Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Coal Imports Fall 8.5% in February Amid High Stockpiles, Firm Global Prices
India’s coal imports dropped 8.5% in February, reaching 16.55 million tonnes, as record domestic stockpiles and firm seaborne prices curbed demand. Non‑coking coal fell to 9.80 MT, while coking coal rose slightly to 3.92 MT. Domestic production rose 4.98% to 1,047.5 MT, keeping power‑plant inventories at a comfortable 55 MT, enough for 24 days of generation. Analysts expect the weak import trend to continue while the self‑reliance push gains momentum.
Task for the Week: Limit the Fallout From Biggest Oil Shock in Decades | Richard Partington
The IMF and World Bank convene in Washington as the US‑Israeli war on Iran triggers the biggest oil shock of the modern era. Brent crude, after peaking near $120 a barrel, remains well above the pre‑conflict $72 level, driving inflation...
US-Iran War: Ceasefire Negotiation Fails; What Does It Mean for Gold, Oil, Silver and Indian Stock Market?
Cease‑fire negotiations between the United States and Iran collapsed in Islamabad, reviving geopolitical risk across markets. Analysts expect crude oil to gap up as the risk premium widens, while gold and silver are likely to open flat unless tensions intensify....
Analysts Warn Iran‑U.S. Rift Could Spike Oil Prices, Threaten US Inflation
Foreign‑affairs expert Robinder Sachdev warned that the breakdown of high‑stakes US‑Iran negotiations has turned the Strait of Hormuz into a “super weapon,” risking a sharp rise in oil prices. He said insurance refusals and Iran’s new maritime tactics could choke...
The Dollar’s Special Status: Sources and Threats
A recent Al‑Jazeera analysis highlights Iran and China’s move to collect Strait of Hormuz tolls in yuan or cryptocurrency, signaling a push against US dollar dominance. The piece revisits long‑standing "dollar doomerism" narratives that predict the currency’s imminent decline, noting...
“War in Iran Will Come at a Cost,” Reeves Warns UK Businesses
Chancellor Rachel Reeves warned that the escalating conflict in Iran will directly raise costs for British businesses, as disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz tighten global oil supplies. Higher gas prices are already feeding through to manufacturers, threatening to reignite...
Kremlin Order Seizes $700M CANPACK Russian Unit, Prompting CFOs to Re‑Assess Geopolitical Risk
A Kremlin decree signed on Dec. 31, 2025 transferred 100% of CANPACK’s Russian operations, valued at roughly $700 million, to state‑appointed managers. The move stripped the Pennsylvania‑based holding company of any operational authority, underscoring the growing exposure of multinational firms to political risk...
Ethiopian Birr Becomes Weakest Sub‑Saharan Currency, Down 18% in 2025
The World Bank’s latest Africa Economic Update flags the Ethiopian birr as the continent’s weakest currency, slipping 18% year‑on‑year through 2025. The depreciation outpaces regional peers and underscores the strain of Ethiopia’s recent forex liberalisation and macro‑economic reforms.
JD Vance Meets Pakistan's Sharif as US‑Iran Talks Launch in Islamabad
U.S. Vice President JD Vance met Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Islamabad as the United States and Iran began direct negotiations to shore up a two‑week ceasefire. The talks aim to prevent a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz,...
Trump Announces Strait of Hormuz Clearance, Lifts Oil Prices as Indian Glass Sector Cuts Output 50%
U.S. President Donald Trump declared the start of clearing the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil futures up and Brent crude hovering near $96 a barrel. Simultaneously, India's glass industry, strained by gas supply cuts linked to the Middle East conflict,...
RTS Link: Johor Must Refine Strategy to Tackle Skilled Labour Outflows
Johor must sharpen its cross‑border economic strategy as the Rapid Transit System (RTS) Link, slated for a January 2027 launch, promises to ease travel between Johor Bahru and Singapore. The 5‑minute, 10,000‑passenger‑per‑hour service could accelerate the outflow of skilled Malaysian...
West Asia Crisis May Push India’s Current Account Deficit to 2% of GDP: Crisil
Crisil warns that a prolonged West Asia crisis could push India’s current account deficit (CAD) up to roughly 2% of GDP, up from its baseline estimate of 1.5%. The surge would be driven by a 23% year‑on‑year rise in crude‑oil...
Spanish Airline Reportedly Adding Fuel Surcharge On Existing Bookings As Oil Prices Surge
Spanish low‑cost carrier Volotea announced it will charge an extra €7 (about $7.60) fuel surcharge on tickets that have already been purchased. The move is tied to a sharp rise in oil prices following the continued closure of the Strait...
Failure of US-Iran Talks Set to Weigh on Risk Assets Monday
The United States and Iran failed to secure a cease‑fire agreement during talks in Pakistan, reviving geopolitical risk. Analysts expect the setback to push investors toward safe‑haven assets, lifting the dollar and oil prices while dragging equities lower. Treasury yields...
KPMG UK Analyzes Latest Credit Data, Warns the Economy Is Showing Signs of Stress
KPMG UK’s review of the Bank of England’s Q1 2026 Credit Conditions Survey finds mounting stress in the UK lending market. Rising consumer defaults reveal deeper household‑finance strains, while home‑purchase loan demand stays flat, remortgaging activity climbs, and unsecured credit usage...
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FUELLING WAR: ‘Hypocrisy’: Critics Slam SA for Boosting Coal Exports to Israel Despite Gaza Genocide Case
South Africa’s coal exports to Israel surged in the past two years, reaching roughly 2.99 million tonnes between October 2023 and December 2025, even as Pretoria pursues a genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice. The increase followed Colombia’s decision...
Inconclusive US-Iran Talks, Oil Prices, Inflation Data to Dictate Investors' Sentiment: Analysts
U.S. and Iranian delegations left Pakistan without a deal, with Washington’s “excessive demands” cited as the sticking point. The collapse follows a brief rally in Indian equities that was fueled by a cease‑fire announcement and crude oil slipping below $100...
Failure of US-Iran Talks Set to Weigh on Risk Assets Monday
The United States and Iran failed to secure a peace agreement during talks in Pakistan, reigniting geopolitical tension. Analysts expect the U.S. dollar to rebound after a 1.4% weekly decline, while oil prices are projected to slip. The disappointment is...
US Revisits Georgia’s Black Sea Port as Strategic Corridors Rise
The United States has resumed high‑level contact with Georgia, highlighted by a March 30 call between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze. Washington’s outreach focuses on the Anaklia deep‑sea port, a key node for the Black Sea‑linked...
US-Iran Islamabad Talks End without Deal as Hormuz Control Remains Key Sticking Point
The United States and Iran held their first high‑level face‑to‑face talks since 1979 in Islamabad, but after more than 21 hours the meeting ended without an agreement. The core dispute centered on the Strait of Hormuz, where Washington demands unrestricted...
German Growth Outlook Slides to Sub‑1% This Year
Good Morning from Germany, where consensus growth forecasts, which had been remarkably slow to change, are now starting to drift lower. Growth of just 0.8% is now expected for this year, and 1.4% for 2027. Bank of America is the...
India-UK Free Trade Pact May Come Into Force From Second Week of May: Official
The India‑UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), signed in July 2025, is slated to take effect in the second week of May 2026. The pact grants duty‑free access for 99% of Indian exports to the British market and cuts...
Iran's SoH Blockade Remains Tehran's Ultimate Bargaining Chip
Point No. 1 was entirely to be expected. SoH blockade and the economic pain it is inflecting is Tehran’s biggest leverage. It will hold on to it till the very end. Why would the US think it would surrender it this early?...
Kenyans Are Encouraged to Work Abroad, but Protection Rights Remain Weak – New Research
Kenya is pushing a new labour‑migration drive toward Gulf states, targeting $10 billion in annual remittances and a million jobs abroad under President William Ruto’s agenda. By 2025 more than 300,000 Kenyans are employed in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United...
Why DRC Central Bank Is Banning Dollar Use
The Central Bank of the Congo announced that, effective April 9 2027, it will be the sole entity authorized to import foreign currencies and that cash transactions in US dollars will be prohibited, allowing only electronic transfers. The move seeks to curb...
South Korea Nears Kazakhstan Oil Deal as Middle East Supply Risks Mount
South Korea is close to finalising a crude‑oil supply agreement with Kazakhstan, a move aimed at reducing its heavy reliance on Middle Eastern imports. The deal follows a high‑level diplomatic tour that also visited Oman and Saudi Arabia amid growing...
Value in Volatility: Why Smart Money Hunts ‘Gaps’ in Uncertain Markets
Market volatility is reviving value‑investing as investors chase mispriced assets. Arnold Van Den Berg, speaking at Talks at Google, stresses the hunt for “value gaps” – the spread between intrinsic worth and current price. He argues that fear‑driven sell‑offs create buying opportunities...
FPIs Extend Sell-Off in April; Pull Out Rs 48,213 Crore From Indian Stocks in 10 Days
Foreign portfolio investors pulled $5.14 billion (Rs 48,213 crore) from Indian equities in the first ten days of April, extending a sharp outflow trend that began with a record $12.7 billion exit in March. The cumulative outflows for 2026 now exceed $18 billion, reflecting heightened...
Rising Fuel, Fertilizer Costs Threaten Crops and Prices
A farmer in Western Australia was playing sports with colleagues when news of the Iran war broke. Minutes later they were on their phones, scrambling to secure fuel. Read how surging fuel and fertilizer costs are forcing tough crop decisions and...
Vietnam Cuts All Fuel Taxes to Zero Through June
Vietnam's National Assembly approved a zero‑tax regime for gasoline, diesel, kerosene, mazut and aviation fuel from April 16 through June 30, eliminating VAT, environmental protection tax and special consumption tax. The move cuts state‑budget revenues by roughly VND 7.3 trillion (about $277 million) each month...
Thailand Revises Growth Outlook with 4 Scenarios Amid Middle East Tensions
Thailand’s National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) released four growth scenarios for 2026 as the Middle East conflict threatens oil markets. In the most optimistic case, limited fighting keeps oil at $85‑95 a barrel and GDP growth at 1.4%...
Oil Tankers U-Turn in Hormuz as US-Iran Talks Break Down
Two empty crude carriers—two VLCCs and an Aframax—approached the Strait of Hormuz from the Gulf of Oman on Saturday, aiming for destinations in the United Arab Emirates and Iraq. At a checkpoint near Iran’s Larak Island, all three vessels executed...
Gold Surges as US–Iran Ceasefire Weakens US Dollar and Fuels Safe Haven Demand
Gold rallied sharply after the U.S.–Iran cease‑fire announcement, pushing the metal higher as the dollar slipped about 1% to a four‑week low. The move reflects heightened safe‑haven demand amid lingering geopolitical uncertainty and softer U.S. economic data, including 0.5% Q4...
China Railway Boosts Q1 Investment 5% to Spur Growth
Xinhua: "In the first three months of 2026, China State Railway completed 137.9 billion yuan in fixed-asset investment, a year-on-year increase of 5.1 percent. The company will implement the key railway construction tasks specified in the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030),...
Canada Backs Timber Robotics to Deliver It’s $13B Housing Agenda
Canada is investing more than $4 million CAD (≈$3 million US) in a robotics‑enabled wood‑truss plant in Clinton, Ontario, under the Investments in Forest Industry Transformation (IFIT) program. The facility, run by Atlas Engineered Products, will boost precision manufacturing, cut waste, and...
US‑Iran Stalemate Underscores Urgent Shift to Renewables
Shocked. No agreement has been struck between the US and Iran, Strait of Hormuz is still closed, and as hypothesized, this pause is in this war is almost certainly a reloading for the U.S. The world better rapidly build renewables...
Economic Crisis Looms as Rivals Advance Unchecked
Prepare for the economic shitstorm Negotiations won’t solve this More fighting won’t solve this Export the problem to the rest of the world Meanwhile, China & Russia face fewer distractions & continue advancing their agendas, writes @_HenryBolton
Iran Has Weakened US in the Great Power Game
The United States’ brief war against Iran, ending with a 14‑day cease‑fire, exposed strategic vulnerabilities that Russia and China are exploiting. Washington’s unilateral action diverted attention from broader Indo‑Pacific and Western Hemisphere priorities, weakened its credibility as a mediator, and...
Trump Declares Victory Despite Failed US‑Iran Talks
US-Iran Talks End in Failure What a joke to imagine a deal could be done in 1 day “Whether we make a deal or not makes no difference to me,” Trump said. “And the reason is because we’ve won.” https://t.co/zMb3ZWwssw
Iran Keeps Hormuz Closed Without U.S. Peace Deal
🚨 UPDATE Iran has refused to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as a permanent peace agreement was not put in place during negotiations with the U.S. in Pakistan. https://t.co/Xvstuje8G0
Latin America's Central Banks Establish Digital Payments Used By Hundreds of Millions
Latin America’s central banks have rolled out instant‑payment platforms that now serve hundreds of millions, highlighted by Brazil’s Pix reaching 175 million users. Argentina and Costa Rica have followed suit with their own digital systems, leveraging a clean‑slate infrastructure free of...
Pakistan Receives Fifth $5B Bailout, Repeats Dependency Cycle
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Saudi Arabia and Qatar just announced another $5B bailout package for Pakistan. This is the 5th major bailout since 1998. Pakistan passes the begging bowl again. Why wouldn’t it? It seems to work. FREE IMRAN KHAN. https://t.co/JEXSVNuiU1
Finance Leaders Return to IMF Amid Familiar Challenges
The world finance chiefs are heading to the IMF with a sense of déjà vu https://t.co/sanhUAHEym via @jrandow https://t.co/R4cHIAwK89
Commodity Traders Lost ‘Billions’ in Early Days of Iran War
Commodity traders incurred multi‑billion‑dollar losses during the initial weeks of the Iran‑Israel conflict that erupted in early 2024. The sharp drop in oil prices and heightened market volatility erased large speculative positions, especially in crude futures and related derivatives. Analysts...
Chinese City Land Sales Plunge 46% Year‑on‑year
Yicai: "300 cities auctioned 64.72 million square meters of land in the three months ended March 31, a 24 percent drop from a year ago. By value, sales plunged 46 percent to CNY215.4 billion. By floor area, they shrank 26...
Doubts About Trump Strain Southeast Asia’s US-China Balancing Act
The 2026 State of Southeast Asia survey shows a sharp decline in confidence toward U.S. leadership under President Trump, with 52% of respondents now favoring China over the United States. Climate change has become the region’s top concern, cited by...
Israel's Inflation Hits Target, Money Supply On‑Track
Israel’s inflation is 2.0%/yr. That's w/i Israel’s 1%-3%/yr target. Israel’s broad money supply is growing at 8.08%/yr. That's WITHIN Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 7.7%-9.7%/yr, a rate consistent w/ Israel’s 1%-3%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/lQDMrCEK46
China Unveils Taiwan Goodwill Steps After Opposition Talks
China announced a package of goodwill measures toward Taiwan after President Xi met opposition leader Cheng Li‑wun. The package includes facilitating sales of Taiwanese agricultural and fishery products to the mainland. It also encourages Taiwanese investment in China and plans...
Iran Halts New Talks with US Amid Ongoing Deadlock
JUST IN: Iran is skipping fresh negotiations with the US due to the ongoing deadlock.
US‑Iran Talks Stall; European Gas Market Goes 21‑hour
The US and Iran fail to reach a deal after marathon talks in Pakistan ⚠️ 👀 All eyes will be on the European gas market, which for the first time will open early in Asia on Monday (in 19 hours) TTF...