Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Ceasefire Sends Dollar Toward Weekly Drop with US-Iran Talks in Focus
The U.S. dollar slipped on Friday, positioning it for its largest weekly decline since January as investors unwound safe‑haven bets following a fragile cease‑fire in the Gulf. The euro rose 1.8% and the pound 2% against the dollar, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars are set for near‑3% weekly gains. Diminished tail‑risk from the Iran‑Israel conflict and expectations of resumed oil shipping have shifted sentiment, prompting a 0.24% dip in the dollar index. Meanwhile, the yen weakened to 159.75 per dollar and China’s yuan posted its strongest weekly rise in 15 months.
The Iran Conflict and Fertilizer Markets: Why Brazil Faces Greater Near-Term Risk than the U.S.
The escalation between the United States, Israel and Iran has forced the Strait of Hormuz to close intermittently, tightening the global fertilizer supply chain and pushing prices to multi‑year highs. Brazil, which imports roughly 99% of its nitrogen, phosphate and...
Africa Is Losing the Iran War
The Iran‑related war in the Middle East is triggering a cascade of economic shocks across Africa. Fuel prices have jumped about 50% and global fertilizer costs are up more than 40%, straining household budgets and agricultural yields. Simultaneously, African governments...
India to Continue Buying Russian Crude Oil
Indian refiners will keep buying Russian crude oil after the U.S. 30‑day sanctions exemption expires on April 11, driven by ongoing supply uncertainty from West Asia and damaged regional infrastructure. West Asian shipments, which once supplied about half of India’s crude,...
Bet On It Book Club: For a New Liberty, Chapter 9
In Chapter 9 of *For a New Liberty*, Murray Rothbard argues that inflation and business cycles stem from government‑driven money creation, not business greed. He links rising consumer demand to expanding money supply via seigniorage and claims central‑bank rate cuts create...
Global GDP Themes and Forecasts
An outbreak of war in the Middle East is generating an energy‑driven inflation shock that threatens to delay disinflation and keep interest rates higher worldwide. The United States, as a major oil producer, is relatively insulated, though the Federal Reserve...
CPI Hits 3.3% Confirming Inflation’s Stubborn Rise
The U.S. Consumer Price Index jumped from 2.4%/yr in February to 3.3%/yr in March. That didn't surprise me. The three-month annualized CPI back in February was precisely 3.3%/yr. As I've been saying, the Fed is not going to be able to put...
Inflated Week in Review
Egg prices fell to their lowest level since early 2022, marking a 12‑month decline, while the gas component of the CPI surged to its biggest monthly gain since 1967. The ISM Services PMI showed a 21st consecutive month of expansion,...
CPI Inflation Rate Up Nearly +1%, As Expected
The U.S. Consumer Price Index for March 2026 rose 0.9% month‑over‑month, pushing the year‑over‑year inflation rate to 3.3%, the highest level in nearly two years and exactly on forecast. Core CPI eased slightly to 2.6% YoY, coming in 10 basis...
Corn Prices Poised to Fall on Iran-US Ceasefire Pact
Corn prices have slipped to a four‑week low as the US‑Iran cease‑fire removes the immediate threat of nitrogen‑fertilizer disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts at BMI, a Fitch Solutions unit, lifted their 2026 average CBOT corn forecast to 458.2 cents...
Inflation Up 3.3% in March Amid Highest Inflationary Period Since 2022
U.S. consumer prices jumped 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, the steepest rise since June 2022, as the six‑week war with Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz and pushed crude toward $100 a barrel. Gasoline surged 21.2% and all fuel categories rose...
2026 European Gas Shock Pales Beside 2022 Crisis
CHART OF THE DAY: The European natural gas crisis of 2022 vs the 2026 (so far) mini-shock. The chart starts in July (both for 2021 and 2025) and tracks prices over 2022 and YTD 2026. Of course, full caveat: the Persian...
FMI Releases Statement on March CPI Food Price Numbers
The Food Industry Association (FMI) highlighted the March Consumer Price Index, showing a 0.2% month‑over‑month dip in food‑at‑home prices while overall grocery inflation remains 1.9% higher than a year ago. Core staples such as beef, poultry, fish, eggs, cereal, bakery...
Gulf Shut‑ins Suggest Negative Prices, Futures Mislead
Here's something to think about and chew on: The mass production shut-ins across the Gulf (~13 MMbpd) imply effectively negative crude prices West of Hormuz—otherwise they could and would still be selling to someone. But futures markets are "implying" (as far as...
Every Trump Policy Proves Inflationary, Says Analyst
Dog-walking and Kernenfreude aside, all of Trump's policies have been--to one degree or another--inflationary. War: inflationary Deficit: inflationary Tariffs: inflationary Politicizing the Fed/loose money advocacy: inflationary Immigration: inflationary Cuts to renewables: inflationary Corruption: inflationary Trump cheerleaders will mumble something about the deregulation fairy and the productivity fairy...
Investors Increasingly Influenced by Industrial Policy and Technology Prowess, Amid ...
Management consultancy Kearney’s 2026 Foreign Direct Investment Confidence Index shows that despite heightened geopolitical tension, 88% of surveyed firms intend to raise FDI over the next three years. Industrial policy now ranks as a decisive factor, with 84% of investors...
CPI Trend Indicator Remains Bullish for S&P 500
Today's CPI report was in line, with the core better than expected. Our long-term CPI trend indicator doesn't care about economists' expectations or excluding short-term moves in volatile sectors. It simply compares the headline CPI to its 6-month average. It...
Latest CPI Data Show Inflation Jumping. This Is What It Means for Advisors
The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, driven by a 10.9% jump in the energy index and a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased only 0.2% month‑over‑month, missing expectations. Analysts...
Weekend Reading and MB Media Appearances
Leith van Onselen’s weekend briefing curates a global snapshot of macro‑risk, from the U.S. automatically enrolling eligible men in a draft pool to Iran’s plan to monetize the Strait of Hormuz with an estimated $64 billion annual toll revenue. The list...
Trump Has an Incentive to Strike a Deal with Iran, as Midterms Approach. But at What Cost?
A ceasefire announced on April 7 gives the Trump administration a narrow window to negotiate a settlement with Iran ahead of the November midterms. President Trump views a deal as a political off‑ramp that could soften voter concerns about a costly,...
Oil to Test Wartime Highs If Hormuz Standstill Drags
Oil could revisit wartime price peaks if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked until July, JPMorgan Chase notes. The market expects half of normal oil flows to resume by May and full capacity by June, but a slower return to...
Fed, Mortgage Rates, Likely to Hold Steady on Latest Inflation Report
The March Consumer Price Index showed a 0.9% monthly rise in headline inflation, driven largely by a 21% jump in gasoline and a 31% surge in fuel oil. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased only 0.2% month‑over‑month, staying...
Guidance: Preston Guidance: March 2026
The UK Treasury has published the March 2026 Preston guidance, releasing updated earnings and interest factors that employers must use to calculate pension reinstatement for part‑time workers. The guidance stems from 2000‑2001 European Court of Justice and House of Lords decisions...
Kenya Leaves Benchmark Lending Rate Unchanged on Inflation Jitters
Kenya’s central bank left its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 8.75% after ten consecutive cuts, citing rising inflation risks from higher global oil prices. Inflation edged up to 4.4% in March, while private‑sector activity contracted, ending a six‑month growth streak....
U.S. Hormuz Setback Signals Shift to Asymmetric Disruption
The U.S. failure to secure Hormuz is a turning point in American hegemony, argues @StevenErlanger Maybe But he frames the outcome as POLICY FAILURE when it’s really a SYSTEM CONSTRAINT The real turning point is the shift from conventional dominance to asymmetric...
Consumer Price Index up 0.9%, Fueled by Rising Price of Gas
The U.S. Consumer Price Index jumped 0.9% in March, largely propelled by a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices amid the US‑Israeli conflict with Iran. Over the past year, gas has risen 18.9%, while fuel oil climbed 44.2%, pushing the overall...
US Minerals Deal Helps Congo Raise $1.25bn in Maiden Bond
The Democratic Republic of Congo completed its inaugural sovereign Eurobond, raising $1.25 bn. The issue comprised $600 m of 2032 notes at an 8.75% yield and $650 m of 2037 notes at 9.50%, with order books reaching $2 bn and $2.8 bn respectively, allowing tighter...
Saudi Arabia Maintains Oil Exports From Key Red Sea Port for Now
Saudi Arabia’s east‑west pipeline, which feeds Red Sea export terminals, suffered a drone strike that knocked out one pumping station and cut capacity by about 700,000 barrels per day. The reduction won’t affect Yanbu’s shipments immediately because oil already in...
Starmer Told Trump to Be ‘Practical’ Amid Strait of Hormuz Tax Rumours
British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer told Donald Trump he spent most of their call discussing a practical plan to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, after warning that Trump’s actions were inflating UK energy bills. He emphasized that any...
Bond P/E Triangle Signals Potential 4.5% Yield Spike
If we invert the 10-year bond yield we get a “P/E” ratio for bonds. The chart below shows that since the 2022 rate reset, the bond P/E has been stuck in a tight triangle. That triangle could be a base,...
Tariffs and Rising Oil Prices Fuel Dual Inflation Surge
A careful look at goods prices from RBC: "beneath the surface, the ramifications of tariffs are building, and spiking oil prices will add to pre-existing tariff price pressures with both core and headline inflation rising in tandem" https://t.co/s3UBEqwL6N https://t.co/3ATUrAvoZg
Kenya Risks Loss of $40m Monthly Gulf Remittances
The World Bank warns that Kenya could lose up to $40 million each month in Gulf‑origin remittances as the Middle‑East conflict drags on. About 500,000 Kenyan workers are employed in Gulf construction and services, and their earnings are already slipping. The...
Simplified Mankiw‑Reis Shows Rate Hikes Cut Future Inflation
A slightly simplified version of Mankiw-Reis makes it trivial to compute analytic solutions, and solves one of the main problems of monetary economics, how higher interest rates lower inflation going forward https://t.co/SmAZBHBBhR
Asian Q1 Trade Surplus Rises as Chip Exports Soar
Rather large increase in the trade surplus of a couple of important Asian economies in the first quarter. Weak oil and gas import volumes in March, but mostly surging chip exports https://t.co/LP5kTo4Nfs
Wall Street’s Fear Gauge Just Flashed an Unusual Signal that Could Carry the S&P 500 to 7,400 Within Months
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee says the S&P 500’s recent rally and a VIX dip below 20 signal that the market bottom is in. The volatility gauge, which fell for the first time under 20 since the Israel‑Iran war began, is the third...
AI Chip War Sparks Investor Risks in US-China Trade
AI Chips Are A Looming Battlefield In U.S.-China Trade. What Investors Should Know. https://t.co/FcrSZnqDwz $TSMC $AMSL $INTC $MU $NVDA $TSLA
Now Is the Worst Time for Inflation and Recession
Not sure I would choose this moment for higher inflation, a recession, or worse, a combination of the two... https://t.co/KWuFPa4buE
Dollar Slips as CPI Fails to Rattle Fed’s Transitory View, Islamabad Talks Awaited
The U.S. dollar eased after March CPI came in below expectations, with headline inflation spiking on energy but core inflation remaining subdued. The softer core reading reinforced the Federal Reserve’s view that the inflation shock is transitory, keeping near‑term rate‑cut...
Normal Hormuz Traffic Won’t Ease Looming Crisis
weeks away. even if normal traffic resumes through the strait of hormuz today, this won't provide relief.
Stagnant Wages Can't Keep Pace with Rising Prices
The reason it feels hard to get ahead right now is because it's hard to get ahead right now. Wages are barely keeping up with prices, and prices are just starting to heat up. https://t.co/Lb4BnQl6Un
Pomp Dismisses CPI Data, Demands Immediate Fed Cut
CPI drops one tenth of 1% Pomp: Tariffs work, deflation is happening, the Fed needs to immediately cut to 0. CPI rises 6 tenths of a %. Pomp: 'The CPI is fake' https://t.co/xH6v2pB7Kh
March CPI Reveals Direct Cost of Trump's War
The March CPI gives us the first direct measure of the cost of Trump's war https://t.co/ffGoUMp3S3
Russia Gains Strategic Advantage From US‑Israeli Conflict
As I’ve been saying since Day One of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Russia is a big winner. https://t.co/yPgEDa0caP
Quants, Commodities and Long Vol Outperformed Amid Macro Reversal
This week: March showed how fast macro can turn. Crowded trades unraveled, discretionary funds were hit and the winners came from a very different mix: quants, commodities and long vol https://t.co/mab8WrSfpa via @LinkedIn
Europe Faces Imminent Jet Fuel Shortage, Economic Risk
Europe is running out of jet fuel Shortages loom in weeks if Hormuz stays constrained Diesel is the hemoglobin of the economy so Europe will be on economic life support soon https://t.co/52nJDPZ2vH #Energy #OilMarkets #Aviation #Geopolitics
Dollar Slides, Commodity Currencies Surge as War Winds Down
We've entered the phase where the Dollar falls hard against EM. This is driven by a mix of markets feeling like the war is winding down and oil prices still very elevated, which boosts commodity exporting countries like Brazil. Real...
Hassett Predicts Two‑month Strait Reopening, Supply Chain Implications Questioned
Hassett: Strait can be opened in two months. Really. Based on what? Is the Strait back to open transit? Or controlled by Iran? The impact on supply chains of even this time frame?
USTR Calls Chinese Vehicle Data Ban Short‑sighted, Unnecessary
USTR's Greer sees no changes in data rules that bar Chinese vehicles from US A short-sighted policy not driven by actual data security concerns, all of which are manageable... https://t.co/wyITSMvYtq
OPEC+ Supply Chains Crippled, US Fuels Global Allies
So, the oil and gas infrastructure of major OPEC+ producers in the Gulf and Russia is being blocked, disrupted, and damaged... While China is forced to halt exports of petroleum products, and the US is supplying fuel to satellite countries like...
Brazil Real Surges as Markets Sense Ukraine De‑escalation
As soon as markets decided Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 wasn't going to lead to WW3, Brazil's Real began rallying hard. It's the same now. The US is clearly eager for a ceasefire and trying to de-escalate. The Brazilian...