Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Trump’s Quest for More Sway Over Fed Faces Fresh Hurdles
Jerome Powell's term as Federal Reserve chair expires on May 15, but he could remain as chair pro tem if the Senate fails to confirm a successor. President Trump’s preferred candidate, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, must clear the Senate Banking Committee within 24 days. A Justice Department probe into Powell’s handling of Fed‑headquarters renovations is stalling the vote, with Republican Senator Thom Tillis refusing to move forward until the legal cloud lifts. The deadlock could keep Powell on the board until 2028, limiting Trump’s influence over monetary policy.
Supreme Court Tariff Decision Sparks Refund Claims
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6‑3 that the president lacks authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, declaring the contested tariff void. The decision has triggered a wave of refund litigation as importers seek reimbursement through...
Trump Says Iran War ‘Close to Over,’ Hints at Possible Deadline Ahead of Royal Visit
President Donald Trump told Fox News the war with Iran is "close to over" and suggested a deal could be reached before King Charles III’s April 27 White House visit. He defended the Feb. 28 joint U.S.-Israeli strikes as necessary to...
US Senate Republicans Block Bid to Rein in Trump Iran War Powers, Voting Continues
The U.S. Senate voted 51‑47 to block a Democratic resolution that would have required congressional approval before President Donald Trump could continue military operations against Iran. The measure, championed by Democrats, aimed to curb the president’s war‑powers amid escalating tensions...
White House Denies U.S. Requested Ceasefire, Says New Talks May Happen in Pakistan
The White House refuted reports that it had asked for a cease‑fire in the Iran‑Israel conflict, emphasizing that no official request has been made. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said ongoing discussions with Tehran are "productive" and could soon move to...
South Korea Has An Oil Problem. Canada Is Helping To Fix It
The Strait of Hormuz blockade has forced South Korea to look beyond the Middle East for crude, and Canada’s Trans‑Mountain Expansion (TMX) now ships oil to the Pacific, letting Korean refiners buy Western Canadian Select at about $10 per barrel...
US War on Iran Was a 'Mistake', Says Reeves
Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the United States erred by ending diplomatic talks with Iran and moving to military action, urging a swift de‑escalation. She warned that the conflict could plunge the global economy into recession, with the IMF flagging the...
Mortgage Rates Dip as Oil Eases Despite Hormuz Shutdown
Why are mortgage rates falling with the Strait of Hormuz still closed, and oil priced around $95 barrel? - Ceasefire and oil prices off their highs (was ~$110) - Hope of a peace deal or resolution (talks ongoing) - Labor is still a...
IMF Upgrades Outlook for Taiwan’s GDP
The International Monetary Fund lifted its 2026 real‑GDP forecast for Taiwan to 5.2%, up sharply from the 2.1% outlook in January. Taiwan’s own statistics agency, DGBAS, projected an even stronger 7.71% expansion, citing the resolution of US‑Taiwan tariff talks and...
Eswatini Excluded From China’s Policy
China will grant tariff‑free access to goods from 53 African nations, deliberately leaving out Eswatini because it recognizes Taiwan. Deputy Minister Chen Ming‑chi said the exclusion will have a minimal economic effect, though it may carry a psychological signal. Taiwan...
Inflation: A Molehill, Not a Mountain
U.S. consumer prices jumped 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, driven largely by a sharp rise in oil and gas costs. Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food, increased only 2.6% YoY and 0.2% month‑over‑month, below market expectations. Other gauges such...
Bitcoin Climbs as Strait Tolls Pressure Gold Reserves
One emerging narrative resulting from the Iran conflict is that Iran will more or less control the Strait of Hormuz with a “toll booth” approach and that countries might pay those tolls in Yuan or crypto. Meanwhile, the exporting countries...
Trump’s Waiver Of Jones Act Fails To Cool Oil Prices
President Trump issued a 60‑day Jones Act waiver hoping to shave a few cents off U.S. fuel costs, but oil prices remain elevated as global supply disruptions and rising crude costs dominate. Brent fell 4.2% to $95.09 per barrel and...
Carriers Redeploy Hormuz-Stranded Ships for Intra-Gulf Shuttle Operations
Container carriers are repurposing vessels stranded in the Strait of Hormuz for short‑haul shuttle services within the Gulf. CMA CGM has moved five of its 13 trapped ships into feeder routes between northern ports, while MSC, with 15 immobilized vessels, is...
Oil Spikes Trigger Swift P/E Collapses, History Repeats
The markets have been pricing for a quick end, much like what happened during the 1990 Gulf War. The analog below shows that the surge in oil prices to $100 (in today’s terms) was quickly reversed, and with it so...
Iran Offers Free Passage Through Hormuz If US Deals
Reuters: "Iran could consider allowing ships to sail freely through the Oman side of the Strait of Hormuz without risk of attack as part of proposals it has offered in negotiations with the United States if a deal is clinched...
Iran Can Withstand Two Months without Oil Exports
Iran can sustain its current oil output of roughly 3.5 million barrels per day for about two months if exports are halted, according to consultancy FGE NextantECA. The U.S. blockade that began on April 13 blocks an estimated 2 million bpd from reaching China,...
Liquidity Surge Signals Tech and Crypto Rally Ahead
The Everything Code suggests that over time the NDX has a 97% correlation with GMI Total Global Liquidity. Total Liquidity is at all time highs. NDX is following. We have been long tech stocks in GMI (and RV Pro) since Dec 2022...
India Stands by Trade Pact with US, Trade Negotiators to Visit Washington Next Week
India’s senior trade delegation, led by chief negotiator Darpan Jain, will travel to Washington from April 20‑22 to revive talks on a pending bilateral trade agreement, the first face‑to‑face meeting since October. The team says India remains committed but wants...
Question Time: Ceasefire, Oil, Rates, & the Economy (VIDEO)
Alhambra Research’s latest video examines how emerging ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East could relieve oil supply tensions, while Brent crude dipped 1.2% to around $84 a barrel. The discussion also covers the Federal Reserve’s hint at pausing rate hikes,...
Nobody Should Control the Strait of Hormuz, UAE Minister Says
UAE Minister of State for International Cooperation Reem Al Hashimy said the Strait of Hormuz must remain a free, public waterway and not be controlled by any nation. She warned that any US‑Iran security pact must include a definitive end to...
Yellen: No Dollar Alternative, US‑China Must Team on AI
Yellen says ‘no alternative’ to dollar, urges US-China cooperation for sake of the world Regarding US-China collaboration, Yellen singled out AI as an area with significant threats, requiring US and China to cooperate to ensure the safety of AI systems. “We...
Pete Hegseth Is a Clear and Present Danger to America
The blog argues that the United States’ current Iran War strategy is fundamentally flawed, warning that a ground invasion would be disastrous. It highlights how the conflict’s focus on the Strait of Hormuz threatens to disrupt global oil supplies and...
IMF Slashes Growth Outlook to 3.1% Amid Hormuz Blockade
The IMF has cut its global growth forecast to 3.1% as THE Hormuz blockade drives up oil, food, and inflation forecasts
Trump Threatens to Scrap UK Deal over Iran Stance
Seriously, what is the point of making a trade deal with the United States if the President will just pull out of it over unrelated issues or policy differences? “Trump threatens to shred UK trade deal over Starmer’s Iran war...
US Sec 301 Probe: India Rejects Allegations, Requests for Terminations of Both Investigations
India has formally rejected the U.S. Trade Representative’s Section 301 investigations into alleged excess structural capacity and forced‑labour practices, demanding a negative determination and immediate termination. The Indian Ministry of Commerce argues the initiation notice lacks specific policy evidence and relies...
China Cuts African Tariffs, Contrasting US Stance on Rare Earths
China removing tariffs from Africa imports. The opposite of the US. And the rare earths?
War and Triple Shock Push 32 Million Toward Poverty
According to the UN Development Programme, up to 32 MILLION people risk falling into poverty. A TRIPLE SHOCK of energy affordability, surging food prices, and war-linked economic slowdown is hitting the most VULNERABLE ECONOMIES. WAR = POOREST PAY THE HIGHEST PRICE. https://t.co/HQo02bwHXO
Trump Warns US-UK Trade Deal ‘Can Always Be Changed’ with Relations in ‘Sad State’
President Donald Trump warned that the U.S.-U.K. trade agreement, signed in May 2025 and featuring reduced tariffs on cars, aluminium and steel, could be altered or revoked. He linked the threat to Britain’s perceived lack of support during the U.S....
Emerging Markets Surge as Yuan Hits 3‑Year High
While risk appetite has recovered sharply amid the Strait shutdown, emerging markets doing particularly well. While the EEM ETF has climbed (inverted below), the Chinese Yuan has climbed to a 3-yr high vs the Dollar - 254 days USDCNH below...
Blockading Ports Isn’t Strategy; It’s Self‑defeating.
2025: blockading American ports. 2026: blockading Iranian ports. Same move, different flag. If your grand strategy is just “less trade for everyone,” mate, that’s not chess. That’s flipping the board. https://t.co/Re8HN1bIye
IMF Calls for Countries to Economise on Energy Supplies, and Hails UK’s Budget Deficit Improvement – as It Happened
The International Monetary Fund praised the United Kingdom for cutting its budget deficit from 6.1% of GDP in 2024 to 5.4% in 2025, and projects it will fall to 3.9% in 2026 and 1.6% by 2031, the lowest among G7...
US Oil Exporters Profit From War, Alongside Russia, Iran
US oil and gas exporters are among the war’s winners (along with Russia and Iran).
Iran and Israel's Economies Were Similar Before War
Contrary to the narratives spun in the media, prior to the US-Israeli war on Iran, the economic performances of Iran and Israel were not dramatically different. https://t.co/w0V3ueiaZm
$100 Billion Stolen: How Smuggled Oil Funds the Chaos During the Hormuz Blockade
Oil smuggling generates more than $100 billion in annual losses, creating a shadow economy that fuels criminal syndicates, militant groups, and sanctioned regimes. The illicit trade relies on low‑tech tactics—pipeline taps, ship‑to‑ship transfers, AIS spoofing—combined with sophisticated laundering through third‑country refiners....
Hungary's New PM Calls for Full EU Integration, Euro Adoption
Newly elected Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar just said the quiet bit out loud: It’s time to properly come into the EU fold and, eventually, adopt the euro https://t.co/bbLFhjl64o via @opinion @marcusashworth https://t.co/RbHXBW7qU0
WATCH: Bessent Warns that U.S. Is Launching 'Financial Equivalent' Of Bombing Iran
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that Washington is preparing a "financial equivalent" of a bombing campaign against Iran, signaling a new wave of secondary sanctions aimed at banks and firms that facilitate Iranian oil revenues. The Treasury has already...
U.S. Blockade Fuels Iran’s Shipping Disruption Strategy
The U.S. blockade is helping Iran Iran’s play: disrupt shipping, break the system. U.S. response: disrupt shipping even more. That’s not counter-strategy—it’s reinforcement. #Oil #Energy #Geopolitics https://t.co/Kz2aYw9QG3
The Iran War Is Not About China
The ongoing Iran war is driven primarily by U.S. policy choices, Israeli strategic calculations, and Iran’s reactive posture, not by Chinese orchestration. While Beijing has engaged in visible diplomacy—shuttle missions, telephone outreach, and a five‑point peace proposal—it has refrained from...
Under-Pressure Finance Ministers Call for Full Iran War Ceasefire
Finance ministers from eleven countries, led by Britain, issued a joint statement urging the United States, Israel and Iran to fully implement the ceasefire agreed earlier this month. The declaration came a day after the IMF lowered its global growth...
US Ambassador Meets Oil Minister Puri over Expanding Energy Purchases
U.S. Ambassador to India Sergio Gor met with Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri to discuss expanding American energy supplies to New Delhi. The talks come as India has accelerated imports of U.S. LPG and LNG following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Both...
Luxury Brand Slumps Signal Stagflation Ahead
This may have flown under the radar: Keep an eye on luxury brands starting to report weaker results. They’re often a leading indicator of what’s coming for the broader consumer. The current environment is deeply stagflationary. https://t.co/53453IX0Fd https://t.co/qvZM0cAjOO
US CENTCOM Says Blockade of Iranian Ports Halts 90% of Sea Trade
U.S. Central Command announced that its naval blockade of Iran’s ports is fully operational, halting virtually all sea‑borne trade within 36 hours. The move, backed by more than 10,000 troops and dozens of warships, threatens a key conduit for world...
Vietnam‑China Agricultural Trade Hits $20.9 Bn, Spurring Cold‑chain Logistics Investment
Bilateral agricultural trade between Vietnam and China rose to $20.94 bn in 2025, driven by a 41.1% jump in Vietnam’s exports to China. The surge follows 33 signed agreements, new protocols on product standards, and a joint push to expand cold‑chain...
China’s Tech Surge Marred by Waste, Looming Stagnation
"China’s High-Tech Drive in 10 Charts" https://t.co/SZXnkg9CHZ "There have been tremendous strides, but also great waste and failures, such that China’s economic growth is likely to continue to stagnate and decline." https://t.co/hH3Gu87F81
I Bond Rates Jump to 4.26% as Inflation Spikes, Sparking New Wave of Investor Demand
The Treasury’s latest inflation data pushed the variable component of Series I savings bonds to an estimated 4.26% annualized, reviving investor interest that had waned after 2022’s rate peak. Savers are turning to the inflation‑indexed bonds as stock markets wobble...
How Strategic Investment Is Redefining Economic Statecraft
Funds of funds (FoFs) are emerging as strategic tools for governments to conduct economic statecraft. By pooling capital to invest in venture funds rather than directly in individual firms, FoFs can reinforce innovation ecosystems and steer resources toward critical technologies....
Episode 442: Poland Bets on LNG and Tariff Reform to Strengthen CEE Gas Hub Status
Poland’s gas transmission operator, Gas System, is positioning the country as a central hub for Central and Eastern European (CEE) gas supplies by expanding LNG import capacity, unifying tariffs, and strengthening cross‑border corridors such as the Baltic Sea and Amber...
Spain, Portugal See Tourism Boom as Travellers Avoid Middle East
Spain and Portugal are seeing a sharp surge in summer travel demand as tourists avoid war‑torn Middle‑Eastern destinations. By early April, flight bookings to Spain rose 32% year‑on‑year and hotel searches 28%, while Portugal recorded 21% and 16% gains respectively....
Reeves Says Diplomacy Is ‘Best Economy Policy’ as UK Tax Burden to Mount
Chancellor Rachel Reeves told CNBC in Washington that de‑escalating the Middle East conflict, especially reopening the Strait of Hormuz, is the “best economic policy” for the UK. She made the remarks after the IMF warned the UK’s tax burden will...