Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Unicapital Trims PSEi Outlook to 6,800 Amid Corruption Scandal, Policy Risks but Sees 2026 Recovery
Unicapital Securities cut its PSEi year‑end target to 6,800, down from 7,100, after re‑rating the index at a 10.5‑times price‑to‑earnings multiple. The downgrade reflects a lingering corruption scandal that has stalled government infrastructure projects and heightened policy uncertainty, including a likely pause in Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas rate cuts. Despite these headwinds, the firm projects a turnaround beginning in 2026, driven by renewed public‑infrastructure spending and stronger fiscal support. Unicapital now expects GDP to rebound to 5.2% that year, underpinning a more optimistic medium‑term outlook.
India Overhauls GDP Data to Improve Accuracy, Official Says
India will revamp its real‑GDP calculation by adopting a double‑deflation approach that blends 500‑600 price items from the consumer‑price index and the wholesale‑price index, replacing the earlier 180‑item basket. The new methodology, slated for release on 27 February with a...
Japan Conveys Concerns to US over Trade Terms in New 150-Day Tariffs
Japan’s economy minister Ryosei Akazawa asked U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to ensure Japan is not treated less favorably under the new 150‑day tariff regime that replaces the invalidated reciprocal levies. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s global...
Bangladesh Seeks to Keep Least Developed Status Amid Economic Stress
Bangladesh’s new government has formally asked the United Nations to delay its graduation from least‑developed country (LDC) status. The request cites mounting macroeconomic stress, trade uncertainty and institutional weaknesses. Deferring graduation would preserve preferential trade benefits that shield Bangladeshi exports...
Trump’s 10% Global Tariffs Take Effect After Supreme Court Ruling; 15% Hike Under Consideration
President Donald Trump enacted a 10% global tariff on Tuesday, following a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated his earlier sweeping duties. The administration is preparing a formal order to lift the levy to 15%, though a timeline remains unclear. The...
China to Lead Global Outbound Growth by 2030
Chinese outbound travelers, the world’s third‑largest source of visitors and top spender in 2019, are forecast to recover to roughly 50% of pre‑pandemic volumes by 2027 and become the leading outbound market by 2030. Michael Shoory of Tourism Economics notes...
GRDC Update: Growth Seen in Asian Feedgrain Demand
Grains Australia CEO Richard Simonaitis told the GRDC Perth Update that bio‑fuel policies are reshaping Australian grain exports, with EU canola demand driving Western Australia’s highest‑value market. At the same time, feedgrain demand in Southeast Asia is accelerating faster than...
S&P 500 Records Worst 17‑year Start, US Rank 69th
🔴This is one of the WORST starts for the S&P 500 to the year in HISTORY: S&P 500 is lagging the rest of the world equities by 8 percentage points, the worst start to a year in at least 17 years. The...
India’s Refund Rollback Lands Exporters with a Bigger Bill
India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade has slashed RoDTEP export rebates by 50%, cutting both rates and value caps across all eligible categories. The move raises the effective cost of exporting, especially for price‑sensitive goods such as textiles and raw...
Stripe, PayPal Ventures Bet on India’s Xflow to Fix Cross-Border B2B Payments
Xflow, a Bengaluru‑based fintech, closed a $16.6 million Series A round led by General Catalyst with participation from Stripe and PayPal Ventures, valuing the company at $85 million post‑money. The startup now has over $32 million in total funding and processes roughly $1 billion in...
From Nausea to Relief, How Beauty Founders and Execs Are Reacting to the Supreme Court’s Tariff Decision
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled to block the Trump‑era tariffs on Chinese beauty products, ending weeks of uncertainty for the industry. Beauty founders and executives, who had been bracing for higher import costs, described the decision as a “relief” after...
Cautious Holiday Spending Softens Typical January Credit Card Delinquency Spike: Equifax Canada
Equifax Canada’s Q4 2025 credit report shows total consumer debt rose to $2.65 trillion, up 3.1% year‑over‑year, driven by higher mortgage balances and a 4.5% jump in non‑mortgage debt. Non‑mortgage delinquency peaked at 1.73%, with the 26‑35 age group posting the highest...
The Looming Taiwan Chip Disaster That Silicon Valley Has Long Ignored
China’s growing threat to seize Taiwan has reignited U.S. fears over semiconductor supply chains. Taiwan manufactures roughly 90% of the world’s high‑end chips, feeding Apple, AMD, Qualcomm and AI data centers. Despite billions in Biden‑era grants and Trump‑era tariff threats,...
Japan’s National Security Reckoning
Japan is overhauling its national security strategy as U.S. “America First” policies erode traditional defense guarantees. Rising Chinese assertiveness, the spillover of the Ukraine war, and rapid advances in drone and AI warfare have forced Tokyo to prioritize strategic autonomy....
Jemmia Diamond Hosts Vietnam UAE Trade Dialogue with Ambassador
On February 9, Jemmia Joint Stock Company welcomed UAE Ambassador Dr. Bader Almatrooshi to its Ho Chi Minh City headquarters for a Vietnam‑UAE trade dialogue. The session gathered Vietnamese firms from real estate, agriculture, robotics, renewable energy and other sectors to discuss cooperation...
India Aims to Raise $19.7 Billion From IPOs of State-Run Firms by 2030
India plans to raise 1.79 trillion rupees (about $19.7 billion) by selling stakes in state‑run firms through IPOs by the 2029/30 fiscal year. The effort is part of a broader $183.7 billion asset‑monetisation drive announced by NITI Aayog, following an earlier phase that fell...
Japan Mulls Revising Liquidity-Support JGB Auctions to Ease Market Pressure - Report
Japan's Ministry of Finance is weighing changes to its liquidity‑enhancement auction framework for government bonds, aiming to ease supply pressure on the super‑long end of the curve. From April, the mid‑term bucket could be narrowed from a 5‑15.5‑year range to...
Swiss Franc to Stay Favourable Amid Safe Haven Allure
The Swiss franc is consolidating its role as the premier safe‑haven currency, with EUR/CHF breaking below the 0.92 support level early this year. Analysts from RBC, Morgan Stanley and Credit Agricole argue that ongoing geopolitical tensions and weak economic data...
China’s New Export: Aircraft Debt
China’s state‑owned COMAC is exporting its C909 and C919 aircraft alongside tailored financing, leasing and equity deals, turning planes into long‑term financial levers. The most visible case is Laos, where COMAC holds a 49% stake in Lao Airlines after a lease‑to‑equity...
Ontario Mining at a Moment of Consequence: Turning Policy Commitments Into Global Leadership – by Priya Tandon (Canadian Mining Journal...
Ontario’s mining sector faces heightened global competition as nations vie for critical minerals essential to clean energy and technology. The province’s policy framework emphasizes certainty, efficiency, and reliability to lure investment. Industry leaders argue that turning policy commitments into concrete...
Raising Thailand’s Productivity Through Regulatory Reform
Thailand’s labour productivity has stalled, averaging just 2.1% growth from 2015 to 2023, down from 3.7% in the 1990s‑2010 period. OECD product‑market regulation (PMR) scores rank the country among the most restrictive economies, with a 2.4 rating – the fourth...
What I Told Israeli Lawmakers About Reviving Regional Integration
Five and a half years after the Abraham Accords, U.S. and Israeli officials argue that regional integration remains viable despite the Gaza war and a Saudi‑UAE rift. The article stresses that advancing phase two of Trump’s Gaza reconstruction plan—contingent on...
Apple to Shift some Mac Mini Production to Houston From Asia, WSJ Reports
Apple announced it will begin assembling a portion of its Mac Mini desktop computers at Foxconn’s new plant in north Houston later this year, while maintaining Asian production lines. The move aligns with the company’s broader $600 billion U.S. investment commitment...
USD/CNY Drops to 2½-Year Low as Onshore Yuan Surges
The on‑shore yuan surged to a 2½‑year high as USD/CNY slipped below 6.90, reaching 6.8954. The People’s Bank of China posted a slightly firmer daily midpoint of 6.9414 and reduced the usual damping in the fixing process. This narrower gap...
Trump's Tariff Rate Uncertain: 10% Formal, 15% Unconfirmed
Trump's 10% global tariff was formalized in a proclamation from Friday and goes into effect at midnight tonight. He later said he would raise it to 15% but with three hours to go, is yet to do anything formal to...
China’s Lunar New Year Spending Modestly up Amid Stimulus
SCMP: "Consumer spending during China’s Lunar New Year rose modestly this year, according to early official data, as authorities extended the holiday and stepped up stimulus measures to support domestic demand." https://t.co/d5LzFaVd4V via @scmpnews
Trump’s ‘Pro-Israel’ Policies Are Israel’s Biggest Liability
Donald Trump’s tenure produced headline‑grabbing pro‑Israel actions, including the Abraham Accords, the Jerusalem embassy move, and the killing of Qasem Soleimani, which were celebrated as diplomatic victories. Yet the article argues that his maximalist, transaction‑focused style has created strategic liabilities for...
Universal Tariff Beats Currency Devaluation for Trade Balance
The irony is that to reduce trade imbalances, tariffs should mostly substitute for currency devaluation, in which case a single, universal tariff is likely to be far more effective than a hodgepodge of bilateral and sectoral tariffs. https://t.co/QVpoGNLwuH
China May Pause Reserve Dedollarization if US Eases Taiwan Stance
So no more dedollarization of China's formal reserves if the US softens its Taiwan policy? Tis an option that China is at least considering per Lingling Wei and the WSJ 1/ https://t.co/365Y8wHJV4
Piyush Goyal Virtually Interacts with Canada Minister Maninder Sidhu, Discusses Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement
Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal held a virtual meeting with Canada’s International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu to revive the stalled India‑Canada Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). The dialogue coincides with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s upcoming visit to India and...
Equal Tariffs, but China Parity May Backfire
Memo to self: file under unintended consequences. ✍️ @ft “The tariff structure puts all countries on an equal footing. . 💥”But parity with China is not necessarily good news.” For other countries 🎩📈 @SimonEvenett @IMD_Bschool https://t.co/OCibAcj1Ms
Countries Subsidize Exports, Cutting Domestic Consumption to Offset US Tariffs
1/4 As this WSJ article points out, countries are keeping their exports competitive in the face of US tariffs by increasingly subsidizing them, with the subsidies ultimately being paid for in the form of suppressed consumption. https://t.co/phOREv8G8z
PBOC Sets USD/ CNY Reference Rate for Today at 6.9414 (Vs. Estimate at 6.9249)
The People’s Bank of China set today’s USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9414, slightly above the 6.9249 market estimate. The central bank maintains a +/-2% trading band around this midpoint, allowing modest yuan fluctuations. In parallel, the PBOC injected 526 billion yuan...
India Skips US Deal, Outpaces Japan in Trade
PM Takaichi sticks with Japan's one-sided trade agreement with the US. India’s PM Modi has wisely not signed a trade agreement with Uncle Sam. INDIA LEAVES JAPAN IN THE DUST. https://t.co/aWVetL1q0z
China’s Top Solar Firms Slash One‑third Staff Amid Losses
1/7 Reuters: "China's biggest solar firms shed nearly one-third of their workforces last year, company filings show, as one of the industries hand-picked by Beijing to drive economic growth grapples with falling prices and steep losses." https://t.co/BDS9UWJaXO
People's Bank of China Sets 1 and 5 Year Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) Unchanged
China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, announced that both the 1‑year and 5‑year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) remain unchanged for the ninth consecutive month. The 1‑year LPR held at 3.45% while the 5‑year LPR stayed at 4.20%, reflecting...
Accelerating Trade Imbalances Will Deepen Global Tensions
Good PIIE paper by Tamim Bayoumi and Joseph E. Gagnon on the consequences of accelerating trade imbalances. They warn that trade tensions are likely to get worse, something I have been saying for years and continue to say. I don't...
World Pivots to India as US Tariffs Alienate Allies
#IndiaWatch 🇮🇳: At the margin, the world is making a Pivot away towards India. TRUMP’S TARIFFS = MAKING LOTS OF US ENEMIES. https://t.co/3H8maAoa62
Bangladesh’s Food Grain Imports Surge
Bangladesh’s food‑grain imports surged 42 percent in the first half of the 2025‑26 marketing year, reaching 4.2 million tonnes, driven primarily by a sharp rise in wheat purchases. Private‑sector wheat imports jumped 31 percent while government imports fell, and rice imports exploded 380 percent,...
China Buys FX as Yuan Rises to Curb Appreciation
A little more complicated -- China consistently buys more fx when the CNY is appreciating (whether for structural or cyclical reasons). Exports start converting, and controlling the pace of appreciation takes intervention. Subtle point, but clear in the data
Bloomberg's Oil Glut Narrative Shows They're Six Months Late
Bloomberg is still arguing “oil glut” & saying the correlation between geopolitics in the Middle East & oil prices is "broken" How can @bbgoriginals be 6 months behind the curve & still be in the news business? #Oil #EnergyMarkets #Geopolitics #Commodities...
Shadow Oil Fleet Stressed, Sanctions Spur Higher Prices
The shadow oil fleet isn’t gone — it’s under stress Seizures raise costs & strand barrels, but doing more against Russian & Iranian flows means higher oil prices & inflation https://t.co/P5EDN7PrRY #Oil #Sanctions #EnergySecurity #Russia #Iran #Geopolitics
Mexican Civil War Threatens US Supply Chains More than Tariffs
A Mexican civil war would be far more catastrophic to American supply chains than tariffs - Michael Vincent
Weighted Avg 2.3% Signals Bullish Breakout Over CBO
The probability weighted average of both @jasonfurman and the survey average is 2.3%*, i.e. solid breakout. That's bullish; CBO is at 1.8%. *(Assumes 5% for the >4% phase transition scenario. I figure probabilities of higher figures quickly fall to...
Japanese Builders Double Down on U.S. Housing Market
Japan’s big bet on the U.S. housing market got even bigger today Japanese builders are rapidly acquiring U.S. homebuilders—now Daiwa House is buying United Homes That's just 10 days after Japan-based Sumitomo Forestry said it's buying Tri Point Homes https://t.co/UnPOshRdS1
Trump Threatens Tariffs over Supreme Court Decision, Mocks Tariff Chief
Today, Trump issued a statement on Truth Social saying "any country that wants to play games with the ridiculous Supreme Court decision... will be met with a much higher tariff." THE TARIFF MAN HAS LOST IT. https://t.co/AA365cmzVQ
Section 122 Tariffs Reduced to 10% From 15%
Section 122 tariffs now being collected at 10%, not Trump's weekend 15%. Clearly, a well-oiled tariff machine here. 🤷🤷 https://t.co/5MjbcrZuXD https://t.co/jb72H2AZQ8
China’s $100B/Month FX Buying Blocks Dollar Diversification
Me, in the Financial Times -- On the surge in China's intervention, and the impossibility of diversifying away from dollar assets/ Treasuries when the state banks are buying $100b a month in FX 1/ https://t.co/Pc78czuld9
Germany Injects €1.3B Into Salzgitter Green Steel
After financial commitments fell through, the German government pours €1.3 BILLION into Salzgitter’s green steel project. GERMANY'S GREEN SECULAR RELIGION = KILLING THE GERMAN ECONOMY. https://t.co/gmESJ38qxH
Bessent: A Trader‑politician Unlike Typical Treasury Secret
Interesting on many levels. Bessent is much more of a trader (and yet also much more political) than most Treasury secretaries ... https://t.co/7m06uOU5eQ