Today's Global Economy Pulse

Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.

Turkey’s Current Account Deficit Remains on a Widening Track
Turkey posted a December current‑account deficit of $7.3 bn, well above the $5.3 bn forecast, pushing the 12‑month rolling deficit to $25.2 bn (about 1.8 % of GDP). The gap widened mainly because the trade balance slipped to a $‑7.4 bn deficit and primary‑income balances deteriorated, although lower energy and gold imports softened the impact. On the capital side, inflows stalled at $2.1 bn, forcing official reserves to shrink by $4.1 bn as resident outflows of $7 bn were only partially offset by $9 bn of non‑resident inflows. Analysts expect a modest further widening of the current account this year while capital inflows remain sluggish.

Splash Wrap: The Week in Shipping in 233 Words
The Pentagon intercepted a tanker suspected of moving Venezuelan oil, underscoring Washington’s aggressive stance on illicit exports. Vanuatu warned users about a fake registry website, while Cameroon suspended new shadow‑fleet registrations and began deregistering existing vessels. In the tech arena,...

Both the Number of New Workforce and Jobs Stagnant in Korea, Reports Indicate
South Korea faces a looming labor shortage as its economically active population is projected to grow only 0.46% by 2034, creating a gap of roughly 1.22 million workers. Despite the demand for an additional 54,000 workers per year through 2029 and...

Africa's GDP Race Tightens as Economic Interdependence Deepens
Africa’s five largest economies are now separated by razor‑thin margins, with South Africa’s $401.6 bn GDP barely outpacing Egypt’s $399.5 bn. Nigeria remains third at $334.3 bn but its ranking is highly sensitive to exchange‑rate swings. Algeria and Morocco round out the top...

Rates Spark: Dutch Pension Funds May Prepare Early for 2027 Transitions
Almost €1 trillion of Dutch pension assets are slated to transition by 2027, but early hedge rebalancing has already begun. Smaller funds moved interest‑rate hedges in December 2025, while larger players like PMT and PFZW are timing their flows for the first...

China Merchants to Restart Wuhan Qingshan Shipyard
China Merchants Shipbuilding Industry Group announced the full restart of its long‑dormant Wuhan Qingshan shipyard in 2026, reviving a facility that ceased new‑building in 2018. The 113‑hectare river‑front yard, equipped with a 2,200‑metre wharf, will focus on small and medium‑sized...

Reeves Urged to Reassure MPs over Public Finances Amid £6bn-a-Year Send Costs
Rachel Reeves faces mounting pressure to reassure MPs as the UK’s special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) programme costs rise to about £6 billion a year. The Office for Budget Responsibility warns that an £18 billion backlog could erode the fiscal surplus...

Maran Dry Returns to Newbuilds with Capesize Order at Hengli
Maran Dry, the bulk carrier arm of Angelicoussis Shipping, has placed an order for four new capesize vessels at Hengli Heavy Industry’s Dalian yard, with options that could expand the deal to six ships. This marks the company’s first new‑build...
Singaporeans to Get Nearly $400 in Vouchers, up to $316 in Cash as Cost-of-Living Support
Singapore's 2026 budget introduces a Cost‑of‑Living Special Payment, granting eligible adults up to S$400 cash and providing every household with S$500 in Community Development Council vouchers. The cash payout targets citizens earning up to S$100,000 and owning no more than...

Asia Week Ahead: Key Growth Data From Japan
Japan is set to publish key macro data next week, including Q4 2025 GDP, export figures, and inflation. Analysts forecast a modest 0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter GDP rebound after a 0.6% contraction, driven by recovering construction and strong semiconductor exports. Inflation is expected...

Oceanbird Lands First Commercial Order
Oceanbird, the Alfa Laval–Wallenius joint venture, announced its first commercial sale, delivering two Wing 560 wing sails for retrofit in Europe slated for early 2027. The order fills the initial production slots, shifting Oceanbird from prototype demonstrations to a commercial rollout. The...

Singapore Mulls Keeping Carbon Tax at Low End of Target
Singapore’s finance minister said the city‑state may keep its carbon tax near the low end of the $50‑80 per tonne range slated for 2030, after noting a slowdown in global climate momentum. The current levy sits at S$45 (~$35.60) per tonne, already...

Asia’s Bitumen Shift: Trade Flows, Freight, and Future Demand
The episode examines how shifting trade flows, tighter vessel availability, and rising freight costs are reshaping the global bitumen market in 2026, especially for Asian importers. It highlights a surge in Chinese bitumen exports that are undercutting traditional suppliers to...

IMO Ramps Up Campaign to Close Flag State "Enforcement Gap"
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has launched a two‑year campaign to narrow the enforcement gap that allows a shadow fleet of sanctions‑busting tankers to operate under weak flag‑state oversight. By leveraging its Member State Audit Scheme (IMSAS), the agency will...

Weekend Edition: From Dairy to Data: Can NZ Outgrow Australia’s Shadow?
In this episode, Phil and NAB’s Ray Attrill dissect the widening gap between New Zealand and Australia as AI‑driven investment costs strain US markets and commodity prices slide, while the Aussie dollar weakens below 71 cents. They explore how rising AI spending,...

The Panama Canal and The U.S. Grains & BioProducts Council Sign MoU
The Panama Canal and the U.S. Grains & BioProducts Council (USGBC) signed a Memorandum of Understanding to boost the flow of U.S. agricultural exports through the canal. The agreement focuses on improving efficiency, reliability and sustainability of grain shipments, with...

The Industry Blind Spot that Lets Crew Suffering Escalate
Shipping consultant Frank Coles warns that seafarers face systemic abuse hidden by the industry’s self‑regulation. Crew members endure long contracts, limited shore leave, and mental‑health strain while owners chase cheap labor across weak‑law jurisdictions. Regulatory bodies draft safety rules but...

CNOOC Targets 40% Offshore Wind Capacity Ramp up in 2026
China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) announced a 40% increase in offshore wind capacity for 2026, targeting 3.5 GW of installed power. The expansion, executed with turbine maker Ming Yang Smart Energy, will roll out advanced turbines across southern provinces. Falling costs...
Malaysia’s Population Growth Slows to 0.6% in Q4 2025
Malaysia’s fourth‑quarter 2025 demographic report shows population growth decelerating to 0.6%, reaching 34.3 million. Live births fell 5.4% while the elderly share rose to 8.0%, indicating an ageing trend. Labour demand grew 1.8% to 9.21 million jobs, the strongest since Q1 2024, with...
Appointment to the Monetary Policy Board
The Reserve Bank of Australia announced that Professor Bruce Preston has been appointed to the Monetary Policy Board, effective immediately. Preston brings a distinguished academic record and extensive experience in public‑policy economics. Governor Michele Bullock also thanked outgoing board member...
Trump’s Iran Remarks, Not IEA, Drive Oil Slump
A bit of a stretch, attributing crude’s slump on Thursday to the #IEA report. If the market thought a 4 million b/d glut would cushion any supply disruption/shock, including the one posed by current US-Iran tensions, Brent would not have been...

US AI Sell‑off Drags Japan, Korea From Record Highs
Tech, AI-related selling in US having early impact on Japan -1.6% and S Korea -0.7% stock markets. Both coming off record highs. Spore was also at record high yesterday. Some negative headlines.

2026-02-13: India-US Interim Trade Deal Sparks Opposition Protests and Political Criticism
The episode examines the India‑US interim trade agreement, which has moved from a tariff announcement to a flashpoint in India’s February 2026 budget session. Opposition parties are framing the pact as a “trap deal,” launching parliamentary attacks and street protests...
Distinguish Inefficiency From Global Uncompetitiveness in EU Manufacturing
1/7 My latest piece was written for friends who are EU policymakers or advisors. In it I argue that there is a difference between an inefficient manufacturing sector and a globally uncompetitive manufacturing sector. We shouldn't conflate the two. https://t.co/qer7BAvgnc

Poland's Per‑capita GDP Eclipses Germany, Fueling Assertiveness
Poland’s GDP per capita OUTPACES Germany’s by a country mile. This growth gap is why Poland is flexing its muscles and pushing Germany around. https://t.co/78SQLlNP3o

China Mulls Blowing Aussie Property Into Space
Prominent Chinese economists Miao Yanliang and Ju Jiandong have called for easing capital controls, arguing that the current weakening U.S. dollar and a strengthening yuan present a rare opportunity to increase the currency’s value abroad. They describe 2023 and 2024...

ECB Still Assessing Full Effects of Euro Appreciation
ECB has yet to see full impact of euro appreciation, Kazaks says https://t.co/qqisWsfsJD via @aaroneglitis @Skolimowski https://t.co/TTDxRGmgMY

CBRT Hikes 2026 Inflation Outlook, Policy Stays Too Loose
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: In the first Inflation Report of 2026, CBRT Gov. Fatih Karahan revised the end-2026 inflation forecast from 13–19% to 15–21%. Turkey's monetary policy remains TOO LOOSE. https://t.co/EC5mR04dt6

Exim Bank Offers B50bn Lifeline to Ailing Exporters
The Export‑Import Bank of Thailand unveiled a 50‑billion‑baht working‑capital facility to shore up exporters’ liquidity amid heightened global volatility. President Charat Rattanaboonniti said the bank will also provide export and foreign‑exchange insurance while urging firms to hedge currency risk with...

Turkey's 30% Inflation Threatens Global TV Drama Boom
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: In January, Turkey's official inflation was reported at 30.7%/yr. That's SIX TIMES HIGHER than the CBRT’s 5%/yr inflation target. Among other things, Turkey’s sky-high inflation is squeezing its famous TV dramas, which draw crowds of 1 billion+ worldwide. https://t.co/nr4JytEGeV
State Firms Snap up Foreclosed Homes, Easing Oversupply
1/2 Reuters: "Chinese state-owned companies are buying foreclosed property projects, in a sign that long-promised government efforts to reduce massive oversupply in the crisis-hit housing sector are finally getting traction, albeit at a slow pace." https://t.co/Nk0gtgJVgr

Pilbara Killer Rises
The MacroBusiness note observes that the U.S. dollar index (DXY) halted its decline amid political headlines, while the Australian dollar stayed firm despite broader risk aversion. Beijing is expected to intervene to limit further yuan gains, and the resilience of...
PE Firms Chase Japan’s Retail Wealth Amid Institutional Decline
Our story on PE giants like Blackstone, KKR, EQT's attempt to tap Japan's wealthy retail investors for funds as institutional money wanes. Most see Japan as the largest private wealth opportunity outside of the US, but the market comes with...

China's Three-Year Deflation Signals Weak Money Supply
China is in the grip of a DEFLATION. In January, its Producer Price Index (PPI) was NEGATIVE at -1.42%/yr. If that's not bad enough, China's PPI has been negative for 3 STRAIGHT YEARS. DEFLATION = AN ANEMIC MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH STORY. https://t.co/HJkJ55fGfN

PETER’S ASIAN BUSINESS & FINANCE BRIEFING – Friday 13 February 2026, 06:00 Hong Kong
The episode covers four major Asian market stories: Singapore’s 2026 budget under Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, which projects a surplus, boosts AI investment, and offers household cost‑of‑living credits; the political fallout in the US as the House votes to overturn...
January Home Prices Slip Across All Chinese City Tiers
Xinhua: In four first-tier cities and 31 second-tier cities, the average month-on-month price declines in January were 0.3% for new homes and 0.5% for resold homes, while prices in 35 third-tier cities fell 0.4% for new homes and 0.6% for...
Higher CPI May Keep Fed From Cutting Rates, Threatening Stocks
Are stock markets in trouble if US CPI data points the Fed away from bolder interest rate cuts? #stockmarkets #CPI #Fed #DOLLAR #macro #trading https://t.co/2Ij9Tr0kWM

US Aims to Process Critical Minerals in Brazil
The United States is actively negotiating with Brazil to develop processing capacity for heavy rare earths, leveraging financing from the Development Finance Corporation. Recent DFC investments have backed the Serra Verde and Aclara rare‑earth projects, which together aim to boost...
US Must Secure Mineral Sources, Not Just Funding
You can’t stockpile what you don’t control. The easy part is $12 billion from the Trump Adminstration. The hard part is finding the mines, processing & pricing. Washington needs to build alliances instead of burning them. https://t.co/JfhrJs5VnH #CriticalMinerals #Geopolitics #China #SupplyChains #EnergyTransition #Mining #USPolicy
Shipping Decarbonizes Regardless of U.S. Policy Shifts
Shipping is decarbonizing with or without Washington. Capital has already committed: dual-fuel vessels dominate orderbooks, and investment decisions are being driven by EU rules, port levies, and future-proofing U.S. politics comes & goes https://t.co/LBSLcVd8Xn #Shipping #IMO #Decarbonization #EnergyTransition #ESG #Maritime #ClimatePolicy

James Zimmerman on How the US and China Can Make 2026 a ‘Year of Vision’
James Zimmerman has resumed his role as chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, bringing nearly three decades of on‑the‑ground experience. He argues that the anticipated Trump‑Xi meetings in 2026 present a rare chance to pivot bilateral relations...
Photo Op Won’t Revive Venezuela’s Oil Without Real Investment Conditions
You don’t revive Venezuela’s oil sector by touring dilapidated fields @SecretaryWright This is a pointless photo op Tell us about restoring conditions in which companies would risk capital to revive oil production. Otherwise, keep the photos on your phone #EnergyPolicy #Venezuela #OilMarkets #Geopolitics...

Inflation‑adjusted Dollar
A pet peeve. Talk about current dollar weakness. Numbers here are through December -- but in December the broad inflation adjusted dollar was stronger than in 01 or 02, the peak before 22-24 1/ https://t.co/c7KU9z1C6t

CPI Near 5‑Year Low: Trade Nasdaq Move Live
🔴 TOMORROW: US CPI drops at 8:30 AM Core forecast at a near 5-year low. Hot print → Nasdaq dumps Cool print → Rate cuts back on the table Either way, there's a trade to be made. Join me LIVE at 8AM ET to...

Gold Surge Signals Capital Shift, Not Risk‑On Rally
Record gold prices + a weakening dollar don’t scream “risk-on.” They signal global capital reallocation and rising demand for insurance amid lingering policy uncertainty. Hedging behavior is increasing even as equities grind higher.

January CPI Likely Spikes Amid Data Gaps
Tomorrow is CPI for January. It's a month that has burned us repeatedly -- core CPI inflation (month-over-month) tends to pick up in January. Consensus forecast has a pickup *but* we do not have a clear sense of the...
Call Centers Signal AI‑Driven Job Crisis Ahead
A good canary in the coal mine for AI-caused job loss will be call centers. We're currently projecting ~2.75M call center jobs in the US in 2026. In 2016 it was ~2.63M. The global call center market size has grown...

Cuba's Socialist Crisis Drives 46% Inflation, Fourth Globally
#CubaWatch🇨🇺: Cuba’s socialist disaster produces an inflation rate of 46%/yr. That makes Cuba the WORLD’S FOURTH-HIGHEST INFLATOR. I remain the only reliable source of inflationary measures in Cuba. https://t.co/tNgaFALVro

US Midwest Aluminum Premium Hits Record $1.03 per Pound
"Aluminum prices in the US have been rising faster than global prices for much of this past year because of tariffs. The so-called US Midwest premium...climbed to an all-time high of $1.03 a pound on Wednesday" https://t.co/lVUj91ooyh https://t.co/lIKmsxcJem
Tariffs Won’t Drive Reindustrialization Without Consistent Policy
Its a warning shot to people who think tariffs are going to secure reindustrialization. Is it sustainable? Industrial policy can't be on and off and work.