Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Trussardi Completes Full Exit From Russia, Shutting All Stores and Online Operations
Italian luxury label Trussardi has closed its remaining Russian retail outlets and dissolved its e‑commerce platform in early April 2026, completing a phased withdrawal that began in 2022. The exit follows a 2024 acquisition by Miroglio and reflects mounting financial strain and heightened geopolitical risk for Western brands in Russia.
India’s March Trade Deficit Narrows to $20.67 Billion on Year
India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $20.67 billion in March 2026, driven by a sharper decline in imports than exports. Exports fell 7.4% to $38.92 billion, while imports dropped 6.5% to $59.59 billion, easing the gap. Including services, the overall trade deficit contracted...
India Gets Fertilizer Offers Near $1,000 as War Stokes Costs
India’s latest urea tender, the world’s largest nitrogen‑fertilizer buyer, received bids hovering around $1,000 per metric ton. More than two dozen suppliers, including Aramco Trading Co. and Ameropa Asia, submitted offers as the conflict in Iran pushes global fertilizer costs...
Gold and Commodities Are Set to Soar
Gold and silver appear to have found a floor and are climbing, driven by a broader rally in commodities. The surge follows the United States’ naval blockade in the Sea of Oman, which threatens the supply of base metals, sulphuric...
Eurozone Industrial Production Was Sluggish Ahead of Middle East War
Eurozone industrial production edged up 0.4% in February but remains below 2025 levels, signaling a weak start to 2026. The modest gain was uneven, with Germany, France and the Netherlands posting declines while Italy saw a slight rise and Ireland...
Bloomberg Daybreak: Trump Says Iran War End in Sight (Podcast)
President Trump signaled that the six‑week Iran conflict could be winding down, sparking optimism in equity markets and easing pressure on global oil prices. He suggested peace talks may resume within two days and hinted that the recent two‑week cease‑fire...
Danish Media Misframes US as Strait Blockade Villain
Just to describe the state media in Denmark. In yesterdays news national explained: 1. US is now blocking strait of Hormuz (not: US is blocking ships to or from IRAN, but strait is open) 2. Economic crisis imminent (narrative: due to US...
Oil Prices Inch Higher After A Two-Day Slump
Oil prices rebounded on Wednesday after a two‑day slump, with Brent crude climbing to $96.18 a barrel (+1.5%) and WTI to $92.40 (+1.2%). The previous declines were sparked by an International Energy Agency warning that sustained high prices could curb...
Defending Your Convictions
In 1982 Ray Dalio bet heavily that the Federal Reserve’s anti‑inflation campaign would trigger a deflationary crash, a view he publicly championed before testifying before the Senate. When Fed Chairman Paul Volcker unexpectedly cut rates later that year, the S&P...
EU Cracks Down on Chinese Goods Bypassing Tariffs via Belt and Road Initiative
On April 15, 2026, the European Commission announced anti‑dumping duties on glass‑fibre produced by Chinese firms operating in Egypt, Bahrain and Thailand, aiming to block Belt‑and‑Road routes used to evade EU tariffs. The duties, ranging from 11 % to 25.4 % of...
Why Is the Fed Holding Firm? The New Strategic Reality for Treasurers
The Federal Reserve has kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%‑3.75% for a second pause in 2026, moving from aggressive easing to cautious observation amid geopolitical energy shocks and a looming leadership transition. Simultaneously, the Fed is purchasing up...
Dollar Slips Against Dong
The U.S. dollar slipped against the Vietnamese dong on April 15, with Vietcombank selling at VND 26,358 (≈$1) and the black‑market rate slipping to VND 26,728 (≈$1.02). The State Bank of Vietnam lowered its reference rate to VND 25,103 (≈$0.96). Globally, the dollar index...
Market Calm Endures Ahead of Possible US-Iran Talks
Investors are holding their breath as a possible second round of US‑Iran cease‑fire talks keeps markets unusually calm. Oil prices and major currencies are flat, while S&P 500 futures remain steady and Asian equities post modest gains after Wall Street’s overnight...
Official Statistics: Forecasts for the UK Economy: April 2026
On 15 April 2026 HM Treasury released its monthly “Forecasts for the UK economy” report, a side‑by‑side comparison of independent forecasters’ projections. The 19‑page PDF presents short‑term outlooks for 2026‑27 and medium‑term scenarios through 2030, covering both calendar and financial‑year horizons. The...
Tariffs by Another Name: How Discriminatory Taxes on Cross-Border Services Threaten America’s Export Edge
Cross‑border services are increasingly subject to discriminatory taxes that function like tariffs, undermining the United States’ export advantage. The paper highlights three case studies—the UN’s proposed withholding tax framework, European digital services taxes, and the U.S. base erosion and anti‑abuse...
Energy Supply Disruptions From Middle East War to Persist, IEA and IMF Warn
The International Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund and World Bank warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict will keep global oil and gas markets disrupted, even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes. The shock is described as substantial,...
Is the Stock Market Wrong About the Iran War?
U.S. equities have surged, with the S&P 500 gaining about 10.4% since late‑March lows, as investors bet a two‑week cease‑fire will end the US‑Iran conflict. Meanwhile, the producer‑price index showed a modest 0.5% monthly rise, but energy components spiked 8.5%, highlighting...
China Threatens Employee Penalties to Deter Supply‑chain Decoupling
This is extraordinary: China’s response to Western firms diversifying supply chains is to threaten penalties on their own employees and executives inside China if they “decouple.” It’s like an abusive partner reacting to a breakup by threatening the kids or shared...
War and the Lost Generation of Inventors
A new VoxEU study finds that British towns that lost large numbers of young men in World War I suffered lasting drops in inventive activity. The research links higher wartime casualties to fewer patents and slower adoption of frontier technologies...
Japan to Launch $10B Fund to Help Asia Secure Oil
Japan announced a $10 billion financial framework, administered by state‑backed lenders JBIC and NEXI, to help Asian nations secure oil amid heightened Middle East tensions. The fund is equivalent to roughly 1.2 billion barrels, or about one year of crude imports for...
Iran War Pushes Global Food Markets Toward Crisis Mode
The Iran‑Israel conflict is tightening the Strait of Hormuz, choking a key route for oil and agricultural inputs. The IMF and OECD warn that the resulting energy shock could push global inflation above 7% and shrink growth to around 2%,...
FSB Chair Warns of Rising Strains in the Financial System
Financial Stability Board Chair and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that the war in Iran is amplifying financing costs and could deliver a "double or triple hit" to the global financial system. He highlighted that tighter credit conditions...
US Blockade Threatens $435 M Daily Loss for Iran
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Pre-London ─────── US blockade of Iranian ports halts 90 percent of Iran's sea-based trade and economy. US declines to renew sanctions waiver for Iranian oil exports expiring April 19. Iran considers pausing oil shipments to evade testing the US...
S. Korea Secures 273 Mil. Barrels of Crude Oil, 2.1 Mil. Tons of Naphtha by Year-End: Presidential Aide
South Korea secured 273 million barrels of crude oil and 2.1 million tons of naphtha for delivery by year‑end after a diplomatic tour of Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kazakhstan. The volume covers roughly three months of oil consumption and one month...
IMF Says Africa Faces Growth Downgrade Amid Middle East War
The IMF has downgraded Africa's growth outlook for 2026‑27 by 0.4 percentage points, citing the fallout from the US‑Israel‑Iran war. The conflict has pushed oil and gas prices higher, raising inflation expectations to about 5% in Sub‑Saharan Africa and tightening...
Japan: Lower Hedging Costs to Stimulate Foreign Bond Investment Once Middle East Conflict Stabilizes
Japanese investors are reversing their post‑2022 retreat from foreign bonds, adding roughly $2 bn to European sovereigns and $7 bn to U.S. Treasuries in 2025. The rebound is anchored in falling hedging costs as the Bank of Japan raises rates while the...
Bulletproof Capital: Why Bitcoin Wins When the World Fractures.
When U.S. and Israeli airstrikes began in Iran on Feb. 28, markets panicked: the S&P 500 slipped 1% and gold plunged 10%. In stark contrast, Bitcoin surged 12%, defying the long‑held view that it is a pure risk asset tied...
Rates Spark: Hard to Make High Conviction Central Bank Calls
Predicting central‑bank moves has become increasingly fraught as oil price swings directly tilt rate‑hike expectations. The ECB appears set to pause in April, yet markets still price a 25‑bp hike by June and another by year‑end, while the Fed and...
India’s Wholesale Inflation Rises to 3.88% in March, Highest in over 3 Years on Fuel, Metal Costs
India’s wholesale price index (WPI) jumped to 3.88% in March, the strongest reading in over three years, driven by sharp increases in crude petroleum, natural gas, and basic metals. Primary‑article inflation surged to 6.36%, while manufactured‑goods inflation rose to 3.39%,...
Australia to Import 1.6mn Bl Gasoline From Europe
Australia is arranging to import roughly 1.6 million barrels of non‑oxy gasoline from Europe to shore up its dwindling fuel reserves. A price premium of over $34 per barrel in Singapore relative to Europe opened a lucrative arbitrage window, prompting shipments...
Shaping of Two-Way Street Between Economic History and Macroeconomic Policy
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Alan Taylor delivered a speech highlighting the growing two‑way street between economic history and macroeconomic policy. He argues that since the 2008 crisis, historians have adopted modern macro tools while policymakers increasingly draw...
EU Must Adopt Systemic Approach to External Account Control
Good FT article on the role of Chinese investment in manufacturing in Europe. I worry however that EU policymakers may be framing the issue poorly. This should not be about managing incremental, country-by-country changes in production. Policymakers in the EU (and...
Luxury Brands Book Sales Drop as Mideast War Takes Toll on Airport Shopping
Luxury duty‑free operators are feeling the strain as the Middle East conflict forces airport closures and curtails travel to the region. The disruption, now in its sixth week, has shaved roughly 1% off LVMH’s quarterly sales and cut Kering’s Q1...
Iran Can Hold Hormuz Longer; US Strikes Won’t Spark Crisis
Seven weeks later, many taboos broken: 1) Iran can’t block the Strait of Hormuz. Yes, it can, and for far longer than the oil market thought it would be possible. 2) If the US attacks, an energy crisis follows. Sure, gasoline...
Swiss Inflation Low; Money Supply Growth on Target
Switzerland’s inflation rate comes in at 0.3%/yr. NO SURPRISE. The Swiss money supply (M3) is growing at 5.0%/yr. That's within Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 4.4%-6.4%/yr, a rate consistent with the Swiss target range of 0%-2%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY...
FX Daily: Pushing Forward Into De-Escalation Trades
The U.S. dollar slipped to just 0.5% above pre‑war levels as optimism grows around a Middle‑East de‑escalation, aided by a softer‑than‑expected March PPI (0.5% MoM) and modest Fed easing expectations. The Fed’s upcoming Beige Book and the April 21 Senate...
Iran's Supertanker Defies US Blockade Amid Interceptions
Dear @grok truth? A. Iranian sanctioned supertanker crosses Strait of Hormuz, reportedly defying U.S. blockade. Vs B. U.S. naval forces have intercepted eight oil tankers entering or leaving Iranian ports since the start of the blockade, according to a U.S. official -WSJ
China Produces over 20% of the World's Key Industrial Goods
Insane chart: China builds more than 20% of the world's solar panels, wind turbines, ships, trains, steel, aluminum, telecom equipment, chemicals, cement, machinery and aerospace equipment And that's 2023 data, likely understating its dominance Source: FT https://t.co/5vnFnr2SX1
How to Finance Large Government Investments
Germany is earmarking roughly $545 billion each for defence and infrastructure over the next ten years, amounting to about $1.09 trillion – roughly 25% of its GDP. The bulk of this spending will be financed through new debt. Economic models, aligned with...
UK Working Wages Fall Short, Universal Credit Hits 8.4 Million
In the UK, a "working salary" is basically not enough to live on, so the government tops up, paid for by what is now a shrinking and squeezed tax base. 1/2
Japan Pledges $10 B to Fuel Southeast Asia
Japan will provide as much as $10 billion in financial support to Southeast Asian countries to help them buy oil 🇯🇵🤝🛢️ This is the biggest effort yet to help cash-strapped developing nations deal with fuel shortages (This benefits Japan. SE Asia key to...
War in Iran Dampens NZ Manufacturing Optimism Despite Continued Growth
New Zealand’s manufacturing PMI slipped to 53.2 in March, down from 54.8 in February but still above the 50‑point expansion threshold. The decline coincided with a sharp rise in negative sentiment, as 62% of firms cited the war in Iran...
Dan Katz Discusses Global Economy at IMF Meeting
A good discussion on the global economy with Dan Katz, @IMFNews’s First Deputy Managing Director. #IMFMeetings https://t.co/yKh0mwJHGS
Chris Mason: Iran War Means Government's Vicious Circles Tighten and Darken
The UK government is grappling with the economic fallout of the Iran war, which compounds already weak growth and forces a debate over rising defence spending. Chancellor Rachel Reeves expressed frustration over the conflict’s lack of a clear exit strategy,...
China to Issue RMB 15.5bn Treasury Bonds in Hong Kong
Xinhua: "China's Ministry of Finance on Wednesday said that it will issue this year's second batch of RMB 15.5 billion in renminbi-denominated treasury bonds in Hong Kong on April 22." https://t.co/OFSlsUluRF
Rupee Hits Record Low Amid Capital Flight, War Fallout
#IndiaWatch 🇮🇳: The Indian rupee has declined by over 4% since the start of 2026, hitting a RECORD LOW. India is suffering from capital flight that has been exacerbated because of the US-Israeli war on Iran. https://t.co/U9Bqls3Z0G
Citadel’s Griffin Warns of “Global Recession”
Ken Griffin, founder of Citadel, warned at a global economic summit that a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a full‑scale global recession. He likened the emerging energy shock to the 1970s oil crises, noting today’s financial...
Lose and Lose in the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint linking the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, handles roughly 20% of daily global oil shipments and is a critical conduit for trade to Asia, Europe and the Americas. Historical episodes—from the Iran‑Iraq...
LEI for Brazil Declined in March
Brazil’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index slipped 1.2% in March 2026 to 123.5, marking the first monthly decline since August 2025. Despite the dip, the index has risen 2.9% over the September‑March six‑month span, reversing a prior contraction. The Coincident...
Economic Forecast for the Euro Area Economy (April 2026)
The Conference Board now sees Euro‑area growth slipping to just 1.0% in 2026 as higher oil and gas prices—still near $100 per barrel and about $55 per MWh—push headline inflation to 2.5% in March. Business sentiment and the composite PMI...