Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Iran’s Rial Collapse Mirrors Lebanon’s Crisis, Driving Citizens to Bitcoin
The Iranian rial has collapsed in 2026, spurring hyperinflation and prompting middle‑class savers to flee the banking system. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have attracted billions of dollars, echoing Lebanon’s 2019‑2021 crisis where crypto became a financial lifeline. On‑chain data shows roughly $8 billion of crypto activity in 2025, with users favoring self‑custody wallets and stablecoins for daily needs. The article argues that Iran can learn from Lebanon’s experience to protect wealth and sustain commerce amid sanctions and monetary instability.
Weaker Dollar Spurs Record Foreign Inflows
1. Chart in original post shows the weaker USD (DXY) gets, the more flows will move into USD assets...& DXY had biggest drop in 52 yrs in 1H25👇 2. So as long as DXY keeps falling 10-15%/yr, foreign** inflows will grow **37%...
FDI Feint Glorifies Global South Base
The episode examines recent trends in foreign direct investment (FDI) to emerging markets, noting that high‑frequency data shows a steady $10 billion per week inflow, while UNCTAD’s lagging figures report a 2% decline to $875 billion last year. It explores how short‑term...
Jan Gas Futures Near $5, Could Slip Below $4.40
January Natural Gas vs. Lower Energy, Rates Goals - The January natural gas future (Jan27) is typically the tip of the price curve and will be tops in relevance around the US midterms, with a potential downward bias. Preexisting trends...
Libya's Ramadan Celebrations Tempered by Economic Woes
Libya’s Ramadan celebrations unfolded amid soaring prices, fuel shortages and a sharply devalued dinar, highlighting deepening economic distress. The western central bank cut the currency by nearly 15% for the second time in a year, pushing cooking oil prices up...
Trump's Energy Policy Failed, Wasting Oil Leverage on China
Energy dominance has been Trump’s most consequential failure @Anon1Oil No Defense Production Act. No serious incentives. No strategy. “Drill, baby, drill” turned into “die, baby, die” in the oil patch. And he’s wasted oil as leverage against China. As for telling me...
Relief Might Be Fleeting for the Healthcare Industry After Supreme Court Strikes Down Most Tariffs
The Supreme Court ruled 6‑3 that most Trump‑era tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are invalid, wiping out 25% duties on Canadian and Mexican imports and a 20% hike on China. Sector‑specific duties on steel, aluminum and...
AI Surge Boosts HBM Demand; Buy MU on Dips
Macro: AI demand drives chip & platform leaders. Factors: HBM tightness (Micron), AIP adoption (Palantir). Risks: supply, concentration. Trade: buy MU on pullbacks for HBM exposure. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Pezeshkian Says Iran Will Not Bow to Pressure Amid US Nuclear Talks
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared that Tehran will not submit to external pressure as nuclear talks with the United States continue. He framed the stance as a defense of national sovereignty despite what he described as problems created by world...
Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights: 23rd-27th February 2026
The week ahead centers on Nvidia’s February 25 earnings, where analysts expect revenue to surpass $65 billion and margins to climb above 74 percent, reinforcing its AI leadership. Australian CPI data will test the Reserve Bank’s willingness to raise rates again after...
Indigenous Protesters Occupy Cargill’s Santarem Port Terminal in Brazil
Indigenous protesters occupied Cargill’s Santarem river‑port terminal in Brazil’s Pará state, completely halting operations. The terminal handled more than 5.5 million tonnes of soybeans and maize last year, accounting for over 70 % of the port’s grain volume. Demonstrators are opposing a...
Buy ONON as SCOTUS Limits IEEPA Tariff Upside
Macro: SCOTUS struck down IEEPA tariffs; admin will likely reissue ~80–90% → limited upside. Key: supplier pricing, de minimis. Risk: refunds slow. Trade: buy ONON for margin tailwind. 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Japan's Real Wages Poised to Grow After a Year of Decline
Japan’s real wages are set to move into positive territory in January 2026 after a year of decline, driven by a slowdown in CPI inflation to 2% YoY and a suite of government price‑relief measures. Tax cuts on gasoline, tuition‑free...
Dollar Weakness Boosts Gold, Hurts US Stocks
⚠️US Dollar weakness is historically BAD news for US stocks: AVERAGE ANNUALIZED RETURNS during the 5 major Dollar bear markets since 1967: S&P 500: +6.4% annualized Gold: +43.1% annualized EM stocks: +23.7% annualized👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-stock-market-has-peaked
India, Brazil Sign Mining Pact as Modi Targets $20bn Trade in Five Years
India and Brazil signed a mining and minerals cooperation pact in New Delhi, aiming to secure raw material supplies for India's expanding steel sector. The agreement targets raising bilateral trade from roughly $15 bn to over $20 bn within five years, with...
Apollo’s Marc Rowan Says Japan Is Poised for a Big Comeback
Apollo Global Management’s co‑founder Marc Rowan told investors in Tokyo that Japan is on the brink of a major economic turnaround. He highlighted that trillions of dollars have been parked in cash and that recent corporate‑governance reforms are unlocking carve‑out...
10% Market Slide Could Wipe $
10% equity drop could erase $7T and shave ~0.9% off GDP. Tech/AI capex and hyperscaler overinvestment raise downside risk. Trade insight: trim cyclicals & hardware suppliers. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
US Supreme Court Reasserts Its Power, Strikes Down Trump Global Tarrifs
The U.S. Supreme Court issued a 6‑3 ruling that invalidated President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariff regime, finding the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not grant the president authority to impose tariffs. Authored by Chief Justice John Roberts, the...
EU's Orban and Fico Threaten Ukraine Aid, Risk Suspension
How many more years is this idiocy going to continue? Two collaborationist regimes in the center of Europe, during the largest continental war since WWII, are openly undermining the entire 500-million EU and the defense of the free world, all while...
Week Ahead: Does the Dollar Still Have Legs After the Tariff Ruling?
The U.S. Supreme Court invalidated President Trump's emergency authority to impose broad tariffs, prompting a modest sell‑off in the dollar despite its recent resilience. Dollar Index fell to just above 97.5, yet key technical levels held, while the euro recovered...
Indian Labour-Intensive Exports to Face Lower 10% Surcharge After US Court Axes Trump’s Tariffs
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down the 18% reciprocal tariffs imposed on Indian goods, prompting President Trump to replace them with a uniform 15% worldwide tariff under Section 122. This adjustment lowers the levy on Indian labour‑intensive exports—textiles, leather, shrimp—from the...
Debt Wall Myth: Accounting Shows Different Reality
The $10 trillion U.S. debt wall has become a political weapon. But the accounting tells a different story than what you'll read in mainstream economics textbooks.
ANALYSIS | Trump Pushes US Towards War with Iran as Advisers Urge Focus on Economy
President Donald Trump has ordered a massive military buildup in the Middle East and is preparing for a possible multi‑week air strike against Iran, despite no clear strategic justification. Senior White House officials say the administration lacks unified support for...
Michael Hudson: Destiny of Civilization – Financialization & Collapse
Michael Hudson argues that the shift from industrial capitalism to finance‑driven rentier capitalism has turned economic growth into rent extraction, eroding productivity and widening inequality. He traces the historical battle against landlord rents in 19th‑century Britain to today’s debt‑financed housing,...
Financial Media Misuses Weak GDPNow Forecasts to Spin Bullish Narrative
Recall @HalftimeReport Slink's confidentally quoting (on almost a daily basis) of the robust GDP Now projections by the Atlanta Fed (among the worst forecasters extant) to support her "the economy is great" and bullish market thesis? That is the...
Supreme Court Undermines Washington’s Geoeconomic Power Base
The legal foundation of Washington’s geoeconomic power plays is looking shaky after the U.S. Supreme Court ruling invalidated the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) Source: Vizualytiks https://www.voronoiapp.com/trade/US-Tariff-Revenue-7693
South Korea’s Undersea Dilemma: Why SSNs and UUVs Must Work Together
South Korea confronts simultaneous undersea threats from North Korea’s emerging SLBM‑capable submarines, a potential Taiwan crisis that could stretch U.S. and Japanese naval assets, and an increasingly active Russian presence via the Northern Sea Route. The author argues that choosing...
2025 US Job Growth Hits Decade Low Amid Tariffs
US job growth in 2025 was the weakest outside of recessions in the past two decades. US TARIFFS = TANK TIME. https://t.co/ONURMpns4b
Venezuela: Underrated U.S. Geopolitical Triumph
Politics aside, Venezuela has been an enormous geopolitical victory for the US that is probably understated and not well understood by most.
S. Korea to Closely Monitor Additional US Measures Following Supreme Court Ruling on Trump's Tariffs
South Korea announced it will closely monitor any new U.S. trade actions after the Supreme Court upheld the legality of former President Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel, aluminum and certain Chinese goods. The ruling removes a major legal obstacle, allowing...
Tariff Refunds Benefit Importers, Not Shoppers
A tariff “refund” mostly goes to whoever wrote the tariff check: the importer of record. That’s not the same person who paid more at the register. So refunds -- if they're offered -- might sound like consumer relief, but in...
Effective High‑skill Immigration Policy Requires
One of my most important messages about high skilled immigration is that you have to do the policy right. And to do that, you have to accurately understand the economics of high skilled immigration and the practical realities and mechanism...
Trump's Tariff Threats Persist, Undermining Economic Certainty
If you thought Trump would stop throwing around tariffs right, left, and centre after Friday’s ruling, think twice… I still think the impact is blown out of proportion by the media, but it does affect economic sentiment due to the lack...
Iran’s $20 B Boeing Order Vanished After Deal Collapse
Under the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, Iran ordered 110 Boeing jets — 80 for Iran Air (77W, 777-9, 737 MAX) & 30 737 MAX for Aseman signed in 2016–17…deal value $20 billion at list prices After Trump admin withdrew Iran deal...
Russia's Economy Surpasses Japan Amid Kuril Islands Dispute
As Russia and Japan arm wrestle over the Kuril Islands, Russia’s economy outpaces Japan. https://t.co/Y7wv29WjpH
Trump Hikes Global Tariff to 15%, Signaling Trade Upheaval
Trump raises his global tariff from 10% to 15%. All in one day. His geopolitics and geoeconomics. Is this it? Or will he do more that affects trade, supply chains, and logistics?
USD Stays Strong; “Global Reserve Asset” Rebrands Failure
For what its worth, the reason the term “Global Reserve Asset” has gained traction over last 5 yrs is bc those who previously said USD would lose “Global Reserve Currency” status had to pivot after getting everything they ever dreamed...
Europe Needs Independent Central Banks to Drive AI Growth
In my interview with @WSJ, I spoke about Europe’s economy, the importance of central bank independence, AI and more. Read my interview https://t.co/LEbflpU9tB https://t.co/KlfELnA179
Supreme Court Blocks Trump Tariffs, Trade Uncertainty Persists
Global economies. Trade. Supply chains. Logistics. Was Trump’s action to the Supreme Court striking down his tariffs it? Or will there be more?
Supreme Court Destroys Trump Tariffs, Supply Chains Must Adapt
Supply Chains Brace for Renewed Turbulence as Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump Tariffs. If you have not made your supply chains flexible and adaptable, good luck. https://t.co/PfhBGWsOQa
Insane Wealth Tax Triggers Global Investor Panic
This is utterly moronic on all levels. Have Dutch politicians overdosed on stupid pills? An ‘insane’ new wealth tax has global investors panicking https://t.co/VsB8fRFFkX
Trump Tariff Drama's Ripple Effect on Canada Explained
On this week's Canada Letter, our @nytimes Saturday morning newsletter, Ian Austen walks you through how the latest Trump tariff drama affects Canada. Also, a roundup of Canada-related stories from across our newsroom. Read, share, sign up! https://t.co/tsuuBxOUtM
GDP per Capita Fails to Reflect Real Quality of Life
GDP/capita is one of the worst metrics to gauge actually important things about people's lives. There, I said it.
NYT Reveals Bridge Owner Met Commerce Secretary Before Trump’s Attack
On Feb. 10 we @nytimes broke the story that the owner of Ambassador Bridge, a Detroit trucking heir, had met with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hours before President Trump took to social media to blast a new competing bridge...
Trump's Threats Prompt Modi to Dismantle India’s Protections
My take on MODI'S WIN over Trump in the US-India Trade Deal: "Ironically, Trump's threats have allowed Modi to dismantle some of India's protectionist measures. Previously, the dismantling wouldn't have been possible. Now Modi can say, 'Enemy Trump made...
Stay Overweight on Equities, Still Diversify Globally
I joined the @MilkRoadMacro show this week. Laid out why we remain overweight equities, but you want to still own other parts of the 🌍. https://t.co/X8faci8XLY
Dollar Declines Despite Hot Inflation and SCOTUS Ruling
The Dollar yesterday fell back to its recent lows against EM, even though core PCE inflation came in hot and the SCOTUS decision should have lifted it. Regime change for USD is upon us. Things that ordinarily lift the Dollar...
Dollar's Decline Signals Shift; Reconsider Your Investments
Oh boy. “DOLLAR in DECLINE” “The U.S. currency has lost its dominance. What investors should do now.”
Dollar's Future Uncertain After Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
Week Ahead: Does the Dollar Still Have Legs After the Tariff Ruling?: The Supreme Court struck down President Trump's use of emergency powers to impose widespread tariffs. The court did not rule on refunds. Trump quickly announced a 10% across-the-board…...
USD Stays Strong Despite Weak GDP and Tariffs
Outside of an occasional shock like around Liberation Day, it is not clear that the tariffs had much impact in the FX market. $USD held up fairly well in the face of the disappointing GDP and tariff ruling. What's...