Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
Options traders are pricing in heightened risk as the Iran‑Israel conflict escalates, driving premiums on oil‑related contracts. CME Group’s CEO Terry Duffy warned that any U.S. attempt to directly intervene in oil futures could trigger a “biblical disaster,” potentially destabilizing global markets. At a Cboe press event, executives highlighted new event‑type contracts designed to adapt quickly to such market‑structure shocks. The convergence of geopolitical tension and regulatory warnings underscores growing uncertainty for energy investors.
The Fed can't cut because of oil. Can't hike because of jobs. Can't do nothing because the curve is screaming. Monetary policy was built for one crisis at a time. This is three.
The U.S. International Trade Commission issued a final negative determination in its antidumping and countervailing duty investigation of active anode material (AAM) imports from China. The 2‑1 vote blocks the Department of Commerce from imposing tariffs on Chinese AAM, overturning...
OOCL’s 2025 results were hit by a volatile shipping market, heightened trade tensions and new US tariffs. Revenue slipped 9.3% year‑over‑year to $9.7 billion, while EBIT and net profit plunged 42% and 41% respectively, each landing at $1.5 billion. Despite the earnings...
We've been looking at scenarios on the total volume of goods pumped through the economy, based on current geopolitical developments: Our general view is that the impact of high oil prices isn't as dramatic as one would initially fear in...
The Federal Reserve’s rate‑setting calculus is increasingly tied to volatile energy prices, which have surged amid geopolitical tensions and supply constraints. Market participants are using SOFR and Fed Funds futures to price the likelihood of upcoming policy moves, with recent...
The recent surge in global natural‑gas prices has laid bare Britain’s over‑reliance on imports, costing households roughly three times what Americans pay. The author argues that a decade‑old decision to ban on‑shore shale fracking has left the UK vulnerable, missing...
Gold prices dropped sharply on Thursday, with front‑month COMEX gold falling $49.8 (‑0.96%) to $5,129.30 per ounce. The decline coincided with crude oil jumping to $94.50 a barrel, up $7.25 (8.31%) as Iran intensified threats and the Strait of Hormuz...
The airport municipal bond sector has demonstrated strong credit resilience, weathering crises such as 9/11, COVID‑19, and recent geopolitical turbulence. Federal relief via the CARES Act prevented mass downgrades, and General Aviation Revenue Bonds (GARBs) have maintained stable, investment‑grade ratings...
Core CPI remained mild in January‑February 2026, but the Fed‑preferred core PCE is projected to outpace it sharply. Economists expect core PCE to rise about 3.1% year‑over‑year, creating the widest CPI‑PCE gap in decades. The divergence stems from differing weightings,...
Not gonna sugar coat this and do not care if it costs me my new Pentagon press credentials and access to this administration. The left smeared my name in a major WAPO hit piece and the right can do the...
Premier Li Qiang added the Consumer Price Index to the 2026 Government Work Report, formally acknowledging deflation for the first time. The annual GDP growth target was lowered to 4.5‑5 percent, the first sub‑5 percent goal since 1991. While a trade surplus...
On March 12, Atlantic Council’s Matthew Kroenig appeared on The Beacon of Liberty podcast to discuss the Truman Doctrine. He traced the policy’s origins to post‑World War II fears of Soviet expansion and highlighted its role in shaping early Cold War strategy. Kroenig linked...
Former President Donald Trump proclaimed victory in Kentucky even as the world faces the deepest oil supply shock in modern history, with Brent crude breaching $100 a barrel after Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, threatened U.S. bases and kept...
In this episode, IMF Assistant Director Amadou Sy explains the growing shift in African governments from external, often dollar‑denominated debt to domestic, local‑currency debt. He outlines the benefits of reduced currency risk and greater fiscal flexibility, while noting higher borrowing...
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, choking the primary aluminium supply chain that relies on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) smelters. Force‑majeure notices from Qatalum and Aluminium of Bahrain have driven premiums higher, with...
U.S. equities posted their worst weekly decline in nearly a year as an energy‑driven stagflation scenario unfolded following a sharp spike in oil prices tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The article attributes the shock to escalating...
The U.S. International Trade Commission has opened a fact‑finding investigation into how the United States‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement’s automotive rules of origin affect U.S. competitiveness, especially for advanced and electric vehicles. The probe follows two earlier biennial reports that highlighted mismatches between...
U.S./Iran war is not (yet) an oil shock Oil futures prices have increased by more than a third since Israel and the United States attacked Iran and almost two-thirds since the start of the year but the increase is not yet...
Albert Edwards warns that markets are overlooking the inflationary pressure from a new oil price spike, arguing that bond yields could rise if the risk is ignored. He notes that unlike the previous surge, stimulus cash has largely vanished, so...
Jim Bianco joins MacroVoices to dissect the market fallout from the recent Iran conflict, noting sharp oil price spikes and heightened volatility. He evaluates how potential Fed chair Kevin Warsh could reshape monetary policy amid rising inflation pressures. The discussion...
America’s Strategic Oil Exports @WSJ Great and important read. I still believe the WSJ Editorial Board does some of the most balanced and informed analysis in the media. https://t.co/sxJ6f76VCl The International Energy Agency said Tuesday that its 32 member countries will...
Airfares are beginning to climb as jet-fuel prices surge following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, pushing airlines to raise fares and fuel surcharges while warning of more increases if the conflict drags on. Carriers say travel demand remains strong,...
In this Inflation Monitor episode, J.P. Morgan economists Nora Santivani, Raphael Brunager, Mike Hansen, and Alan Monks examine how the recent oil price shock—spiking Brent to around $100—affects headline and core inflation across the Eurozone, United States, and United Kingdom....
Emerging‑market indices have outperformed both the MSCI World and the S&P 500 in early 2026, driven by easing inflation, a weaker dollar, and shifting investor sentiment. Forecasts show EM economies growing around 4 % this year, roughly three times the pace of...
The United States and Israel’s February 28 strikes on Iran triggered an immediate retreat by major maritime insurers, who canceled or sharply repriced war‑risk coverage for vessels transiting the Persian Gulf. Premiums surged by more than 1,000%, making tanker voyages...
The Strait of Hormuz isn’t just about oil and gas. It’s about fertilizer. It’s about the supply chains that feed the world. Disrupt them, and the consequences show up months later—smaller harvests, tighter grain supplies, and higher food prices.
The escalating Middle East conflict is pushing crude oil toward $200 a barrel, straining global markets. The Philippines’ strategic reserves only cover about 45 days, leaving the nation exposed to price shocks. A newly mandated four‑day work week will shift...
If Hormuz flows do not resume for a month, that's the worst-case disruption duration my colleagues at @RapidanEnergy and I modeled last June when we mapped out a US-Iran conflict on global oil and LNG markets and prices. We modeled disruption...
The IMF’s 2025 Article IV report highlights Canada’s dual challenge: external uncertainty from shifting U.S. tariff policy under former President Trump and deep‑seated internal productivity weaknesses. Output per hour is about 30 percent lower than the United States, with the gap widening...
In the inaugural Gundlach Unlocked webcast, DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach warned that inflation is likely to stay above the Fed’s 2 % target, long‑term rates remain elevated despite recent cuts, and the U.S. dollar may enter a weaker phase. He outlined...
Renewables are the only exit strategy: Day 12 (updated) impact of the Israel and US attack, tracking Force Majeure, surcharges, and the explosive inflation behind the headlines FORCE MAJEURE IMPLICATIONS >Shell: FM on all LNG cargoes from Qatar >QatarEnergy: Pretty much totally down,...
The Trump administration casts the United States as a global defender of liberty while domestic democratic norms crumble. It justifies a hard line on Iran with rhetoric about security and democracy, echoing decades‑old foreign policy scripts. Meanwhile, attacks on elections,...
The ongoing Middle East conflict is driving a sharp rise in fuel prices, forcing companies like Southwest Airlines and UBS to brace for higher operating costs. Traditional IT operating models, built for gradual stress, are buckling under the rapid, continuous...
At the start of the year, the market was pricing in 2 Fed rate cuts. Today: just one cut, and not until the September meeting. The reality is inflation never moved down to the Fed's 2% target and is now moving higher....
The Iran War could trigger a global economic crisis and you won’t find a better summary of why than this one sentence from Rachel Ziemba below. Yes, this is about gas prices. But it’s also about: - the cost of food...
Mortgage Rates Go Up: As The Price Of Oil Goes Up So Do Mortgage Rates Unless the War In The Middle East ends quickly we will soon see most Mortgage Rates in Canada start with a 4 And ZERO chance of Bank...
The president expresses a desire for a rare intermeeting rate cut. The last one occurred on March 15, 2020, as the Covid shock overwhelmed financial markets. The Fed's next scheduled policy decision announcement—widely expected to be no change in rates—is in...
Brent crude price, Iran-War-to-date My expectation is that this rough/steady slope will hope, grinding $3+/bbl higher each and every day this crisis persists, always with the possibility of big lurches higher should Iran successfully take out major regional oil infrastructure. https://t.co/nwGMcg7rja
Cannot agree more. DO NOT end US oil exports. Our integration into the global oil market is essential. Protectionism would be a horrible idea right now.
Iran war inflation continues to push up the terminal rate, now 3.37. This had been trading around 3% a month ago. No surprise UST front end getting shellacked with 2s 3.74 and 5s 3.86 https://t.co/8FiC830XW4
🚨 Mid-week Iran War and oil market update for Commodity Context subscribers. More regular coverage of the acute volatility across the increasingly strained oil complex in Oil Context Weekly tomorrow. https://t.co/lvkkTTJr9s
There also is a world market for oil. When oil prices go up in Europe and Asia, people here pay more. Even a Trump-Energy Secretary should know this.
Saudi Arabia is booking more and more super oil tankers at sky high rates (>$450,000 a day vs pre-war levels of $100,000 a day) to shift crude from the Red Sea into global markets.
Could the Bank of England defer a possible rate cut next week? https://t.co/f0T8D0P94L #GBP #FOMC
NEW: Russia is earning up to $150mn a day in extra budget revenues from oil sales amid price rises thanks to the US-Iran war. Moscow has so far earned $1.3bn-$1.9bn from taxes on oil exports and could receive $3.3bn-$4.9bn in total...
FWIW - The greatest risk to the unfolding events in Iran was, is, and will continue to be the backdrop of invulnerability that existed moments before hand.
Today's Opening Bell We covered a lot today- asset chapters provided US Dollar Testing Yearly High as Iran War Escalates https://t.co/7jdA7902Rt
Rational arguments are made as to why the Iran war won't be over soon, even as it "should" be over to prevent an economic calamity. Yet the market prices this as a temporary shock. What gives? What's the market seeing that...
"Indian Source Says Iran to Allow India-Flagged Tankers Through Hormuz as First Tanker Arrives" Looks like the Strait of Hormuz will be the new Bab el-Mandeb 🍻 https://t.co/370QXTDJC2
