Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
Federal Reserve President Christopher Hammack warned that inflation remains too high and broadly based, signaling that the central bank will likely keep interest rates on hold for an extended period. He reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to its inflation mandate while expressing confidence in its ability to manage price and labor pressures. Simultaneously, Hammack emphasized the resilience of the U.S. dollar’s global role, citing strong U.S. fundamentals, legal credibility, and emerging stablecoin demand. He noted that neither the euro nor other currencies are poised to displace the dollar soon.
I think this should be getting more attention. Everything is about the rate of change. While I don't think this war 'goes away' soon, I wonder if today's sell off is people afraid of holding risk into a weekend due...
Another horrendous jobs report saved mortgage rates today. Had it come in hot, we'd likely have a 30-year fixed closer to 6.25% again during peak home buying season. Granted, w/o the conflict in Iran we'd probably be at 5.875% or lower...
The Logistics Manager’s Index rose to 61.5 in February, the strongest reading since February 2025 and above the long‑term average of 61.3. Inventory levels slipped to 53.8 while inventory cost pressure eased, yet warehousing utilization accelerated and transportation prices jumped...
SPX ( US500 ) Sells closed fully today to end the week. Although we still remain bearish on SPX , especially after today's "too bad" US jobs data but we also have to understand that indices can see sharp pullbacks on...
Perfect fundamental picture is almost set for Gold bulls Although if a Geopolitical de-escalation happens , it can cause a dip ( but very likely it will be quickly bought ) It's about time now only
China’s Communist Party frames its far‑reaching global actions as defensive, even as it expands military capabilities, maritime claims and economic influence. This self‑perception stems from a blend of historic victimhood and a belief in inherent peacefulness, which turns defensive intent...
With Oil prices nearing $100 already , risks of a potential de-escalation keep on rising. I may be wrong , maybe oil prices will remain elevated for months , who knows , I am just saying what has the higher probability...
BTW, oil rallied an additional 43% over the next 2 months. Trump will do everything he can to open the strait of Hormuz and prevent a similar outcome. As I noted in an earlier post this week, I expect it...
South Korean President Lee Jae‑myung visited the Philippines on March 3‑4, 2026, marking the 77th anniversary of diplomatic ties and signing ten memoranda of understanding across AI, cybersecurity, defense, and energy. The two leaders pledged deeper cooperation on critical minerals, leveraging...
An interesting feature of this market, similar to what @kevinmuir has pointed out ... Is that most of my clients are less worried about the downside in stocks and EMFX ... and more worried about missing the rip when the...
Geopolitical tensions between the U.S., Israel and Iran have rattled traditional safe‑haven assets, with gold and consumer staples slipping as oil prices breach $100 per barrel. UBS recommends pharmaceutical stocks as the new defensive refuge, citing their inverse link to...
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said the central bank’s policy stance remains appropriate despite a temporary inflation overshoot, provided expectations stay anchored. She highlighted that inflation is projected to meet the 2% target over the medium term, reinforcing a...
In a March 2026 speech, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel argued that, despite calls for a dual mandate, single‑mandate and dual‑mandate central banks usually adopt similar policy actions because price stability constrains any employment‑focused easing. She highlighted that more...
Episode 100 of TradeWinds' Wavelength podcast examines the shipping fallout from the US‑Israel attacks on Iran and the broader Operation Epic Fury. It details how the conflict has driven VLCC day rates toward record levels and sparked debate over war‑risk insurance coverage in...
The U.S. labor market contracted in February as nonfarm payrolls dropped by 92,000, marking the second‑largest monthly loss since early 2025. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% and the labor‑force participation rate fell to 62.0%, the lowest level since...
The episode examines the immediate impact of the Middle East war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on global LPG markets, focusing on sharp price spikes in Asia's forward curve, especially the August Faris Index, which jumped 24%...
To all my Economics / Wellbeing / Happiness / Flourishing expert friends, what are your thoughts on GoogleDeep Mind's search for a "Director, AGI Economics?" This is from the Job Application: "Artificial Intelligence could be one of humanity’s most useful...
ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber met Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in Tokyo as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated, emphasizing energy security and confirming that the Ruwais LNG export facility remains on schedule. He reassured that construction has not...
The latest BLS jobs report showed U.S. employment contracting by 92,000 jobs in February, with a further 69,000‑job downgrade for December and January, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.4%. Over the past 12 months, employers added just 156,000 jobs—far below...
This appears to be the UAE tug Mussafah 2. Reports are that all eight crewmembers have been lost. The tug was responding to the containership Safeen Prestige which was in distress after being attacked by Iran. This...
The February nonfarm payroll report showed an unexpected 92,000‑job decline, with truck transportation employment slipping by 500 to 1,462,500 positions. This marks a 22,100‑job shortfall compared with a year earlier and a net loss of 4,700 jobs since December. Warehouse...
"U.S. Success Against Iran Could Be a Game Changer for World Oil Security," @WSJ https://t.co/ICXqOkIlg2 If Iran, along with Venezuela, is soon ruled by a regime friendly or at least not hostile toward the U.S., that would neutralize two oil exporters...
In a recent CNN interview, political analyst Hajjar Chemali warned that Iran’s economy is spiraling toward collapse. He highlighted hyperinflation, a depreciating rial, and shrinking oil revenues as core drivers. Chemali also noted rising unemployment and mounting public unrest as...
US retail sales slipped 0.2% month‑on‑month in January, bringing total sales to $733.5 billion, though they remain 3.2% higher than a year ago. The decline outperformed the modest growth forecast but was attributed to severe winter weather curbing brick‑and‑mortar traffic. Health‑care,...
California functions as an “energy island” because it lacks crude‑oil pipelines linking it to major domestic sources such as the Permian Basin. The state now depends on marine imports of heavier Middle‑East crude, which are processed by refineries tuned to...
In an interview with @nytimes, @Austan_Goolsbee describes February's jobs report as a "tough" one, although he stressed the importance of not overreacting to one month of data. He conceded that the combination of a weakening labor market and higher inflation risks...
China providing money to 168 ports in 90 countries. Add the very large Chinese Cosco shipping firm. China and control of global trade and international logistics. The silent trade war.
Weak February employment data, showing a loss of 92,000 jobs, coincided with oil prices climbing to $90 a barrel and U.S. gas prices jumping 10%. The mixed signals have revived investor expectations that the Federal Reserve could pivot to a...
New @ForwardGuidance chartbook just dropped for this week's episode. Wanted to call out a few we did not discuss live on the pod. Takeaway: Gold positioning length has been absolutely flushed (and these charts are few days old, before the recent...
Bracing for an oil shock, China ordered refiners to halt new diesel and gasoline export contracts and cancel existing shipments. From a week ago, their diesel prices are up 13.5%, gasoline up 11%. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = COLLATERAL DAMAGE =...
U.S. manufacturers are accelerating reshoring and onshoring, with Apple committing over $500 billion and Johnson & Johnson earmarking $55 billion for domestic production through 2029. Companies cite supply‑chain resilience, tariff pressures, and ESG goals as drivers, while surveys show cost remains the dominant factor...
The backstory on exactly how the US ceded its rare earths/critical minerals dominance is here --> https://t.co/m6IQmzrJHT
Grumbling out of China is getting louder as crude pushes higher....... I am leaning now 50/50 that the meeting with XI and Trump even happens now. Hope I am wrong because would like to see it. Time will...
CMA CGM announced a new standalone service linking India directly to the U.S. West Coast, extending its Pearl River Express loop. The weekly rotation will call at Nhava Sheva, Mundra, Karachi and Colombo, using a fleet of 13 vessels sized between 10,000...
Certainly less of a "shit yourself due to volatility" vibe to the equity basket than the commodity so far. https://t.co/jjg4da39Sf
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar are reviewing US contracts and future investment commitments. The US-Israeli war on Iran is putting investments at risk. WAR = COLLATERAL DAMAGE AND COSTS. https://t.co/YXzBzPwL7O
SPY is 2.4% from its all-time high. In the middle of a war. With oil spiking. With yields surging. The market hasn't priced in the worst case. It hasn't even priced in the base case. That's the scariest part. https://t.co/d7MxjrSyrG
𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤: Fresh launches, team moves are keeping hedge funds in growth mode, while Middle East tensions prompt firms in the Gulf to review near-term plans and continuity playbooks. Meanwhile, AI agent workflows are moving from buzzword to toolkit https://t.co/jiiupziBYa
Remember the Iraq war? It was supposed to be a cake walk that would cost US taxpayers a mere $50 billion. IT ACTUALLY COST $8 TRILLION. The US taxpayer will face sticker shock when the bill for America’s war against Iran arrives. WARS...
One of my predictions in our Climate Brink year end wrapup was that 2026 might be the first year where global clean energy investment exceeds global military spending. Unfortunately with recent wars we will likely have to wait a few more...
My friend & oil expert Javier Blas reports just what I’ve been anticipating: that the US-Israeli war on Iran would force the US to lift sanctions on Russian oil. https://t.co/4VIvPSwm63
Metals and miners have recently pulled back as investors suddenly think the Fed won’t be as dovish. Wait until they realize the policymakers are cornered into cutting rates regardless of inflation accelerating, just to keep the government’s debt affordable. That’s an explosive...
Yen could be setting up for a win-win type environment. 1. War deescalates, oil down, dollar down. 2. War escalates and everything goes to shit, capital flight from US assets, flight to Yen safe haven. It's interesting to me because there's a...
Was looking for this dollar rally upon Iran invasion but now it is at a critical juncture. Metals showing life could be signal that this is about as high as DXY gets. Despite this squeeze higher, fundamentals for USD and...
Surging inflation and sagging employment double whammy for the fragile real estate market in 2026 https://t.co/4yrdR28tG3
Chicago Booth's Anil Kashyap re:Fed's Mary Daly&Anna Paulson: "If there's anybody from the WH here, I think you should have confidence that you have 2 very thoughtful people looking at the numbers...would be a shame if that's not true 2...
Over the last 6 months, payroll employment growth has averaged -1K/month while the unemployment rate has risen +0.12pp. Consistent with the idea that we're at a shallow but still slightly-positive breakeven on the NFP side, which we're obviously not clearing over...
If only there were a monetary policy regime that made it easier for central banks to navigate such trying times… oh wait https://t.co/XA5Pw2bVIi (1/2)
With WTI now at $87, the oil price spike is now definitely in the big-enough-to-matter-to-the-US-domestic-economy zone. National average gas price is headed to about $3.80; was just $2.90 at start of Feb. I expect this increase will prove extremely popular.
