Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
The Supreme Court overturned key Trump tariffs, eliminating roughly $1.7 trillion in projected revenue through 2036 and raising concerns about a national debt surge to $58 trillion, or 125% of GDP. In response, the White House invoked a temporary 10‑15% emergency tariff under the Trade Act, while a coalition of states challenges the move in court. Advisors are weighing the impact on internationally exposed equities, consumer‑discretionary and staple firms, and the broader implications for Treasury yields and equity valuations. The debate highlights that tariff revenue offsets less than 10% of the federal deficit, underscoring deeper fiscal challenges beyond trade policy.
The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that President Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, striking down most of his tariffs and opening the door to roughly $175 billion in refunds. A federal judge ordered Customs and Border...
In a keynote at the IMF‑Bank of Thailand “Asia in 2050” conference, Bank of Korea Governor Chang Yong Rhee highlighted Asia’s remarkable economic transformation since 1991. Per‑capita GDP across the region has risen nearly eightfold, lifting more than 1.2 billion people...
Robert Antoshak argues that a new global apparel ecosystem is forming as manufacturers scramble to bypass volatile tariff regimes. Companies are reshoring, leveraging digital cut‑and‑sew platforms, and adopting sustainable fibers to meet shifting consumer expectations. Trade policy volatility is prompting...
Bank merger‑and‑acquisition activity surged in 2025, but the war in Iran has introduced sharp stock‑price volatility that threatens to stall the consolidation wave. Falling bank‑stock values erode the equity currency traditionally used to fund deals, pushing pricing down and making...
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) received a Central Banking Publications award for its modern approach to foreign‑reserve management. The accolade recognizes the bank’s recent overhaul of its reserve‑management framework, featuring a refreshed strategic asset allocation, active risk‑management techniques, and...
How come the India VIX below is lower than it was during the Russia-Ukraine crisis? The US Vix is also lower than last year's wars and the Tariff announcements. Either we have not discounted the real extent of what has...
Turkey's current account posted a $6.8 bn deficit in January, far above the $4.8 bn forecast and analysts' $5.4 bn estimate. The gap was amplified by the Central Bank of Turkey's methodological change, which has retroactively added $8.9 bn to interest‑payment calculations since September 2020....
The Middle East war and Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have driven oil prices to $87‑$120 a barrel and disrupted Gulf fertilizer exports. Fertilizer futures jumped over 10% on the first trading day, with analysts expecting a 17%...
Tiff Macklem warned that the financial system’s growing reliance on non‑bank players is creating new systemic vulnerabilities, especially through hedge‑fund leveraged trading in sovereign bonds and the rapid expansion of private credit. He highlighted that hedge funds now purchase up...
Placer.ai’s February 2026 macro analysis shows a bifurcated U.S. consumer—price‑sensitive shoppers gravitate toward value retailers while still allocating funds for discretionary indulgences. Retail foot‑traffic remains broadly positive YoY despite weather‑driven dips, and e‑commerce fulfillment centers are logging high‑single‑digit visit growth fueled...
“Our rules of thumb are that a sustained 10% increase in oil prices boosts headline and core PCE inflation by 0.2pp and 0.04pp, respectively, while lowering GDP growth by around 0.1pp. The growth impact from a temporary price increase that...
UK borrowing costs are on the rise once more this morning. Per the Bloomberg chart below, yields on 10-year British government bonds are again above 4.70% as the war in the Middle East pushes Brent oil north of $95 once again. This...
Costa Rica is leveraging its globally recognised sustainability record, highly educated bilingual workforce, and long‑standing institutional stability to attract high‑value, knowledge‑intensive investment. The "essential COSTA RICA" brand, coordinated across trade, tourism and foreign affairs agencies, underpins a data‑driven strategy that showcases measurable...
If you compress several centuries of economic history into a single visualization, one thing becomes obvious. Stability is the exception. Not the rule. Power in the global economy has always shifted. In the 1600s, Asia dominated. China and the Mughal Empire accounted for...
In this episode, Fred Neumann and Harold van der Linde explore the second‑round effects of the Middle East conflict on Asian economies, highlighting how rising oil and gas prices ripple through raw material costs such as plastics, cement, fertilizers, and...
The Pentagon’s new National Defense Strategy emphasizes a “strong denial defense” along the First Island Chain, shifting credibility from forward troop presence to the ability of allies like the Philippines to sustain resilient, repairable infrastructure under fire. Manila’s geographic position...
Eurozone households are the first to feel the impact of the latest oil price shock as retail fuel prices surge across the region. A 50‑litre tank now costs €4.5‑€13 more for petrol and €8.4‑€21.5 more for diesel, with Germany seeing...
The article highlights that Africa’s intra‑regional trade finance market exceeds $60 bn but remains vastly under‑served, with only 7‑25% of demand met. Post‑2008 regulatory changes pushed global banks to partner with local institutions, making regional banks the primary conduit for cross‑border...
South Korean lawmakers approved a law establishing a public corporation to oversee a $350 billion pledge of U.S. investments, aimed at averting new U.S. tariffs. The agreement, struck in November, allocates $200 billion to semiconductor and high‑tech projects and $150 billion to shipbuilding,...
Asian Development Bank warns the Philippines could experience a serious GDP contraction as it pursues a 75% greenhouse‑gas emissions cut by 2030. The bank’s March 12 report cites high mitigation costs, price pressures and a lack of productivity measures, which...
The Entire Global Economy in 2026 in One Chart (GDP, PPP) Key Takeaways: 👉 Purchasing power parity (PPP) adjusts a country’s economic output to account for differences in cost of living. 👉 The global economy sits at over $219 trillion by this metric, of which...
Macro: private-credit stress rising; Key: valuation opacity at Blue Owl, higher rates; Risks: hidden losses, redemptions; Trade: cut private-credit exposure. Takeaway: market to reprice risk. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
The Iran‑Israel war has shut Gulf transit hubs, wiping out up to 10% of global airline capacity. More than 46,000 flights were cancelled, driving fare spikes such as an 80% rise on Sydney‑London economy tickets and near‑tripling on Singapore‑London routes....
🚨Iran is still pushing oil through the Strait of Hormuz: At least 11.7 million barrels of Iranian crude have passed through the strait since February 28, all headed to China. Many tankers have "gone dark," switching off their GPS tracking systems...👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-iea-has-proposed-the-largest-emergency-oil-release-from-strategic-reserves-in-history
The Japanese yen slipped to roughly 159 per dollar on Thursday, its weakest level since mid‑January, as oil prices surged past $100 a barrel. Despite a recent release of foreign‑exchange reserves aimed at supporting the currency, the yen continued to...
The India‑Middle East‑Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) was unveiled under India’s G20 presidency as a multi‑layered framework linking market access, digital connectivity and risk mitigation. Despite the shock of the October 7 Hamas attack and subsequent Iran‑Israel‑U.S. clashes, India has kept the...
Escalating Middle East tensions are pushing diesel prices higher, tightening operating costs for Australian rural producers. The surge is prompting both crop and grazing operators to reassess input purchases, delay acquisitions, and prioritize fuel‑efficient assets. Valuers and industry leaders warn...
Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said ten of the carrier’s vessels are trapped in the Persian Gulf after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. The ships have been grouped offshore for safety, with one under a U.S. Military Sealift Command contract....
Oil price back to $100. Even though the EIA said member countries will release 400m barrels of oil. At this rate…this is just the beginning the oil shock will send to the economy, supply chain and consumer price.
China is expanding its ban on steel mills buying BHP iron ore again, adding another product to the blacklist. They've been negotiating for BHP for ~6 months now and there's no end in sight. This is the second ban in...
Geopolitical tensions with Iran triggered a rare, coordinated drawdown across the world’s largest multi‑strategy hedge funds. Citadel’s Wellington fund fell about 2%, Millennium Management incurred roughly $1.5 billion in losses, and Coatue saw a 3.8% decline. The episode exposed how broad...
If the conflict lasts, Indonesia will raise fuel prices, which is what it did by end 2022 as the subsidy rose by 30bn…
US launches probe into trading partners including the EU, China and India https://t.co/JsVy4bXFEc Announcement: https://t.co/UgsOQ97Tzp
China’s economy is largely insulated from the recent global energy price spikes triggered by Middle East tensions. Although oil and gas import bills will rise, long‑term contracts, domestic coal dominance, and sizable strategic reserves limit cost pass‑through. The country’s low...
The IEA says the war in turning into the biggest oil disruption in world history https://t.co/UJZqGyrhUP
Transport services inflation will be the first core CPI/HICP components to feel the heat, though these data are very sensitive to ampling in any given month.
Amid the escalating war in Iran, investors have turned to U.S. technology equities as a defensive position. The International Energy Agency responded to the energy shock by releasing its largest‑ever strategic oil reserve drawdown, while U.S. consumer‑price inflation held steady...
German 10-year yield climbs to highest since 2023 on inflation fears https://t.co/cvav2xEd32 via @highisland https://t.co/oIAhZehdiG
What are the consequences for energy markets and the transition of a potential long disruption to the Strait of Hormuz? TLDR: It’s a *lot* easier to replace 20% of LNG (15% of natgas supply) with wind and solar than it...
Overnight Iran reacted to the IEA's oil release intensifying its attacks on regional energy targets, including two small-sized fuel tankers in Iraq. Tehran knows oil is what could force President Trump to end the war early. Still, both Brent and...
US starts trade probe into the EU, China in Trump’s tariffs revival https://t.co/Yi7oHtrATc via @hlowenkron @catherine_lucey https://t.co/DnU0Aq5dCU
Washington Post op-ed: “Chinamaxxing is an effective meme precisely because Americans still see China, the world’s second-largest country by population and only other superpower, as incredibly alien.” https://t.co/xuaBorhEus
When commodity markets and metal stocks start falling, the narrative will shift from stagflation to a deflationary recession. Every day we get closer to that outcome, the war looks like the smokescreen or precursor to the final event
Six vessels attacked in Gulf, Strait of Hormuz as war puts merchant ships on front lines https://t.co/pAYt6WBG5O
NYT op-ed: “For years, Washington’s Latin America policy has oscillated between neglect and alarmism…The result is a region that has learned to nod to U.S. concerns while quietly cashing Chinese checks.” https://t.co/fuVrwW6AHG
Who everyone I talked to at the shipowners conference today thinks is blowing up merchant ships: Trump & Hegseth Who is actually blowing up ships: Iran
We are witnessing the end of globalization If the US military with the massive armada assembled within 500 miles can’t protect ships in this region, we stand little chance of protecting our container shipments from Asia in the event of a...
Food Inflation in America. Not good. Looking at major categories of foods. Some continued to spike (beef, coffee), others continued to plunge (eggs), others changed less. Overall food inflation accelerated on top of already very high prices https://t.co/taRrQJWe4I https://t.co/IdfYxkT1G2
China has just ordered an immediate ban on refined fuel exports in March to manage any potential domestic fuel shortages. A week ago they asked refiners nicely and just targeted new contracts, so this is a step up
