Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
US Fixation on the Hard-Hat Economy and Making Manufacturing Great Again Makes Little Sense
The article argues that U.S. political focus on reviving the “hard‑hat” economy is misplaced. Manufacturing now comprises under 8% of employment, and recent tariff and subsidy policies have raised input costs without restoring jobs. Federal initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act and Chips and Science Act have made capital more expensive, while output remains at two‑decade‑old levels. The piece contends that the U.S. economy is naturally transitioning toward services, making protectionist manufacturing agendas economically unsound.
Dedicated Freight Corridor Won’t Divert Cargo Volumes to Competing Ports, Says APSEZ
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) says the Western Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC) will not erode cargo volumes at its flagship Mundra Port. The company cites Mundra’s deep draft, faster vessel turnaround and integrated logistics ecosystem as structural advantages...
Honda, Toyota Voice Concerns over EU's 'Made in Europe' Plan
Japanese and British automakers Honda and Toyota have warned that the European Union’s proposed “Made in Europe” plan could limit their market access. The initiative, driven by EU Executive Vice‑President Stephane Sejourne, seeks to curb cheap Chinese imports and boost...
Cabinet Clears Rs 1 Lakh Crore for India's Big Urban Reset; Aims to Unlock Rs 4 Lakh Crore Investment
The Indian cabinet approved a Rs 1 lakh crore Urban Challenge Fund (UCF) to drive market‑led urban infrastructure over the next five years. The fund offers 25% central assistance, requiring cities to raise at least 50% of project costs from bonds, loans or...
UTF Vs. ASGI: Why A 6% Discount And Rate Cut Cycle Make UTF The Obvious Choice
Cohen & Steers Infrastructure Fund (UTF) received a Buy rating, while abrdn Global Infrastructure Income Fund (ASGI) was placed on Hold due to its premium valuation. UTF trades at a 6 % discount to NAV and carries 29.7 % leverage, positioning it to...
South Africa's Record Real Rates Prompt Slow, Steady Cuts
South African rates are restrictive. The real policy rate is the highest it’s been in 20 years, and they expect growth. They are suffocating the economy with high real rates. However, we can expect more rate cuts throughout the year,...
January’s Mild Inflation Report Comes with ‘Qualifications’
January’s consumer‑price index showed modest headline inflation, rising 0.3% month‑over‑month and 3.2% year‑over‑year, but the report included several qualifiers. Core CPI eased to 4.8% annual, driven by lower energy costs, while shelter and services remained sticky. Analysts highlighted the mixed...
India Must Shift From Growth at Scale to Productivity for Viksit Bharat 2047: KPMG Report
KPMG’s new report urges India to move from a scale‑driven growth model to one focused on productivity as it targets a Viksit Bharat by 2047. It outlines ten priority areas, including deepening manufacturing, upskilling a youthful workforce, modernising MSMEs, and...
What America Forgets About the UN
The Financial Times opinion piece argues that the United States increasingly overlooks the strategic value of the United Nations, treating the body as a bureaucratic relic rather than a vital platform for multilateral problem‑solving. It highlights how U.S. disengagement erodes...
Politicized Asset Stewardship Spurs Lease Cancellations, REIT Shorts
Macro: politicized stewardship of public assets rising; Key: Interior canceled NLT lease; Risk: litigation & environmental hurdles delay projects; Trade: short park‑adjacent REITs. ⚖️ — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Malaysia Beats Forecast, Yet MSMEs Face Headwinds
Malaysia’s Economic Outlook & Risks Full-year performance exceeds government’s upper ceiling based on 4Q 2025 data Outperformance —► Hawkish BNM bias. Chatter of tougher operating conditions on the ground, especially for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) including F&B sector are leading many...
World Liberty Forum Reaches Capacity as Global Leaders Prepare to Convene at Mar-a-Lago
World Liberty Financial announced that its World Liberty Forum has sold out, with nearly 400 senior executives, investors and policymakers confirmed for the February 18, 2026 gathering at Mar‑a‑Lago. The day‑long event will feature high‑profile speakers from finance, technology, sports and government,...
A Precious Metals & Miners Update
The episode reviews the recent market turbulence, highlighting how precious metals and mining stocks held up better than tech and crypto sectors during Thursday's massive sell‑off. A surprisingly mild U.S. CPI report on Friday helped the metals complex rebound, erasing...
China and US Slowdown Drag Global EV Sales
Global EV sales hampered by China, US slowdown in January "Global EV registrations, a proxy for sales, fell by 3% year-on-year to almost 1.2 million units in January, according to the data, which includes battery-electric and plug-in hybrid cars. They were down...
Strengthening Critical Mineral Supply Chains Amid Geopolitical Fragmentation
Thanks @bmwfoundation for partnering w @ColumbiaUEnergy on such a substantive & productive session @MunSecConf on how to enhance critical mineral & energy supply chain security amid fragmenting geopolitics. Great insights from DOE’s @AlexFitzDC, @dan_brouillette & so many others. https://t.co/D1xRKHu7gO
Oil Prices Level Out Despite Possible Opec-Plus Supply Growth
Oil prices closed Friday largely unchanged after a session marked by sharp swings between macro‑economic headwinds and geopolitical support. Traders weighed the prospect of OPEC‑plus expanding output against lingering demand concerns. The market’s equilibrium suggests that supply‑side expectations have not...
Anti‑Trump Bias Skews Dollar and Inflation Forecasts
A lot of economic commentary is inflected by anti-Trump sentiment. That's why so many forecast the Dollar would go into a death spiral last year (it didn't) & why there's so much focus on inflation overheating now (it isn't). Yesterday's...
Big Shocks Make Firms Change Prices Faster, Speeding Inflation
Recent inflation surge has subsided in most advanced economies, but effects may linger in unexpected ways. Inflation responds much more rapidly to large shocks than standard models predict, because firms adjust prices more frequently when shocks are large https://t.co/Lrr7d9eevX
Early Estimates Point to Lower Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment for 2027
Social Security delivered a 2.8% cost‑of‑living adjustment (COLA) for 2026, boosting benefits by roughly $56 per month. Early government inflation data suggest the 2027 COLA could be markedly lower, with estimates ranging from 1.2% to 3.1%. Analysts warn that a...
Import‑Dependent Nations Face Greater Food Insecurity, Regardless of Wealth
Countries that rely on staple imports to feed their population tend to report higher levels of food insecurity. This holds even after controlling for income per capita, suggesting that exposure to international markets is independent of development level https://t.co/2tzjysif3u
Wars Trigger Persistent Democratic Decline in Specific Contexts
Data covering 115 conflicts & 145 countries over past 75 years show wars cause large & persistent declines in democratic institutions. Not inevitable. It appears only in specific settings –first-time conflicts, internal wars, conflicts that governments win https://t.co/Lq6ORZiquj
Ocean Alliance, ONE Rework Trans-Atlantic Services, Remove Ships
Ocean Alliance and Ocean Network Express (ONE) announced a major overhaul of their trans‑Atlantic service network, removing several vessels and consolidating U.S. port calls. The redesign follows a year of uneven trade, with U.S. exports to Europe rising sharply while...
EU Trade Surplus Shrinks as Tariffs and China Pressure
1/5 Reuters: "The EU's trade surplus kept shrinking, data showed on Friday, as tariffs weighed on exports to the U.S. and rising Chinese imports crowded out domestic production, highlighting existential threats to the bloc's economic model." https://t.co/91sJO2nGjP
Provincial Revenues Forecast 2‑3% Growth, Lagging Economy
1/4 SCMP: "Major provinces are budgeting for 2 to 3 per cent growth this year in general public operating revenue, broadly in line with last year but below broader economic growth targets, Fitch Ratings said in a research note." https://t.co/HwyAPw042O
Export Momentum Carries Corn Market Into New Year
U.S. corn prices remain buoyed by robust export demand that persisted into early 2025, according to Compeer Financial economist Megan Roberts. While prices are still below target levels, the export momentum offsets downward pressure. Roberts noted that a nationwide E15...
UK Growth Stalls at 0.1% Amid Rising Taxes
The U.K.'s GDP grew just 0.1% in Q4 2025 and an ANEMIC 1.3% for the entire year. Under RUSSOPHOBE Keir Starmer, taxes are up, productivity is flat, and consumers are feeling squeezed. https://t.co/WDyleJsH6n
China Cracks Down on Hidden Corporate IOU Market
1/3 Very interesting Caixin article on attempts by Chinese regulators to get their arms around "the opaque market for corporate IOUs that has allowed big-name companies to defer payments to suppliers on a massive scale." https://t.co/FIJywKAtIX
Milan-26: India’s Maritime Diplomacy Comes of Age
India’s 13th Milan naval exercise, Milan‑26, will run Feb 18‑25 in Visakhapatnam, coinciding with the International Fleet Review and the IONS summit, forming the “Vizag trifecta.” The biennial drill has grown from four regional navies in 1995 to 70 confirmed participants...
Swiss Inflation Near Zero as Money Growth Slows
Switzerland’s inflation rate is on the low end of its TARGET RANGE at 0.03%/yr. Switzerland’s money supply (M3) has been growing below Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 4.40%-6.40%/yr since 2020 & is now only at 4.58%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY =...
Saudi Arabia’s Oil Demand Plummets as Gas Powers Electricity
CHART OF THE DAY: Among the world's top oil consumers, a curious trend. The 2nd largest consumption drop last year ocurred in Saudi Arabia, where demand fell ~60,000 b/d (only South Korea saw a larger drop). The reason? Gas is...
Why a Tariff Ruling Could Mean Consumer Relief
Arunima Sinha explains that a pending U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the president's authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) could sharply reduce tariffs on many consumer goods, lowering the effective tariff rate from about 15% to the...
China's January Financing Jumps 2.4% Year‑over‑year, Beating Forecasts
1/5 According to Caixin, China’s aggregate financing grew slightly faster than expected in January, rising by RMB 7.22 trillion. This was 2.4% more than in January 2025 and 10.4% more than in January 2024. It is equal to 5.1% of annual...
China's Railway Investment Climbs 5.5% in January
Xinhua: "China's railway sector completed 46.3 billion yuan (about 6.67 billion U.S. dollars) in fixed-asset investment in January, up 5.5 percent year on year." https://t.co/g109GF2REm
China's Cheap Middle East Oil Squeezes West African Sellers
China is pulling more cheap oil from the Middle East. That leaves W. African oil struggling to find buyers until it gets cheap enough to move again, writes @JuneGoh_Sparta In this tight market, the Middle East has the upper hand. Sorry oil...
China’s Inbound FDI Collapses as Outbound Investment Soars
For years, the world invested in China. Since 2022, foreign direct investment inflows to China have PLUNGED, while China's foreign investment outflows have SURGED. https://t.co/TCWhEPF7bq
OPEC+ Plans April Production Hikes Amid Sanctions
OPEC+ may restart April hikes to catch peak summer and regain share as sanctions bite Russia/Iran. https://t.co/cILwlUi7h2 #OPECplus #Oil #IEA #SaudiArabia #UAE #Iran #Russia
Disinflation Relief Meets Market Disruption Fear
CPI cools to 2.4%. Yields fall 18bps. S&P 500 posts its worst week since November. If inflation is easing… why aren’t stocks cheering? The market isn’t repricing rates. It’s repricing disruption. Disinflation Relief, Disruption Fear 👇 https://t.co/JM3yRs0tFM
China EV Sales Dip, Exports Surge 70% Abroad
China EV Sales Drop for First Time Since February 2024—Chinese exports of EVs and hybrids rise 70% in 2025 as automakers shift their focus overseas @ivy_jiahuihuang https://t.co/PdiFmEGPXg https://t.co/PdiFmEGPXg
Trump's Tariff Push Backfires, Approval Slips Sharply
Trump's tariff blitz BACKFIRES. Approval ratings are tanking. 52% of Americans say Trump’s economic policies have made things worse. Now the White House is scrambling to put a positive spin on the US economy. https://t.co/a1JUyOz6LJ
No Bullish Catalyst for Oil in 2026, Repeat Likely
🚦From a pure fundamentals perspective, there's simply no bullish driver in sight capable of pushing oil prices into the high $70s—or higher—in 2026. ⚽️Betting your capital on a major war with Iran or any similar geopolitical shock to spike prices isn't...
Services Inflation Sticks While Housing Disinflation Persists
Closing out the week with @GregDaco and @ElizRosner talking about inflation: "On the latest episode of The Inflation Brief from ECON-versations with NABE, hosts Greg Daco and Laura Rosner-Warburton are joined by special guest Claudia Sahm to break down the...
Evolving Energy Security Toolkit Amid Fragmented Order, EU‑US Distrust
Energy security is high on the @MunSecConf agenda. I’ve been discussing how the toolkit to deliver it must evolve—amid a fragmenting global order, the need to accelerate the clean transition, and a far deeper level of European distrust toward the...
China’s $1.2 T Surplus Fuels Massive Market Interventions
One by product of China's exploding external surplus (goods surplus of $1.2 trillion, q4 current account surplus annualized is close to $1 trillion) is that it creates the raw material for some massive intervention numbers h/t @Mike_Weilandt for the chart https://t.co/PMvhatfgWh
NYT Overlooks Money Growth, the Real Inflation Driver
The NYT credits cooling inflation to tariffs, housing, airfare, energy, & labor markets. But ignores money. Money growth has averaged 4%/yr over 2025 — far below the 6.3%/yr Golden Growth Rate, consistent with hitting the US's 2%/yr inflation target. https://t.co/tk42l7TVVZ
Ford Faces $900M Tariff Blow, Highlighting US Corporate Pain
Ford just disclosed an additional $900M tariff hit in its Q4 results. TARIFFS = BAD NEWS FOR AMERICAN CORPORATIONS. https://t.co/kau61WOizz
Argentina's Survival Hinges on IMF Loans, Not Reserves
And net reserves are still negative -- Argentina survived 2025 thanks to a $14b loan from the IMF and a willingness on the part of the IMF and the US to ignored missed reserve targets. Indeed, Argentina got another $20b backstop...
Potential Crisis Looms as Fed‑White House Tensions Rise
How ironic would it be if there were a market crisis event in the next few months while Powell is still at the helm of the Fed, requiring extreme Fed and White House/Treasury cooperation while those relations are as strained...
Broadening Value and Cyclical Rotation Driven by Fundamentals
We now have the longest and strongest breadth rotation in recent years. Notably, it’s the only rotation that has been propelled by broader macro and micro fundamentals rather than lower rates. We first recommended a broadening trade of value and...
Crude Swings on Hormuz Alert, US‑Iran Talks, Venezuela Relief
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📈📉Crude prices rise on Hormuz advisory before falling back on the prospect of longer US-Iran talks, with headlines dotted with a flurry of US sanctions relief on Venezuela’s oil sector. Summary below, link to full report in...
Trump Tariffs Add $1,300 Hidden Tax per Household
According to a new report by the Tax Foundation, Trump’s latest tariffs amount to a $1,300 hidden tax per household. US TARIFFS = A SALES TAX ON AMERICANS. https://t.co/w3pnoqPIdP