Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
TC Energy Tops Q4 Profit Estimate on Strong U.S. Natural Gas Demand
TC Energy reported fourth‑quarter earnings per share of US $0.72, beating the consensus estimate of $0.68, driven by record natural‑gas deliveries in both the United States and Canada. U.S. pipeline flows rose 9.5% YoY to 29.6 Bcf/d, while Canadian deliveries hit a new high of 33.2 Bcf. The company posted a 13% increase in comparable EBITDA and a 15% rise in segmented earnings, underscoring the impact of strong demand from data centres, coal‑to‑gas conversions and LNG exports.
European Rates: Scandinavian Rate Outlook – a Long Winter Hibernation
In this brief episode, J.P. Morgan analysts Francis Diamond and Frida Infante examine the current state and near‑term outlook for Swedish and Norwegian sovereign and corporate rate markets. They highlight that both countries are entering a prolonged period of low‑rate...
Pulse of the Street: Tech Rout, Muted Earnings Singe Indian Markets
Indian equities broke their recent rally as a broad technology sell‑off combined with mixed earnings commentary and profit‑taking pressured the benchmark indices. The IT sector led the decline, slipping sharply amid global chip‑maker weakness. Meanwhile, consumer‑focused stocks and a handful...
CPI Cool, but Data Gaps Mask True Inflation
The CPI data came in cooler than expected, which is always welcome. The headline is obscuring some of the underlying inflation due to the loss in data associated with the government shutdown. The overall index posted its coolest reading since...
Electronics Exporters Can Grab a Greater Share of the US, EU Markets: Niti Aayog Report
India’s electronics sector can tap a $1.6 trillion US‑EU market after the India‑EU free trade deal and a modest 18 % U.S. tariff, giving it a cost edge over China, Vietnam, Mexico and Thailand. Currently, India holds only about 1 % of the...
Damietta Waits in the Wings as Suez Reopening Threatens Fresh Med Congestion
The episode examines the launch of Egypt’s Damietta Alliance Container Terminals (DACT) and its potential role as a relief hub for Europe’s container supply chain as Suez Canal traffic resumes. It outlines the combined 5.5 million TEU of new capacity in...
Trump Says Change of Power in Iran Would Be 'Best Thing'
U.S. President Donald Trump publicly called for a regime change in Iran, saying it would be the "best thing that could happen," while dispatching a second aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, to the Middle East. The move intensifies U.S. military pressure...
Enbridge Books Record-High Core Earnings for 2025
Enbridge posted record‑high 2025 core earnings, reporting adjusted EBITDA of US$14.7 billion, a 7% increase over 2024, and a 9% rise in adjusted earnings. The fourth‑quarter adjusted EPS of US$0.65 topped analyst forecasts of US$0.56. The company credited expanding pipeline takeaway...
Denmark Records 292 Russian ‘Shadow Fleet’ Tankers Passing Through Danish Straits
New data from the Danish Maritime Authority shows that 292 EU‑sanctioned Russian tankers sailed through the Øresund, Great Belt and Skagerrak in 2025, confirming the Danish straits as a critical gateway for Russia’s shadow fleet. The fleet has expanded since...
Data Hints at First Post‑WWII US Soft Landing
After this week's employment & inflation data it is starting to look like the elusive soft landing may finally happen. Would be the first indisputable US post-WW II soft landing. We've had false hopes before dashed by the underlying economic dynamics &...
Market Views: Shipping and the Future World Trade Map
Rapid geopolitical shifts and evolving trade patterns are redefining global shipping routes, according to DNV’s Market Views episode hosted by Jakub Walenkiewicz with maritime‑insight CEO Christopher Pålsson. The discussion highlights how short‑term disruptions—such as sanctions, regional conflicts, and supply‑chain volatility—are...
Friday Reading List - 13 February 2026
This episode surveys a whirlwind of political and security developments across Latin America, focusing on Mexico’s fraught reforms under President Sheinbaum, the looming electoral shake‑ups in the region, and the resurgence of U.S. influence via Trump‑aligned policies. It highlights Mexico’s...
Atlantic Council to Host Inaugural US–Caribbean Maritime and Ports Forum in Miami
The Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, together with Florida International University, will host the inaugural US‑Caribbean Maritime and Ports Forum in Miami on February 20, 2026. The two‑hour event gathers senior government officials, port authorities, shipping executives and financiers to discuss...
Bonds Rally, Ignoring Surge in SuperCore CPI
Bonds rallied as the latest CPI data showed headline inflation just below forecasts and core inflation on target, pushing 10‑year Treasury yields down to 4.07%. Shelter costs continued to ease, with owners' equivalent rent hitting a cycle low. Meanwhile, the...
‘Selling in Germany Requires Consumer-Oriented Approach’
Germany’s e‑commerce market generated €83.1 billion last year, attracting cross‑border sellers. Andreas Giese of Dexport warns that German shoppers prioritize trust and deliberate decision‑making over impulse purchases. Success hinges on authentic social‑media content, user‑generated proof, and a mobile‑first brand website, while...
Bulgarian Central Bank Deputy Governor Appointed Prime Minister
President Iliana Iotova appointed suspended Bulgarian National Bank deputy governor Andrey Gurov as interim prime minister, invoking a constitutional rule that limits caretaker‑PM candidates to ten senior officials. Gurov’s selection follows an anti‑corruption finding that barred him from his central‑bank...
The Medical Device Industry: The Real Effects of Tariffs
The medical device sector is grappling with a wave of new and proposed tariffs that have lifted costs for metals, electronics, and finished components throughout global supply chains. Manufacturers must decide whether to absorb these higher expenses, pass them to...
Central Bank Rate Cuts of 100 Basis Points in Egypt and 50 BPS in Russia
The Central Bank of Egypt cut its policy rate by 100 basis points, bringing it down to 19.0% as inflation eases to 11.9% after a peak of 38% in 2023. The Bank of Russia trimmed its key rate by another...
Core CPI Spikes in January, Steadies at 2.5% Yearly
Core CPI inflation rose during the month of January. But it fell and was relatively muted over longer periods of time--although still some concern the numbers a bit lower due to shutdown-related quirks. Annual rates: 1 month: 3.3% 6 months: 2.5% 12 months: 2.5%
CPI Cools to 2.4%, Fed Eyes Jobs as Unemployment Falls
US #CPI inflation figures came in line with expectations of a pace cooling. Headline dropped from 2.7% to 2.4% while core eased 2.6% to 2.5%. This does shift priority towards employment in the Fed's dual mandate but the jobless rate...
THINK Ahead: Green Shoots or Just Weeds? What This Week’s Data Signals
Economists spot early signs of recovery in the US labor market, with private payrolls accelerating, yet underlying job quality remains thin. The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver two 25‑basis‑point cuts, likely in June and September, as inflation stays modest....
AI‑driven Spending Masked Recession; Recovery Now Emerging
With this week's jobs revisions, my framework of a main street recession happening last spring that was papered over by large AI capex and top percentile income earners spending like mad makes more sense. And now IMO we're coming out the...
Netherlands' 36% Unrealized Gains Tax Slashes Decade‑Long Wealth Growth
A new 36% unrealized gains tax passed in the Netherlands. This means assets that have increased in value are now taxed, even if not sold. See the devastating impact on wealth growth over 10 years. #CryptoTax #Netherlands #IvanClips https://t.co/OMzGMofQhw
IEA Dials Back Its Oversupply Warning After Winter Shocks
The International Energy Agency trimmed its 2026 oversupply warning after a surprise 1.2 million barrels‑per‑day supply drop caused by cold snaps in the United States and a power‑outage‑forced shutdown at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field. Europe’s gas inventories fell to just 35 % of...
Inflation Stays Low as Money Supply Grows Below Golden Rate
US's CPI inflation rate comes in at 2.4%/yr in January. The US money supply (M2) has been growing BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~6.3%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting the Fed's 2%/yr inflation target, since April 2022. THE INFLATION STORY =...
S&P Erases Almost All 2026 Gains Amid AI Hype
Forget Trump's AI HYPE. The S&P Index has now given up nearly all its 2026 gains. https://t.co/GAL0TbU7KG
Why North Korea Is Unlikely to Renew Cooperation at Kaesong
The Kaesong Industrial Complex, once a flagship of inter‑Korean economic cooperation, has remained closed since South Korea halted operations in 2016. South Korean officials are now urging a restart, but the Kim Jong Un regime shows little appetite to revive the site....
Bloomberg's Russia Dollar Rumor Likely Misleading, Says Hanke
Yesterday, Bloomberg reported that Russia is considering a re-entry into the US dollar system. Bloomberg's report created quite a stir. RELAX, HANKE'S 95% RULE = 95% OF WHAT YOU READ IN THE PRESS IS EITHER WRONG OR IRRELEVANT. https://t.co/8E7OK7Zm1t
January 2026 Defies Post‑COVID Seasonal Inflation Surge
Ever since COVID, the start of the year has seen hot inflation prints, because residual seasonality pushed up inflation in the first quarter. That isn't the case in Jan. '26 and I think that holds a warning for those forecasting...
MSC Extends Dominance as Container Fleet Surpasses 7.2 Million TEU
Geneva‑based Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) has pushed its container capacity beyond 7.2 million TEU, cementing its lead as the world’s largest carrier with a 21.4 % share of the global fleet. The company now operates 980 vessels, 727 owned and 253 chartered,...
Tariffs Drove Inflation; Rate Now Irrelevant, CPI Lagging
The scary part is tariffs HAVE increased inflation. The lagging and imputed portions of CPI are the only remaining sources of inflation. We may get a hit from oil some day, but inflation RATE is no longer the problem. And...
AI Hype Isn’t Boosting Profit Margins Across the Economy
If AI were living up to its hype, it would be benefiting the ENTIRE ECONOMY. IT ISN'T. Profit margins outside the tech sector would be growing. THEY'RE NOT. https://t.co/GXT1r783t0
US Inflation Benign With One Glaring Caveat
The latest U.S. inflation report appears modest, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ decision to assign a zero year‑over‑year change to housing components that were not surveyed during the recent government shutdown artificially depresses the CPI reading. This methodological adjustment...
Inflation Still Stubborn: CPI 2.8%, Core 3.2%
FWIW, since the first "clean" CPI in November (post shutdown), headline CPI inflation is 2.8% annualized and core is 3.2% annualized. Neither suggests much stepdown yet in underlying inflation.
Inflation Misses Again; Labor Market Holds Real Power
🚨 Inflation just missed expectations. Again - Dollar dumping - Gold buying the dip - Stocks pumping on rate cut hopes ⚠️ But don't get comfortable - the labor market is the real story https://t.co/hpBwuiWtK4
What Colby’s Northeast Asia Tour Tells Us About the Future of Japan-Korea-US Trilateral Deterrence
U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby toured Japan and South Korea in late January, reinforcing the Pentagon’s new National Defense Strategy that prioritises deterrence‑by‑denial along the First Island Chain. The visits highlighted Washington’s push for allies to shoulder...
Political Gridlock Stalls $22B US EV Investment
"Last year companies canceled $22 billion in planned investments in electric vehicle manufacturing, batteries or critical minerals in the United States...." Political sustainability limits industrial policy efficacy. https://t.co/RROrBFwACq
US Inflation Details Offer Room for Deeper Fed Rate Cuts
U.S. consumer price inflation in January eased to 0.2% month‑on‑month, with core CPI matching expectations at 0.3% and both headline and core year‑on‑year rates falling to four‑year lows of 2.4% and 2.5%. Goods prices excluding food and energy were flat,...
No Evidence BLS Data Manipulation; Accusations Hinder Discourse
There is ZERO evidence that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is manipulating the data, not the CPI, not payrolls earlier this week. I am not being naive and people are watching carefully for signs of tampering. Such accusations now are harmful...
Crises Everywhere, but the Markets Don’t Seem to Mind
Despite a cascade of wars, pandemics, social unrest and economic strain, global equity markets are soaring, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average breaking the 50,000 mark. The article argues that this disconnect is not a glitch but a structural feature:...
Maersk, Eurogate Plan €1 Billion Bet on Zero-Emission Bremerhaven Container Hub
Maersk’s APM Terminals and Germany’s Eurogate are negotiating a partnership that could inject up to €1 billion into Bremerhaven’s North Sea Terminal. The funding aims to fully electrify the site, power it with renewables and lift capacity from 3 million to 4 million...
AI Spending Lifts some Assets, Hurts Major Stock Valuations
The AI capex boom is absolutely stimulative to *certain* assets in the ecosystem and supply chain, but that won't be Mag7 stock prices from here. Revenue growth is slowing, input prices rising and you can connect the dots on what...
Banks' Inflation Forecasts Politicized, Yield Soft Surprises
Another SOFT inflation surrpise... It has become a bit of a theme, and we are increasingly convinced that inflation forecasting has become a "politicized arena" within banks, given how incredibly stubborn they have been in their wrong lean on this.
EUR/GBP Bounces From Daily Lows as Eurozone GDP Supports the Euro
Eurozone preliminary GDP showed a 0.3 % QoQ rise in Q4 2025, matching expectations and nudging annual growth to 1.4 %. The United Kingdom posted a weaker 0.1 % QoQ increase, missing forecasts and pulling annual growth to 1 %. The data lifted the...
Soft US Inflation Sparks Dollar Slide, Yield Drop, Gold Rise
📉 Softer US Inflation - Markets React 🔻 Softer US inflation numbers 🔻 USD tumbling 🔻 10-year yield falling ⬆️ Gold rising ⬆️ Stocks rallying 📊 CPI Breakdown: • MoM: 0.2% actual vs 0.3% forecast • YoY: 2.5% actual vs 2.5% forecast (2.7% previous)
US January CPI +2.4% Y/Y vs +2.5% Expected
U.S. consumer price index for January rose 2.4% year‑over‑year, missing the 2.5% consensus, while month‑over‑month inflation eased to 0.2% against an expected 0.3%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, held steady at 2.5% y/y and 0.3% m/m, in line...
With Competitors Hot on Its Heels, How Can Singapore's Port Stay the Course?
Singapore’s port recorded a historic 3.22 billion gross tonnes of vessel arrivals and 44.66 million TEUs in 2025, marking 3.5% and 8.6% growth respectively over 2024. The hub remains second only to Shanghai, with Ningbo‑Zhoushan closing the gap, while contributing roughly 7%...
January Spike: Core CPI Gains Outpace Typical Inflation
JANUARY EFFECT, or “Why this inflation report matters more than others” Since the start of 2022, core CPI has risen 0.45% month-on-month in January, versus an average of 0.33% for all months.
Seasonal Peaks Fail to Lift Airfreight as Rates Mirror Past Years
The episode examines why seasonal peaks, especially the pre‑Chinese New Year rush, failed to boost air‑freight rates in 2026, with global spot rates matching those of 2024 and 2025 despite differing holiday windows. Forwarders and industry experts, including Lana Radzina of...
Trump Backs Off as Treasury Market Wobbles, Risk Premium Spikes
One constant in the Trump administration is that - when the Treasury market wobbles - it backs down. That happened on China in Apr. '25 and again on Greenland recently. 10y10y forward yield remains near its highs, even as 10y...