Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
Bitcoin’s correlation with gold and the U.S. dollar has collapsed to near zero, while its link to the Nasdaq 100 has risen to +0.35‑0.6 in 2025‑early 2026. The asset now behaves more like a high‑beta tech risk factor than the traditional “digital gold” hedge. This shift reflects the Federal Reserve’s steady‑rate stance and an IMF‑projected 3.3% global growth environment that keeps equity risk premiums relevant. Bitcoin’s identity now rotates among three regimes—hedge, tech beta, and liquidity sponge—with the tech beta currently dominant.
The United States and Armenia signed a nuclear cooperation agreement on February 9, committing to American modular reactor technology for Armenia's next plant. Moscow responded with a public backlash, accusing the U.S. of untested designs and offering lucrative financial and infrastructure...
India’s unemployment rate ticked up to 5 % in January, a modest rise from 4.8 % in December. The increase was driven primarily by a sharper jump in female joblessness, which reached 5.6 % versus 4.8 % for men. Urban unemployment climbed to 7 %...
India is preparing a roadmap to create ‘champion’ central public sector enterprises (CPSEs) that will drive economic growth and technological advancement toward a developed nation status by 2047. The plan, drafted by NITI Aayog in coordination with the finance ministry,...
Ireland’s finance minister warned that the newly‑formed “E6” club of Europe’s six biggest economies could sideline smaller states as it pushes ahead on financial‑market integration, euro promotion and defence spending. The E6 – Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and...
Hungary and Slovakia have formally asked Croatia to permit Russian crude to flow through the Adria pipeline after the Ukrainian segment of the Druzhba pipeline was shut down following Russian strikes. The two countries cite an EU sanctions exemption that...
UK bank leaders are convening to launch a sovereign payments network, DeliveryCo, as an alternative to Visa and Mastercard. The initiative, backed by City funders and the Bank of England, aims to mitigate risks from potential US political actions, such...
⚠️The US Dollar's role in global reserves is FALLING: USD share in global currency reserves dropped to ~40%, the lowest in at least 25 years. This is down from ~58% a decade ago. During the same period, gold’s share has risen from 16%...
Rotation away from S&P500 (flat on the year) into other assets like foreign stocks, US value, etc up 10-15% seems to be accelerating...
Thailand's finance ministry has instructed state‑owned enterprises to fund new investments primarily from internal revenues, limiting reliance on borrowing that is classified as public debt. The policy follows a backdrop where public debt stands at 66.1% of GDP, close to...
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by over 87% against the USD in the past year. IT’S TIME TO DUMP THE BOLIVAR AND REPLACE IT WITH THE US DOLLAR. https://t.co/dHtPzNew81
The best—only?—argument that Trump is bearish for oil prices is that OPEC+ wouldn't have hiked crude production as aggressively last year in a world in which Harris was sitting in the White House.
Thailand’s economy posted a surprising 2.5% GDP expansion in Q4 2025, outpacing the finance ministry’s 1.8% forecast and the NESDC’s 0.3% estimate. The stronger performance lifted full‑year 2025 growth to 2.4%, above the 2% target, and the finance chief now aims...
Back in Brussels today for the #Eurogroup meeting, where we discussed: 🔹 euro area policy priorities for 2026 🔹 the international role of the euro https://t.co/FAa7OvZiMt
A7A5, a Kyrgyzstan‑incorporated ruble‑pegged stablecoin, added roughly $90 billion to its circulating supply last year, outpacing USDT and USDC. The issuer’s affiliates and reserve‑bank partner are listed on the U.S. sanctions list, yet the firm claims full KYC/AML compliance and positions...
The Australian dollar held near 0.7072 against the U.S. dollar on Monday as a firmer greenback limited upside. The pair slipped from three‑year highs of 0.7147 after U.S. CPI showed inflation easing to 2.4% and unemployment edging down to 4.3%,...
Modeled a range of scenarios, but showing mid-bull to make a key point. For the first time in semiconductor industry history, value creation is primarily an ASP story not a volume story. https://t.co/IoHFb65Gmq
India’s PM Surya Ghar rooftop solar scheme, launched in February 2024 with up to 40% subsidies, has installed only 2.36 million panels, far short of the 4 million target for March. Loan approvals are delayed or rejected for roughly 60% of applications, and many...
Canada is caught between a U.S. trade war and its own USMCA renewal, while seeking to expand its automotive sector with Asian partners. President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Canadian goods and warned he could block the Gordie Howe International...
Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery reached full 650,000 bpd capacity in January 2026, processing a record 40.1 million litres of crude per day and supplying 57 % of the nation’s fuel. Domestic output now provides 62 % of premium motor spirit, overtaking imports for the first...
President Donald Trump’s newly created Board of Peace will hold its inaugural meeting on Feb. 19, promising to release $5 billion in humanitarian and reconstruction aid for Gaza. The board, established under UN Security Council Resolution 2803, will operate as a donor‑led, international...
Chevron is aggressively expanding its Venezuelan heavy‑crude production to feed its complex Gulf Coast refineries, which are optimized for dense, sulfur‑rich oil. Global supplies of such crude have tightened as Mexican exports fall, Russian barrels are sanctioned, and Canadian logistics...
The episode reflects on the start of the Lunar New Year as a moment to pause and look ahead at China’s evolving role in a shifting global order. Using Wang Wei’s poem, the host argues that while major structures and...
Does anyone have a good explanation for why equity skew shows investors are paying up for downside protection but also VIX futures are at near record shorts? Those seem to be contradictory. https://t.co/IWYZ9IHTYl
Niger's military government moved roughly 1,000 tonnes of uranium concentrate, known as yellowcake, to Air Base 101 near Niamey after seizing the Orano‑run mine. The stockpile remains unsold, with potential buyers from Russia, China, the United States and the UAE...
Good piece. Warsh would be a fundamental break from the Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell Feds if he carried out his views. Do I think he’s capable of pulling that off? Not really. Do I think he might try to and...
Are there any other explanations for the multi-year vertical ascent in hedge fund gross leverage aside from a reduction in front end interest rates / funding costs? https://t.co/WkIt1xAlmd
The EU Council approved new customs rules that will end the duty‑free exemption for parcels up to €150, imposing a flat €3 charge per item category starting July 1. Last year, 5.8 billion low‑cost e‑commerce parcels entered the bloc, a 26 % rise...
Two things are simultaneously true -- a) China's surplus doesn't automatically flow into its fx reserves and then into Treasuries and Agencies b) China's large ongoing surplus (+ the increase in fx assets of the state banks) cautions against using the...
The Hindu BusinessLine letters highlight three regulatory concerns. First, they argue that the credit‑deposit ratio alone cannot gauge bank health and call for abolishing the Cash Reserve Ratio to improve deposit mobilisation amid RBI’s new risk‑based insurance premiums. Second, they...
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer urged a faster acceleration of defence spending, citing the growing Russian threat. Britain currently spends 2.3% of GDP on defence, above NATO’s 2% guideline, and plans to reach 2.5% by 2027 and 3% by the...
The Philippine Exporters Confederation (Philexport) is confident that export growth will accelerate this year, buoyed by the active Philippines‑South Korea free‑trade agreement and several pending deals. Preliminary data show 2025 merchandise exports reached $84.41 billion, a 15.2% increase over 2024 and...
Jamieson Greer, a low‑key lawyer turned U.S. Trade Representative, has become the chief architect of President Trump’s renewed global trade war. Since his appointment in early 2025, Greer has designed aggressive tariff structures and led negotiations with major trading partners,...
One of a number of potentially important macro divergences that occurred in 2H25 is shown below. For the prior 10+ years, foreign Central Banks sold USTs when the USD rose and bought USTs when the USD fell. In 2H25, foreign CB’s sold...
A wave of new manufacturing projects across the United States is driving roughly $1 billion in capital spending, spanning heavy equipment, advanced electronics, automation and industrial components. Companies such as John Deere, Rockwell Automation, and Applied Optoelectronics are breaking ground on...
Why @IEA and @OPECSecretariat are split on what comes next for oil - and what it means for strategy this year https://t.co/FUAD5TlcG4 @TheNationalNews
New trading week = big clues for rates 👀 Futures up, gold down, dollar strong… what is the market betting on for Fed cuts in 2026? Fed speakers, FOMC minutes, global data & a surprise risk event ahead Watch the video before you...
The Munich Security Conference highlighted growing diplomatic leverage for Russia, with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas warning that Moscow may gain more at the negotiating table than on the battlefield. U.S. Senator Marco Rubio expressed uncertainty about Russia’s willingness...
Kyrgyzstan’s economy surged, posting 11% GDP growth in 2025 after a 9% rise in 2024, driven by a logistics boom that rerouted Chinese goods northward following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The surge is reinforced by soaring gold exports, higher remittances...
The European Central Bank announced that, from the third quarter of 2026, it will expand its EUREP euro repo facility to a global €50 billion line available to any central bank that meets AML and sanctions criteria. The repo offers euro...
We live in a beggar-thy-neighbor world. Everyone is trying to get their currencies down except for the Euro zone, another symptom of geopolitical weakness. While everyone else is managing their currencies down, the Euro is suffering from benign neglect... https://t.co/QpUo91Xcq2 https://t.co/7qByDtUMFN
India's merchandise exports rose modestly by 0.61% to $36.56 billion in January, according to Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal. Imports, however, jumped 19.2% to $71.24 billion, widening the monthly trade deficit to $34.68 billion. The fiscal‑year outlook remains positive, with total exports of goods...
Tamil Nadu’s Economic Survey 2025‑26 projects its $1 trillion GDP ambition could slip from 2030 to 2031 if the rupee weakens faster than expected. The state posted a 16% nominal growth rate in 2024‑25, with manufacturing expanding 14.74% real and exports doubling...
Booking.com has removed two Hilton properties in the Frankfurt region from its platform, cancelling several hundred existing reservations. The hotels – Hilton Frankfurt City Centre and Hilton Frankfurt Gravenbruch – are owned by the Mashali family, linked to Iranian banker...
India and the United Kingdom are pushing to operationalise their Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) by April, aiming to grant duty‑free access to 99 percent of Indian exports. The pact still requires approval from the UK Parliament before it can...
"The Break Is Over. Companies Are Jacking Up Prices Again." "Such new price increases follow last year’s wave of tariff-driven price hikes" https://t.co/onoN6WYPHy https://t.co/OjVUbYFXnM
In subdued foreign exchange turnover, the dollar enjoys a firmer bias against most G10 currencies amid on broadly consolidative tone. https://t.co/cyTShaySWO
Italy announced it is prepared to train new police forces in Gaza and the wider Palestinian territories, signaling a proactive diplomatic stance in the region. Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani emphasized readiness to build a Gaza police unit and support Palestinian...
Iran’s foreign ministry said the United States has moved to a more realistic stance on Tehran’s nuclear programme ahead of a second round of indirect talks in Geneva, mediated by Oman. The Revolutionary Guard Corps launched naval drills in the...
The Treasury will auction a 30‑year Treasury Inflation‑Protected Security (TIPS) this week, offering a real‑yield that could attract investors seeking long‑term inflation hedges. Analysts note that redeeming early‑year I Bonds can generate an unexpected tax liability, complicating cash‑flow planning. Recent CPI...
