Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Asia Week Ahead: Focus on Japan’s GDP Data and Key Inflation Release From China
Japan is set to revise its 2025 Q4 GDP upward to 0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter, driven by strong winter bonuses and a rebound in capital spending. In China, February CPI is expected to rise to 1.0% year‑on‑year, buoyed by Lunar New Year demand, while export and import volumes are forecast to jump 9.3% and 8.5% respectively, yielding a $188.1 bn trade surplus. Both data points will shape regional monetary policy and investor sentiment ahead of key central‑bank meetings.
Reliance Diesel, Jet Fuel Ships Turn to Asia Instead of Europe Amid Iran War
Reliance Industries rerouted two fuel tankers—about 100,000 metric tons of diesel and 75,000 tons of jet fuel—from Europe to Asia as the Iran‑Israel conflict chokes supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Asian jet‑fuel margins surged to a record $80 a...
Despite Ban, Russian Seafood Is Still the Main Dish on some American Plates
The United States banned Russian seafood imports in 2022, yet Russian fish continues to appear on American plates through Chinese processing facilities that re‑label the product as Chinese. This loophole exploits the trade‑law concept of "substantial transformation," allowing harvested fish...
Gold Digger: Drums of War Have Gold Bugs Calling for US$6000
Gold prices are being pushed higher as Middle East conflict escalates, with Argonaut raising its 12‑month target to $6,000 per ounce and State Street assigning a 35% probability to a bull case of $5,500‑$6,250. Safe‑haven demand has lifted gold ETF...
US-Israel-Iran War: JMIC Data Shows ‘Near-Total Temporary Pause in Routine Commercial Traffic’ Through Strait of Hormuz
JMIC data shows routine commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has virtually stopped, with only two cargo vessels recorded in the past 24 hours versus the usual 138. The pause follows a U.S.–Israel strike on Iran and Iran’s retaliatory...
US Pushes Formal Venezuelan Critical Minerals Value Chain
US critical minerals talks in Caracas signal a push for a formal Venezuelan mining value chain. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/us-critical-minerals-supply-chain-in.html
IMF Chief Says Ready to Act if Countries Crippled by Middle East Conflict Need Help — ‘We Recognise Our Responsibility’
The International Monetary Fund announced it is prepared to assist nations whose balance‑of‑payments are strained by the escalating Middle East conflict. Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that higher energy prices could lift inflation by 40 basis points and shave up...
Building Businesses and Firms that Build “Made in Europe” Brands
Isabel Schnabel, ECB executive board member, urged the EU to create a unified "28th regime" that gives firms seamless access to the entire Single Market. She argued that Europe’s main deficit is scale, not innovation, and that internal regulatory barriers...
BOJ Policymaker Himino: Underlying Inflation Gradually Accelerating to 2% Target
Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymaker Hiroshi Himino said underlying inflation is gradually accelerating toward the bank's 2% price‑stability target, while the central bank keeps monetary conditions broadly accommodative. He emphasized that the BOJ will fine‑tune the degree of accommodation but...
Precision-Guided Predictions: Intelligence Risk in Prediction Markets
The article warns that prediction markets such as Polymarket are becoming real‑time sensors for classified military intent, citing the 2024 Maduro removal bet, a 2026 Israeli insider‑trading indictment, and the failed DARPA Policy Analysis Market. It explains how contract spikes...
War in Iran, Healthcare Resurgence & Isa Changes: The Companies and Markets Show
The episode examines the fallout from the US‑Israel strike on Iran, with Mike Ferhey explaining how disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on LNG facilities are driving sharp spikes in oil and gas prices, pressuring European energy markets,...
Philippines Battles US-Iran War Fuel Crisis with Air Con Limits, Flexible Work Plan
The Philippines, heavily dependent on imported oil, is confronting rising fuel costs driven by Middle East tensions. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. ordered government offices to keep air‑conditioners at a minimum of 24 °C and is exploring flexible or four‑day work weeks...
This Week's Chart, Next Week's Markets
The market outlook for the coming week centers on four key data releases: Japan’s final Q4‑2024 GDP estimate on Sunday, the Baden‑Wurttemberg state election in Germany on Monday, U.S. February CPI on Wednesday, and the Core PCE price index for...
Profile of Myrto Kalouptsidi: How Shipping and Industrial Policy Shapes the Global Economy
Myrto Kalouptsidi, a Harvard economist highlighted in the IMF’s *Finance and Development*, studies how maritime shipping underpins roughly $20 trillion of annual global trade. Her research reveals that shipping costs and industrial policies directly shape trade patterns, supply‑chain resilience, and the...
TWIFO 487: An Explosive Week in Energy, Equity, Crypto and More
In this episode of This Week in Futures Options, host Mark Longo and CME Group chief economist Eric Norland dissect a volatile week across energy, equity, and crypto markets. They highlight heating oil, crude oil, and natural gas as the...
Will China Overplay Its Hand?
The Trump‑Xi summit scheduled for late‑2026 follows a fragile 2025 Busan truce that temporarily halted tariffs and export bans. While the pause eased immediate market stress, critical issues such as transshipment tariffs, rare‑earth and high‑end semiconductor controls remain unresolved. Chinese...
India & China Must-Win Markets on Rising Middle-Class Households: Reckitt Chief
Reckitt Benckiser’s CEO Kris Licht declared India and China must‑win markets as middle‑class households there now outnumber those in Europe and the United States combined. Emerging markets now represent about 42 % of Reckitt’s core net revenue, with India and China...
South Korean Inflation Holds Steady, but Upside Risks Are Increasing Sharply
South Korea's headline CPI held at 2.0% year‑on‑year in February, while core inflation rose to 2.3%. Fresh food and petroleum prices fell, but service costs increased, showing lingering price pressure. Higher global oil prices and a weakening won have sharpened...
Australia Exports 91,511t Chickpeas, 300,009t Lentils in Jan
Australia shipped 91,511 tonnes of chickpeas and 300,009 tonnes of lentils in January, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Chickpea exports collapsed 85% from the December peak of 594,201 tonnes, while lentil shipments slipped 5% from December’s 316,358 tonnes....
RANKED: Top 20 Automakers by Battery Metals Spending
The global passenger EV market grew 18% YoY in 2025, pushing battery capacity deployment past 1 TWh for the first time. Raw‑material costs for lithium, graphite, nickel, cobalt and manganese reached $15.6 billion, an 11% rise over 2024 but still half of...
Royal Caribbean Group Proposes Ship Repair Yard for Panama's Pacific Coast
Royal Caribbean Group has presented Panama’s president with a proposal to build a 400‑meter, 130,000‑ton floating dry dock on the Pacific coast near Puerto Armuelles. The facility, slated for operation by 2031, would service the cruise line’s largest ships and...
US Grants India Waiver for Russian Oil Loaded by March 5
There is a caveat to the Russia oil waiver for India — “loaded on vessels as of March 5”. The Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is issuing Russia-related General License 133, "Authorizing the Delivery and Sale...
Euro‑area Growth Revised Down From Year‑end Estimate
The euro-area economy expanded less than initially reported at the end of last year https://t.co/flsqVlKh6v via @jrandow https://t.co/OCSdYYfIil
Sanctions and Financial Repression
The interview with Oleg Itskhoki examines how Russia employed financial repression in 2022 to weather the largest post‑war sanctions package. By banning cash withdrawals and obligating exporters to surrender foreign‑currency earnings, Moscow halted a ruble freefall and stabilized its fiscal...
IEA Chief Urges EU to Accelerate Clean Energy Transition
International Energy Agency executive-director Fatih Birol just spoke to journalists in Brussels after meeting with EU leaders. Here his main messages from the presser: https://t.co/uzZVrc46zi
Hormuz Strait Closure Halts Major Global Oil Flow
The Straight of Hormuz, which is a key shipping lane for the world's oil, fertilizer and other products, is effectively shut. Charts from @bloomberg: https://t.co/zunbN3eO7G
Asian Development Bank Giving Central Asia Lots of Attention
The Asian Development Bank announced a $5.4 billion financing plan for Kazakhstan, a $1.1 billion package for Tajikistan, and a $2.5 billion commitment to Azerbaijan, all aimed at strengthening the Middle Corridor trade route. The bank also launched a technical assistance program to...
US Temporarily Relaxes Russian Oil Sanctions for India
The US is temporarily easing sanctions on Russian oil sales to India to address supply shortages and reduce the impact of the surge in prices in the wake of US and Israeli attacks on Iran. The decision to ease sanctions...
Korea's Rare Mix: Booming Stocks, Huge Surplus, Weak Won
Korea is a super interesting case (even before the latest events in the Gulf). Surging current account surplus (10% of GDP), surging domestic stock market and a very weak currency are an unusual combination 1/
Asian Marco Initial Thoughts: Weakness in Markets Continues as Oil Rises. US Payrolls Could Add 'Fuel to the Fire' Tonight....
Asian markets posted a modest rebound on Thursday, with only Vietnam slipping, as rising oil prices and heightened tensions over the US‑Israel strike on Iran weigh on sentiment. The US dollar strengthened and European bond yields climbed, while a poll...
Swedish Central Bank Urges Cash Hoarding Amid Payment Risks
Swedish central bank urges public to horde cash in case of payments disruption https://t.co/ckNfNUQsve "The Riskbank is currently working on improving the possibility of making offline payments by card to strengthen resilience." https://t.co/yLYmWsDoh0
Low Volatility Seeds Future Turbulence; Powell‑Trained Models Miss Warsh
Low vol begets high vol, to paraphrase Minsky. Systems trained on Powell, and they all have been trained on Powell, will struggle to interpret Warsh… especially as he himself will struggle with the same.
In Trump’s Precarious World, NZ Will Need All the Middle-Sized Friends It Can Get
New Zealand faces a shifting global order as Donald Trump’s America‑first agenda threatens the rules‑based system the country has long relied on. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s call for middle powers to devise practical “workarounds” highlights the urgency for smaller...
Fed
Update on the Fed’s Balance Sheet and its Reserve Management Purchases. Adding T-bills, shedding MBS, Treasury note & bond balances on ice, SRF unused https://t.co/M947SfSoUP https://t.co/c3uHc5VmGA
China Lithium Prices Plunge Amid Weak EV Demand, War Uncertainty
China lithium prices tumble as weak EV sales, Middle East war cloud demand outlook https://t.co/8TqB23mggy
GCC Banks Show Resilience Amid Regional Conflict
GCC banks have shown resilience as the region endures fresh hostilities between Israel, the United States and Iran. Central Bank of the UAE reported banking assets above AED 5.42 trillion with a 17 % capital adequacy ratio and 146.6 % liquidity coverage ratio, both...
US Blocks India’s Currency Advantage, Mirrors China Policy
Why are we surprised by 👇? I wrote this nearly six years ago, in the context of why the US won’t allow India the same freedom of an undervalued currency that it accorded China: https://t.co/sZ45dDSSRv
78% Fear Inflation, Making Affordability Crisis Trump’s Weakness
According to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, 78% of Americans say inflation is a very big concern for them personally. AFFORDABILITY = GOING TO GET WORSE = TRUMP'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/z3qgrkZ7V2
US Trade Deal Steals a Fifth of Indonesian Wheat Demand From Australia
Indonesia has signed a memorandum of understanding to import roughly 2 million tonnes of wheat annually from the United States, representing about 17% of its total wheat demand. The deal effectively earmarks a fifth of the market for U.S. exporters, removing...
Investors Rotating From US Tech to Commodities and Bonds
"We are in the first phase of a great rotation away from the US FANG+ and related stocks, semiconductor, and AI software companies towards oil & gas, utilities, emerging market, and resource stocks, and Treasury bonds." - Marc Faber
Dollar Index May Hit Record as Other Currencies Collapse
This paints a potential scenario for how the dollar index could return to its all time high. Not bc it is great. But bc all other fiat will fail first.
Courts Signal Path for Manufacturers to Reap Billions in IEEPA Tariff Refunds
The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that all importers of record subject to IEEPA duties are eligible for refunds after the Supreme Court struck down those tariffs. Courts have ordered Customs to begin issuing refunds, and more than 900...
RBI Dollar Sales Trigger Rupee's Biggest Asian Surge
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: After the rupee hit a record low, India’s central bank sold dollars. Then, the Rupee SURGED, with the biggest gain in Asia today. https://t.co/rzGC4rj8Kv
US Grants India 30‑Day Waiver for Stranded Russian Oil
This will help. But crucial to understand: India’s total crude imports are ~5.5 mil b/d. This is a minor offset to 20 mil b/d locked out of the market. Washington appears set on offering a drip-feed of relief to a major oil...
The Renminbi Is Winning over Africa—But Can It Rival the Dollar?
The US dollar still dominates Africa’s trade, finance and debt, but China’s renminbi is gaining traction. African policymakers have launched the Pan‑African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) to enable local‑currency cross‑border payments, yet adoption remains modest. Since 2024, renminbi usage...
Mortgage Rates Set for Volatile Swings Amid Global Uncertainty
My biggest takeaway right now regarding mortgage rates is to expect heightened volatility. They will likely bounce around a lot more than normal thanks to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The good news is 30-year fixed rates remain near ~3-year...
Japanese Stocks Surge; Fund Gains 6.7% Amid Yen Drag
February was another strong month for the Japanese equity market and for Senjin Capital Fund I. The Fund’s unit price increased 6.7% in AU$ terms, despite a ~3% FX drag from the weakening Yen. The Fund has now returned 48% net of...
First Nations Coalition Says Indigenous Equity Key to Faster Mining Approvals in Canada
The First Nations Major Projects Coalition (FNMPC) is championing Indigenous equity ownership as a catalyst for faster mining and energy project approvals across Canada. By providing technical, regulatory and financial support, the coalition helps First Nations move from consultation to...
Shipping Rates Surge, Yet Hormuz Crisis Looms
Container Shipping Rates Rise as Asian Factories Reopen—But Hormuz Crisis Threatens New Shock. Is it time to stop talking about rates? Instead cite the metrics for container lines and for supply chains? Rethink a new reality of increasing disruption? ...
Median-Income Americans Can Afford Only Modest Homes
This chart shows the = home price an American household on a median income can afford. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/1bNlhKyjp5