Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Sanctions, Seizures, and the Limits of Maritime Visibility
In late 2025 and early 2026 the U.S. Coast Guard and allied forces seized three oil tankers—M/T Skipper, M/T Centuries and Bella 1—after months of multi‑source intelligence proved they were moving sanctioned cargo. The operation underscores a new enforcement paradigm: governments now have abundant satellite and AIS data, but must transform detections into legally admissible evidence. Sanctions designations exploded in 2025, with over 1,400 vessels listed, yet the gap between “flagged” and “actionable” remains the chief bottleneck. Attribution, not detection, is the decisive factor for future maritime interdictions.
The Druzhba Pipeline: Europe’s Soviet-Era Oil Artery in the Crossfire of War and Sanctions
On 27 January 2026 a Russian Shahed drone struck Ukraine’s Brody pumping station, shutting the Druzhba pipeline’s southern branch that supplies Russian Urals crude to Hungary and Slovakia. The outage, now in its 27th day, has cut 60‑70 % of feedstock for MOL...
Cheap Chinese EVs: Attractive Until Companies Collapse
Cheap Chinese EVs are boon, until the company goes bust. "Neta Auto’s parent company filed for bankruptcy last year after failing to pay wages, stranding customers in Thailand without after-sales support. Singulato, Aiways, Byton, and Levdeo have all shut down." https://restofworld.org/2026/china-ev-exports-competition-price/
Wieslander Published in Royal Swedish Academy of War Sciences
Anna Wieslander, Director for Northern Europe, published an analysis in the Royal Swedish Academy of War Sciences critiquing the U.S. National Security Strategy released by the Trump administration in November 2025. She argues the strategy leaves Europe squeezed between an...
Emerging Markets Still Offer Cheap Value Opportunities
Emerging markets portfolio manager Juan Torres on: * Where the Real Emerging Markets Value Is * If US Stocks Fall, What Happens to Emerging Markets? * Should You Hedge Emerging Markets Currency Risk? * Is Buying the Dip Still Smart? * Emerging Markets Outlook: Cheap or...
The Used Truck Market Signals a Turn
The used‑truck market, long viewed as a real‑time barometer for freight health, is showing signs of recovery as large fleets begin to replace aging equipment. Spot rates have risen and diesel prices have fallen, easing the scarcity that has constrained...
Supreme Court Rules Trump Tariffs Illegal, Congress Holds Tax Power
Trump's IEEPA tariffs are illegal, as per the SC, and he's going to have to work with Congress and subject to the law now to sustain the tariff regime in various other ways. Or go back to court. China and...
Chad Closes Border with Sudan After Clashes Kill Five Soldiers
Chad shut its eastern border with Sudan after weekend clashes killed five Chadian soldiers and three civilians in the border town of Tine. The fighting involved Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces and militia loyal to Khartoum, reflecting the spill‑over of Sudan’s...
AI May Cut Taxable Income, Complicate Deficit Outlook
#NABE2026 AI and the federal deficits - Wendy Eldeberg formerly of CBO and now Brookings notes that AI could diminish taxable incomes? Reality nuanced due to taxes on workers could diminish. 🤯 AI boom could create a painful labor market...
Why Japan Must Help Counter China’s Presence in the Pacific
The article argues that Japan must step up its role in Micronesia to help counter China’s expanding footprint across the Western Pacific. The United States relies on COFA agreements that provide billions in aid and unrestricted base access, yet implementation...
Lebanon Gold Sale Mooted to End Financial Crisis
Lebanese officials are debating selling or leasing part of the country’s 280‑ton gold reserves, now worth roughly $45 billion after a 70 % price surge. The gold, the largest Middle‑East reserve after Saudi Arabia, could fund a financial‑gap law essential for an...
Core PCE Inflation Surges: Over Half Exceed 3%
There are 178 components to core PCE and 48% of them saw YoY inflation >3%. This was 42% a year ago. We continue to think inflation will run closer to 3% than 2% and we do have a little bit of...
Startups Creating Fewer Jobs as UK Struggles with Unemployment
UK unemployment rose to 5.2% in late 2025, the highest in five years, while startup formation hit a two‑year peak. Despite the boom, new ventures are creating only 2.7 jobs on average, and 58% of founders say AI adoption is...
The Benefits of Leveraging a Canadian Warehouse or 3PL for American Companies with Canadian Orders
U.S. companies with regular Canadian orders are re‑evaluating fulfillment strategies as border delays, rising transportation costs, and recent tariff changes erode the efficiency of U.S‑centric models. Positioning inventory in Canada—either via owned warehouses or third‑party logistics providers—removes the final customs...
Glasgow Prestwick Showcases Cool Chain Capability to India
Glasgow Prestwick Airport showcased its upgraded cool‑chain infrastructure to India’s Consul General, Siddharth Malik, as part of a push to capture a larger slice of post‑Brexit UK‑India trade. The visit highlighted the airport’s integrated, in‑house cargo model, bonded warehouse space...
North Dakota Beats Venezuela; Venezuelan Oil Too Costly
#NABE2026 Dan Yergin Vice Chairman of S&P500 expert on energy market. N Dakota produces more oil than Venezuela. We have to question reserves in VZ - over half requires $70-$80 per barrel to produce. Too expensive. Skeptical about how...
Trump Pegs New Tariffs to a Payments Crisis Experts Doubt
President Donald Trump invoked Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act to impose a 15% tariff on a broad range of imports, framing it as a response to a purported balance‑of‑payments crisis. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the duties as a...
China, ASEAN, and Beyond: The UK Strategy for the Indo-Pacific
The United Kingdom has unveiled a comprehensive Indo‑Pacific strategy that ties Euro‑Atlantic security to a free and open Indo‑Pacific, emphasizing flexible, values‑based partnerships. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s recent China visit secured visa‑free travel for UK citizens and greater market access for...
How Washington and Moscow Drove the EU’s Indo-Pacific Pivot
The European Union is accelerating its engagement with the Indo‑Pacific, highlighted by high‑level visits to India and new free‑trade agreements with Indonesia and a pending deal with India. This pivot reflects two structural shifts: a push for strategic autonomy away...
Economic Environment Remains Leading Emerging Risk in Q4’25, Reports Gartner
Gartner’s Q4 2025 Emerging Risk Report, based on a survey of 367 senior risk executives, identified a low‑growth economic environment as the top emerging risk for the second quarter in a row. Respondents linked the concern to financial instability, persistent trade...
When Growth Outpaces Accountability: Political Volatility in the Philippines
The Philippines’ political landscape is defined by sharp swings in civil liberties that correspond to changes in presidential leadership rather than formal rule changes. Family‑based dynastic networks and clientelistic coalitions amplify these shifts, producing periods of illiberal governance under leaders...
Both Gold, Platinum Prices Consolidating in High Ranges
Gold prices have entered a consolidation phase, closing the week of Feb 20 at $5,067 per ounce, while a stronger dollar presents short‑term pressure. Ghana’s gold output rose to 187 t in 2023, positioning it as Africa’s top producer and potentially the...
Neutral Rate Near 3% as Forecast‑Based Policy Debate Rises
Need to know where we are relative forecast-based policy setting. Neutral rate est at what it was a little less than 3%. The push to make policy on forecasts is something the administration’s nominee to replace Chair Powell has argued....
Waller Doubts AI Fuels Current Productivity Surge
Waller on Monday pushes back on the idea that the ongoing productivity boom is currently being driven by AI. "A.I. at some point will clearly kick in down the road, but I don't think it's going to be in the...
Tanker Carrying Russian Crude Heads for Cuba as US Pressure Grows
A Hong Kong‑flagged tanker loaded with Russian diesel used offshore ship‑to‑ship transfers near Cyprus and repeatedly altered its AIS data to conceal a planned delivery to Cuba. The vessel’s draft increase and route changes suggest deliberate evasion of U.S. sanctions that...
Walller Signals Potential Rate‑Cut Pause Amid Improving Data
Potential pivot by @federalreserve Gov Chris Walller - IF the next retail sales & labor data continue to show signs of further improvement, like we saw in Jan, then would support a pause in rate cuts after dissenting in Jan....
Tungsten Crunch Can Be Fixed Before Prices Spike Further: BMO
BMO Global Commodities Research warns that tungsten prices have surged fivefold in the past year as chronic under‑investment and tightening Chinese supply create a looming shortage. With China providing about 75% of global output, ore‑grade declines, environmental limits and export...
Fed Waller, Durable Goods Data Set Up Market Swing
🚨 Morning Market Rundown – Feb 23, 2026 🚨 🧠 Macro Headline: Markets digest Fed Waller + key U.S. data with durable goods and factory orders in focus. Growth vs slowdown narrative still in play. 📅 Economic Events: • 0800 – Fed’s Waller speaks •...
Tariff Shifts Offer Rule‑of‑law Gains, Little Immediate Relief
The economic impact of tariff changes. Me on @cnni with @jimsciutto - a bit of good news on rule of law, not much immediate relief. See @PIIE for more analysis https://t.co/bbkP6I3455
Zim Takeover Raises Questions for Transpac Shippers – and MSC
Hapag‑Lloyd’s pending acquisition of Zim will reshape the Asia‑US east‑coast trade, especially the five vessel‑sharing services currently run with MSC. The carrier can either keep Zim’s premium, time‑sensitive strings separate or fold them into the Gemini alliance, each option raising...
Base Case Unlikely
Helpful thought-experiment, but undersells: 1) competition & demand elasticity for cheaper code, 2) how fast monetary & fiscal pol move at 10% U3, & 3) wealth effects/reinvestment bolstering productivity & offsetting wage loss. Tail risk yes. Base case no. https://t.co/BDbOcr4sHF
China Swapped US Treasuries for Commodities via BRI
How China largely sold out of their net UST exposure yrs ago AND cornered critical minerals without ever impacting UST or commodity markets: Lend USDs along Belt & Road (BRI), repayable in either USD, CNY, or physical commodities This amounted to swapping...
Dollar's Reserve Role Extends to Growing Quasi‑Reserves
Indeed; an important point -- tho the dollar's reserve currency role is often taken to mean its role in private payments not just in official reserves. More importantly, there is a lot quasi-reserves floating around now --...
December PCE Inflation Hits 2.9%, Exceeding Fed Target
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose from 2.8%/yr in November to 2.9%/yr in December. That’s ABOVE the FED’s inflation target of 2%/yr. INFLATION = THE GENIE THE FED JUST CAN'T PUT BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/bTd3rr7JXl
Crypto May Dip Amid Multiple Market Pressures This Week
POLL: Busy week 📉 Markets React to Trump Tariff threats 🛍️February Consumer Confidence data 🤖Nvidia Earnings report 📊Jobless Claims data 💸January PPI Inflation data 👉Will crypto see new lows this week? $BTC $SOL $ETH $XRP
Respect 5 PM Friday News Drops for Safer Investing
It is a prudent investment decision to respect 5pm Friday news drops given recent precedents. https://t.co/phlsQarN5X
Trump Tariffs Spur Urgent 12‑Month Market Diversification
Another threat from Trump on tariffs. How much market diversification can countries do? Now? In the next 12 months? And supply chains and logistics?
Majority of Americans View Trump’s Tariffs as Harmful
Americans go negative on Trump's tariffs. A majority of U.S. adults say that the impact of tariffs on their families will be negative. https://t.co/eOn1TQa7Bi
Chile's Chicago Boy Reforms Outpace Argentina's Peso Woes
Chile basks in the afterglow of the free-market reforms put in place by Pinochet’s Chicago Boys (1973–1990). Argentina struggles under the weight of the Argentine peso. CHILE LEAVES ARGENTINA IN THE DUST. https://t.co/UyNgQY2kIL
EU Halts US Trade Deal, Shifts Focus to Asia
EU stops trade deal with the US. What is next for the EU, India, and China and trade deals with the US? And for supply chains and logistics?
DXY Net Longs Flip Back to Positive Territory
#DXY net longs make it to net longs territory for now https://t.co/HWXbhMOOqi #forex $FXE $UUP https://t.co/Emg2FxVwkD
Fed's “Open Market” Is Actually Managed, Not Open
why is it called the federal open market committee when said market is very clearly managed and a closed system
AI Funding Could Sideline Manufacturing and Job Growth
Fed’s Waller: Spending on AI. That capital could go to manufacturing and upstream supply chain fe-risking and diversification. Reshore? Onshore? And the economy and jobs?
USDA Confirms 125,000‑Ton U.S. Corn Sale to Colombia
USDA confirms the sale of 125,000 metric tons of U.S. corn for delivery to Colombia in 2025/26.
Tariffs Shift U.S. Imports, Not Reduce Deficit
As a result of Trump's tariffs, Americans bought less from China, but more from other countries around the world — Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand. TARIFFS DON'T CLOSE TRADE DEFICITS. THEY JUST RE-SHUFFLE THE SOURCES OF IMPORTS. https://t.co/CFIWJu9be2
Tariff Refunds Boost Retailer Profits, Not Consumer Refunds
If retailers raised prices during tariffs, that doesn’t create a liability to each customer—it creates profit (or covers costs). So if or when tariff refunds arrive, the default outcome is: firms recoup, shoppers don’t. Bottom line: You aren't getting a penny...
Trump's Unpredictable Tariffs Threaten Transpacific Supply Chains
Trump tariff turmoil clouds transpacific contracting season. The bigger question is Trump’s unpredictability for imports and revenue. Goes beyond the 15% and what he may do next? That supply chain risk is also logistics risk. https://t.co/mQLO4g8ITo
Warsh Chairmanship Could Push Mortgage Rates Near Zero
How low can mortgage rates go with tariff ruling and Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair? https://t.co/eEzHs3zcYh
USD Stays Flat Post‑SCOTUS, Defying Tariff‑Driven Drops
Big moves in currencies are made one small move at a time. The fact that USD didn't rally substantially after the SCOTUS decision is remarkable. After all, it fell a lot when reciprocal tariffs hit, so the fact that it...
Importers Brace for Potential 15%+ Tariff Surge
Trump. Is he amping up for more than 15% global tariffs? With his unpredictability, what do importer supply chains do now?