, damaging its bridge and engine room but causing no crew injuries. Turkish officials say the attack likely involved an unmanned underwater vehicle, a rare method in...
Foreign ministers of the G‑7 gathered in France to bridge a widening transatlantic rift over the Iran‑Israel war, as President Donald Trump warned of severe retaliation if Tehran rejects a peace deal. The two‑day summit, chaired by France, also featured...
The Bank of Korea says South Korea’s financial system stayed broadly stable in March but warns that Middle‑East tensions, uneven growth and persistent housing price gains could spark volatility. Board member Lee Soohyung highlighted the risk of foreign‑exchange swings, capital...
Asia is projected to generate an additional US$7 trillion in private consumption over the next ten years, a 40% rise comparable to adding today’s entire Chinese consumer market. A new Roland Berger report finds quality is the primary driver in fast‑growing economies...
Henry Huiyao Wang argues that as the United States steps back from global stewardship, middle powers are assuming the mantle of multilateral leadership. He points to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans‑Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) as a flagship of this...
Geraldine Slattery, president of BHP’s Australian operations, warned that ongoing energy disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions are pushing nations to prioritize supply security over climate goals. The warning comes as oil prices have surged 35% and BHP faces pressure over...
Aliko Dangote’s refinery has lifted its ex‑depot gasoline price to N1,285 per litre – its fifth hike in March – as the U.S.–Israel war on Iran pushes crude to $120 a barrel. The move deepens Dangote’s downstream foothold while sparking...
The FTSE 100 jumped 1.2% on Tuesday, buoyed by signs of a diplomatic thaw in the Middle East and expectations that UK inflation data could support a softer monetary stance. Traders cited the rally as a barometer of renewed risk...
S&P Global’s flash Purchasing Managers’ Index surveys for March 2026 show business activity edging closer to stagnation worldwide, with the eurozone slipping to 50.5 and the UK composite at 51.0. At the same time, input‑cost inflation jumped as Brent crude...
UK government bonds surged as the 10-year gilt yield briefly crossed the 5% mark on March 20, the highest level since the 2008 crisis. Traders link the jump to inflation pressures from the Iran‑Israel war and worries that the Treasury’s...
The Swiss National Bank disclosed that 2025 delivered a record volume of new Swiss franc bond issuances and a surge in issuers, signaling deeper market liquidity. While exact figures were not disclosed, the report came alongside the SNB’s decision to...
Goldman Sachs increased its estimate of a U.S. recession this year to a 30% probability, up from 25% a week earlier. The revision reflects tighter labor markets, higher oil prices and diminishing fiscal and monetary headroom. Competing forecasts from peers...
BlackRock’s Rick Rieder said today he still thinks the 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve should cut interest rates - Bloomberg
The White House affirmed that diplomatic talks with Iran remain active, even as Tehran publicly rebuffed U.S. overtures and set new preconditions for ending the conflict. The discord underscores heightened tensions that have already rattled Middle‑East stability and global financial...
Affluent individuals and families are rapidly securing second passports as a hedge against escalating geopolitical tensions, driving a 62% surge in citizenship‑by‑investment (CBI) applications since 2023. Nauru’s newly launched program, which ties passport purchases to a Climate Resilience Fund, has...
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The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) entered into force in 2022, creating the world’s largest free‑trade bloc with 15 Asia‑Pacific economies. Together the members represent roughly 30% of global GDP and population, and the pact cuts tariffs across a broad...
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The guide explains beggar‑thy‑neighbor policies—tariffs, quotas, and currency devaluation—as tools nations use to protect domestic industries at the expense of trade partners. It traces the concept from Adam Smith’s critique through the Great Depression, post‑World War II Japan, and the 1990s...
Bond market volatility is accelerating, with the MOVE index climbing to 103.01 by mid‑2026. The surge coincides with a sharp rise in U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields, signaling heightened uncertainty in fixed‑income markets. Simultaneously, the equity‑focused VIX index mirrors this turbulence,...
It’s only appropriate to revisit this chart after the recent move in markets. And yes… We’re still in the early innings of a regime shift from financial assets to hard assets. The reality is simple: Commodity markets play a critical role, yet their size...
1/6 Bloomberg: "“Singapore believes China can play a bigger role in supporting regional prosperity and stability,” Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said at the Boao Forum. “Its vast domestic market can be a powerful engine of growth for the region.” https://t.co/npbm7nXQEo
Foreign issuers pushed panda bond sales in mainland China to 27.8 bn yuan ($4 bn) in March, more than tripling year‑to‑date volume. The surge comes as the Iran war pushes borrowers toward the yuan‑denominated on‑shore market, marking a record month for foreign...
1/9 Reuters: "China said that Mexico's trade measures against it, including tariff increases, constitute trade and investment barriers and that it had the right to take countermeasures." rld/china/china-says-it-has-right-retaliate-against-mexicos-tariff-hikes-2026-03-25/
The FAT TAIL for the Persian Gulf crisis Prolonged energy disruption & economic dislocation THRU 2027, says @ProfessorKaren That assumes the conflict is resolved in April or May
Even if a “deal” happens tomorrow, the damage doesn’t reset Kuwait Petroleum says full production recovery takes 3–4 months A ceasefire is just the start of a long, uneven rebuild #Oil #Kuwait #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis #SupplyShock #Geopolitics #OOTT #Markets
Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee agree that the opening the Strait of Hormuz is important Where's DOGE when you need to cut fraud and waste?
Finally, a little commerce is moving in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians benefit by charging up to $2 million for free passage and those who pass obviously benefit or they wouldn’t pay the transit fee. THREE CHEERS FOR COMMERCE. https://t.co/hzDa6MSkxF
Gasoline is telling you what this war really means. Up $1.00 a gallon in just 25 days. It's the first wave of the coming tsunami of inflation #GasPrices #Oil #Inflation #EnergyCrisis #Iran #Hormuz #Economy #Geopolitics #War #OOTT
“Weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz is not an act of aggression against one nation. It is economic terrorism against every nation, every family that depends on affordable energy and food.” Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. CEO Sultan Al Jaber says in speech at @MiddleEastInst...
Russia stopped exports of ammonium nitrate through April to ensure domestic supply during planting season. Russia controls a massive portion of global trade in ammonium nitrate at about 40%. IT LOOKS LIKE MOSCOW IS SAYING SANCTIONS WILL HAVE TO GIVE OR FERTILIZER...
These narratives are likely just a reflection of the U.S. searching for a symbolic win, rather than a practical military plan. #iranwar #marines #geopolitics https://t.co/tCey0wFpxi
Good morning, We are in Day 26 of the war and Asia is reeling from the conflict as we are most dependent on Middle oil and gas. Let's talk about how Asia is affected by this conflict, a thread. You can...
Yesterday, the EU struck a trade deal with Australia to secure access to critical minerals, like lithium and aluminum. According to the NYT, US tariffs pushed the deal forward. TRUMP’S TARIFFS = CREATING AMERICAN ENEMIES = PIVOT AWAY FROM UNCLE SAM. https://t.co/Suer5RGrQO
Fed’s Operating Losses Declined to $19 Billion in 2025, “Unrealized Losses” Declined to $844 Billion. QE hangover a little less atrocious after years of QT and lower interest rates https://t.co/iwXBD2STH5 https://t.co/JmA1t7ABYD
A thread on some work in progress, on China's US bond portfolio As the chart below shows, China's cumulative current account surplus has increased by $3 trillion since the end of 2019 -- and inflows into the US in the US...
US officials are examining what a potential spike in oil prices as high as $200 a barrel would mean for the economy, sources tell @hlowenkron @SalehaMohsin and me, a sign of studying possible fallout from extreme scenarios for the #Iran...
This has been a week of the most confusing and contradictory headlines I’ve ever seen in 30 years. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that an exchange of messages between the two countries through mediators “does not mean negotiations with...
