Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Bond Yields Fall After CPI Report Shows Tamer Inflation
U.S. Treasury yields fell after the January CPI came in cooler than expected, pulling municipal bond yields lower as well. Despite the softer inflation print, analysts say the Federal Reserve will likely keep rates on hold and consider only a couple of cuts later in the year. Municipal markets stayed firm, with the two‑year muni‑UST ratio near 60% and the 10‑year ratio around 62%, while a $6.9 billion new‑issue calendar supports demand. Overall, the data reinforces a “gold‑medal” economy narrative of strong growth, stable jobs and moderating price pressures.
US Supreme Court Says Next Friday Will Be a Decision Day
The U.S. Supreme Court announced three decision days—Feb. 20, 24, and 25—when it will issue opinions, though it has not disclosed which cases will be decided. Lawmakers in the House have voted against new tariffs and the Senate is expected...
FedEx Plans to Close over 475 Stations Due to Network 2.0
FedEx will shut more than 475 stations, roughly 30% of its U.S. and Canada footprint, as part of its Network 2.0 consolidation. The initiative merges Ground and Express operations, shifting focus to large metros such as San Francisco. Already, over 200 sites...
Trump Unveils White House Maritime Action Plan to Restore U.S. Seapower
President Trump released the White House Maritime Action Plan (MAP), the most ambitious U.S. shipbuilding strategy since the 1936 Merchant Marine Act. The 35‑page document proposes a fee on foreign‑built vessels, a dedicated Maritime Security Trust Fund, Maritime Prosperity Zones,...
Investors Choose Safe Bonds, Accepting Low Real Returns
One way to interpret recent price action in the bond market is that large pools of investment capital have made the determination that a 3.6%-4.1% guaranteed nominal return over the next 5-10 years is preferable to taking on the risk/reward...
Fed's Goolsbee Sees Encouraging and Concerning Parts of the CPI Report
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee highlighted a mixed CPI report, noting a modest 0.2% month‑over‑month rise in headline inflation and a steady 2.5% year‑over‑year rate. While core inflation matched expectations, services inflation remains elevated, keeping overall inflation around 3% and...
Cameroon Suspends International Registry Citing Fraud
Cameroon’s Ministry of Transport announced a suspension of its international ship registry after uncovering multiple fraudulent registrations. The halt, effective immediately, follows pressure from the EU, IMO and U.S. authorities concerned about the flag’s role in the shadow fleet and...
US Should Avoid Iran Strike During Ramadan, Preserve Allies
This is the last weekend before Ramadan (2/17 - 3/26) and it happens to be a 3 day US holiday. Not that someone with Trump's risk appetite couldn't strike Iran during the holiest month of the Islamic calendar, it certainly...
Trump Tells Troops 'Fear' Is Powerful Motivator in Difficult Iran Talks
President Donald Trump addressed troops at Fort Bragg, warning that fear may be necessary to compel Iran in stalled nuclear negotiations. He highlighted the recent deployment of a second U.S. aircraft carrier to the Middle East as a contingency if...
British Gas Boss Warns UK Electricity Bills Will Soar by 2030
British Gas chief executive Chris O’Shea warned that UK electricity bills will exceed the 2022 peak by 2030 as the country scrambles to fund massive grid upgrades. He attributed the surge to years of under‑investment, with two‑thirds of future costs...
Defensive Sectors Exhausted, Market Poised for Broad Correction
While sectors like staples (XLP), energy (XLE), materials (XLB) and industrials (XLI) have all provided a safe haven in recent weeks as large cap tech has sucked wind, most of these are all now reaching exhaustion. This means that from...
Tariffs, Supplier Fire Continue to Batter Ford
Ford Motor Co. reported a roughly $2 billion tariff hit in 2025, double the amount projected just months earlier, after a miscommunication about the effective date of auto‑part tariff offsets. A fire at Novelis’ Oswego aluminum plant added another $2 billion headwind,...
Elon Musk’s X Is Accused of Selling Blue Checkmarks to Sanctioned Iranian Government Accounts
Elon Musk’s X platform has granted blue‑checkmark Premium subscriptions to more than two dozen Iranian government officials and state‑run media outlets that are subject to U.S. sanctions, according to a Tech Transparency Project report cited by Wired. The blue checkmark,...
Trade Pacts Will Open New Markets & Won't Hurt Farmers, Assures Chirag Paswan
India’s decade‑long reform agenda, highlighted by UPI, GST and digital payment schemes, is now bearing fruit, according to Food Processing Minister Chirag Paswan. New free‑trade agreements, especially the pending pact with the United States, are expected to unlock fresh export...
US Aluminum Market Digests Tariff-Induced Volatility at Platts Symposium
The episode reviews how the U.S. aluminum market is coping with volatility caused by the 50% import tariff introduced in June, examining its impact on industry sentiment and pricing. Experts discuss the shifting demand landscape, noting the slowdown from removed...
Global FX: How Much Is Too Much?
In this episode, J.P. Morgan Global Research analysts Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan, and Patrick Locke examine the current foreign‑exchange (FX) outlook, focusing on how recent US equity stress and the relative underperformance of US stocks are influencing currency markets. They...
Rubio Holds Joint Talks with Syria's FM and SDF Commander in Munich
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al‑Shibani and Kurdish‑led Syrian Democratic Forces commander Mazloum Kobane on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. The talks came two weeks after a Jan. 30 cease‑fire that promises to...
Markets Trade Transition as Central Banks Hold Steady
Pauses aren’t pivots. Central banks are holding steady, but easing remains conditional. Inflation is cooler, labor is softer, yet not weak enough to confirm a recession. Markets are trading the transition, not the destination.
Germany Mulls Debt Brake Exemption for Raw Materials Fund
Germany weighs debt brake exemption to boost raw materials fund https://t.co/lsvcwd09Y5 via @mcnienaber @ocrook https://t.co/wmKMMM7Dgu
Lithuania Could Break EU Ranks Over Critical Minerals Deal
Lithuania warned it may negotiate a stand‑alone critical minerals agreement with the United States if the European Union fails to deliver a bloc‑wide pact promptly. The move aims to secure rare‑earths, battery metals and other strategic inputs for its defense...
Rabois Predicts Trump May Block China's Nvidia Chip Access
Here's @rabois saying he thinks the Trump administration may ultimately reverse course on letting China get access to Nvidia's best chips https://t.co/XImO09oRyf
S&P 500 Mirrors US M2‑to‑GDP Ratio Trends
There's a general and logical correlation between money supply and capital markets. But what about money supply relative to GDP? Here's $SPX overlaid with the ratio of US M2 / real GDP: https://t.co/UA5X14bWEk
Russia to Build 10 More Icebreakers and 46 Salvage Vessels to Develop NSR
Russia announced a second phase of Northern Sea Route development, planning to build ten additional nuclear icebreakers and 46 salvage vessels by 2035, supported by three new Arctic rescue‑fleet bases. The current fleet includes eight nuclear icebreakers, with the latest...
Key Differences Between OFAC's New GL
This is actually the best way to describe the difference between GL 49 and GL 50 (the two Venezuela-related General Licenses issued by OFAC today)
Regulation Entrenches Incumbents, Stifling Innovation and Growth
Why is the mkt so centralized? Well, only megacorps survive the red tape & regulatory fees. “Regulation favors the incumbent” Most scaled companies extract value instead of innovate. They use short-vol strategies that extract from the middle class instead of grow...
Health Cover to Be Bundled with Pension Schemes, Says PFRDA Chief
India’s PFRDA is piloting pension plans that bundle health insurance, allowing up to 30% of the retirement corpus to be earmarked for medical expenses. ICICI, Axis and Tata‑backed funds are testing the “Swasthya” product, which could leverage pooled investors to...
CPI Slowdown Fuels Falling Yields, Bullish Duration, Utilities, Gold
Post Hedgeye's Nowcast nailing another decel in CPI Growth decelerates → yields fall → correlations re-assert That’s the whole #Quad3 playbook ✔️ Duration bullish ✔️ Utilities work ✔️ Gold works ❌ Financials don’t
Danny Moses Show Returns: Economy, AI, Markets Forecast
The Danny Moses Show returns tonight @scrippsnews at 7PM sponsored by @Kalshi. Great to have @pboockvar join me & we talk about the global & U.S. economy, A.I. stocks/bonds, commodities, the consumer, #FED, Private Credit & make some @Kalshi predictions... https://t.co/vQGLUQMHUc...
Trade Tips From Washington DC
Ashraf Laidi notes recent Trump administration comments that imply a deliberately weaker US dollar ahead of today’s non‑farm payroll (NFP) release. He suggests the labor data could fall far short of the 68,000 consensus, echoing a pattern of "benign neglect"...
Explore 100+ Years of Industry Economic Geography Data
If you are interested in over 100 years of economic history and data on these geographic trends for this industry, I have some here for you: https://t.co/kayw0VoAML
China Backs Struggling Cuba Amid Looming US Showdown
As Cuba teeters on the brink of economic disaster, China promises continued support. It looks like a SHOWDOWN between the US & China might be in the cards. https://t.co/rb7Qf0CdN2
The Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway: Still Growing 8 Years Later
Eight years after its 2018 launch, the Addis Ababa‑Djibouti Railway has become a fully Ethiopian‑Djiboutian‑run, electrified corridor linking land‑locked Ethiopia to the Port of Djibouti. Management shifted from China Railway Construction Corporation to the two governments in May 2024, and Djibouti’s top...
Prometheus Macro Impresses; Aahan Delivers Real Quant Success
This is extremely impressive. Congrats to @prometheusmacro and the clients who are using its models If you are looking for Quant Macro That Actually Works, Aahan is your guy
U.S. Rig Count Holds Steady as Oil Drilling Slips and Gas Activity Climbs
The U.S. rig count held steady at 551 this week, with oil rigs slipping by three to 409 while gas rigs rose by three to 133. Crude output climbed to 13.713 million barrels per day, edging close to an all‑time high....
AI’s Growth Hinges on How Hard New Ideas Become to Discover
How much economic growth will get from AI? This is massively speculative. However, in a new piece today @ngoldschlag and myself make the case we can learn something about this from an academic economics debate about whether "ideas are getting...
Carbon — In Focus: EU ETS in Political Crosshairs
Political scrutiny of the EU emissions trading system intensified in mid‑February, pushing the front‑year EU ETS contract down almost 6% on Feb 5 and a further 7% after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s comments. EU officials denied reports of extending free‑allowance allocations beyond...
Labor Holds, Inflation Cools, Yen Soars Amid Crosscurrents
Resilient labor. Cooling inflation. Duration rallying. Yen surging. 130K jobs. CPI at 2.4%. 10Y yields sliding. Dollar down on the week. This isn’t a clean cycle — it’s macro crosscurrents. Full breakdown: https://t.co/vNAZw80IbE
Assume BRICS' USD‑bypass Plans Are Real; Doubt USD Stability
Remember, every utterance from BRICS & Global South regarding potential new system to bypass USD is to be treated as if already operational & making material difference. And every piece of evidence that USD system isnt going anywhere is to be...
Labour MP Calls for NATO ‘Neighbourhood’ Model for Decisions
Labour MP Graeme Downie argues NATO’s consensus‑based decision‑making is too slow for modern crises. He proposes a “neighbourhood” model that empowers regional allies, especially those closest to a theatre, to act quickly. Downie cites the UK’s anti‑submarine capabilities in the...
Last Year's Job Growth Fell Below a Single Biden Month
“.. we had less job growth all of last year than we had in an average month during the Biden administration.”
Zelenskiy Meets Iranian Opposition Figure Pahlavi
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy met exiled Iranian opposition leader Reza Pahlavi on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. The two discussed the need to tighten sanctions on Iran and other authoritarian regimes, and jointly condemned the growing military cooperation between...
One in Three French Car Manufacturing Jobs Was Lost in Dramatic 13-Year Decline
Employment in France’s automotive sector dropped from 425,500 in 2010 to 286,800 in 2023, a loss of nearly 139,000 jobs or 33 %. The decline was driven primarily by car manufacturers, which shed 46,000 positions, while parts suppliers lost 31.5 % of...
Americans Foot ~90% of Trump Tariff Costs
The New York Fed announced that US businesses and consumers paid NEARLY 90% of the cost of Donald Trump’s tariffs last year. TARIFFS = A SALES TAX ON AMERICANS. https://t.co/xEEfGxreUm
Crypto Markets Rally After Softer-Than-Expected US Inflation Report
Crypto market capitalization jumped nearly 5% to $2.44 trillion after the U.S. CPI report showed inflation at 2.4%, below expectations. Bitcoin surged past $69,000, up 4.5%, while Ethereum reclaimed the $2,000 level with a 7.5% gain. Despite the price rally, on‑chain...
Bitcoin Beats Gold, Outperforms by 5% in Hours
Gold is "no longer actual gold," Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas says. "Bitcoin outperformed gold by 5% in the first three hours of trading on Friday, Feb 13th" 😂
AI-Driven Low Rates Boost Term Premium Compression, Hedge Long Bonds
A very positive setup for duration and UST term premium compression if rates are to stay low for a longer timeframe because of AI disruption. It will take time to play out but long end is well priced and...
Infosys ADRs Surge 4%, Wipro's Rise over 2% Despite Weak Wall Street Trade
Infosys ADRs rebounded on Friday, jumping 4% to a intraday high of $14.77, while Wipro ADRs rose 2.2% to $2.33 despite a weakening Nasdaq and soft domestic IT trading. The broader U.S. market slipped, with the Nasdaq down 0.9% and...
Market Prices Accelerating Fed Rate Cuts Through 2026
Notably, market-implied FOMC cuts through 2026 have been increasing. Through February, Fed Fund futures have priced in another -14bps of cuts for the year - and now the most dovish outlook after CPI since Dec 3rd: https://t.co/NZF2YksrWV
CPI Cools to 2.4%, Fed Eyes Jobs as Unemployment Falls
US #CPI inflation figures came in line with expectations of a pace cooling. Headline dropped from 2.7% to 2.4% while core eased 2.6% to 2.5%. This does shift priority towards employment in the Fed's dual mandate but the jobless rate...
TC Energy Tops Q4 Profit Estimate on Strong U.S. Natural Gas Demand
TC Energy reported fourth‑quarter earnings per share of US $0.72, beating the consensus estimate of $0.68, driven by record natural‑gas deliveries in both the United States and Canada. U.S. pipeline flows rose 9.5% YoY to 29.6 Bcf/d, while Canadian deliveries hit a...