Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
US CPI Data Expected to Show a Mild Decline in Inflation in January
U.S. consumer price index data for January showed annual inflation easing to 2.4% from 2.7% in December, missing the 2.5% market forecast. Monthly CPI rose 0.2% and core CPI remained at 2.5% year‑over‑year, matching expectations. The softer headline number nudged the USD index lower, with the yen posting the biggest weekly gain against the greenback. Analysts see the reading as a potential catalyst for future Federal Reserve rate‑cut discussions, while EUR/USD hovers around 1.19.
ETFs Rake $250B in 28 Days, EM Overtakes Gold
There's only been 28 trading days this year and ETFs have already pulled in about $250b. More than double any other start to a year. Up until 2020, $250b was what they averaged for a YEAR. That's $9b/day pace, or...
Labor Market Stabilizing: Health Care Leads, Construction Rebounds
Yes, most of the jobs last month (and the previous 18 months) have come from health care/social assistance. But if things were so bad would there be 32k in construction? Or 5k added in manufacturing? The labor market isn't great by...
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France Aims to Boost Decarbonised Power Production by 20% over Decade, Encourage Demand
France’s new energy planning law (PPE) sets a decarbonised electricity goal of 650‑693 TWh by 2035, up from 540 TWh today, and aims for 70% of total energy consumption to come from clean power. The decree trims wind and solar targets by...
The SBA's New Credit Restrictions Are a Disaster for Small Businesses
The Small Business Administration has announced a rule that excludes permanent‑resident (green‑card) holders from eligibility for SBA 7(a) and 504 loans. The change eliminates a primary source of affordable credit for many immigrant‑owned small businesses, especially in states with large...
Energy Power Plays Trump, Russia, China Militarize Oil
Trump talks "deals" with Iran while Russia & China talk about naval escorts of Iranian oil to Cuba, writes @TheMichaelEvery The US repeals carbon regs & hopes to restart Venezuelan oil output soon. Energy is being militarized Markets, sanctions & climate...
Is Central Asia Still Russia’s Backyard?
Russian commentators continue to label Central Asia as a Russian sphere of influence, but the region is asserting its independence. Over the past 35 years, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have leveraged their abundant critical minerals and transit corridors...
Box Carriers Set New Surcharges Amid Winter Headwinds
The episode examines how severe winter weather across Europe is forcing major box carriers to impose new emergency surcharges, with CMA CGM adding $100 per container for shipments from North Europe to India and Maersk and Hapag‑Lloyd issuing similar cost warnings....
New Chief Economic Advisor to the Treasury Appointed
Professor Brian Bell has been appointed as the Treasury’s chief economic advisor, taking up the post on 9 March. He will serve as the principal adviser to Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Prime Minister on macro‑economics and fiscal policy, overseeing the department’s...
The Year of the Horse, but Good Luck Finding One with Wheels
The episode examines how the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, officially Feb 17‑23 2026, creates a six‑to‑eight‑week disruption to China’s inland trucking network, with capacity draining from mid‑January and only slowly returning by early March. It highlights the ripple effects on ocean...
European Pulp Prices Climb Amid Ongoing BEK and NBSK Negotiations
European pulp markets are seeing divergent trends as bleached eucalyptus kraft (BEK) prices jumped $120 per tonne for January, while northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) only posted modest gains. The BEK surge is driven by supply constraints from Iberian strikes,...
CPI Dip on Friday the 13th Sparks Inflation Uncertainty
CPI falling on Friday the 13th is the ultimate "Freaky Friday" energy. 👻 Is inflation actually cooling to 2.5%, or is the ghost of 2022 about to jump out of the data? I’m navigating the madness and trading the US CPI release...
High-Spending Carriers Still Have an Appetite for Larger Box Ships
The episode examines the robust demand for larger container ships, noting the orderbook has reached a 15‑year high at roughly 36% of the active fleet. Maersk Line is narrowing the gap with MSC by ordering eight 18,600 TEU LNG dual‑fuel vessels...
Emerging Markets, Trade and Politics
In this episode, host Eimear Daly and emerging‑market specialist Aditya Sharma break down the newly signed India‑US trade agreement, highlighting how it could boost Indian equities and strengthen the rupee by improving export competitiveness and attracting foreign investment. They then...
USD/CAD: Sideways Range with Tariff Risks – Rabobank
Rabobank analysts Molly Schwartz and Christian Lawrence project the USD/CAD pair to remain largely sideways throughout 2026, confined to a 1.36‑1.41 band. The outlook is driven by persistent US‑Canada trade tensions, a looming USMCA review, and a weakening U.S. dollar...
USD Firms Ahead of CPI as Euro/GBP Options Expire
$USD enjoys a firmer tone ahead of the US CPI. Over 5 bln euro options at $1.1850 expire today. Session low so far is slightly below there. GBP530 mln options at $1.36 expire today. Session low so...
The EU’s Digital Euro Is Just a Whisker Away From Becoming a Legal Reality
The European Parliament voted overwhelmingly to endorse two amendments to the ECB’s annual report, labeling the digital euro “essential” for monetary sovereignty, payment‑system resilience and universal acceptance. The first amendment passed with 438 votes, the second with 420, signalling political...
AI Layoffs Risk Turning Companies Into Stranded Assets
Something worth remembering if you're trying to value the stock market right now: 👇 A corporation can only profit from human labor displacement once. If by engaging in that single cost saving to beef up your bottom line you inadvertently destroy...
Polish Disinflation Continues Despite Upside Surprise in January CPI
Poland’s January flash CPI showed headline inflation at 2.2% YoY, modestly above the 1.9% consensus but still under the NBP’s 2.5% ± 1‑point target. The decline was driven by a 7.1% drop in gasoline prices, while food prices held steady at 2.4%...
Australia Should Have CBAM on some Commodities: Review
Australia’s latest carbon leakage review recommends a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), beginning with cement and clinker imports and potentially expanding to hydrogen, steel, ammonia and related products. The review, led by ANU professor Frank Jotzo, evaluated 75 trade‑exposed commodities...
AI Phobia
The episode examines the rapid shift from AI euphoria to AI paranoia among investors, sparked by a controversial startup demo that triggered selloffs in sectors like insurance, logistics, and even impacted Apple. It also highlights the impact of recent January...
BNP Election Win Could Reshape Bangladesh's Energy Mix
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party secured a decisive parliamentary majority, clearing the path for a sweeping overhaul of the nation’s energy strategy. Its manifesto pledges to lift renewable power to 20% of the mix by 2030, a dramatic rise from today’s...
Travel Takes the Lead
Visa’s latest Spending Momentum Index shows travel as the fastest‑growing consumer category in Asia‑Pacific, expanding about 2.5 times faster than overall spend in 2025. Cross‑border card use surged as tourists adopted digital wallets, while affluent consumers generated roughly three‑quarters of...
Chinese Loan Data Out After Market - Lighter than Expected
The episode reviews China’s latest loan data released after market close, noting new yuan loans of CNY 4.71 trillion in January—significantly below the CNY 4.8 trillion forecast and far under expectations of around CNY 5 trillion. While total social financing surged to CNY...
Rupee Closes Nearly Flat, Modest Depreciation Bias Lingers
India’s rupee ended Friday essentially unchanged, closing at 90.6350 per dollar, a slight dip from the prior session. The currency faced pressure from weak domestic equities, elevated interbank dollar demand, and maturing non‑deliverable forward contracts, while the Reserve Bank of...
Singapore's Car Taxes Outpace Fiji's Entire GDP
Singapore is one of the world's biggest oil-trading hubs. It also LOVES to tax cars. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-13/singapore-s-car-tax-revenue-now-so-high-it-exceeds-fiji-s-gdp
Russia's Dollar Return Threatens Metals Rally
🚨 THIS COULD BE A GAME CHANGER FOR METALS AND RISK ASSETS Big news emerged yesterday: Russia is seriously considering returning to dollar-based settlements as part of a broader economic partnership with President Trump. For the past 3–4 years, Russia has been...
Wieslander Published in Euractiv
In a Euractiv op‑ed, Anna Wieslander and Rachel Ellehuus of RUSI argue Europe must build a NATO led by Europeans. They warn waiting for a new U.S. administration would waste critical time. The authors propose an action‑oriented process focusing on...
OPEC+ Faces March 1 Decision on Production Hikes
OIL MARKET: The core group of OPEC+ countries need to decide on March 1 whether to re-start production increases after the Jan-Mar pause. Some members in the group see scope for resuming the monthly hikes, although conversations haven't started yet....
US Loses Cheap‑borrower Advantage, Now Pays Debt Premium
The US exorbitant privilege - the ability to issue debt more cheaply than others - ended about a decade ago. We're now issuing debt at a premium, the result of deficits and debt that are out of control. This change...
We’re Trimming Our 2026 Romania Growth Forecast After a Bumpy End to 2025
Romania’s economy entered recession in early 2024 and posted a 1.9% quarterly contraction in Q4 2025, the steepest drop since 2012. Revised data also turned Q1 2025 growth negative, prompting analysts to slash the 2026 GDP outlook from 1.4% to 0.6%. The...
CPI Insights on Friday the 13th: Inflation Talk
I will be on @YahooFinance at 8:30 am today to talk about the CPI. Friday the 13th and inflation. (My preview thread below.)
EU's Unanimity Stalls Energy Policy, Ignoring Reality
Brussels is fixing process while ignoring physics. The EU 28th corporate regime finally admits that unanimity is incompatible with speed But until green plans are scaled back & some return to Russian oil & gas supply is discussed— everything else is...
‘Beyond a Lithium-Only Future’: How US Trade Rules Could Accelerate BESS Diversification
US trade policy changes – FEOC restrictions and a 25% Section 301 tariff on Chinese‑origin battery energy storage systems (BESS) – took effect on 1 January, tightening cost and compliance pressures. While Chinese lithium‑ion BESS remain marginally cheaper on equipment‑only pricing, developers...
Dollar Holds Steady Pre‑CPI as China Signals Treasury De‑risking
The Dollar is Firm Ahead of January CPI: The US dollar is firm against the G10 currencies ahead of the US January CPI. The week began with news that Chinese officials were encouraging de-risking from US Treasuries. Helped by stronger...
Trump Admin Eyes Tariff Cuts, Citing Price Hikes, Complexity
BOMBSHELL @FT scoop: Trump admin mulls cutting steel/aluminum tariffs bc these taxes 1) raise US prices; 2) are insanely complicated; 3) had other unintented consequences (incl lobbying). They're admitting, in other words, that gravity exists. Good. https://t.co/o4RkfMWxlF
Shanghai’s Tourism Comeback: 9.36 Million Visitors Return as Tokyo, Seoul Rivalry and US Geopolitics Reshape Asia Travel
Shanghai welcomed 9.36 million inbound visitors in 2025, a 39.6% year‑over‑year increase, marking a robust tourism rebound. Growth was driven by diversified source markets, notably South Korea, Russia and Southeast Asia, and by improved visa policies and airline connectivity that doubled...
January Job Loss Smaller, Yields 130k Seasonal Gain
Great question. Drop in hiring happens every January. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis (left), we lost 2.6 million jobs in January 2026, but that was a smaller loss than a typical January ... so we got a good print seasonally adjusted...
Trump’s $12 B Rare‑Earth Stockpile: Mere Band‑Aid
The Trump administration has announced a plan to create a $12 billion stockpile of rare earths. The goal is to create a buffer against any supply disruptions, but this is just a band-aid. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/daeIxnpldt #rareearths #trump #projectvault https://t.co/p6icljXtjO
ECB Publishes Consolidated Banking Data for End-September 2025
The European Central Bank released its consolidated banking data for end‑September 2025, covering 336 banking groups and 2,289 stand‑alone credit institutions across the EU‑27. Total assets rose 0.95 % to €33.44 trillion, while the non‑performing loan ratio edged up to 1.97 %. Return on...
Cathie Wood: Bitcoin Hedges Both Inflation and AI‑driven Deflation
🚨 UPDATE Cathie Wood just said that Bitcoin is a hedge against both inflation and the deflation that could come from the productivity shock of AI! https://t.co/LBcroO4Hst
ECB Staff Push for Tighter Oversight and Regulation
ECB staff comes up with the revolutionary idea of adding even more oversight and regulation
Emirates Is Being Thrown Out Of Algeria As Diplomatic Ties Between Algiers And Abu Dhabi Worsen
Algeria has begun the formal process of terminating its air services agreement with the United Arab Emirates, effectively expelling Emirates from the market. The move follows a deterioration in diplomatic ties, driven by accusations that the UAE fuels regional discord...
Three Consecutive CPI Misses Signal Rate‑Cut Surge
Last CPI missed expectations 3 months in a row. If it happens again today, rate cut bets explode and the dollar dumps. I'm trading it LIVE at 8AM ET. Don't watch from the sidelines 👇 https://t.co/gAw05zLlQ8
Global Fund Flows Outpace US, Shifting Investment Balance
US exceptionalism is turning into global rebalancing: BofA’s Michael Hartnett. Stock funds in Europe, Japan and other international developed markets have drawn $104 billion this year vs the $25 billion that’s flowed into US funds: BofA citing EPFR Global. https://t.co/ah9arXM6u9...
Cameroon Clamps Down on Shadow Fleet as Flag Purge Begins
Cameroon’s ship registry, now Africa’s third‑largest, surged 126% in the past year, largely due to Russian‑linked vessels adopting its flag. The fleet’s average age has risen to 32.7 years, prompting safety concerns after several high‑profile incidents. Under pressure from the EU...
Libya's Economy Lags Egypt After 2011 US Intervention
#LibyaWatch🇱🇾: Libya’s economy is NOWHERE CLOSE to its neighbor Egypt. Thanks to the US-led regime change operation in 2011, Libya is IN THE TANK. https://t.co/mnlulHdvko
US Firms and Consumers Shoulder Most 2025 Tariff Burden
1/5 The New York Fed finds that "U.S. firms and consumers continue to bear the bulk of the economic burden of the high tariffs imposed in 2025." https://t.co/X3Xz2tRn1j
Poland’s Economy Expanded by 4%YoY in the Final Quarter of 2025
Poland’s economy posted a 4.0% year‑on‑year increase in the fourth quarter of 2025, outpacing the 3.8% growth recorded in Q3. Quarterly expansion accelerated to 1.0% from 0.9% in the prior period, driven primarily by a surge in private consumption that...
Trump Narrows Confusing Steel, Aluminum Tariffs Ahead of US‑EU Deal
The Trump administration is working to narrow its broad tariffs on steel and aluminum products that companies find difficult to calculate and the EU wants reined in as part of its pending trade deal with the US https://t.co/638iBN7IU0 via @jendeben...