Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Momentum Factor Leads as Wall Street Bets on a Fragile Ceasefire
Wall Street’s optimism over the tentative US‑Iran ceasefire lifted the S&P 500 to a five‑week high on April 9. Among equity factors, the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) surged 3.8% since the war’s onset, outpacing all peers. In contrast, low‑volatility funds like USMV slipped 3.6%, and the broad SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) remains down 0.6% since late February. Market sentiment remains fragile, tied to the outcome of cease‑fire talks and the stability of the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy chokepoint.
How to Keep the Strait of Hormuz Open in the Long Term
The United States and Iran announced a cease‑fire on April 7, temporarily reopening the Strait of Hormuz after a month‑long closure that began on March 2. Iran, which has been laying sea mines and demanding transit fees, will manage passage for a...
The Rest of the World Report | April 10, 2026 — Morning Briefing
The 72‑hour cease‑fire between Iran and Israel remains intact, but Israeli strikes continue in Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz stays largely closed. The United States is sending a delegation to Islamabad for the first high‑level talks with Iran since...
EU, US Near Critical Minerals Pact to Counter China’s Grip
The European Union and the United States are close to finalising a critical‑minerals pact that would coordinate production, pricing and supply‑chain resilience to curb reliance on China. The draft action plan proposes minimum‑price mechanisms, joint standards, and investment projects, while...
Iran Ceasefire Won't Solve Global Energy Crisis
@Rory_Johnston explains why the Iran ceasefire hasn't ended the global energy crisis, and what likely comes next on Shift Key with @robinsonmeyer. https://t.co/XDyvPxc4wn
Iran Confusion Makes the Case for Causal Modelling
Risk managers are grappling with the tangled uncertainties of the Iran‑US conflict, where traditional scenario testing—relying on past crises—fails to capture the unique dynamics of oil prices and prolonged infrastructure damage. Alexander Denev showed that Anthropic’s Claude LLM can construct...
The Market Brief
A two‑week ceasefire between the United States and Iran has eased geopolitical tension, sending U.S. equity indexes higher. The S&P 500 is on track for its largest weekly gain since November, while the Dow Jones aims for its strongest weekly...
The Barriers Behind the Border
The 2026 National Trade Estimate Report identifies anti‑competitive market distortions (ACMDs) as the most consequential barriers to U.S. exports, foreign investment and e‑commerce. Applying Shanker Singham’s three‑pillar framework, the analysis ranks China as the largest systemic challenge, with Mexico’s energy...
Final GDP Numbers Signal Troubling Economic Outlook
"Even though we had to dust off the final read on GDP, what it told me…is not good." https://t.co/B12qnALWAS #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth https://t.co/pqjvjdKsks
Fund Investors Hit By War Shock In First Quarter
U.S. diversified stock funds recorded a 2.7% loss in Q1 2026, the steepest decline since 2022, as oil prices surged above $100 per barrel amid the U.S.–Iran conflict. The S&P 500 fell 4.3% and the Nasdaq dropped 6.96%, while the Dow held...
Europe Braces for a Spike in Inflation
Investors are betting that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will raise interest rates this year as Europe confronts a fresh inflation surge. Natural‑gas prices have jumped roughly 40 % since February, driven by the U.S.–Israeli strikes on...
G10 FX Consolidates Amid US CPI, Canada Jobs, Geopolitical Tension
The G10 fx consolidation today looks constructive. Today's North American highlights including US March CPI and Canada's jobs data. Middle East ceasefire is frayed but intact ahead of the weekend negotiations. Hungary holds key election too. See https://t.co/ilDfPE14fW https://t.co/vM5PZMv4eI
World Trade Organization, Globalization’s Cornerstone, Collapses
A cornerstone of modern globalization, the World Trade Organization (WTO), is collapsing. Following the Cold War, the post-WWII system needed a legal system to enforce trade rules, so the WTO was born. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/NyZga6gg0S https://t.co/o16DadJrPq
Nigeria’s Poverty Crisis Deepens as 140 Million Struggle Despite Easing Inflation
The World Bank’s April 2026 Nigeria Development Update reveals that poverty surged to 63 percent in 2025, affecting roughly 140 million people. Despite a modest slowdown in inflation, real wages and household purchasing power remained flat, underscoring a disconnect between macro‑economic stabilization...
Iran’s Impact on Markets: Where There Is Volatility, There Is Opportunity
François Collet, CIO of DNCA, says the Iran conflict will act as a short‑term inflationary shock, lifting European inflation expectations above 3% and keeping U.S. inflation near 3.25% over the next year. He forecasts GDP growth could be trimmed by 10‑30...
CBAM Targets Half of EU ETS Emissions
CBAM currently applies to sectors such as cement, steel, aluminium, fertilizers, electricity, hydrogen, and certain intermediate products. Together, these sectors account for approximately 50% of emissions covered under the EU Emissions Trading System https://t.co/qKRttXlmeE
Taiwan Opposition Leader Calls for ‘Reconciliation’ After Meeting Xi
Opposition leader Cheng Li‑wun met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, becoming the highest‑ranking Taiwanese official to hold a face‑to‑face dialogue with Beijing since President Ma Ying‑jeou’s 2015 meeting. Both leaders reiterated opposition to Taiwan independence and framed the dispute as a cultural‑historical...
Governments Reassess Corporate Taxes Amid Global Minimum Tax
Governments across the world are reconsidering corporate tax rates in the wake of the OECD’s global minimum tax agreement, fiscal pressures following the pandemic, and increasing concerns about tax avoidance and profit shifting. https://t.co/JGQwYAIYmC
European Drinks Firms Urge India to Ease Import Duties Amid Supply Fears
European drinks firms, represented by the Federation of European Business in India, have asked the Indian government to temporarily remove a 10% import duty on glass bottles and aluminium cans. The request follows a surge in packaging costs—glass prices up...
Global Growth to Slow to 3.2% in 2026, Amid Largest Energy Shock on Record Due to West Asia Crisis: S&P...
S&P Global now projects global GDP growth slowing to 3.2 percent in 2026, down from 3.4 percent in 2025, as the West Asia conflict generates the largest recorded energy shock. Disruptions to oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to...
India's Remittances to Reach Record $140 Billion in FY26: SBI Research
India’s inbound remittances are projected to hit $137‑140 bn in FY26, a record level, before leveling off at $135‑137 bn in FY27. The surge, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions in West Asia, follows $110 bn received through December, up from $100 bn a year...
The Wrap: Hormuz Still Closed, Home Prices Stagnant to Down
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed despite a two‑week U.S.‑Iran cease‑fire, keeping global oil flows constrained and energy prices elevated. Gold futures have rebounded, the S&P 500 is trading sideways, and Bitcoin stays down year‑to‑date. In the housing sector, mortgage rates...
Oil Prices Climb Toward $100 as Ceasefire Uncertainty Shakes Markets
Oil prices surged toward the $100 level as doubts grew over a fragile cease‑fire between the United States, Iran and Israel. On April 9 U.S. crude jumped 6.8% to $100.79 a barrel while Brent rose 3.7% to $98.24, still well above...
EU and US Near Deal to Counter Chinese Mineral Dominance
EU and US near critical minerals deal to combat Chinese control https://t.co/9Sfd9SN3G1 via @AlbertoNardelli @JoeDeaux https://t.co/t2pPn5nVtw
Strait of Hormuz Control Key to Iran’s Deterrence Strategy
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has formalized control over the Strait of Hormuz, requiring vessel‑by‑vessel clearance and tolls paid in Chinese yuan or cryptocurrency. The move leaves roughly 175 fully‑laden tankers—about 150 million barrels of crude and products—stranded in the Arabian...
Why a Hormuz Toll Makes Economic Sense
The episode examines President Trump's mixed signals about imposing a $1‑$2 per barrel toll on oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, noting that such a fee would likely shift costs to Gulf producers and ultimately benefit U.S. suppliers, while...
Higher Oil Prices Set to Spike CPI, Live Trade
Today we'll see the first impact of higher oil prices on CPI. The news could rock the markets like no other piece of fundamental data. We are going to trade it LIVE and see if we can get FUNDED in one trade. Join...
European Stocks Slip as Fragile US‑Iran Ceasefire Sparks Oil and Inflation Fears
European equities retreated Thursday, with Germany's DAX down 1.1% and France's CAC 40 off 0.2%, after doubts surfaced over the two‑week US‑Iran ceasefire. Traders cited the risk of renewed Strait of Hormuz closures, higher oil prices and lingering inflation pressures...
Seeking the Next China: High‑Upside Emerging Market ETFs
Hey @grok What emerging market or country ETF today feels like buying China in 2003 that most likely has a massive multi-year upside?
Australian Dollar Hits 3‑Year High Near $0.72 as RBA Tightens and Commodities Surge
The Australian dollar surged to its strongest level since 2023, trading around 0.7065‑0.7080 USD and up more than 10% year‑over‑year. The rally is driven by the Reserve Bank of Australia's aggressive rate hikes to 4.10% and a robust commodity export...
ADB Lifts India FY27 Growth Forecast to 7.3% Amid West Asia Oil‑price Risk
The Asian Development Bank raised its FY27 GDP growth projection for India to 7.3%, up 80 basis points, citing salary hikes, regulatory reforms and a new EU trade pact. At the same time, the bank warned that a protracted West...
Oil Rebounds Toward $100 as US‑Iran Ceasefire Doubts Spark Supply‑risk Fears
Oil prices surged toward the $100 mark after doubts resurfaced about the two‑week US‑Iran ceasefire, with Brent at $99.3 and WTI at $101.5 per barrel. Traders cite a still‑closed Strait of Hormuz, Israeli strikes in Lebanon and mixed signals from...
Fitch Says Indian Banks Stay Resilient Amid Growing Credit Pressure in Asia
Fitch Ratings' April 10 analysis finds Indian banks remain relatively resilient as credit pressure builds across South and Southeast Asia. The agency warns of margin compression of 20‑30 basis points and a liquidity surplus that has slipped to just 0.5%...
Uzbek Bank Posts 36% Q1 Profit Surge as Central Asian Firms Boost Local Procurement
Uzpromstroybank reported a 36% jump in first‑quarter 2026 profit, even as its loan portfolio slipped slightly. At the same time, Kazakhstan’s KazMunayGas raised its domestic procurement share to 93% and launched a new Register of Domestic Manufacturers, underscoring a broader...
Circle’s USDC Revenue Model Stressed by Falling Interest Rates
Circle Internet Group’s fourth‑quarter 2025 revenue of $770 million, 95% of which came from reserve income on USDC holdings, is being squeezed by a declining reserve return rate. The macro‑sensitive model forces the firm to accelerate diversification as interest‑rate headwinds threaten...
Markets Look Past US-Iran Tensions with Inflation, Bank Profits in Focus
U.S. equity futures were flat as investors weighed renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, but broader market forces kept activity elevated. Traders await a CPI report expected to show a headline inflation spike, while Wall Street’s biggest banks are positioned for record equity‑trading...
Iran's Economic Leverage Undermines US‑Israeli Tactical Wins
Iran controls the arteries of the global economy US-Israeli tactical wins haven’t translated into strategy. The regime stands, capabilities intact. Operational success without strategic gain is failure by another name. #Geopolitics #Energy #Strategy
Five Things to Know About the Planned Iran-US Talks in Islamabad
Pakistan will host indirect Iran‑U.S. talks aimed at extending the two‑week cease‑fire that began on April 8 after U.S. and Israeli strikes killed Iran’s supreme leader. The cease‑fire has kept the Strait of Hormuz partially closed, inflating global energy prices. Washington’s...
Iran’s Economy Stable, Mirroring Australia’s Growth Despite Media Claims
Contrary to Western propaganda, the Iranian economy DID NOT COLLAPSE prior to the recent US-Israeli attacks on Iran. Iran’s growth profile is almost identical to Australia’s. Hanke's 95% Rule: 95% of what you read in the financial press is either WRONG or...
Intermission?
A tentative cease‑fire in the Iran conflict has halted U.S. strikes, leaving President Trump without the regime‑change outcome he promised. The agreement mirrors the Obama‑era deal but comes at virtually no financial cost to the United States after billions spent...
World Shares Mostly Higher, Oil Gains Ahead of Planned US-Iran Ceasefire Talks
World equity markets rose on Friday, echoing Wall Street gains as investors priced in optimism around upcoming US‑Iran ceasefire talks in Islamabad. Asian indexes led the rally, with South Korea’s Kospi up 1.4% and Japan’s Nikkei jumping 1.8%, while Fast...
Yuan Settlements Hit Record Amid Iran war...Beijing Looks to Curb Hidden Local debt...China’s Car Exports See Growth Despite Global Volatility
China’s cross‑border payment system hit a record RMB 1.22 trillion ($178.5 bn) single‑day settlement amid heightened Middle‑East tensions, while regulators moved to block banks from creating hidden local‑government debt through agricultural loans. March saw Chinese car exports surge 73.7% to roughly 700,000...
World Food Programme Warns Lebanon Facing Food Security Crisis Due to Iran War
The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) warned that Lebanon is slipping into a food‑security crisis as the Iran‑U.S. conflict disrupts supply lines. More than 80% of markets in the south have shut down, while Beirut’s markets face soaring prices...
WTTC Report Highlights Cruise Tourism as a Powerful Force for Global Communities
The World Travel & Tourism Council’s new "Cruising for Impact" report quantifies cruise tourism’s economic heft, noting a $98.5 billion contribution to global GDP and $199 billion in total output for 2024. The sector supported 1.8 million jobs and paid $60.1 billion in wages,...
Australia Steps in to Fill Singapore's LNG Gap
An example of how Australia is using its LNG cloud to secure fuel 👇 Singapore guaranteed fuel supplies, like diesel, to Australia during leaders summit Qatar was Singapore's top LNG supplier, but those shipments have stopped due to the war. Australia can...
Taiwan’s Trade Growth Smashes All Forecasts, Lifting the 2026 Growth Outlook
Taiwan’s March trade data showed exports soaring 61.8% year‑on‑year and imports rising 38.3%, far outpacing analysts’ expectations. The surge was driven by an 81.9% jump in machinery and electrical equipment shipments, especially a 134.5% rise in information‑communication‑audio‑video products. Export prices...
Weak Loan Demand Drives Repo Rate to Three-Year Low
Bloomberg reports that weak loan demand has driven the overnight repo rate to a near three-year low, widening its gap with the PBoC’s seven-day policy rate to the widest since September 2024. The spread suggests that banks are flush with...
Why Zimbabwe Earns $400 Less Per Tonne of Lithium Than Australia — and the Bold Plan to Fix It
Zimbabwe’s lithium sector is losing $300‑$400 per tonne to Australian rivals because of under‑declared grades, undervalued shipments and transfer‑pricing that divert profits abroad. In February 2026 the Mines Minister imposed an outright ban on raw lithium concentrate exports, demanding verification...
Consumer Spending, Engine of the U.S. Economy, Is Under Strain
Higher fuel prices are pushing grocery, travel and other everyday costs upward, while a jittery stock market is dampening discretionary spending. Consumer spending, which fuels about two‑thirds of U.S. economic output, has kept the economy out of recession despite five...
Topsy-Turvy Trade: Top U.S. Deficit With 3 Countries In Last 4 Months
The United States posted its three largest monthly trade deficits in the past four months with Taiwan, Mexico and Vietnam, pushing China to fourth place. In February, the deficit with Taiwan reached $17.04 billion, slightly ahead of Mexico’s $15.40 billion and Vietnam’s...