Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
The Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump’s Tariffs
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6‑3 that President Trump’s tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are unlawful, restoring congressional authority over trade barriers. The decision paves the way for thousands of lawsuits seeking refunds, with industry estimates of up to $175 billion in potential recoveries. Clean‑technology firms, such as BYD, may resume imports via Canada and Mexico, easing supply‑chain constraints. While Trump hints at alternative emergency powers, the ruling is broadly seen as a win for predictability in technology trade.
The Supreme Court Just Struck Down Most of Trump’s Tariffs. What’s Next?
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6‑3 that the president cannot impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, effectively nullifying most of Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff regime. The decision restores congressional primacy over tariff authority and declares the core...
InvestingLive Americas Market News Wrap: Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump Tariffs
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s proposed Section 122 global tariff, removing a major trade escalation risk. Meanwhile, the advance estimate for Q4 GDP posted a 1.4% annual gain, well below the 3.0% consensus, while PCE inflation edged higher...
Tunisia Needs Both Bread and Freedom
Tunisia’s post‑2011 democratic breakthrough delivered expanded civil liberties but failed to translate into lasting economic gains. A 2021 presidential power grab dismantled key checks, curbing judicial independence and reversing many political freedoms. Meanwhile, the economy remains hampered by high inflation,...
Hapag-Lloyd Set to Grow Its Intra-Asia Network Through Zim’s Gold Star Line
German carrier Hapag-Lloyd plans to leverage its $4.2 billion acquisition of Zim Integrated Shipping Services to expand its intra‑Asia footprint through Zim’s Hong Kong‑based affiliate Gold Star Line. Gold Star operates 20 liner services with a fleet of 40 vessels totaling roughly 100,000 TEU,...
Denmark Seizes Blacklisted Container Ship Tied to Iran's Shadow Fleet
The Danish Maritime Authority seized the container vessel Nora, a ship blacklisted by the United States for violating Iran sanctions. Authorities say the vessel was sailing under an unauthorized Comoros flag and abruptly raised the Iranian flag when questioned, indicating...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
The episode reviews the overnight futures market, noting mixed grain movements and modest profit taking in soybeans. A pivotal moment came when the U.S. Supreme Court, in a 6-3 decision, ruled that President Trump’s tariffs were invalid because only Congress...
TFM Showcases Economic Impact and Calls for Energy Reform at DRC Breakfast During Mining Indaba
Tenke Fungurume Mining (TFM) told Mining Indaba delegates it has delivered roughly US$8 billion to the Democratic Republic of Congo’s public treasury since 2006 and supports about 20,000 jobs. The mine, a Copper Mark‑certified operation, allocates 0.3% of revenue to community projects...
Iran’s Regime Is Suffering From Strategic Vertigo. Its Next Misstep May Be Its Last.
Iran’s leadership has repeatedly misread regional dynamics, turning potential strategic gains into costly setbacks. After hesitating to mobilize Hezbollah during the October 7 Hamas offensive, Tehran launched a large‑scale missile and drone barrage against Israel in April 2024, prompting a robust Israeli‑U.S....
Trump Imposes 15% Tariff Through Executive Order Following Supreme Court Ruling
President Donald Trump announced an executive order imposing a 15% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, following a Supreme Court decision that invalidated his earlier emergency‑law tariff plan. The new tariffs include exemptions for critical minerals, metals...
Talks, Plans, and Prison Breaks
The episode examines the latest round of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations in Geneva, noting modest progress on nuclear issues but stark disagreement over missiles and regional proxies, while the U.S. escalates its Middle East military presence with an additional aircraft carrier....
Supreme Court Rejection of Trump Tariffs Has Nuanced Implications for Pharma Importers
The Supreme Court struck down the broad tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, but left Section 232 duties untouched. Because most pharma tariffs were issued under Section 232, the ruling does not eliminate the targeted tariffs on drug imports....
Global Growth Expected to Slow in 2026
World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report projects global real GDP growth to slow in 2026 after a surprisingly resilient 2025. The 2025 boost stemmed from a pre‑tariff trade surge and modest monetary easing, but those advantages are fading. New trade...
Real Estate As Trade Engine: How John E. Drew Builds For Global Commerce
John E. Drew, founder of Drew Companies, is redefining real estate as a trade engine by developing logistics‑focused campuses that link ports, rail, and highways. His strategy emphasizes modular, technology‑enabled facilities that accelerate cargo movement and reduce supply‑chain friction. Drew’s...
War Risk Premium Adds Only $10 to Oil Prices
U.S./Iran: Oil Prices and the War Risk Premium Oil traders currently assign a low probability to a war between the United States and Iran that results in significant and sustained disruption to exports from Iran and other countries in the Persian...
Supreme Court Strikes Down IEEPA-Based Tariffs, Doesn’t Rule on Refunds (“Likely to Be a ‘Mess’”)
The Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) in a 6‑3 decision, covering both reciprocal trade‑deficit tariffs and fentanyl‑related duties. Over half of the tariff revenue collected in recent years...
US Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump’s Tariffs as Unlawful
The U.S. Supreme Court issued a 6‑3 ruling that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not grant the president authority to impose tariffs. The majority applied the major questions doctrine, concluding that Congress must provide clear authorization for such...
U.S. Businesses Line up for Tariff Refunds After Supreme Court Decision
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, opening the door for refunds of roughly $130 billion collected by the Treasury. Importers, retailers and apparel groups are already petitioning for clear guidance on how to reclaim these...
When Lower Inflation Hurts
In this episode of the Dividend Cafe, host David Bonson examines the current U.S. economic landscape, focusing on the paradox of disinflation that may arrive in 2026 but could be economically painful. He breaks down recent data—including a weaker-than-expected GDP...
Post-Poll Upswing Continues on SET
Thai shares rallied toward the 1,500‑point psychological barrier, driven by a catch‑up valuation buying pattern and strong dividend announcements. The SET index’s price‑earnings multiple sits about 33 % below the MSCI All‑Country World Index, widening the gap between blue‑chip and mid‑cap...
Episode 288: Glass Box
David and Kevin analyze the S&P 500’s prolonged tight‑range trading, noting heavy short‑selling and bearish sentiment. They explore scenarios where the Magnificent 7 and broader software stocks rally, potentially sparking a market upside, while also highlighting the resilience of international markets,...
Fed's Logan: There Is Now More Inflation Uncertainty Due to Tariff Decision
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Logan warned that recent tariff decisions have heightened inflation uncertainty, casting doubt on a smooth path to the 2% target. While she remains confident that current policy tools are well‑positioned to address emerging risks, she expressed concern...
Will You Get a Tariff Refund After the Supreme Court Ruling?
The Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s IEEPA‑based tariffs in a 6‑3 decision, opening the possibility of refunds on more than $175 billion of duties collected since early 2025. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted the Treasury holds roughly $774 billion to...
U.S. Supreme Court Ruling on Trump Tariffs a Welcome Development for Canadian Businesses
The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday struck down many of President Trump’s tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, including several that targeted Canadian imports. The ruling was hailed by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business as a...
Equity Risk Discount Signals Overvalued Market Amid Turmoil
An equity risk premium which has recently turned into an equity risk discount. (Historically, an awful launnching pad for future returns) Policy turmoil, slowing domestic economic growth, sticky inflation, circular financing deals in AI (holding up the econ data) and traditional...
'Great News for Spot Rates'? Supreme Court Rules Against Trump Emergency Tariffs
In a 6‑3 ruling, the Supreme Court held that President Trump lacked authority under the International Emergency Economic Power Act to impose sweeping tariffs, invalidating duties that had reached 145% on certain Chinese imports. The decision dismantles a cornerstone of...
KESPA Highlights the Economic Power of Esports Events in South Korea
South Korea’s Korea e‑Sports Association released a study quantifying the economic impact of esports events using its new Multi‑layered Esports Economic Impact (MEEI) model. The analysis shows the 2023 League of Legends World Championship generated a production inducement effect of...
Real Energy Costs Have Declined Since 1960s
🚨New report from API 🚨: Energy & Inflation 2025 Highlights: - As a share of disposal income, energy expenditures have fallen since 1984 - In inflation adjusted terms, gasoline prices were lower in q4 2025 than in 1976 - Fuel costs have been declining...
Democratic Senators Press Bowman on Fed Changes
Democratic senators sent two letters to Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman questioning recent supervisory changes, including a 30% staff cut in the Fed's supervision arm and the removal of bank examiners at banks' request. They also demanded answers on her...
GDP Sees Slow Growth in Q4 2025
Real GDP growth slowed sharply in Q4 2025, posting a 1.4% annualized increase, down from 4.4% in Q3. The decline reflects the fallout from a historic federal shutdown, which cut government spending and removed more than one percentage point of growth....
What Is Trump’s China Policy?
Former President Donald Trump’s China policy is defined by contradictory impulses—pursuing short‑term commercial deals while simultaneously signaling a tougher stance on strategic issues like Taiwan and critical minerals. The administration’s “big‑tent” approach pits pro‑business officials against hard‑line hawks, creating strategic...
High Court Ruling on Trump Tariffs to ‘Ease Uncertainty,’ Says AM Best
The U.S. Supreme Court issued a 6‑3 decision rejecting President Donald Trump’s authority to impose sweeping tariffs, a move hailed by rating agency AM Best as a relief for the insurance sector. The court’s ruling eliminates the tariff‑related uncertainty that has...
US Supreme Court Strike Down Majority of Trump's Tariffs, so Hopefully That's One Less Hardware Buying Headache to Worry About
The U.S. Supreme Court voted 6‑3 to invalidate most of the tariffs President Trump imposed on imported hardware components. The decision hinges on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which the court found did not grant Trump authority for those...
Trans-Pacific Carriers, Importers Slow-Walking Service Contract Negotiations
Trans‑Pacific ocean carriers and U.S. importers are deliberately postponing contract sign‑offs for the 2026‑27 service year as spot rates to the West Coast have slumped more than 20% since early January. Both sides hope that underlying market fundamentals will improve,...
SCOTUS Overturns Trump Tariffs, Global Markets Surge
Trump Tariffs (most of them, not all) struck down by SCOTUS. Immediate reaction on stocks: •US higher (Mag7 up led by GOOGL +4%). •Europe higher: London, Paris, Amsterdam at ATH. •Asia likely positive, but on the contrary the front loadings...
Crypto-Friendly Nations Will Attract Capital and Drive Growth
Capital goes where it’s welcome. Countries that embrace crypto will likely see the most economic growth in the next decade.
Kyrgyzstan’s Energy Emergency Opens the Door to Russian Nuclear Influence
Facing chronic electricity shortages due to over‑reliance on hydropower, Kyrgyzstan is considering a Russian‑built small modular reactor (SMR). President Putin pledged Moscow’s readiness to construct the plant, which could deliver 110‑440 MW of baseload power. The deal would require deep regulatory,...
Bank Deposits Remain Cheap, Abundant, and Slow‑to‑reprice
Deposits are US banks’ primary funding source; they are typically cheap, abundant, and slow to reprice. Many households keep substantial balances in bank accounts that pay little or no interest. https://t.co/jTcFqJyFST
Only Israel Stays Above Replacement Fertility in OECD
All OECD countries other than Israel now have a total fertility rate below 2 https://t.co/jvolvyD3YP
Now That Trump's Tariffs Have Been Ruled Illegal, Will Tech Prices Lower?
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6‑3 that most Trump‑era tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unlawful, effectively eliminating the 25 % flat tariffs on goods from Canada, China and Mexico while leaving steel and aluminum duties intact....
EU Unveils “Savings and Investment Union” Capital Market Reform
The European Commission has launched another attempt to reform capital markets, rebranded as the ‘Savings and Investment Union’. https://t.co/UQ2DvCgG3f
Europe’s 2025 VC Funding Rebounds to 22% of US
2025 saw a modest recovery of venture capital investment in Europe after three years of decline, with a total of €66.2 billion deployed. Even so, this was only 22% of the amount invested in the US, despite the two economies...
Iran's Warning Highlights Hormuz's Strategic Oil Choke Point
My take on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz: “The Iranians recently shot a warning shot across the bow. They indicated that they can shut the straits down and cut the world off from 20% of its supply.” https://t.co/sbb1tuQO4T
Trump Threatens 10% Global Tariff Under Trade Act
President Donald Trump said he would impose a 10 per cent “global tariff” above existing US levies, using section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 which allows the president to set import restrictions temporarily for up to six months. https://t.co/CX64ipBtzT
US GDP Growth Stalls at 1.4% in Q4
US GDP growth SLOWED to a MISERABLE 1.4% in Q4 2025. Forget the AI, Silicon Valley, and Trump hype on the economy. The US economy grew at 2.2% for 2025 -- down from 2.8% in 2024. SPINMEISTER TRUMP HAS A LITTLE PROBLEM...
Supreme Court Ruling Won’t Boost Dollar Amid Growing Policy Chaos
The rollout of reciprocal tariffs last April caused an alarming and sharp fall in the Dollar, so why isn't today's Supreme Court ruling causing the Dollar to rise? The April fall in the Dollar was about policy chaos in DC,...
GBP/USD Breaks Range Lows, 200‑DMA Test Ahead
British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Breaks Range Lows – Can 200DMA Hold? https://t.co/yX3huN7zHS Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/ZKGEjVWqUH
Fed Minutes Reveal Mixed Inflation, AI Boosts Productivity
In this week's #OnInvesting, @LizAnnSonders and I talk about Fed minutes, mixed signals on inflation & unemployment, and weakness in the survey data. Liz Ann & @KevRGordon discuss the latest GDP report and the impact of tariffs, AI-driven investment and...
High Valuations Test Market Resilience in 2026
Markets flat near the highs + valuations near the upper end of history. Tom Martin of Globalt breaks down what that actually means—and what could sustain (or break) it in 2026! Our latest episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast: https://t.co/nA9bmU87rf...
Brazil Should Delay Bitcoin Purchases Until Inflation Target Met
For more than 5 years, Brazil has been unable to hit its inflation target. Now it wants to buy a million Bitcoin over the next 5 years for a National Bitcoin Reserve. Until Brazil hits its inflation target of 3.00%/yr, it should NOT...