Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Inflation Risks Rebuild in Australia, Supporting RBA Tightening
Australia’s consumer price index jumped to 4.6% year‑on‑year in March, up from 3.7% in February, as transport costs surged 9% and housing inflation accelerated to 6.8%. The underlying trim‑mean CPI rose to 3.5% YoY, indicating persistent price pressure. The data strengthens expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will deliver a 25‑basis‑point rate hike at its May meeting, while markets price in a cumulative 60‑basis‑point tightening by year‑end. The stronger outlook has lifted the Australian dollar, now trading about 0.7% above pre‑war levels.
Germany's AAA Rating at Risk Amid €1tn Debt Plan
Good Morning from Germany, where the country’s AAA credit rating is coming under pressure. Acc to a financial plan the cabinet is set to approve today, the federal govt aims to take on nearly €1tn in new debt by 2030....
Everyone’s Getting Mugged by Inflation – and You’ve Got One Man to Blame
Inflation in Australia jumped to 4.6% in March, the highest in three years, largely driven by a spike in oil prices after the U.S.-Iran conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz. Oil now trades around US$110 a barrel, pushing transport and...
Jerome Powell: Fed Chair Who Stood up to Trump Set to Finish Tenure on Top
Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair who weathered intense criticism from former President Donald Trump, is set to deliver what is likely his final press conference as chair. The Justice Department has dropped its investigation into Powell’s alleged renovation‑cost overruns,...
Panama Reaffirms ‘Neutrality’ of Canal Amid Middle East War
Panama reaffirmed the canal’s neutrality on April 28 as the Middle East war forces a surge in alternative shipping routes. Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has driven oil and gas carriers to the Panama Canal, lifting daily transits...
Interview with AGAGA
Alasdair Macleod argues that China’s massive household savings—estimated at $30 trillion—combined with new gold‑accumulation accounts could enable the country to purchase the world’s entire annual gold output. He contrasts the All‑In Sustaining Cost of top gold miners, which yields roughly $54,000...
Bank of Thailand Keeps Interest Rate Unchanged
The Bank of Thailand left its one‑day repurchase rate unchanged at 1.00%, the lowest level in more than three years, after six consecutive cuts that shaved 150 basis points off the policy rate. The decision reflects concerns that higher oil...
Fuel Levy Relief Extended To June
South Africa’s Treasury and Mineral and Petroleum Resources departments have extended the temporary fuel‑levy relief through 2 June 2026, keeping the R3 per litre (~$0.16) cut for petrol and eliminating the diesel levy until that date. A reduced relief package will...
NZ–India FTA Signed in Delhi — 95 Per Cent of Wood Tariffs Wiped From Day One
New Zealand and India signed a 1,364‑page free‑trade agreement in Delhi, wiping out more than 95% of tariffs on New Zealand wood and forestry products from day one. The deal covers HS codes 44, 47 and 48, eliminating the 5.5‑11% duties...
FX Daily: Powell’s Last Act Might Carry a Hawkish Tint
The FX Daily note highlights that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s final press conference could tilt hawkish, bolstering the dollar amid lingering equity jitters and Middle‑East volatility. A potential hawkish Fed signal, combined with Iran‑related geopolitical risk and the UAE’s...
Condom Prices Could Jump 30% — Why This Is an Inflation Warning
Karex, the world’s largest condom manufacturer, warned it could raise prices by up to 30% as the Iran‑related conflict disrupts energy markets and inflates raw‑material costs. The price shock stems from higher fuel, freight, silicone oil, synthetic rubber and aluminium...
Federal Reserve at Crossroads: Leadership Shift & Policy Outlook
Kevin Warsh has been nominated to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair, promising a more open, debate‑driven policy environment. The Fed’s 19‑member policy committee remains divided, with roughly half hawkish, a third centrist, and only a small minority favoring...
Waiting Game: Markets Stall Ahead of Fed Powell’s Finale
Traders are sitting on the sidelines as the Federal Reserve’s June meeting approaches, with most expecting a rate hold at the 3.50%‑3.75% range and a neutral “steady as she goes” tone from Jerome Powell. Oil prices have jumped on the...
Lloyds Shares Drop After Income Upgrade on Higher Interest Rates
Lloyds Banking Group raised its net interest income outlook to above £14.9bn ($18.6bn) as elevated interest rates persist amid geopolitical tension. The bank reported a 33% jump in pre‑tax profit to £2bn ($2.5bn), driven by a higher net interest margin...
Red Meat Tops List of Domestic Food Price Inflation Items
Australia’s March CPI showed headline inflation jump to 4.6% year‑on‑year, the fastest pace since September 2023. Red‑meat prices, led by beef and lamb, surged 11.8% and were the biggest driver of food‑price inflation, while coffee rose 10.7%. Overall food inflation held...
Global Oil Dynamics Enter Volatile Phase After UAE Decision: Peter McGuire
The United Arab Emirates announced a surprise departure from the OPEC+ alliance, cutting roughly 12% of the bloc’s production capacity. The move caught markets off guard, prompting immediate price spikes as West Texas Intermediate hovered around $100 per barrel. Analysts,...
Nigeria Rebound Exposes Global Benchmark Blind Spot in African Markets
Nigeria’s equity market posted a sharp rebound in April 2026, rallying over 15% after months of underperformance. The surge highlighted a systematic blind spot in global benchmark indices, which largely exclude or underweight Nigerian and broader African equities. Analysts argue...
Mental Health Crisis Could Cost UK £170bn as Workforce Participation Falls, Report Warns
A new Zurich UK analysis warns that mental‑health disorders could cost the British economy about $216 billion a year by 2030, driven primarily by reduced workforce participation rather than short‑term sickness absence. By the end of the decade, roughly one‑third of...
Market Spotlight: Wall Street Braces for Tech Earnings and Powell’s Final Fed Meeting
Wall Street is gearing up for a "Super Bowl Wednesday" as Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta post earnings on April 29, 2026, while the Federal Reserve, led by Jerome Powell, holds a pivotal policy meeting. The tech giants are pouring...
Bloomberg Daybreak Europe: 'Lengthy' Hormuz Blockade (Podcast)
US equity‑index futures rose as investors positioned for a wave of big‑tech earnings and an upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision. Washington warned banks of secondary sanctions if they facilitate Chinese private refiners buying Iranian oil, heightening US‑China tension ahead of...
Democrats Urge Trump to Keep Ban on Chinese Cars
Over 70 Democrats, led by Rep. Debbie Dingell, sent a letter urging President Trump to keep Chinese automakers out of the United States, warning of irreversible damage to jobs, supply chains and national security. The appeal comes just before Trump’s...
FTSE 100 Live: Stocks Drop as Oil Holds Firm over $110; UK Growth Slashed
The FTSE 100 opened lower, slipping 0.2% to 10,316 as oil prices stayed above $110 per barrel and the UK’s growth outlook was sharply cut, with the Treasury estimating a £35 bn (≈$44.5 bn) hit from the Iran war. Major corporates reported mixed...
Crude Shock: Ajay Bagga on How $90 Oil Could Dent India Inc's Earnings and Test Government's Fiscal Nerve
India’s crude import bill could jump from $150 bn to $200‑$225 bn as oil prices surged from $63 to $114‑$116 per barrel, pushing the annual price outlook to around $90 per barrel. Market veteran Ajay Bagga warns the extra $50‑$75 bn cost will strain...
Hormuz Crisis Revives Thailand’s Land Bridge Plan but Business Case Still Lacking
Thailand is reviving its $30 billion land‑bridge plan that would link ports on the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea, a proposal gaining urgency after Iran’s virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul says a special...
Australia’s Inflation Surge Just Made an RBA Rate Rise More Likely
Australia’s consumer price index jumped to 4.6% year‑over‑year in March, propelled by a record 32.8% rise in fuel prices. The trimmed‑mean measure of underlying inflation reached 3.3%, still above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2‑3% target range. With markets assigning...
This Is How You’d Be Trading the Fed If You Sat on Goldman’s Desk
Goldman’s trading desk views the upcoming FOMC as a backdrop, not a market mover, with the Fed expected to hold rates amid near‑unanimous support. The real catalyst, according to the desk, is oil‑related geopolitical risk, which continues to shape inflation...
Australia Promises No Gas Tax on Existing LNG Contracts
Australia’s prime minister Anthony Albanese announced that no export tax will be imposed on existing LNG contracts, quelling calls for a 25% levy. The decision follows intense lobbying from unions, anti‑gas groups, economists and industry stakeholders. Instead, the government will...
AI Review Flags Alarming Surge in UK Yields
FWIW, this AI-generated review of the X universe over the last 24 hours takes my "understated" post on UK yields to a much more alarming level as it draws on other information in its database. #economy #markets #uk
China Pilots Crackdown on Debt‑laden Zombie Firms
1/9 Interesting SCMP article: "China’s top market regulator is intensifying its crackdown on debt-laden “zombie companies” – rolling out a pilot programme in seven economic hubs to facilitate the forced exit of unprofitable firms." https://t.co/MyTz0VUKAc
What Now? What to Do
U.S. retail executives are confronting a perfect storm of lingering tariff uncertainty and a new war with Iran that threatens oil supplies and diesel prices. The Supreme Court‑mandated tariff refunds of $160‑$180 billion remain pending, while the closure of the Strait...
Eurozone Inflation Teeters: Spain Down, Core May Dip
EZ inflation for April is now trickling in, with the Spanish number already posting a small downside surprise. Headline increases in France and Germany mind drive a further gain in the EZ headline, but the core could surprise lower due...
Hungary's Central Bank Warns Against Rushed Euro Adoption
Hungary’s central bank governor urged caution on the new government’s plan to adopt the euro, saying that a rushed process could lead to unintended negative consequences for the economy https://t.co/krQSmnDRjv via @mkasnyik https://t.co/9nMNVQwEH9
Global Monster Banks
Union Bank of India’s latest risk report links the Strait of Hormuz blockage to a sharp rise in oil prices and a looming helium shortage. Attacks on Qatar’s Ras Laffan plant have halted about 14% of global helium output, cutting off...
China Pivots to Service Consumption for Growth
1/5 Caixin: "Boosting domestic demand remains paramount, but the strategy is evolving. Driven by a resilient service sector that outpaced overall retail sales in the first quarter, Beijing is pivoting toward service consumption." https://t.co/eoPwiFskb4
HK Inflation Near Target, Currency Board Proves Effective
Hong Kong’s inflation rate comes in at 1.7%/yr in March, JUST A TAD below its de facto 2%/yr inflation target. Hong Kong’s Dollar-Based Currency Board is WORKING LIKE A CHARM. https://t.co/LLVZcUcIV2
Are Investors Underestimating Emerging Markets?
In this episode, Andrew Van Sickle talks with Charles Gillings, manager of the Utilico Emerging Markets Trust, about why investors may be undervaluing emerging markets and the fund’s sector‑focused, infrastructure‑centric approach. Gillings explains that the recent EM rally was driven...
Jensen Huang Fails to Justify Export Controls' Ineffectiveness
Jensen Huang never managed to give a coherent argument for why export controls are ineffective. https://t.co/eF3UUpfWHO
Japan Secures First Oil Tanker Passage Through Hormuz
Japan is engaging with Iran for safe passage of its ships through Hormuz, says PM Takaichi 🇯🇵🤝🇮🇷 A laden oil supertanker linked to Japan (Idemitsu Maru) traveled through the strait yesterday. It's the first Japan oil carrier to leave the region...
The Transatlantic MAGA Fantasy
President Donald Trump’s second term has seen a dramatic shift in U.S. policy toward Europe, highlighted by a public threat to annex Denmark’s Greenland and a series of tariff hikes on EU steel and aluminum. His administration has openly courted...
US Treasury Cracks Down on Iran's Crypto Shadow Banking
🚨JUST IN Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent just said: “The Treasury Department, through Economic Fury, has targeted Iran’s international shadow banking infrastructure, access to crypto.” https://t.co/yQ6SEjcmVQ
Singapore Ranks #2 Happiest Thanks to Strong Economy
In Hanke’s 2025 Annual Misery Index, Singapore ranks as the SECOND HAPPIEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD. Low inflation, minimal unemployment, and stable lending rates, combined with strong real GDP growth per capita, drive Singapore's outstanding performance. https://t.co/HHD87uJ00I
Why Tariff Refunds Won’t Necessarily Go Back to Consumers
Retailers are poised to claim refunds for the $175 billion in tariffs deemed illegal after the Supreme Court struck them down. Starting April 20, firms can request reimbursements under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, but the refunded amount reflects only the...
Are Investors Underestimating Emerging Markets? MoneyWeek Talks
Charles Jillings, co‑fund manager of Utilico Emerging Markets Trust, highlighted the resilience of emerging economies amid Trump‑era tariffs and lingering fallout from the Iran conflict. He argued that markets such as Brazil and the Philippines remain undervalued despite solid growth...
US Inefficiency Drives Costs, Delays, Unsustainable China Ban
US pays 10x $$$ and has 10x delays for lots of products now they restrict imports from China. Self destruct button? GDP so high because of their massive inefficiencies and middlemen costs. Nothing to do with functional capitalism. This is...
Will Operation Economic Fury Work?
President Trump has directed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, aiming to choke the regime’s oil exports and pressure Tehran into nuclear concessions. The strategy, discussed in a recent Situation Room meeting, would prevent shipping to and...
China's LNG Imports Plunge to Eight‑year Low Amid Middle East Conflict
DEMAND DESTRUCTION: China's LNG imports are on track to hit an 8-year low 🇨🇳🚢 The Middle East conflict is choking supply of LNG to China. It is also boosting spot prices, discouraging Chinese firms to buy replacements China can instead turn to...
UAE Liquidity Aid Could Cement Dollar Dominance
China probably is short on liquidity If the UAE provides it via US swap lines, that strengthens US dollar dominance, right @izakaminska ? #China #DollarSystem #Geoeconomics #Yuan #GlobalFinance
Saudi Aramco Halts LPG Exports Through May After Damage
Saudi Aramco announced it will suspend LPG exports from its Juaymah facility through May after a support structure collapsed in February, delaying repairs. The halt adds to regional supply constraints already strained by the near‑closure of the Strait of Hormuz....
Shutdown Timeline Exaggerated; Iran's Production Halt Won’t Ensure Defeat
The storage story is real—but the “X days to shutdown” framing is overstated @AyeshaTariq It's a model built on assumptions Iran shutting in production will cause its defeat Stop being played by the propaganda machine #OilMarkets #Iran #Energy #Hormuz #Geopolitics
US-Israeli Conflict Fuels Record Yuan Surge
Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, China’s currency is gaining. Cross-border portfolio flows hit $712 BILLION in March (+40% vs last year), while the yuan’s share of China’s international transactions rose above 56%, the highest on record. CHINA = BIG WINNER....