Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
Armed attacks on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in early 2026 forced shipping lines to reroute around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. The Cape route, once a contingency, saw usage surge, echoing past disruptions of the Suez Canal and piracy off the Horn of Africa. While the longer voyage adds time, cost and environmental risk, it also highlights the fragility of global maritime supply chains. Experts argue that sustained African‑global cooperation is now essential to secure this emerging trade artery.
The $VIX increased 48% this week, the 21st biggest weekly spike ever. What has happened in the past following the biggest $VIX spikes? Stocks have tended to bounce back with above-average forward returns. Does this always happen? No. There are no certainties in markets,...
The Economist: “China’s new target is too low. Judging by the country’s recent record, it will set a ceiling on the government’s efforts to revive demand, perpetuating the economy’s biggest problems.” https://t.co/r2SPU7niNb
In 2025, Canadian tourism to the United States dropped 25% after heightened geopolitical tensions and Trump‑era rhetoric. The decline hit service‑oriented ZIP codes where Canadian visitors comprised at least 1% of foot traffic, leading to a 6% employment contraction in...
A new study uses large‑language‑model techniques to convert the IMF’s 70‑year AREAER narrative archive into a daily, country‑level dataset of cross‑border financial restrictions (iBoP‑C and iBoP‑S). The high‑frequency indices reveal a stop‑go pattern of financial liberalisation, with advanced economies easing...
The Federal Reserve entered 2026 optimistic about a soft landing, but the sudden Iran‑Israel conflict has driven crude above $95 per barrel, pushing gasoline prices to record highs and reviving cost‑push inflation concerns. A weak jobs report further erodes labor‑market...
russia providing iran with targeting assistance against the us military. us reducing sanctions on russian oil export. quite the both/and for putin.
The International Energy Agency’s chief announced that global oil markets are currently well‑supplied, eliminating any immediate need to tap strategic inventories. While some regions continue to experience supply disruptions, the agency sees no justification for coordinated production cuts at this...
Oil prices surged to a two‑year high after Qatar’s energy minister warned that all Gulf oil and gas exporters could cease production within days amid the escalating Middle‑East conflict. Brent crude rose above $93 a barrel, and the minister suggested...
John Jovanovic, chairman of the U.S. Export‑Import Bank, outlined a long‑term economic agenda that aligns with former President Trump’s focus on export resilience and strategic stockpiles. He detailed Project Vault, a demand‑driven critical‑mineral reserve designed to curb just‑in‑time vulnerabilities. Jovanovic also...
The Feb. 28 outbreak of war in the Middle East sparked a broad equity sell‑off during the March 2‑6 week, while energy stocks were the only sector to post gains, rising about 1 %. Treasury yields climbed across the curve, except for a...
In this episode, host David interviews Peter Conti‑Brown about his recent essay outlining three possible reforms to the Fed‑Treasury relationship, focusing on discount‑window liquidity and its stigma. They discuss recent remarks by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Treasury Secretary Janet...
US recycled plastics markets stayed largely flat this week despite the outbreak of war in the Middle East, as participants adopt a cautious stance amid feedstock and shipping uncertainty. Recycled PET prices were unchanged, while recycled PP rose 1¢/lb and...
U.S. critical‑minerals strategy is shifting from mining to processing, and Oklahoma is positioning itself as a domestic hub for refining, smelting and magnet manufacturing. The state is courting major projects, including a $4 billion aluminum smelter by Emirates Global Aluminium at...
Angie Setzer, a grain‑market analyst, pivots her column to assess how the latest war could reshape global wheat dynamics. She highlights blind spots in the traditional wheat balance sheet, noting that disrupted Black Sea routes and export restrictions are tightening...
The Trump administration is weighing the use of the 1950 Defense Production Act to override a California state court order and restart an offshore oil pipeline serving Sable Offshore. A Justice Department opinion argues the law can preempt state consent...
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer held a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman after Iran’s missile strikes on Saudi Arabia. Starmer confirmed the UK is dispatching additional fighter jets, helicopters and a destroyer to the region and...
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht‑Ravanchi warned that any EU nation joining U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran would become a "legitimate target" for Tehran. While France, Greece and Italy have dispatched warships to the region, most EU officials are...
China’s annual Two Sessions opened with Premier Li presenting a modest Government Work Report that trims the GDP growth target to 4.5‑5% and signals limited fiscal stimulus. The report re‑affirms the push for technological self‑reliance and new quality productive forces,...
Following the US‑Israel strike on Iran, energy supplies have been sharply curtailed, pushing oil and fertilizer markets into scarcity and igniting a rapid rise in inflation expectations. At the same time, government bond yields have climbed, reflecting investors’ shift to...
Brazilian steel slab exports more than doubled in February, reaching 835,327 metric tonnes, up 117% year‑over‑year. The United States and the European Union drove the surge, with U.S. shipments rising 54% despite 50% tariffs and EU imports jumping from 50...
The upcoming week (March 7‑13, 2026) is packed with macroeconomic releases and policy events. Central banks in Pakistan, Turkey, Peru and Serbia will hold monetary policy reviews, while the United States publishes a full slate of data including quarterly GDP, PCE deflator,...
U.S. mortgage rates slipped below 6% for the first time in over three years, reviving affordability and prompting forecasts of an 8% rise in home sales by 2026. Despite the rate dip, new‑home construction is expected to decline modestly, with...
Container shipping giant CMA CGM warned that its 2025 revenue and profit will fall, signalling a tougher outlook for the sector. The company projects only moderate growth in 2026, with freight rates likely to be influenced by escalating tensions in the...
The Fed’s biggest fear has always been having to choose between fighting inflation and protecting jobs. Friday’s employment report brought that dilemma a step closer. “Let’s not overreact to one month’s numbers, but an environment in which inflation is rising and...
Andy makes a great point here around potential L/S positioning in the oil and gas space. I think chasing the physical commodities up a tree here is dangerous but I still really like oil and nat gas equities for two...
Canada’s forced‑labour import prohibition remains largely unenforced, with the CBSA having detained only one shipment confirmed as forced‑labour since 2021. A private‑member Bill C-251 is advancing, proposing a rebuttable presumption that goods from certain entities are tainted unless proven otherwise....
Oil shocks get headlines. Diesel shocks stop the world Trucks, ships, mines, farms, trains, planes & militaries all run on it Persian Gulf crude is ideal for making it Diesel fuel price hikes are the real killers of the economy #diesel #oilmarkets #energy #Hormuz...
Hormuz carries about one-fifth of global oil supply But roughly one-third of seaborne oil trade normally pass thru the Strait The real shock is 35% of globally traded oil. Peak oil is today’s reality. #oil #energy #Hormuz #geopolitics #EnergyMarkets https://t.co/ENXgbxfCcf
Baker McKenzie highlights a sweeping overhaul of Canada’s trade‑remedies regime, with the CBSA making annual administrative reviews the default for updating normal values, export prices and subsidy amounts. The agency recorded a near‑record number of anti‑dumping and countervailing duty investigations...
WTI Crude Oil prices spiked 36% this week to $91/barrel. This was the 2nd biggest weekly increase in the last 40 years, trailing only the 2020 Covid rebound after Crude Oil prices crashed to $15/barrel. Roughly 20% of global oil supply passes...
US offers a $20B maritime war-risk reinsurance backstop to coax tankers back into the Gulf No one wants it It doesn’t provide shipowners the incentive they need to sail into a war zone. #Hormuz #oilmarkets #shipping #geopolitics
Nintendo has filed a lawsuit against the United States government alleging that tariffs imposed under former President Donald Trump's executive orders violate the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The complaint, lodged in the United States Court of International Trade,...
The S&P 500 fell 1.3% today, its 5th daily decline so far this year with a loss above 1%. Expect to see many more of these days in the coming weeks/months - the average year since 1928 has 29...
There are measurement issues, and they go both ways. But what is really important for this lying hunk of shit is that whatever problems raise the measured rate of inflation now were also there UNDER Biden. Which means Trump got...
Delivered prices for medium sour Alaska North Slope (ANS) crude hit a record high on Thursday, trading around an $8.30 per barrel premium to July Ice Brent, the highest since Argus began tracking in January 2018. Purchases by South Korean...
It gets harder to do this when oil starts ripping. Has historically been a “the cycle is close to being over” signal
Bolivia's inflation remains out of control at 19.56%/yr. That is nearly 4x its August 2024 rate of 5.2%/yr. To kill inflation, Bolivia must dollarize. https://t.co/oK5i4Lims6
Boeing is reportedly close to securing a record 500‑plane order from China, primarily 737 Max jets, with an additional 100 wide‑body aircraft under discussion. Sources say the deal could be unveiled during President Trump’s Beijing visit from March 31 to...
Supply of Labor Fell in 2025 on Immigration Crackdown: Massive Change in Labor Market Dynamics that Explains a Lot. The annual adjustments of the labor force to the new population estimates are in, and they’re revealing https://t.co/MX3qqP698c https://t.co/slvC9NEfqW
This may not be WWIII. But it could be the 1930s moment of our era, writes @nfergus He notes, if the Iran war drags on and oil flows break, the shock could rival the 1970s. I'D SAY WE'RE ALREADY THERE WITH...
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio described Europe as America’s cultural "child," sparking a series of candid discussions in Paris about France’s perceived decline. French intellectuals and policymakers voiced deep pessimism over migration, identity, and stagnant economics, echoing Rubio’s critique...
So in the same day we got negative data points/price action on: -jobs -oil -private credit -AI capex intentions
In the latest Fox News poll TRUMP IS TANKING. His disapproval rating on the cost of living is 67% and 63% disapprove of his tariff policies. THE TARIFF MAN = IN THE TANK. https://t.co/cPG2lx1syb
Gemini Cooperation announced the suspension of several Middle East services, including routes to Europe and Asia, as well as regional shuttle operations, citing the escalating war in the Gulf. The alliance, which includes Maersk and Hapag‑Lloyd, is launching a new...
Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim nation, with a Muslim population of over 240 million, has suspended all discussions on the proposed Board of Peace. Leading Indonesian Muslim groups have called for an exit from the Board and an end to the...
if you expected a gain of 55K jobs and the economy instead lost 92K and you thought two months ago the economy gained 48K jobs, but it turns out it lost 17K i mean what are we even doing here
Great to have @Seawolfcap back for this week's "FND" on our WAWD @Substack. We discuss the impact of the war in Iran on the economy & markets & share some thoughts on $CVNA $AXP $APO #GOLD #ENERGY $RVI #privatecredit #AI...
Since last week, average US gasoline prices are up 27 cents to $3.25 per gallon. WAR = COSTS AMERICANS AN ARM AND A LEG. https://t.co/2wqMMXwNZP
Outside of a handful of months in 2020 the Asian unemployment rate has been below the overall unemployment rate for the entirety of the last 20 years, but it popped above in February: https://t.co/i10DDosA0u
