Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
James Zimmerman on How the US and China Can Make 2026 a ‘Year of Vision’
James Zimmerman has resumed his role as chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, bringing nearly three decades of on‑the‑ground experience. He argues that the anticipated Trump‑Xi meetings in 2026 present a rare chance to pivot bilateral relations toward a shared, long‑term vision. Zimmerman stresses that a visionary agenda could ease regulatory friction and unlock significant trade potential. His perspective underscores the chamber’s role as a bridge between U.S. businesses and Chinese policymakers.
Call Centers Signal AI‑Driven Job Crisis Ahead
A good canary in the coal mine for AI-caused job loss will be call centers. We're currently projecting ~2.75M call center jobs in the US in 2026. In 2016 it was ~2.63M. The global call center market size has grown...
“Liberation Day” Interpreted Through the Lens of the Benchmark Revision
The latest benchmark revision of the All‑Employees Total Nonfarm Vintage index reveals that post‑Liberation Day employment figures are weaker than previously reported, especially for August. The revised data shows a sharper decline during months associated with tariff policies, while months...
Mexican Ships Deliver Food and Supplies to Cuba as Island Faces U.S. Fuel Supply Crackdown
Mexico dispatched two flag‑registered vessels to Havana, delivering over 814 tons of food and essential supplies amid a U.S. crackdown on oil shipments to the island. The aid, loaded in Veracruz, includes dairy, meat, grains, canned fish and hygiene items, arriving...
Software Short‑squeeze Looms as Consumer Staples Pull Back
Whose ready for the short-squeeze in software over the next week because the 26 year-old analysts at the multi-platform funds convinced their PM's to go max short? Then we'll get the Consumer Staples pullback at the same time, when all the...
CK Hutchison Escalates Legal Battle Over Panama Ports Ruling
CK Hutchison Holdings has invoked a bilateral investment treaty as Panama’s Supreme Court moves to deem the 1997 law that underpins its Balboa and Cristóbal terminal concessions unconstitutional. The pending ruling threatens to make the ports’ operations illegal, prompting the...
S&P500 Sees Unprecedented Daily 7% Drops, Echoing Dotcom Crash
Wild market. We haven't seen anything like this since the dotcom bubble burst. Over the last 8 sessions, 115 stocks in the S&P 500 have decline 7% or more in a single day. The average drawdown when that happens is...
Ecommerce Trends: How Retailers Say They View Tariffs in 2026
In 2025 U.S. tariffs pushed up prices for online retailers, but by 2026 companies such as Costco and Wayfair are signalling cautious confidence that the shock has faded. The IMF now projects stronger global growth for 2025‑26, while a pending...
Silver Stalls Below 75; Inflation Data Could Spark Metal Rally
$SLV having big trouble getting above 75.00 again...which still won't be enough to restore confidence. Big inflation report ahead...precious metals may see a big reaction.
Bitcoin's Record Low vs Gold Signals Buying Opportunity
#Bitcoin is currently on the lowest valuation ever vs. Gold. Some people might say that this is the end of Bitcoin. Others might argue that the markets are actually going to turn around from here. If you look at the macroeconomic landscape and...
IEA Lowers 2026 Oil Demand Forecast on Economic Uncertainty, Higher Prices
The International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 850,000 barrels per day, down from a previous estimate amid heightened economic uncertainty and rising crude prices. Demand gains will come entirely from non‑OECD economies, with...
Gold Dip After NFP Profit‑take, Still Bullish Long‑term
GOLD ( XAUUSD ) just dumped over a 1000 pips after yesterday's NFP , but what just happened ? 👇 Netanyanho signalled towards de-escalation in the middle east with a potential deal b/w Iran & US This optimistic headlines lead to a...
From Labor to Compute: Economy’s Next Quantum Leap
1900: Internal Combustion + Electricity = 5x GDP growth. 2026: AGI + Humanoid Robotics + Space-based Energy = 50x GDP growth. This is NOT a cycle; instead, we are in a phase change for the species. The transition from being...
Chinese Zinc and Lead Smelters Rely on Byproducts in 2026
Chinese zinc and lead smelters are increasingly dependent on by‑product revenues as tight imported concentrate supplies compress primary treatment charge margins. Silver, sulfuric acid, copper and gold now provide critical income streams, offsetting low zinc and lead TCs projected for...
SOLS: Cheap US Uranium Conversion Monopoly Amid Global Shortage
Thread(1/2) 🧵 We put our SOLS long thesis above the paywall in our Atoms vs. Bits primer yesterday, so I’m also going to summarize for all you degenerates on X. The story is simple: the uranium trade has resulted in nearly every...
Will Bonds Outperform Stocks in 2026? Why the Timing Might Be Right To Double Down on Bonds.
Bond ETFs are poised to challenge equity returns in 2026 as central banks move from aggressive tightening to policy normalization. The Invesco Equal Weight 0‑30 Year Treasury ETF (GOVI) offers a diversified, lower‑volatility alternative to the long‑duration iShares 20+ Year...
MacroVoices #519 Alex Gurevich: The Next Perfect Trade
Alex Gurevich joins Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna on MacroVoices to outline his outlook for fixed‑income markets and the broader macro environment. He argues that the Federal Reserve will keep a restrictive policy stance into 2026, keeping inflation pressures in...
Headline Inflation Cools, Core CPI Accelerates in January
Wall Street expects a cooler month for headline inflation but a hotter month for core in January Headline CPI: 0.26% m/m, 2.5% y/y (down from 0.31% m/m and 2.7% y/y in December) Core CPI: 0.34% m/m, 2.5% y/y (core m/m accelerating from...
Tariffs Fail Without Consensus, Chaos Undermines Industrial Policy
The problem with "give tariffs time" as a plan is that they have been implemented in a way that won't stand up to courts, there is not a bipartisan consensus supporting them, and voters hate them now because they have...
Commerce Releases Final AD/CVD Amounts in Battery Anode Case
The U.S. Department of Commerce issued final antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) rates for Chinese active anode material (AAM). AD margins remain at 93.5% for major exporters and 102.72% for others, while CVD rates settle around 66.86% for most...
PQ: Global Ad Spend Will Climb 8.8%, Composite Rises Three-Tenths Of A Point
PQ Media’s 2026 Global Advertising & Marketing Spending Forecast projects worldwide ad spend to climb 8.8% and total marketing spend to rise 9.8% this year. The new data have been incorporated into MediaPost’s composite forecast, lifting the average industry growth...
Declines in Health and Education in Poor Countries ‘Harming Earning Potential’
The World Bank reports that human capital—health, education and workplace learning—has declined in 86 of 129 low‑ and middle‑income countries between 2010 and 2025, threatening future earnings. Children born today could earn about 51 percent more over their lifetimes if their...
Global Wealth Shift: US Cuts, Overseas Gains Ahead
A Massive Global Wealth Transfer Is Coming Americans will consume less, the rest of the world more. Capital is flowing overseas. This isn’t a crisis, it’s a wealth transfer — and there are winners if you know where to look. PeterSchiff #Economy...
Russia, China Shape Western Leaders' Strategic Decisions
This is not about rhetoric. This is about influence that changes outcomes. This piece explores how Russia and China have shaped the thinking and incentives of Western political leaders in ways that matter strategically. If you want to understand why Western policy sometimes...
Slower Data. Slower Morning
The bond market’s recent volatility, sparked by a strong jobs report, has calmed after this morning’s modest jobless‑claims data. Claims rose to 227,000, slightly above the 222,000 forecast but below the prior 232,000 level. With the CPI release looming, traders...
Older Americans Hold 70% Wealth, Drive Consumer Spending
The least productive part of our economy keeps getting wealthier...If you have a larger balance sheet you've relatively benefitted because of continuous gov't support, while labor has been shoved in a locker. Whatever happened to the party of labor?? hmm🧐🧐 "About 30%...
Steepening Yield Curve Could Shift QE Benefits to Main Street
How might the Fed/Treasury do that? One possibility is to cut short rates to steepen the yield curve, and deregulate the banks into buying the long end so that the Fed’s balance sheet can be “privatized.” If those QE assets...
US Midwest Aluminum Premium Hits Record $1.03 per Pound
"Aluminum prices in the US have been rising faster than global prices for much of this past year because of tariffs. The so-called US Midwest premium...climbed to an all-time high of $1.03 a pound on Wednesday" https://t.co/lVUj91ooyh https://t.co/lIKmsxcJem
Tariffs Won’t Drive Reindustrialization Without Consistent Policy
Its a warning shot to people who think tariffs are going to secure reindustrialization. Is it sustainable? Industrial policy can't be on and off and work.
Tight Credit Spreads, Fast‑Food Struggles, Tariff Burden Revealed
🆓 Thursday links: tight credit spreads, fast food woes, and who is paying the cost of tariffs. https://t.co/NOuKmm78S8 image: https://t.co/Lhs7cz5vWL https://t.co/nj3y6g7t8i
Trump’s Policies Projected to Add $1.4 Trillion Deficit
Congress’ fiscal watchdog, the CBO, has just indicated that Trump’s fiscal policies will add $1.4 tn to the US deficit over the next decade. US GOVERNMENT SPENDING IS OUT OF CONTROL. https://t.co/BZNx1n4jtt
Tie US Aid to Venezuela Publishing Detailed
Secretary Wright, the only way to save Venezuela's oil industry—and I say this as an entirely disinterested party—is to tie any US support to reqs that the VZ oil ministry publicly publish regular, detailed oil industry statistics Simple bulk CSV file...
Ford Repurposes Idle Plant for Batteries Amid Market Growth
Ford is going to try to make a go at batteries in its idled plant. I find it hard to be optimistic about that, but it's at least a growing market https://t.co/37Ns45bbLE
China’s Surplus Outpaces Europe, IMF View Outdated
The IMF's standard way of talking about global trade and payment imbalances tends to view Europe and China similarly -- but that is now out of date. China's reported surplus will top $700b in 2025, the euro area's surplus...
Venezuela Leads This Week's Hyperinflation, Followed by Iran, North Korea
#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 701.6%/yr 🇮🇷Iran — 82.9%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 74.6%/yr 🇨🇺Cuba — 46.0%/yr 🇱🇾Libya — 45.6%/yr https://t.co/ghPM730D4X
U.S. Interest Costs Set to Double by 2036
By 2036, the U.S. will spend $2.14 TRILLION a year on interest payments, versus just $1 trillion today. U.S. taxpayers are being taken to the cleaners. They’re paying for yesterday’s government largesse and receiving nothing for it. https://t.co/xMUu3S9H8I
EXPD Faces Biggest Sell‑Off Since 1998 Crisis
Worst sell-off in this logistics/tech company since 1998 (LTCM & Russian Debt Crisis) $EXPD Bigger than Tariffs, March 2020, 2008. AI Fears https://t.co/pSckCN9oYm
Biden's Trade Deficit Slightly Lower than Trump's, Not 78% Drop
So, for the record: The trade deficit in the first 11 months of the Trump administration was $839.5B. In the same period in 2024, the final Biden year, it was $806.6B. And if you think this year's performance is a...
GBP/USD Poised for Breakout After Coiling Below Resistance
British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Coils Below Resistance- Breakout to Set the Trend https://t.co/YCL1AwKRyY $GBPUSD Weekly Chart https://t.co/VuEneX3o2g
Trump Tariffs Backfire as China Shifts to New Markets
US tariffs were supposed to punish China. Instead, China pivoted away from the US and made friends and commerce with non-U.S. buyers. TRUMP’S TARIFFS = BACKFIRED. https://t.co/oibXA4xbmF
U.S. Corn Exports Surge 52% Beyond 2020 Levels
🌽U.S. corn export sales for 2025/26 are nearing 61 million metric tons (2.4 billion bushels). Early Feb sales in 2020/21 were similarly massive but heavily skewed by China. Non-China 2025/26 corn sales are 52% larger than at this point in 2020/21!
Domestic Sales and Exports Aren't Comparable Economic Metrics
It is ignored because it is misleading to compare in country sales (generated by Chinese production for sale to Chinese buyers) to exports (goods produced in one country for sale in another). Firms and countries are different economic concepts
China Eases Capital Controls as Asset Buildup Accelerates
China usually liberalizes its financial account when the PBOC (now the state banks) are accumulating assets at too rapid a pace, and it wans the dollar risk to be taken by others ... 1/2
East Asia Drives Surging Trade Surplus, Currencies Remain Cheap
Bingo And the global trade surplus (ex pharma) is now primarily in China, Taiwan and Korea ... Important qualification to the now standard argument the dollar has gotten weaker (which is true primarily if the clock starts at the end of 24,...
EURCHF Plummets to Record Lows, Yield Gaps Irrelevant
Another FX PSA: $EURCHF has extended its generational slide lower to fresh record lows. Yield differentials don't matter at all here apparently: https://t.co/cHMUxde914
US Energy Secretary Visits Venezuela's Orinoco Oil Belt
Well, I admit that if you have asked me three months ago, certainly I didn't have the following on my 2026 bingo card: "... US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright tours the Orinoco oil belt in Venezuela with the US-installed Venezuelan...
Excess Wealth vs Limited Cash Fuels Asset Bubbles
Wealth isn’t worth anything unless it can be converted into money to spend. And when there’s a lot of wealth relative to the amount of hard money available — like we’re seeing today — bubbles are created. @nikhilkamathcio https://t.co/iBiRkkv7Ok
Gold Lacks Earnings; Overvalued Compared to Commodities
I managed the largest gold fund in USA. Here's the truth: Stocks have "babies" (earnings). Gold has NO babies. 🍼 Gold's at historic extreme vs. oil/soybeans. You're crazy if you think gold's gonna outperform inflation - @BergMilton https://t.co/bNqmCOVYCt https://t.co/7NJ9NoBZCx
Global Equities Surge Far Beyond S&P 2025
Since the start of 2025: S&P 500 +19.5% European stocks +45.3% Emerging markets +50.8% Asian stocks +55.9% https://t.co/lrZrKKIC4x
Dollar Regime Flip: Strong Data Now Weaken Currency
Something big is going on with the Dollar. In the past decade, strong data have pushed the Dollar up, but that isn't what happened yesterday. We're going back to the regime that prevailed before, whereby strong data push the Dollar...