Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Top Five States Drive India’s Economic Growth, Says Rubix Study
Rubix Data Sciences' latest study shows that five Indian states—Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka and Gujarat—account for over 65% of the nation’s GDP and about 75% of exports. Maharashtra remains the largest economy, contributing roughly 13% of total output and reporting per‑capita income of about ₹3.09 lakh (≈ $3,700). Gujarat leads export performance with nearly a 30% share, while Karnataka’s tech‑driven growth has nearly tripled its per‑capita earnings. The report warns that while these leaders drive growth, narrowing gaps through infrastructure and finance could balance development across other states.
Gilts and European Bonds Surge as Oil Drops on Iran War Optimism
UK and European government bond yields plunged as oil prices fell 5% on optimism that the Iran war could end soon. German 10‑year yields slipped to 2.94%, the lowest level since March 18, while French and Italian yields each dropped more...
FX Alert : Peace Whispers Ignite a Full Blown Risk On Stampede
The FX market is pricing an end to the Middle‑East war before any formal peace, igniting a short‑squeeze‑driven risk‑on rally. Dollar weakness is accelerating as safe‑haven demand fades and Fed expectations turn dovish. Oil remains above $100 a barrel, with...
Oil Slides 4% to Below $100/Bbl as Middle East Uncertainty Keeps Markets on Edge
Oil prices plunged on Wednesday, with Brent June futures slipping 4.35% to $99.45 per barrel and U.S. WTI falling 3.99% to $97.34. The decline came despite signals that the U.S.-Iran conflict could be winding down, as investors reacted to lingering...
Uneven Global Convergence: Asia Surges, Japan Declines
The divergence is striking. China’s GDP per capita grew more than 10x since 2000. India and Russia followed with strong gains. At the same time, Japan saw a decline. This isn’t just growth. It’s a redistribution of economic momentum. Some economies are accelerating rapidly. Others are stabilizing or stagnating. The...
US‑Iran Conflict Spikes Oil, but Europe’s Inflation Stays Modest
CHARTS OF THE DAY: What's the inflationary impact of the US-Iran war for Europe (and thus the ECB and BoE)? Sure, the price of oil and refined products has risen. But paralells between the curent shock and the 2022 energy...
How Russia and China Are Winning the War in Iran
Iran’s aggressive campaign to close the Strait of Hormuz with mines, missiles and drone swarms has driven global energy prices sharply higher. The United States’ attempt at a quick, decisive strike has backfired, leaving a protracted conflict that threatens worldwide...
India's GST Collections Rise 8.2% to Rs 1.78 Lakh Crore in March
India's net GST collections rose 8.2% to Rs 1.78 lakh crore ($21.5 bn) in March 2026, with gross collections exceeding Rs 2 lakh crore ($24 bn). Refunds grew 13.8% to Rs 0.22 lakh crore ($2.7 bn), while domestic and import revenues increased 5.9%...
South Korea’s Economy Benefits From Robust Chip Exports and Fiscal Support
South Korea’s March exports surged 48.3% year‑on‑year, driven primarily by a 151% jump in semiconductor shipments and sharp price gains in computers and SSDs. The trade surplus expanded to $25 billion, up from $15 billion a month earlier, while imports rose 13.2%...
Govt Extends RoDTEP Benefits for Exporters Till September 30
The Indian government has extended the Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products (RoDTEP) scheme until September 30, 2026, keeping refund rates of 0.3%‑3.9% unchanged. The fiscal allocation for the program was reduced to roughly $1.2 billion for 2026‑27, far below the...
Large Japanese Companies Are More Optimistic Despite Iran Conflict, but Analysts Say This May Not Last
Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey showed large manufacturers’ optimism index climb to 17 in Q1 2026, the strongest level since late 2021, while large non‑manufacturers maintained a multi‑decade high of 36. The upbeat readings lifted the Nikkei 225 by about 4.5%, reflecting hopes that...
EU Extends Iran Sanctions, Citing Human Rights Concerns
The European Union announced on March 30 that it will extend its sanctions regime against Iran until April 13, 2027, citing persistent human‑rights violations. The package adds travel bans, asset freezes and a prohibition on exporting equipment that could be...
European Fiscal Support for High Energy Prices Still Targeted and Temporary
European governments are rolling out €200 billion (≈$215 billion) of fiscal relief to cushion households and energy‑intensive firms from soaring energy costs. The aid, delivered through cash transfers, tax rebates and temporary price caps, is deliberately narrow‑based and time‑limited, with most measures...
Preparing for a Covid-Style Crisis
The European Union is weighing a Covid‑style emergency framework to tackle a looming energy crisis sparked by the war in Iran, including joint procurement of gas and electricity. EU officials have convened rapid meetings to align policy responses, borrowing tactics...
Is Europe Ripe for Recovery? MoneyWeek Talks
Europe has long trailed the United States in equity performance, prompting investors to question what conditions could spark a continental rebound. In a MoneyWeek interview, Daniel Avigad, manager of the TM Lansdowne European Special Situations fund, outlines where he sees...
Is Europe Ripe for Recovery?
In this episode, Andrew Vernsickle talks with Daniel Avigard, manager of the TM Lansdowne European Special Situations Fund, about why Europe may be poised for a recovery after years of stagnation. Avigard points to a combination of low valuations, a...
A Post-American Persian Gulf?
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has slashed oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz to roughly five percent of normal levels and damaged Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG plant, threatening a $20 billion annual export loss. Gulf states face immediate economic...
Malaysia’s Food Prices May Spike 50% Amid Fuel Surge
Malaysia’s food prices could surge as much as 50% after an energy shock tied to the Iran war drives fuel costs higher. Traders report raw ingredient prices already up 20‑30% before the fuel jump, forcing hawkers and restaurants to consider...
Iran's Ship Leverage: Hype, No Evidence Revealed.
🚨This is an issue we have been highlighting in our publications since last week: 🚨Hype... Hype... Hype. 🌍Where are the deals that India, Malaysia, and Pakistan supposedly made with Iran to allow their ships and tankers to pass? 🚢Where are the 20...
TSMC to Mass‑Produce 3nm in Japan by 2028
TSMC to mass-produce 3nm in Japan by 2028 (15k wafers/mo). Macro: advances node capacity and onshoring. Risks: capex, execution, geopolitics. Trade: overweight semiconductor equipment. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
USD-Backed Stablecoins Fuel Nigeria’s Trade Amid FX Uncertainty
Fintech Verto’s CEO Ola Oyetayo says Nigeria’s recent naira volatility has pushed businesses toward USD‑backed stablecoins for cross‑border trade. Traditional banking liquidity dried up, prompting payment providers to use mixed local and global pools and dynamic pricing. The Central Bank...
Fuel Crises Force Asian Leaders to Choose Welfare or Deficits
So we now seem to have fuel price caps and three airlines in emergency management in South Korea, have had school closures in Bangladesh and Pakistan, jet fuel rationing and a push to work-from-home in Vietnam, alternate-day driving for private...
Global Equities Surge as US Indices Jump
Global Market Update: Gift Nifty +374.00 (1.67%) 22,806.50 Dow Jones +1,125.37 (+2.49%) 46,341.51 Nasdaq +795.99 (+3.83%) 21,590.63 India Vix +1.0850 (+4.05%) 27.8875 S&P 500 +184.80 (+2.91%) 6,528.52
Federal Shutdown Slashes Q4 GDP Growth to 1.4% Annualized
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that a 43‑day federal shutdown from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12, 2025, pulled fourth‑quarter GDP growth to a 1.4% annualized rate, far below the 4.4% pace in Q3. The slowdown reflects a loss of roughly 1.5...
Russian Oil Tanker Delivers 730,000 Barrels to Cuba Amid U.S. Blockade
A Russian-flagged tanker carrying 730,000 barrels of crude arrived in Havana, breaking a U.S.-imposed oil blockade that has left most of Cuba without fuel. The delivery, welcomed by a beleaguered population, underscores the geopolitical tug‑of‑war between Moscow, Washington and Havana.
Pacific Islands Energy Crisis: One Country Faces Fuel Import Bills Three Times Its Healthcare Budget
The war in the Middle East has pushed Brent crude above $100 a barrel, threatening diesel‑dependent Pacific economies. Fiji could see its imported fuel bill jump $670 million by 2025—about three times its annual healthcare budget—while Vanuatu faces a potential $120 million...
Anticipating April 10 (March CPI Release)
The Cleveland Federal Reserve nowcast shows headline CPI rising 0.84% month‑over‑month in March, driven largely by sharp increases in gasoline and diesel prices. Weekly gasoline prices are up 26.2% year‑over‑year, while diesel has surged 50.4% over the same period. By...
Force Chinese OEMs to US Production, Transfer IP
I think we should rip a page from the Chinese playbook and tell Chinese OEMs if they want to sell to American consumers, they must open up production in the US with an American OEM. As part of that arrangement,...
The Petrochemicals Shock That Is Already Rippling Through Plastics
The war in Iran is throttling global oil supplies, which also serve as the primary feedstock for petrochemicals. This disruption has sent polyethylene prices soaring, with some Asian producers announcing force majeure and cutting output. Analysts warn that a significant...
Markets Kick Off Q2 Bullish on Yield Drop, Asia Gains
Markets looking to start 2Q 2026 on positive note: •US stocks ended 1Q last day sharply higher. Led by Mag 7 stocks up as much as 7%. •10 UST yield softened to 4.29% •S Korea and Japan up 3-4% early morning •Gold higher...
US‑aligned Control of Hormuz Signals Bullish Market Outlook
If usa friendly regime takes control of strait of Hormuz it will be very bullish., https://t.co/bpWTMUPjFa
Manufacturing Slips Into Contraction as Inflation Pressures Mount, S&P Global Says
Australia’s manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.8 in March, pushing the sector back into contraction for the first time since early 2024. New orders fell for the first time in five months while production declined for a second straight month, reflecting...
China Accelerates Local Debt Cleanup via Central Debt Swap
1/4 Yicai: "China’s local debt cleanup is moving faster, with the central government’s debt swap program simultaneously lowering borrowing costs and shrinking the implicit debt pile." https://t.co/Ru3dUFDjL5
US Taps Pakistan for Iran Peace Despite Double‑dealing
#PakWatch🇵🇰: In a stunning move, the US has chosen Pakistan as an intermediator for US-Iranian peace talks. Washington has apparently forgotten Pak’s double-dealing with the both the US and the Taliban during the Afghan war. FREE IMRAN KHAN. https://t.co/kL20qXe4Ih
FII Exodus Hits Record Rs 1.6 Lakh Crore in FY26 Despite Strong DII Cushion
Foreign investors withdrew a record $19 billion (≈₹1.6 lakh crore) from Indian equities in FY26, marking the second consecutive year of outflows. Domestic institutions countered the sell‑off with a historic $102 billion (≈₹8.5 lakh crore) inflow, led by mutual funds, pension funds and insurers. The rupee’s 4 %...
China and India: BRICS’ Demographic and Economic Powerhouses
There are two elephants in the BRICS room, China and India. They not only have a combined population of over 2.8 BILLION, but economic firepower too. https://t.co/nrI5ZlnwBg
Rising Oil Prices Could Trim India's Growth Outlook
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India’s 7.0% - 7.4% growth outlook will be downgraded. Harvard Prof and former First Deputy Managing Director of IMF Gita Gopinath warns that if OIL AVERAGES $85-$100 PER BARREL, INDIA LOSES 0.5-1% OF GROWTH. MODI SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR...
Investors Sour on Aussie Property Market
Investor demand for Australian housing is waning as rising interest rates, low yields, and the phasing out of property tax concessions bite. February housing credit growth slowed to 0.58% month‑over‑month, down from a recent 0.65% peak. Investor‑driven credit growth fell...
March Sees Record $12 Trillion Global Market Wipeout
Global stocks lost $12 trillion in March, the single-largest value wipeout on record in a single month (≠ to worst month on record; that's still Oct 2008, just that now the market is much much bigger) https://t.co/8vhOHCCPTu
China SOE Profits and Taxes Slip Despite Modest Growth
Xinhua: "China's SOEs saw their total revenue rise 0.2 percent year on year in the first two months of 2026, while total profits fell 2 percent and total tax payments fell 2.3 percent." This in an economy that grew nominally by...
Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF Beats S&P 500, Nasdaq‑100 and Dow in 2026
Vanguard's Russell 2000 ETF (VTWO) has held steady through the first half of 2026, while the S&P 500, Nasdaq‑100 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each slipped more than 5% year‑to‑date. The fund’s diversified small‑cap exposure and low concentration have insulated...
Iran Deal Triggers 20‑30% Market Correction, Exposing US Vulnerabilities
Iran is Trump's Waterloo He won’t be able to spin this as a “win,” says @RanaForoohar Oil shock + AI unwind + credit crack = a fast, market-led 20-30% correction. The K-economy masks the impact on most Americans #OilMarkets #AI #Credit #Recession
Indian Refineries Pivot From Europe to Africa
🇮🇳Indian refineries shifted their dependence on European markets to African markets. Tomorrow, Wednesday, we will publish a surprising chart about India in the Daily Energy Report: https://t.co/gGaADYgO1p https://t.co/LUhtseUn6Z
WTO's Yaoundé Setback Signals Need for Fundamental Reform
1/9 The FT argues that the WTO was further wounded in the recent Yaoundé meeting. This was probably inevitable. Unless the WTO arranges a transformation of its role in global trade, it is hard to see its continuing relevance. https://t.co/1Xy5w1ESZZ
U.S.
“We are attacking every center of gravity right now…it is a system that’s been attacked, every capability that Iran has has been dismantled not just for today, but for tomorrow…attacking not only their capability but their will.”My talk tonight with...
India Doubles Russian Oil Imports, Undermining Sanctions
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Since the US-Israeli war on Iran started, India’s oil imports from Russia have nearly doubled. Good news. IT’S A SIGN THAT THE ILL-CONCEIVED SANCTIONS REGIME IS STARTING TO BREAK DOWN. https://t.co/XzP5Xxh83g
Rupee May Hit Record 100 per Dollar Amid Iran Crisis
JUST IN: Analysts predict the Indian rupee could drop to a record 100 against the dollar or further if the Iran crisis persists.
Gulf Oil Transit Dries up, Sparking Price Crunch
Oil from the Gulf that has been in transit to its destinations is about to dry up. Then, there will be a crunch. Paul Krugman employs standard econ arithmetic to end up with a price range of $99/BBL to 372/BBL, depending...
US Seizes Nine Ships Carrying 20M+ Barrels to China
Nine vessels seized by the U.S. since it began taking direct action against the so-called shadow fleet that transport illicit oil around the world have delivered more than 20 million barrels of Iranian crude to China since 2013. @Kubota_Yoko https://t.co/43BnQE09kQ
US Imports Plunge in 2025 After Trump Tariffs
The one year anniversary of Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs is Thursday (April 2). This pieces asks: What happened to US imports in 2025, in light of all of those Trump tariffs? If you 💕💕💕 charts, you will want to read 👇