Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global Economy Pulse
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EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Foreign investors hold over $35 trillion in U.S. assets amid market turbulence
Foreign investors now control more than $35 trillion in U.S. stocks and bonds, up from roughly $31 trillion a year earlier. Despite the April 2025 tariff‑driven market dip, they added about $1.5 trillion in net purchases, signaling continued confidence in the U.S. financial system.
Higher fuel prices are pushing grocery, travel and other everyday costs upward, while a jittery stock market is dampening discretionary spending. Consumer spending, which fuels about two‑thirds of U.S. economic output, has kept the economy out of recession despite five years of inflation, rate hikes and tariffs. Yet persistent oil price pressure, slowing wage growth and the lowest personal savings rate since 2008 are straining household budgets. The combined effect could curtail the engine that has long powered U.S. growth.
The United States posted its three largest monthly trade deficits in the past four months with Taiwan, Mexico and Vietnam, pushing China to fourth place. In February, the deficit with Taiwan reached $17.04 billion, slightly ahead of Mexico’s $15.40 billion and Vietnam’s...
U.S. diesel prices surged to an average $5.64 per gallon in April, up from $3.76 before the U.S.-Israel conflict, pushing fuel costs for truckers and freight carriers higher. The spike inflates per‑mile operating expenses, squeezes carrier margins and fuels broader...
A new Allianz Trade Global Survey shows 65% of exporters now rank geopolitics as their primary business risk, up from 54% a year earlier. Supply‑chain complexity costs have surged to $4.7 trillion, more than double the 2017 figure, driven largely by...
Australia’s Export Finance Australia (EFA) will underwrite spot‑market fuel and crude oil purchases for refiners Viva Energy and Ampol, reducing financial risk and enabling access to otherwise uncommercial cargoes. The government can direct the additional fuel to regions facing tighter...
A Pakistan‑mediated two‑week ceasefire between the United States, Israel and Iran has been accepted, marking the first time a Middle Eastern nation forced the US‑Israel axis to negotiate on Tehran’s terms. The deal pivots negotiations to Iran’s 10‑point plan, replacing...
Oil futures on the NYMEX are trading below $100 per barrel, while spot prices for immediate delivery to Asia and the Middle East sit between $126 and $140. The $30‑$40 premium reflects supply constraints caused by Iran’s restriction of the...
A Russian‑flagged VLCC named Arhimeda transited the Strait of Hormuz, one of only four tankers flying Moscow’s colors. The supertanker, built in 2000, headed westward toward Iran’s Kharg Island before listing “for orders,” indicating no fixed next call. Its recent...
Investors await the March CPI report, which economists expect to show a 0.9% monthly rise and a 3.3% year‑over‑year increase—the steepest annual gain since May 2024. Brent crude has climbed nearly 2% to above $97 a barrel, keeping inflation pressures high....
A Balasubramanian, MD & CEO of ABSL AMC, says Indian equities have slipped into a valuation sweet spot as geopolitical tensions ease and macro signals improve. The Nifty now trades below its long‑term average P/E, while credit and deposit growth are rebounding after...
Energy market turbulence is reverberating across the financial system, with crude‑oil price swings reigniting inflation worries and driving Treasury volatility to its highest level since the 2025 Liberation Day rally. The surge in Treasury convexity signals heightened directional uncertainty, forcing...
British Business Secretary Peter Kyle highlighted a "really great economic set of opportunities" between the United States and the United Kingdom, pointing to roughly $300 bn (£223 bn) of ongoing tech‑related commercial activity. He announced a trade mission that will send about...
Oil prices rose for a second consecutive session as fresh supply‑risk concerns in the Middle East kept Brent near $96 per barrel. Attacks on Saudi and Kuwaiti infrastructure have tightened the market, preserving a geopolitical risk premium despite cease‑fire talks....
Global business activity slowed sharply in March as the Middle East war dented demand, confidence and supply chains. The J.P. Morgan Global Composite PMI fell to 51.0, its weakest reading in 11 months, while new orders hit a 28‑month low and...
Taiwan reported an unprecedented surge of Chinese naval activity, with nearly 100 navy and coast‑guard vessels operating around the island this week, far above the usual 50‑60 ships. The buildup coincides with Beijing’s peace overtures to opposition leader Cheng Li‑wun, who...
Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who seized power in Myanmar’s 2021 coup, was sworn in as president after a landslide vote by the pro‑military parliament. In his inauguration, he claimed the country is returning to democracy while pledging to improve...
The United States’ soft‑power advantage in Southeast Asia is eroding, not because of a structural collapse, but due to deliberate policy cuts and a shift toward Christian‑nationalist messaging that resonates poorly in the region. Data from the Brand Finance Global...
A tentative U.S.-Iran cease‑fire has not restored traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving vessel movements at a near‑standstill. Meanwhile, Exmar is set to receive the world’s first ammonia‑powered gas carriers, a 46,000 cu m pair built by Hyundai Heavy Industries. Panama...
A two‑week US‑Iran cease‑fire announced on April 7 triggered a 13% drop in Brent crude, pulling prices to about $93 per barrel. Oxford Economics still expects a two‑month closure of the Strait of Hormuz followed by lingering disruptions, forecasting a 0.8%...
Nifty has been going up in the face of an enormous rise in FII selling [annual numbers]. So the selling has not mattered but still all eyes are on FIIs. I can only think of two factors. 1.Withholding Tax [ also...
Good Morning from #Germany where the social contribution burden keeps rising. A new study says the Social Contribution Memorial Day shifts to April 11 in 2026, 2 days later than a year earlier, mainly due to higher health and long-term...
The Congressional Budget Office reports a $1.17 trillion deficit for the first six months of FY2026, pushing total federal debt past $39 trillion. Interest obligations alone exceed $1 trillion this year, while $1.7 trillion of outlays are tied to mandatory programs such as Social...
Australia’s economy is not in recession, but growth is decelerating. Real GDP expanded 2.6% year‑on‑year in the December quarter, the strongest pace in nearly three years, while more recent indicators show weakening consumer confidence, a 0.5% drop in household spending...
This isn’t just about oil. It’s a shift in the entire system. Energy → food → cost of living When energy moves structurally higher, everything built on top of it follows. That means: Higher food prices More pressure on households Less margin for error And a move away...
President Trump declared a two‑week ceasefire contingent on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sparking a flurry of diplomatic back‑and‑forth. Tehran confirmed the truce but insists on a 10‑point proposal, while Washington negotiates on a 15‑point framework, accusing Iran of...
Chinese authorities have announced that China will not be allowed to export sulphuric acid from next month, with the only exception being electronic‑grade sulphuric acid. This means that neither smelter acid nor sulphur‑based acid can be exported will be able...
India’s commerce minister Piyush Goyal announced that the government is negotiating free‑trade agreements with at least 20 additional countries, adding to the nine FTAs signed in the past 3½ years that already cover 38 developed nations. The new round targets...
The European session will feature only low‑tier releases—Swiss consumer confidence and Italian industrial production—so market impact is expected to be muted. Meanwhile, U.S. and Iran delegations are traveling to Islamabad to begin peace talks that could influence global economic stability....
Middle Eastern producers are urging Asian refiners to submit crude loading programmes for April and May as they prepare for a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. A two‑week U.S.-Iran ceasefire raised hopes of resuming shipments, but Tehran has...
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will travel to Beijing to seal a High‑Quality Investment Agreement that obliges Chinese firms to share technology, use local suppliers and create jobs in Spain. The pact aims to address Spain’s $36.1 billion trade deficit with...
MCX crude oil futures jumped over 3% on Friday, opening at ₹9,200 per barrel (≈$111) as international markets reacted to supply worries in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the rally, Brent and WTI have each fallen 11% this week, the...
The Climate Council’s new report warns that Australia’s dependence on imported fossil fuels has triggered a $710 million fuel shock in March, as geopolitical tensions drive petrol prices above AU$3 per litre. It highlights that grid‑scale battery storage has already offset...
Malaysia's unemployment rate held at 2.9% in February 2026, with the labor force edging up to 17.30 million. The number of employed rose modestly to 16.79 million, while the unemployed fell to 506,800. Participation remained steady at 70.9%, and the employee share...
Germany’s consumer price index for March confirmed a 2.7% year‑over‑year increase, matching the preliminary estimate and up from 1.9% in February. The rise was driven primarily by a 7.2% jump in energy prices, with fuel costs soaring 20% amid the...
The market awaits the March US CPI report, expected to show a 0.9‑percentage‑point monthly jump and a 3.4% year‑on‑year increase, with core inflation only modestly higher. A higher‑than‑expected headline could keep the dollar firm, but the Fed is likely to...
Oil Prices Rise $1 Amid Strait of Hormuz Disruption Both Brent and WTI crude oil prices advanced by $1 per barrel as traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping route remains nearly halted, impacting global oil supply chains.
China stepped in to persuade Iran to accept a preliminary cease‑fire, enabling U.S. and Iranian delegates to meet in Pakistan. Beijing’s behind‑the‑scenes diplomacy, including vetoing a UN resolution on the Strait of Hormuz, positioned it as a potential guarantor of...
The Bank of Korea left its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% on April 10, citing persistent inflation and heightened geopolitical risk. Governor Rhee, set to retire on April 20, emphasized a data‑dependent approach and avoided any forward guidance on future...
🔥Gold is making history: Gold now makes up 24% of global central bank reserves, surpassing US Treasuries at 21% for the first time since the mid 1990s. This is a complete reversal from Q4 2015, when Treasuries made up 33% of reserves...
1/3 Bloomberg: "Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is aiming to persuade Chinese companies to share more tech know-how with their Spanish partners on a trip to Beijing next week, according to people familiar with the preparations." https://t.co/rdKXynb2L7
China will release a suite of economic data next week, including first‑quarter GDP, trade balances, retail sales, housing prices and industrial production. Analysts expect March exports to rise 8.8% YoY and imports 10.1%, creating a $108.2 bn trade surplus. Q1 GDP...
Remember tariffs? They are the main reason inflation remains above target, having added 0.8% to goods inflation. They are fuelling fragmentation and supply chain pressure. Oh, and fiscal revenues are running 25% below projections, and falling. Other than that, tariffs are great....
Hate to beat a dead horse but Iran didn’t control Hormuz on February 27 but they do now. This is a disaster of epic proportions with no apparent end in sight and the worst effects yet to come
The ceasefire in the Gulf has lifted expectations that UK mortgage costs could ease. Capital Economics forecasts average rates for borrowers with 25% deposits falling from about 5% now to roughly 4.3% by January 2027, trimming monthly repayments by around £100...
IMF chief says the oil shock tests a world with little fiscal buffer https://t.co/AVPFNRJb5I via @jdorosario https://t.co/bV6T4JCGWB
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Libya's oil production has stabilized at ~1.3 million barrels/day and the price has SOARED. As night follows day, the Libyan dinar APPRECIATED by 27% vs. the USD. https://t.co/5PPdIEUYSV
Sánchez to push China to hand over tech secrets on Beijing trip https://t.co/iSThlJP5lO via @basteiro https://t.co/gW7fldvHZn
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Pakistan's March inflation is 7.3%/yr. Pak's money supply (M3) is growing at 15%/yr. That’s ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 11.5-13.5%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Pakistan's inflation target of 5-7%/yr. INFLATION STORY = MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/IKlK5BLB5t
Global rate path veers higher in wake of another Trump shock https://t.co/xtMlttlWvY with @CraigStirling https://t.co/mrRZfr13lH
Goldman on what a 10% increase in natural gas prices means for inflation > https://t.co/RDkqRBzqV2
