Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Australia CPI Expected to Point to Sticky Inflation, Supporting Hawkish Stance
Australia’s January consumer price index is expected to rise 3.7% year‑over‑year, a slight dip from December’s 3.8%. The forecast includes a Trimmed Mean CPI of 3.3% YoY, unchanged from the prior month, highlighting persistent core inflation. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains cautious, with markets pricing about 39 basis points of tightening this year while keeping the cash rate at 3.85% for now. Sticky inflation and solid growth are likely to keep the Australian dollar on a bullish trajectory.
How the EU Could Unlock 22 Trillion Cubic Feet of Barents Gas
The European Union is reviewing its Arctic policy, and a tighter definition could unlock the Barents Sea’s estimated 22 trillion cubic feet of gas. Norway’s offshore fields could then supply 20‑30% of EU gas demand through 2050, offering a lower‑emission alternative...
AI‑Driven Revenue Drop Threatens Sovereign Bonds, Raises Capital Costs
This is an incredibly thought-provoking global macro piece from @infraa_. If the gov't revenue decline from AI disruption of white collar workers isn't counter-balanced by taxation from AI productivity, we could be tip-toeing into a potential Sovereign Bond Implosion....
Government Allows Export of 25 Lakh Tonnes of Wheat
The Indian government has approved a limited export of 25 lakh metric tonnes of wheat and an additional five lakh tonnes of wheat products, despite the overall export ban remaining in force. The decision, taken in January and notified by...
Young Bearing the Brunt of UK Tax and Wage Changes, Says BoE Economist
Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill warned that recent hikes in National Insurance contributions and the accelerated rise in the national living wage have hit young workers hardest. Youth unemployment rose to 16.1% in Q4 2025, the highest level...
US to Offer Passport Services in West Bank Settlement for First Time
The United States will provide on‑site passport services in the West Bank settlement of Efrat on Feb. 27, marking the first time American consular officials have operated inside an Israeli settlement in the occupied territory. The move targets tens of thousands...
Selling US Chips to China Fuels AI Competition
tough look for Jensen and @DavidSacks and everyone arguing to keeping the China market open to older US chips (myself included) The case against export controls was always: sell to China so theres no market for their own. But they're...
Did Negative Interest Rates Work ?
The article reviews evidence that central banks which pushed policy rates slightly below zero—most notably in the euro area, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark and Japan—generated additional economic stimulus without triggering major disruptions. Empirical observations show that corporate deposit and wholesale funding...
CSX CEO: Flat Industrial Results Holding Back Railroad Freight Growth
CSX Chief Executive Steve Angel told investors that flat industrial production worldwide is the primary reason railroad freight volumes have stagnated. He noted that China’s growth engine has faded, Europe never delivered growth, and emerging markets lack the scale to...
Expeditors Numbers Reflect Difficult Ocean Freight Market in 4Q
Expeditors International reported a weak fourth quarter 2025, with ocean freight tonnage down 6% year‑over‑year and revenue slipping 3% to $2.86 billion. Operating income fell 17% to $250.9 million and net income dropped to $200.7 million, while salaries and other expenses rose 6%....
Guest Contribution: “Understanding Bond-Stock Price Comovements”
The article examines how Treasury bond returns move together with U.S. stock returns, showing that comovement has shifted from positive in the 1980s to negative in the 2000s and back to positive after 2022. Using rolling 90‑day regressions on daily...
Med Gasoline Market Diverges From Northwest Europe
The Mediterranean gasoline market is diverging from northwest Europe as several key fluid catalytic cracker units undergo maintenance, notably Helleniq Energy’s Aspropyrgos refinery in Greece and Eni’s Milazzo refinery in Italy. With offshore capacity constrained, February‑March spreads have turned backwardated—a...
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Bullish Bias Builds Above 155.00 Support
USD/JPY rose to 155.70 on Tuesday, up 0.64% after hitting a daily high of 156.28. The move follows comments from Japan’s prime minister signaling caution on further BoJ rate hikes, which have kept yen pressure alive. Technically, the pair sits...
Yield Curve Shifts From 2023 Inversion to 2025 Flattening
Chart shows the shape and evolution of the yield curve (3-Month Treasury yields (blue) and 10-Year Treasury yields (red)) from Feb 2023 to Feb 2026. It's been a wild ride from the extreme inversion in 2023 to normalization beginning Q4 2025....
Japan’s Farm and Food Exports Hit New High As Trade Patterns Shift
Japan’s agricultural, forestry and fishery exports reached a record ¥1.7 trillion in 2025, up 12.8% year‑on‑year, marking the 13th consecutive record. Growth was driven by strong demand for scallops, green tea and sake, with the United States and China remaining the...
Poland's Ferrous Scrap Exports Fall; Ukraine Imports Hit Record
Poland’s ferrous scrap exports to non‑EU markets slipped 8.6% in 2025, falling to 1.204 million tonnes after three years of growth. Shipments to India, Pakistan and Morocco dropped sharply, while volumes to Turkey rose 2.4% and exports to the United States...
Investing Strategies Aligned with the Big Cycle
Last week, I shared a chapter from my 2021 book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order that details the classic signs to watch for as the world geopolitical order breaks down in a classic progression of events that I call...
US Insurers Remain Optimistic on Investment Conditions for 2026: Conning
U.S. insurers remain optimistic about 2026 investment conditions, with 76% of survey respondents seeing improving opportunities despite expectations of higher inflation, tighter liquidity and lower Fed rates. The optimism is driven by higher yields on high‑quality fixed‑income securities and attractive...
Motiva Announces US Group II Base Oil Posting Decrease
Motiva announced a $0.50 per US‑gallon reduction to its Group II, II+ and III base‑oil postings, effective 1 March. The cut could translate into contract price declines of 10‑15¢/USG for parties linked to Motiva’s postings or to basket indices, while blenders with...
The European Central Bank’s Next President May Decide the Fate of the Digital Euro
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde highlighted the digital euro as a core part of her legacy, noting its progress from research to a live policy effort. The project is now in a "preparation phase" with technical design and pilot...
Goolsbee Flags Stubborn Core Service Inflation, Questions AI Growth Boost
#NABE2026 Chicago Fed Pres Austan Goolsbee third day of policy meeting. More worried about the risks to inflation, especially the persistence of core service sector inflation, which shouldn’t be affected by tariffs. This is after stripping out shelter costs....
Tariffs Spike Costs, Crashing DTC ROAS
Your ad account looks fine: - ROAS is holding - CPMs are manageable - Conversions are flowing But your spreadsheet is screaming. As of February 2026, the average US tariff rate sits at 17% on all imports. For DTC brands...
UK to Remove Turkish HDG Quota Exemption
The UK Trade Remedies Authority (TRA) plans to strip Turkey of its developing‑economy exemption for hot‑dip galvanised (HDG) steel, moving Turkish shipments into the capped “other countries” quota. The move follows Tata Steel’s complaint that Turkish imports surged to 58,030 t...
Industrial Sector Hits 30‑year Valuation Peak Amid Optimism
S&P 500 Industrials’ forward P/E, at 26.5X, matches sector P/E in 2021, when earnings were impaired by the pandemic, and at 1.24X the index, is higher than at any point in the last 30 years. EV/Forward EBITDA, Price-to-Sales and Price-to-Book...
Tariffs Boost Steel Jobs, Undermine U.S. Manufacturing
"Trump’s Tariffs Are Adding Steel Mill Jobs, and Crushing American Factories" https://t.co/EdQKmnKPzv You guys will never believe this, but heavily taxing a vital manufacturing input isn't good for manufacturing. https://t.co/6IRvgAXzPH
Mexico’s Cartel Violence Could Hit Economy and Insurance Segment: AM Best
Cartel violence erupted in Mexico after the killing of leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, halting flights and disrupting tourism in Puerto Vallarta. Tourism, which contributes about 10% of Mexico’s GDP, faces short‑term setbacks and longer‑term perception risks. AM Best issued a negative...
EU Anticipates US Softening of Metals Tariffs Soon
EU sees the US easing impact of metals tariffs in the coming weeks https://t.co/qG2gkI6D64 via @AlbertoNardelli @europressos https://t.co/QmBgb5eFOv
Consumer Confidence Rises, Inflation Expectations Slip to 5.5%
GS: Consumer Confidence and Labor Differential Increase The survey’s measure of 12-month ahead inflation expectations edged down by 0.1pp to 5.5%. https://t.co/lrWMlf1pcR
Douglas Irwin on Tariffs in America and the Supreme Court Case
Supreme Court ruled on Feb 20, 2026 that the International Economic Emergency Powers Act does not give the president authority to impose tariffs. The decision directly challenges the wave of tariffs enacted by President Donald Trump during his second term,...
Venezuela Leads Global Inflation Surge, Followed by NK, Iran
#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 635.0%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 107.8%/yr 🇮🇷Iran— 79.0%/yr 🇱🇾Libya — 56.3%/yr 🇨🇺Cuba — 49.0%/yr https://t.co/22hHl94rWL
Internet Economy Outpaces Overall Growth, Becomes Primary Engine
Stripe’s annual letter is out: https://t.co/N0TpoPbs6T The biggest highlight is relatively consistent every year: the Internet economy is growing faster than the rest of the economy. This has compounded for enough years that it is essentially _the_ growth engine in places.
IMF Expects Godongwana to Maintain Budget Surplus Target of 1.5% of GDP
The IMF’s South Africa mission chief expects Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana to keep the primary budget surplus at 1.5% of GDP and to embed the necessary fiscal reforms in the 2026 budget. The Fund highlighted controlling the public‑sector wage bill,...
Germany's De‑risking From China Exposes Costly Dependencies
Germany is finding out that “de-risking” from China is painful when dependencies have previously been knowingly created. Chinese price advantages & deliberate dumping are hurting German cos. via @JamesAngelos @Jordyn_Dahl @POLITICOEurope https://t.co/g7oYgu9xEX
Macro Data Flaws, Bots Favor Bad News, Calendar Strategies
🔬 Research links: the problem with macro data, why bots love bad news, and how to use calendar-based strategies. https://t.co/gUmyuaWsPO chart: https://t.co/9NGWAEXTU1 https://t.co/QufnB6WSHu
Germany No Longer Trusts Russia?
Germany’s strategic relationship with Russia has unraveled since Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Trade collapsed, with imports from Russia falling from €36.4 billion in 2022 to €1.8 billion by 2024, while German aid to Kyiv topped €90 billion. Energy dependence vanished as Russian...
US Government Fails to Push Firms Toward Supply‑Chain Security
Great story in the New York Times highlighting the difficulties that the US government has faced in getting the world's most profitable companies to take supply chain security seriously, and reduce their exposure to a crisis in the Taiwan straights 1/...
Europe Must Block Chinese‑Made Cars From Flooding Market
Good points from Thorsten Brenner -- The "car bosses" are tempted to use their Chinese factories to supply the European market. Deindustrializing Europe isn't their concern. European policy makers need a policy framework that makes this impossible...
National Bank of Hungary Review: The Rate Cut Has Arrived, but What’s Next?
After 16 months of steady rates, the National Bank of Hungary cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% in February, aligning with broad market expectations. The central bank’s forward guidance remains data‑driven and open‑ended, prompting ING...
Pullbacks Signal Buying Chance Before 5% S&P Drop
“Markets are at a tactical–fundamental crossroads. Historically these conflicting signals precede >5% S&P 500 drawdowns. Pullbacks are opportunities to add thematic exposure. A clearer equity “index” upturn should follow once policy catalysts materialise lower mortgage rates via falling UST yields,...
Iran's Oil Loadings Hit 2018 Highs, Margins Thin
Iran is pumping and loading at near-2018 highs ahead of nuclear talks Loadings are surging, buyers are softer, and oil-on-water is piling up More leverage, more risk, thinner margins. https://t.co/AZPC1zaGls #Oil #Iran #Hormuz #Sanctions #Geopolitics #EnergyMarkets
America Needs More Than Creativity on Hong Kong – It Needs Action
The article argues that the United States must move beyond rhetoric and take concrete action against Hong Kong’s increasingly repressive regime. It highlights the political role of Hong Kong Economic and Trade Offices (HKETOs) in the U.S., which enjoy diplomatic privileges despite...
Memory Chip Prices Surge 50% in Two Weeks
Wow, a respondent to the Dallas Fed's Service Sector report said that the prices they're paying for memory chips have jumped 50% in the last two weeks https://t.co/RdULT0epp4
Boomers Command 45% Spending, 74% Wealth—Shaping Markets
Americans 55 & older now control: 45% of consumer spending 74% of the wealth What does this mean for the next generation, the housing market or the stock market? Some thoughts: https://t.co/tnQSK0khDB https://t.co/7BBPkFGnml
Takaichi Draws a Red Line on Nuclear Sharing Amid Japan’s Security Review
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi publicly rejected a NATO‑style nuclear‑sharing arrangement with the United States, reaffirming Japan's Three Non‑Nuclear Principles during a House of Representatives debate. Her statement comes amid a comprehensive review of Japan's National Security Strategy, Defense Strategy,...
Redirect Chinese Savings to Gold to Preserve USD Dominance
“The goal is to keep the USD as the world's transaction rail without agreeing to absorb unlimited foreign savings into USTs” Exactly. Separating from China & re-shoring requires redirecting Chinese surpluses into a neutral reserve asset (gold)…and that requires 5-figure...
Federal Deficit Swells to Historic 8% of GDP
US Federal Budget Deficit as a % of GDP... 1950s: -0.4% 1960s: -0.7% 1970s: -1.9% 1980s: -3.8% 1990s: -2.1% 2000s: -2.3% 2010s: -4.8% 2020s: -8.3% https://t.co/W7GwqCkcBx
UK Adds
Nearly 300 entities linked to Russian energy and military production have been added to the UK’s sanctions lists, including a network of oil traders whose vast reach was identified by the FT as the result of an IT blunder. https://t.co/Bky4oWVd2S
Ukraine Sabotages Pipeline, Cuts Oil to Slovakia, Hungary
Yesterday, Ukraine turned on Slovakia and Hungary. Ukrainian operatives blew up the main node of the Druzhba oil pipeline that supplies 100% of Slovakia's oil and 86% of Hungary's oil. UKRAINE = TURNS ON TWO MEMBERS IN NATO. https://t.co/ItvWWCVJb5
Economy Accelerates Sorting of Winners and Losers
For @stripe's 2025 annual letter released today, we dug into a ton of macro data. One pattern jumps out: the economy is sorting winners and losers faster than before. As @collision put it—”the sorting machine is whirring faster”. /1
Venezuela's Bolivar Plummets 86%, Calls for Dollarization
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by over 86% against the USD in the past year. VENEZUELA NEEDS DOLLARIZE NOW. https://t.co/HI0TlTBYyv