What's happening: US growth stalls to 1.4% annualized in Q4 2025 amid fiscal gridlock
The U.S. economy expanded at a 1.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, roughly half of analysts' expectations and the slowest pace since early 2024. The deceleration follows a 4.4% surge in the prior quarter and coincides with heightened legislative gridlock over fiscal policy and the debt ceiling.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee highlighted a mixed CPI report, noting a modest 0.2% month‑over‑month rise in headline inflation and a steady 2.5% year‑over‑year rate. While core inflation matched expectations, services inflation remains elevated, keeping overall inflation around 3% and away from the Fed’s 2% target. Real weekly earnings turned positive at +0.5%, offering a rare boost to household income. Goolsbee warned that the path to 2% inflation is still uncertain, even as bond yields slipped and markets priced in potential policy easing.
One way to interpret recent price action in the bond market is that large pools of investment capital have made the determination that a 3.6%-4.1% guaranteed nominal return over the next 5-10 years is preferable to taking on the risk/reward...
Cameroon’s Ministry of Transport announced a suspension of its international ship registry after uncovering multiple fraudulent registrations. The halt, effective immediately, follows pressure from the EU, IMO and U.S. authorities concerned about the flag’s role in the shadow fleet and...
This is the last weekend before Ramadan (2/17 - 3/26) and it happens to be a 3 day US holiday. Not that someone with Trump's risk appetite couldn't strike Iran during the holiest month of the Islamic calendar, it certainly...
President Donald Trump addressed troops at Fort Bragg, warning that fear may be necessary to compel Iran in stalled nuclear negotiations. He highlighted the recent deployment of a second U.S. aircraft carrier to the Middle East as a contingency if...
British Gas chief executive Chris O’Shea warned that UK electricity bills will exceed the 2022 peak by 2030 as the country scrambles to fund massive grid upgrades. He attributed the surge to years of under‑investment, with two‑thirds of future costs...

While sectors like staples (XLP), energy (XLE), materials (XLB) and industrials (XLI) have all provided a safe haven in recent weeks as large cap tech has sucked wind, most of these are all now reaching exhaustion. This means that from...
Ford Motor Co. reported a roughly $2 billion tariff hit in 2025, double the amount projected just months earlier, after a miscommunication about the effective date of auto‑part tariff offsets. A fire at Novelis’ Oswego aluminum plant added another $2 billion headwind,...

Elon Musk’s X platform has granted blue‑checkmark Premium subscriptions to more than two dozen Iranian government officials and state‑run media outlets that are subject to U.S. sanctions, according to a Tech Transparency Project report cited by Wired. The blue checkmark,...
India’s decade‑long reform agenda, highlighted by UPI, GST and digital payment schemes, is now bearing fruit, according to Food Processing Minister Chirag Paswan. New free‑trade agreements, especially the pending pact with the United States, are expected to unlock fresh export...

The episode reviews how the U.S. aluminum market is coping with volatility caused by the 50% import tariff introduced in June, examining its impact on industry sentiment and pricing. Experts discuss the shifting demand landscape, noting the slowdown from removed...

In this episode, J.P. Morgan Global Research analysts Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan, and Patrick Locke examine the current foreign‑exchange (FX) outlook, focusing on how recent US equity stress and the relative underperformance of US stocks are influencing currency markets. They...
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al‑Shibani and Kurdish‑led Syrian Democratic Forces commander Mazloum Kobane on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. The talks came two weeks after a Jan. 30 cease‑fire that promises to...

Pauses aren’t pivots. Central banks are holding steady, but easing remains conditional. Inflation is cooler, labor is softer, yet not weak enough to confirm a recession. Markets are trading the transition, not the destination.
This is actually the best way to describe the difference between GL 49 and GL 50 (the two Venezuela-related General Licenses issued by OFAC today)
Lithuania warned it may negotiate a stand‑alone critical minerals agreement with the United States if the European Union fails to deliver a bloc‑wide pact promptly. The move aims to secure rare‑earths, battery metals and other strategic inputs for its defense...
Why is the mkt so centralized? Well, only megacorps survive the red tape & regulatory fees. “Regulation favors the incumbent” Most scaled companies extract value instead of innovate. They use short-vol strategies that extract from the middle class instead of grow...
Post Hedgeye's Nowcast nailing another decel in CPI Growth decelerates → yields fall → correlations re-assert That’s the whole #Quad3 playbook ✔️ Duration bullish ✔️ Utilities work ✔️ Gold works ❌ Financials don’t

Russia announced a second phase of Northern Sea Route development, planning to build ten additional nuclear icebreakers and 46 salvage vessels by 2035, supported by three new Arctic rescue‑fleet bases. The current fleet includes eight nuclear icebreakers, with the latest...

The Danny Moses Show returns tonight @scrippsnews at 7PM sponsored by @Kalshi. Great to have @pboockvar join me & we talk about the global & U.S. economy, A.I. stocks/bonds, commodities, the consumer, #FED, Private Credit & make some @Kalshi predictions... https://t.co/vQGLUQMHUc...

India’s PFRDA is piloting pension plans that bundle health insurance, allowing up to 30% of the retirement corpus to be earmarked for medical expenses. ICICI, Axis and Tata‑backed funds are testing the “Swasthya” product, which could leverage pooled investors to...
Ashraf Laidi notes recent Trump administration comments that imply a deliberately weaker US dollar ahead of today’s non‑farm payroll (NFP) release. He suggests the labor data could fall far short of the 68,000 consensus, echoing a pattern of "benign neglect"...
The U.S. rig count held steady at 551 this week, with oil rigs slipping by three to 409 while gas rigs rose by three to 133. Crude output climbed to 13.713 million barrels per day, edging close to an all‑time high....
Political scrutiny of the EU emissions trading system intensified in mid‑February, pushing the front‑year EU ETS contract down almost 6% on Feb 5 and a further 7% after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s comments. EU officials denied reports of extending free‑allowance allocations beyond...
Remember, every utterance from BRICS & Global South regarding potential new system to bypass USD is to be treated as if already operational & making material difference. And every piece of evidence that USD system isnt going anywhere is to be...

Labour MP Graeme Downie argues NATO’s consensus‑based decision‑making is too slow for modern crises. He proposes a “neighbourhood” model that empowers regional allies, especially those closest to a theatre, to act quickly. Downie cites the UK’s anti‑submarine capabilities in the...
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy met exiled Iranian opposition leader Reza Pahlavi on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. The two discussed the need to tighten sanctions on Iran and other authoritarian regimes, and jointly condemned the growing military cooperation between...

Employment in France’s automotive sector dropped from 425,500 in 2010 to 286,800 in 2023, a loss of nearly 139,000 jobs or 33 %. The decline was driven primarily by car manufacturers, which shed 46,000 positions, while parts suppliers lost 31.5 % of...

The New York Fed announced that US businesses and consumers paid NEARLY 90% of the cost of Donald Trump’s tariffs last year. TARIFFS = A SALES TAX ON AMERICANS. https://t.co/xEEfGxreUm

Notably, market-implied FOMC cuts through 2026 have been increasing. Through February, Fed Fund futures have priced in another -14bps of cuts for the year - and now the most dovish outlook after CPI since Dec 3rd: https://t.co/NZF2YksrWV
TC Energy reported fourth‑quarter earnings per share of US $0.72, beating the consensus estimate of $0.68, driven by record natural‑gas deliveries in both the United States and Canada. U.S. pipeline flows rose 9.5% YoY to 29.6 Bcf/d, while Canadian deliveries hit a...

US #CPI inflation figures came in line with expectations of a pace cooling. Headline dropped from 2.7% to 2.4% while core eased 2.6% to 2.5%. This does shift priority towards employment in the Fed's dual mandate but the jobless rate...
With this week's jobs revisions, my framework of a main street recession happening last spring that was papered over by large AI capex and top percentile income earners spending like mad makes more sense. And now IMO we're coming out the...

In this brief episode, J.P. Morgan analysts Francis Diamond and Frida Infante examine the current state and near‑term outlook for Swedish and Norwegian sovereign and corporate rate markets. They highlight that both countries are entering a prolonged period of low‑rate...

Indian equities broke their recent rally as a broad technology sell‑off combined with mixed earnings commentary and profit‑taking pressured the benchmark indices. The IT sector led the decline, slipping sharply amid global chip‑maker weakness. Meanwhile, consumer‑focused stocks and a handful...

US's CPI inflation rate comes in at 2.4%/yr in January. The US money supply (M2) has been growing BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~6.3%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting the Fed's 2%/yr inflation target, since April 2022. THE INFLATION STORY =...

Forget Trump's AI HYPE. The S&P Index has now given up nearly all its 2026 gains. https://t.co/GAL0TbU7KG
President Iliana Iotova appointed suspended Bulgarian National Bank deputy governor Andrey Gurov as interim prime minister, invoking a constitutional rule that limits caretaker‑PM candidates to ten senior officials. Gurov’s selection follows an anti‑corruption finding that barred him from his central‑bank...

Yesterday, Bloomberg reported that Russia is considering a re-entry into the US dollar system. Bloomberg's report created quite a stir. RELAX, HANKE'S 95% RULE = 95% OF WHAT YOU READ IN THE PRESS IS EITHER WRONG OR IRRELEVANT. https://t.co/8E7OK7Zm1t

The medical device sector is grappling with a wave of new and proposed tariffs that have lifted costs for metals, electronics, and finished components throughout global supply chains. Manufacturers must decide whether to absorb these higher expenses, pass them to...

Ever since COVID, the start of the year has seen hot inflation prints, because residual seasonality pushed up inflation in the first quarter. That isn't the case in Jan. '26 and I think that holds a warning for those forecasting...

Economists spot early signs of recovery in the US labor market, with private payrolls accelerating, yet underlying job quality remains thin. The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver two 25‑basis‑point cuts, likely in June and September, as inflation stays modest....

If AI were living up to its hype, it would be benefiting the ENTIRE ECONOMY. IT ISN'T. Profit margins outside the tech sector would be growing. THEY'RE NOT. https://t.co/GXT1r783t0
FWIW, since the first "clean" CPI in November (post shutdown), headline CPI inflation is 2.8% annualized and core is 3.2% annualized. Neither suggests much stepdown yet in underlying inflation.

U.S. consumer price inflation in January eased to 0.2% month‑on‑month, with core CPI matching expectations at 0.3% and both headline and core year‑on‑year rates falling to four‑year lows of 2.4% and 2.5%. Goods prices excluding food and energy were flat,...
🚨 Inflation just missed expectations. Again - Dollar dumping - Gold buying the dip - Stocks pumping on rate cut hopes ⚠️ But don't get comfortable - the labor market is the real story https://t.co/hpBwuiWtK4
"Last year companies canceled $22 billion in planned investments in electric vehicle manufacturing, batteries or critical minerals in the United States...." Political sustainability limits industrial policy efficacy. https://t.co/RROrBFwACq
There is ZERO evidence that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is manipulating the data, not the CPI, not payrolls earlier this week. I am not being naive and people are watching carefully for signs of tampering. Such accusations now are harmful...

The AI capex boom is absolutely stimulative to *certain* assets in the ecosystem and supply chain, but that won't be Mag7 stock prices from here. Revenue growth is slowing, input prices rising and you can connect the dots on what...
Another SOFT inflation surrpise... It has become a bit of a theme, and we are increasingly convinced that inflation forecasting has become a "politicized arena" within banks, given how incredibly stubborn they have been in their wrong lean on this.