Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Oil Spikes, Stocks Hit. Treasury Expected to Intervene in Energy Market. NFP Tomorrow.
Oil prices spiked above $80 a barrel after Iran‑related tensions, prompting the White House Treasury to signal possible futures market intervention. The announcement eased oil back below $80, allowing equities to recover modestly, with the S&P 500 down 0.6% and the Nasdaq off 0.3% for the day. Treasury yields rose to roughly 4.15%, the VIX fell to 23.5, and the dollar briefly touched 99.40. Upcoming non‑farm payrolls and retail sales add further uncertainty to market direction.
TPM26: War a Problem for Container Shipping, but Not ‘Pandemic-Scale’: Analyst
Analyst Lars Jensen told the TPM 26 conference that the Middle‑East war, which has shut the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, poses a problem for container shipping but falls short of pandemic‑scale disruption. He emphasized that while the conflict will...
The Domino Effect of Operation Epic Fury
Operation Epic Fury, the United States’ six‑day campaign against Iran, is already reshaping Middle‑East power dynamics. The strikes have degraded Iran’s ability to fund and direct Islamist proxies such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, weakening their operational capacity. With Tehran’s...
Side-by-Side Implementation Is a Good Start, but It’s Just the Beginning
EU member states are beginning to enact the G7 side‑by‑side agreement that places the United States’ tax carve‑out on equal footing with the OECD global minimum tax framework. The move translates a political commitment into national legislation, offering the first...
US Urges Oil Shift to Pressure China, Russia
"I know I said last April that 'as the debtor country, America has all the leverage v. China'...& I know we are actively trying to choke out both you AND Russia...but could you buy less oil from Russia & more...
Windward Daily Brief March 5: Conflict Reaches Indian Ocean as Hormuz Remains Shut
The Strait of Hormuz remained effectively shut on March 4, with only five vessels recorded, while traffic through Bab el‑Mandeb surged to 23 crossings, outpacing recent averages. Suez Canal activity fell to 23 transits, below trend levels, and diversions around the...
Is Cyprus Getting Drawn Into the Israel – Iran War as the First EU Country Risking Its Tourism Industry?
The U.S. State Department issued a Level 3 “Reconsider Travel” advisory for Cyprus amid escalating Israel‑Iran tensions, warning American tourists of regional security risks. Cyprus, an EU island whose tourism sector contributes more than 10% of GDP and supports tens of...
Annual Inflation in Uzbekistan Ticks up 0.1pp to 7.3% in February
Uzbekistan’s annual inflation ticked up to 7.3% in February, a modest 0.1 percentage‑point rise from January and still 2.8 points below the 10.1% recorded a year earlier. Monthly inflation eased to 0.6% month‑on‑month, while core inflation rose to 0.5% month‑on‑month, pushing...
RELEX Report: 86% of Supply Chain Leaders Impacted by Tariffs and Economic Pressures as Companies Split on Pricing and Inventory...
A RELEX survey finds 86% of supply‑chain leaders say recent tariffs and broader economic pressures have already disrupted operations. More than half of respondents have raised consumer prices, while 24% are shifting sourcing away from affected regions. Companies are split...
MoSPI to Launch New Surveys, Boost High-Frequency Economic Indicators: Saurabh Garg
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) has completed base‑year revisions for the CPI and GDP and is now turning to high‑frequency economic indicators. A trial Index of Services Production (ISP) will be released in 2026, supported by a...
Not Going, Bananas: Ramzan Ripe Time for Most-Exported Fruit but Iran War a Spoiler
India’s banana exports, worth roughly ₹3,500 crore annually, are being hit by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The blockage has stranded 1,500–2,000 containers, valued at up to ₹200 crore, just as Maharashtra ramps up shipments for Ramzan demand across the...
Coal Demand Splits; Warrior Met Poised for Rebound
Macro: coal demand bifurcates—metallurgical firm, thermal pressured. Key factors: Warrior Met's Q4 strength; Peabody's diversified mix. Risks: regulation, China slowdown. Trade: Buy Warrior Met on pullback. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Middle East War Disrupts U.S. B2B Ecommerce Supply Chains
Escalating conflict between Iran, Israel and the United States is disrupting key air and maritime corridors in the Persian Gulf, notably the Strait of Hormuz. The disruptions are lengthening transit times, raising freight costs, and forcing carriers like DHL to...
Druzhba Idle as Hungary Secures Russian Oil Supply Guarantees
Hungary has secured a guarantee from Russia to resume crude deliveries, yet the Druzhba pipeline remains idle for both Hungary and Slovakia. The EU stepped in to mediate the dispute, but no operational agreement has been reached. The suspension persists...
Avoid Annington Bonds Amid Repayment Shock Risk
Macro: credit litigation; GLAS sues Annington for £1.56bn over 2032–2051 bonds. Key: issuer rejects acceleration. Risk: repayment shock, guarantor strain. Trading insight: avoid Annington bonds. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Navigating Euro Credit: Fundamentals, Valuations & Technicals
Pim van Mourik Broekman outlines the Euro credit market’s current landscape, highlighting overweight financials and utilities versus underweight industrials. He warns that geopolitical tensions and divergent central‑bank policies—particularly the ECB’s dovish stance against the Fed’s tightening—could steepen the yield curve. Valuations...
More Than 20 States Challenge Trump's New Tariffs
Around two dozen Democratic‑led states have filed a lawsuit challenging President Trump’s new 15% global tariffs imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The states argue the president exceeds his authority, noting that Section 122 was designed for narrow...
Crypto Crime Hits Record $154 Billion as Sanctioned States Turn to Blockchain
Illicit cryptocurrency activity hit a record $154 billion in 2025, driven largely by a 694% year‑over‑year surge in sanctions‑evasion flows to prohibited entities. Nation‑states such as Russia, North Korea and Iran leveraged on‑chain tokens and stablecoins to bypass financial restrictions, while...
Enforce Sanctions to Prevent Russia From Benefitting in a Prolonged Iran Crisis
The United States and its allies are warning that the Iran‑Israel conflict could lift oil prices to $80‑plus per barrel, creating a lucrative window for Russia’s sanctioned oil stockpiles. Russia, facing dwindling revenues after years of sanctions, now eyes the...
Seafarers Maintain the Right to Refuse to Sail Through Mideast Gulf Region
Seafarers can now refuse to sail through the Middle East Gulf after the threat level was raised to its highest, according to the International Transport Workers’ Federation and the International Bargaining Forum. The agreement allows crew to decline voyages in...
Oil Curve Downplays Iran War, Raises Market Tension
Who knows whether its valid or not, but the oil curve is fading the Iran war so far and seems to think this wraps up pretty quickly. No idea whether that's valid pricing or not but does increase the tension...
Iran Risk Unpriced; Oil, USD, Yields Threaten Market Crash
I did a rant this morning live in my trading room of what to buy and what to avoid and what to short and my HIGH conviction Iran Risk Is Not Priced In - as I have been writing about...
Mideast War Casts Cloud on Gulf Petchems, Other Industries
Iran's retaliatory strikes on energy infrastructure in the Gulf have effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for a fifth of global oil shipments. The shutdown immediately disrupted energy‑intensive sectors in the region, notably petrochemicals, fertilizers and aluminum, curtailing...
Political Risk Soars: Trim Govt Comms Supplier Exposure
Macro: political risk rises after $220M DHS ad probe. Key: high-profile Noem campaign, bipartisan scrutiny. Risks: reputational, budget cuts. Trade insight: trim exposure to govt comms suppliers. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Iran War Exposes Fossil Fuel’s Hidden Global Costs
On The Climate Brink, my latest post is on what the war in Iran tells us about the hidden costs of fossil fuels https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the-war-in-iran-shows-us-another
Apple Blocks US Users From Downloading ByteDance’s Chinese Apps
Apple has begun blocking U.S. iPhone users from downloading or updating any ByteDance‑owned apps that are intended for the Chinese market, including Douyin, Doubao, and Fanqie Novel. The restriction, enforced through on‑device geolocation checks, follows the Protecting Americans from Foreign...
Excluding Autocracies Boosts Emerging Market ETF Returns
ADDITION BY SUBTRACTION: What happens when you take the MSCI EM Index and start kicking out autocratic countries with low freedom scores (eg China, Russia) and use that excess budget to load up on freer countries? You crush the benchmark....
Ukraine Brings Back 200 POWs in Latest Swap with Russia, Zelenskiy Says
On March 5, 2026 Ukraine announced the return of 200 prisoners of war in a new exchange with Russia. The group includes combatants seized during the 2022 siege of Mariupol, highlighting the lingering human cost of that battle. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy posted on...
Middle East Chaos Stems From Erosion in International Law, EU's Kallas Says
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas warned that the current turmoil in the Middle East stems from a systematic erosion of international law. She blamed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for emboldening other actors, and singled out China’s expansionist moves in...
Christine Lagarde: Technology, Fragmentation and the New Uncertainty
In her 2026 Global Risk Lecture, ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that the world is shifting from a measurable‑risk environment to genuine uncertainty driven by rapid AI adoption and escalating geopolitical fragmentation. She cited estimates that AI could add up...
US Debt Surge Meets Historic Oil Shock, Spiraling Risks
In 1973, US debt/GDP was 32%, deficit/GDP was 1%, & NIIP/GDP was +10%. There was no level of inflation & rates that could push the US into a debt spiral. Today those #’s are 122%, 6%, & -90%, & 4.8% 10y...
Geopolitics Ignored by HFT, Active Management Becomes Vital
The HFT algos/CTA trend followers don't discount geopolitics very well. If @hkuppy is right, he makes a real case why active management is of ultimate importance when there is a real global change. The VIX is not mean reverting this time,...
NVIDIA Stops China-Focused H200 "Hopper" GPU Production
NVIDIA has halted production of its China‑focused H200 Hopper GPU at TSMC, leaving roughly 250,000 units in inventory awaiting U.S. export clearance and Chinese import permits. The pause follows export‑control constraints that limit the chips to non‑security‑sensitive applications. NVIDIA plans...
Three Paths for a New Fed‑Treasury Accord
Guest post by @Petercontibrown on three potential paths for a new Fed-Treasury accord. https://t.co/99ynaEpsMi @NickTimiraos @colbyLsmith @amacker @vtg2 @senoj_erialc https://t.co/xKOGn0fS5W
Iran War Day 6: Energy Crises, Regime Splits, Ukraine Links
The Iran War - Day 6: Energy Disruption, Regime Fragmentation, and Ukraine You are watching a full preview of Peter's coverage of the Iran War. Join our Analyst Tier on Patreon to access daily videos and analysis of...
Exclusive-NATO's Rutte 'Not Deaf' To Criticism of His Trump Praise, Offers More
NATO secretary‑general Mark Rutte defended his habit of praising U.S. President Donald Trump, acknowledging criticism but insisting the admiration is warranted. He credited Trump with helping NATO adopt a new 5 % of GDP defence‑spending target, a significant increase from the...
USD Breakout Tested at January High Ahead of NFP
US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Breakout Faces Major Test at January High- NFP on Tap https://t.co/ww8j824xfZ $DXY Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/7sX9giMwmH
Weak Job Market Affects All Young Workers, Not Just Grads
Everyone is trying to explain the mystery of why the job market is weak for college grads, most blaming AI. But that IS NOT THE MYSTERY. The mystery is why is it weak for young workers of ALL EDUCATION LEVELS...
Amazon Haul Has Over 3,000 Sellers
Amazon Haul, the low‑price, direct‑from‑China storefront, now hosts 3,287 sellers after launching in November 2024. The platform’s seller base is heavily China‑registered and generates roughly $2 billion in annual GMV, with most sellers offering items under $20. Amazon has backed the...
Oil Spike Highlights Renewables' Growing Competitive Edge
The Middle East conflict is stress testing global energy. Bloomberg sees oil at $108 in a severe escalation. We have seen this before. The difference now is that solar and batteries are more cost competitive. Every fossil fuel spike strengthens the...
Sudan's Pound Plummets 28%, Ranks 6th Worst Globally
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 6TH WORST CURRENCY. The pound has depreciated by 28% over the past year. https://t.co/6WS2fKoH6r
US Invites Proposals to Boost Supply of Tungsten and 12 Other Critical Minerals
The Defense Industrial Base Consortium (DIBC) announced that the U.S. military is inviting proposals to develop domestic production of 13 critical minerals, including tungsten, arsenic and nickel, with submissions due March 20, 2026. The request covers the entire value chain—from...
No Ships in Hormuz Strait: Explained Why
Why Are There No Ships in the Strait of Hormuz | March 5, 2026, Update Video: https://t.co/tcPFyfGeV8 https://t.co/Wgk4B6EEIp
War's Ripple: Beyond Russia-Ukraine, Global Complexity Unfolds
There is a lot to be learned from markets following the Russia-Ukraine invasion, except this conflict is larger and more complex. Russia (140M ppl) invaded Ukraine (40M ppl). This conflict involves more countries, supply chains, resources and critical geography.
Oil Spikes, yet Inflation Expectations Stay Flat.
Oil prices are surging, but inflation expectations aren't moving. Bond markets still pricing in a world that may no longer exist. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/6C4VK744Ql
Erdoğan Faces US‑backed Kurdish Arms Amid PKK Talks
While the CIA arms Iranian Kurds in Iraq, Turkey is in the middle of disarmament talks with the PKK. I wonder what Erdoğan thinks about the latest US entanglement with the Kurds? https://t.co/iaq2Xp2XeS
Oil Signals Calm Iran Conflict, Stocks Set to Rise
Jim Cramer says the oil market is signaling the Iran war won't spiral, and that's bullish for stocks, per CNBC 🤦🏻♂️
Rigid European Labor Markets Hinder Demand Shock Response
Why are Europe’s rigid labor markets so bad? They turn a flow into a stock, which generates not great reactions to demand shocks. https://t.co/TqgDgtU9nj
Loonie Gains as Middle East Turmoil Boosts Petrocurrency Appeal
loonie strengthens amid middle east chaos. upside of being a quasi petrocurrency i guess https://t.co/kfnMOPwxal
Iran Tensions Fail to Boost Bonds, Rates Keep Climbing
Bonds have not gotten the safe haven bid since Iran action commenced last Friday evening. $TLT - Rates still moving higher.