Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
How China Is Betting Cheap AI Will Get the World Hooked on Its Tech
China is accelerating a strategy to flood the market with low‑cost AI tools, aiming to make its platforms indispensable worldwide. ByteDance’s Seedance 2.0, a text‑to‑video generator, exemplifies this push, while Chinese labs have been accused of harvesting OpenAI‑Claude responses through fake accounts to improve their models. Government policy targets AI supremacy by 2030, framing cheap AI as an engine for economic growth and soft power. The approach threatens existing Western dominance and raises concerns over censorship and data security.
US Chipmakers Turn to Sunrise Metals Amid Scandium Shortage
U.S. semiconductor manufacturers are feeling the pinch from Chinese restrictions on scandium exports, @Reuters reports, underscoring the importance of @SunriseMetals’ Syerston Scandium Project as an essential supplier to key U.S. industries. “U.S. chipmakers have experienced delays in receiving new scandium export licenses from...
OEMs Monitor Shifting Tariff Landscape
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s broad “reciprocal” tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, but Section 232 duties on medium‑ and heavy‑duty trucks and key components remain untouched. Within days, President Trump announced a new...
Shelter‑driven Inflation Easing as Vacancies Rise, Wages Slow
Fed doves have happy tears, since over 40% of CPI inflation is due to shelter and wage growth is slowing down. Rising rental vacancies mean it's unlikely to see breakaway inflation again. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #mortgagerates #inflation #economics #realestate #chartdaddy
Terraform Lawsuit Exposes Hidden ETF Conflicts of Interest
Below is the AI-assisted summary of today's Spaces discussion on Terraform's lawsuit against Jane Street and the wider questions it invites about the murky behind-the-scenes mechanics of how ETFs function. It also touches on the wider conflicts of interest that...
To Deliver Speed to Exporters Customs Rules Must Be Recast: Revenue Secretary Arvind Shrivastava
Revenue Secretary Arvind Shrivastava urged a fundamental recasting of India’s customs rules to deliver speed and certainty for exporters. He highlighted that expanding trade volumes, deeper global value‑chain integration, and a booming digital commerce ecosystem demand more efficient, transparent procedures....
Shadow Partners: China’s Collaboration with Terrorist Groups to Plunder Venezuela’s Strategic Minerals (Dialogo Americas – February 24, 2026)
Investigative reporting reveals that Chinese firms are profiting from the illicit extraction of Venezuela’s “black sands” – coltan, niobium and tin – by partnering with armed groups. The minerals travel via river and land routes into Colombia, where fraudulent paperwork...
Balancing Rates Drives Predictable Credit Cycles
In order to have successful capital markets, you see the same things happen again and again. Since one man’s debts are another man’s assets, you have to keep interest rates not so high that they crush the debtor, without having them...
RANKED: Top 10 Gold Mining Companies of 2025
Gold’s 2025 rally pushed bullion over 40% higher, its strongest annual gain since 1979, and sent the VanEck Gold Miners ETF soaring 155%. The surge propelled the world’s largest gold miners into record valuations, with Newmont and Agnico Eagle topping...
MP Materials to Build New $1.25B Magnet Plant in Texas
MP Materials announced a $1.25 billion investment to build a 120‑acre rare‑earth magnet campus in Northlake, Texas, under its “10X” program and a public‑private partnership with the U.S. Department of War. The facility will add roughly 10,000 metric tons of NdFeB magnet...
The Global Questions Series - Number 27: The Butterfly Effect
The Global Questions Series explores the Butterfly Effect, showing how tiny diplomatic signals or policy tweaks can cascade into major geopolitical outcomes. It explains that initial conditions—power balances, leadership psychology, and economic interdependence—shape the trajectory of international systems. By contrasting...
US‑Iran Tensions Push Gold, Oil up; Stocks
Since the US session has opened : Gold : higher Oil : Higher Vix : Higher Indices : Lower Talks between Iranian & US officials are not going that well so far & markets are clearly reacting to that. I am short on SPX (small risk...
India's Gen X Pegged to Consume $500 Billion Worth of Goods, Services by FY30: RedSeer
India’s Generation X is projected to spend over $500 billion on goods and services by FY 30, according to RedSeer. The cohort’s spending will be led by preventive healthcare ($73 billion, 17% CAGR) and nutraceuticals ($20 billion, 25% CAGR). Premiumisation will also drive growth in...
Cass, Caspian Partner to Tackle Tariff Costs
Cass Information Systems announced a partnership with AI‑enabled tariff specialist Caspian to embed advanced customs audit and refund capabilities into its freight‑payment platform. The integration adds AI‑driven HTS modeling, detailed audit functions, and support for post‑summary corrections, protests, and duty‑drawback...
Welcome Words
Bruegel and the India International Centre hosted a multi‑day forum in Brussels to dissect the newly signed EU‑India Free Trade Agreement and its broader strategic implications. Sessions covered global challenges such as climate change, AI governance, and shifting trade dynamics,...
Milei’s Economy: From Surf the Wave to Kick the Can
Javier Milei’s liberal‑market agenda has sparked a sharp divide in Argentina, with early macro data showing a modest rebound while safety‑net programs crumble for the poor. Supporters hail the reforms as a break from historic boom‑bust cycles, whereas critics warn...
India's Energy Demand to Surpass US by 2040s and China by 2060s, Report Reveals
Shell India’s new scenarios sketch projects that India’s total energy demand will outpace the United States in the 2040s and overtake China by the 2060s, driven by rapid economic and population growth. The report shows the fossil‑fuel share in the...
Rotterdam Congestion Limits Benefit of Second-Half Surge in Imports
The Port of Rotterdam handled 14.2 million TEUs in 2025, marking a 3.1 % increase driven by a strong second‑half surge in Asian imports and expanding trade with North America. Despite this growth, persistent congestion and a carrier‑alliance restructuring forced a notable...
After Hapag-Zim Deal, Premier Alliance May Be Next in the Spotlight
The Hapag‑Lloyd acquisition of Zim adds roughly 2.8 million TEUs to the carrier, cementing its position among the world’s largest shippers. Meanwhile, the Premier Alliance—Ocean Network Express, HMM and Yang Ming—has amassed just over 4.8 million TEUs of existing and ordered capacity. The...
From Fed Failures to Inflation and Stablecoins: America’s Trust Is Cracking
The new book *Avoid Fiscal & Economic Disaster with Ethics, Economics, and Excellence* by former Fed official Bill Bergman and retired Air Force Lt. Col. Larry Feltes warns that America’s greatest vulnerability is a collapsing trust in its institutions. They...
World Briefs | Russia Says Sending British Troops to Ukraine Would Prolong the War, Not End It
Russia’s foreign ministry warned that deploying British troops to Ukraine would lengthen the war, countering the UK defence minister’s pledge to send forces after a cease‑fire. In Europe, ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated she will serve her full term to 2027,...
India, Israel FTA: Next Round of Talks in May
India and Israel will reconvene for the next round of free‑trade agreement negotiations in May 2026, following a constructive first round held during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit. The initial talks covered goods, services, digital trade, rules of origin,...
Government Panel Said to Review Future of Key GM Food Crop
India’s ministerial panel will examine field trials of a genetically modified rapeseed (mustard) variety, a step that could reshape the country’s cautious stance on GM food crops. The review comes as the Supreme Court prepares to revisit a pending case...
TSMC Fuels Taiwan's $70B Quarterly Surplus, 33% GDP
A day that was a long time coming -- TSMC's dominance of chip manufacturing led Taiwan to post a $70b quarterly current account surplus in q4. That is $280b annualized, or a surplus of ~ 33% of GDP Never...
AI-Driven Bottlenecks Threaten Prices, Smartphone Market to Drop 13%
The ai advances are real, but they imply some very unpleasant bottlenecks for a bunch of industries, and risk stoking prices in a variety of goods. Tariffs arent the only source of short run inflation risk
Why Chima Came Up Short in Nuclear Exports
China dominates domestically with 60 reactors and a growing pipeline, yet its export push for the 1,100 MW Hualong One and 1,400 MW CAP1400 has stalled. Only three Hualong One units have been built abroad, all in Pakistan, while no CAP1400 deals...
US Tariff Cut Could Shift China Supply Chains
Lower tariff by US on Chinese goods. What will it mean to import supply chains? And to logistics? Especially container lines? A lot? Or not? Given soft CNY. @Lingling_Wei
Canada’s FDI Hits 18‑year High at C$96.8B
Foreign direct investment into Canada jumped Q4, pushing yearly inflows to the highest level in 18 years. FDI totaled C$25.1 billion Oct-Dec, Statistics Canada reported, bringing the yearly sum to C$96.8 billion, the highest since 2007. https://t.co/yORmpTnnkH
Panama Growth Hinges on Cobre Panama Restart: Report
Panama’s economy expanded 4% in 2025, driven mainly by services, while manufacturing lagged at 0.46%. Business group SIP says reopening First Quantum’s Cobre Panama copper mine could lift GDP growth to 6% by 2027, versus a 3.7% slowdown if the mine...
Russian Oil Exports Up 6% Since Pre‑War
Is Russia exporting more oil now that it was before the Russo-Ukrainian war? Contrary to Western propaganda, the answer is YES. Russian crude export volumes are 6% above pre-invasion levels. SANCTIONS = NEVER WORK. https://t.co/pElmHdXmbQ
AI and Defense Spending Fuel $29 Trillion Debt Surge
In 2025, global debt surged by almost $29 TRILLION. Who are the culprits? According to the Institute of International Finance, they are AI AND DEFENSE SPENDING. https://t.co/R4ISyieJwn
How China’s Communist Party Seized Power in 1949
The Economist’s piece argues that the Chinese Communist Party’s 1949 takeover was driven more by Soviet military backing, systematic violence, and terror than by popular enthusiasm for communism. After World War II, Soviet arms and advisors transformed the CCP from a...
Integrating Sentiment Surveys and Trends Into Market Analysis
Latest episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast discusses market sentiment. @MWellerFX and I touch on sentiment surveys, market-based positioning and looser measures (eg headlines, search trends) - and how to integrate it into your market analysis: https://t.co/B06D4S71N8
Tariffs Shift Income, Yet Better Redistribution Tools Exist
New CEPR paper looks at the economics of tariffs. Says "while tariffs can redistribute income between domestic winners and losers from trade, more efficient redistributive instruments typically exist." Not sure I agree, but I did like this chart. https://t.co/PCMMEJY9dc https://t.co/PWFT8xomhM
Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Boosts Non‑Signatory Nations
Big win for STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY. After the Supreme Court ruled most of Trump's tariffs unlawful last Friday, the biggest “winners” were countries that NEVER SIGNED ANYTHING, like Brazil China and India. https://t.co/V1MJQK07Ip
New Bill’s Stimulus Set to Boost Spending Soon
The most stimulative portions of the Big Beautiful Bill are about to hit over the next couple of months and will be adding some juice to consumer spending over the next few months
Double Standards: Swiss Bank Targeted, Binance Pardoned
The hypocrisy of cutting off a Swiss Bank for facilitating payments to Iran and Russia, while the administration pardons CZ & family does business with Binance... https://t.co/p2PfBgrfDs
Adam Smith's Verdict on Today's Economy
March 9 will be the 250th anniversary of the publication of The Wealth of Nations. How would Adam Smith judge our economy today? We discuss it with @Jesse_Norman, author of Adam Smith, Father of Economics, and British MP. https://t.co/Y5fN0vHIkk
US Treasury OKs Venezuelan Oil Resale to Cuba, Details Murky
#CubaWatch🇨🇺: Yesterday, the US Treasury said it would authorize the resale of Venezuelan oil to Cuba. But it remains UNCLEAR how or will this work. THE DEVIL IS ALWAYS IN THE DETAILS. https://t.co/PLsrYShRGo
Gold Forecast Rises to $6K‑$7K, JPMorgan at $6.3K
On February 3rd, I revised my gold forecast from $6,000 to $6,000-7,000 per ounce. JP Morgan just revised its end-of-year gold price forecast to $6,300 per ounce. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/Hi3nzEv5w2
Importers Sold Claims for 20‑30¢,
Those importers who sold their tariff claims to Lutnick’s sons were only paid 20-30 cents on the dollar. Getting into the trade early? Are real importers concerned about getting refunds? Why? Dragging it out?
Thousands of Spanish Farmers Protest EU-Mercosur Trade Pact
Yesterday, THOUSANDS of farmers took to the streets of Madrid, Spain. They protested the EU-Mercosur Trade Pact. https://t.co/XqvZrcC16q
Gold Prices Set to Remain High for Two Years
The World Bank’s January 2026 Global Economic Prospects report on GOLD PRICES: "Strong investor demand, continued central bank purchases, and safe-haven inflows...are expected to sustain markedly high gold prices over the next two years..." BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/fGfk9ZNBcn
Policy Impact Seen Key in Youth Unemployment Surge
A mix of views around whether the recent rise in unemployment was structural or cyclical, there was greater agreement around the role of policies in the rise in young NEETs and youth unemployment: 47% of panel agreed that this was...
China's Duties Keep US Soybeans Off Its Market
US farmers and soybeans exporters not to get more China business? China duty still exists. Supply chains. Maritime.
EU Leaders Emphasize Energy Security and Affordable Power
Delighted to have a comprehensive discussion with @EUCouncil President António Costa @eucopresident in Brussels on global energy markets & European energy security – with a focus on the competitiveness of European industry & the importance of electricity affordability https://t.co/ixYMCcBHPY
Indonesia Likely to Miss US Farm Import Commitments
"Indonesia may struggle to deliver on new US farm import promises, traders say" 😲 https://t.co/EJEVp0S8sc
USDA Confirms 178k‑ton
USDA confirms the sale of 178,000 tons of U.S. corn for delivery to Japan. 154kt is for 2026/27 and 24kt is for 2027/28.
Inflation Halved Dollar Value—Invest in Real Assets
Your dollar lost 53% of its purchasing power over the past 30 years. That’s not an anomaly. That’s the system. Inflation isn’t just a number - it’s a silent thief. Invest in real assets, or watch your money evaporate. https://t.co/vTylWHpPhj
US Export Sales Slump, Wheat Outsells Expectations
🇺🇸U.S. export sales were pretty dismal across the board last week. 107kt new crop wheat was sold in the week, which was more than expected. https://t.co/Jk2c7Ibkg5