Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global Economy Pulse
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EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
UK fintech funding plunges 21% as rates hit 5.25%
Fintech investment in the UK fell 21% in 2025, driven by the Bank of England’s base rate climbing to 5.25%. Higher rates made government bonds more attractive, pulling capital from venture funds and limiting contributions from pension schemes, while softer consumer spending and loan demand pressured fintech valuations.
Management consultancy Kearney’s 2026 Foreign Direct Investment Confidence Index shows that despite heightened geopolitical tension, 88% of surveyed firms intend to raise FDI over the next three years. Industrial policy now ranks as a decisive factor, with 84% of investors rating it extremely important, while technology capability has overtaken traditional considerations as the top location criterion. The United States retains its 14‑year streak as the most attractive FDI market, though optimism has slipped 17 points, and Asian and middle‑power economies are gaining ground.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, driven by a 10.9% jump in the energy index and a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased only 0.2% month‑over‑month, missing expectations. Analysts...
Leith van Onselen’s weekend briefing curates a global snapshot of macro‑risk, from the U.S. automatically enrolling eligible men in a draft pool to Iran’s plan to monetize the Strait of Hormuz with an estimated $64 billion annual toll revenue. The list...
A ceasefire announced on April 7 gives the Trump administration a narrow window to negotiate a settlement with Iran ahead of the November midterms. President Trump views a deal as a political off‑ramp that could soften voter concerns about a costly,...
Oil could revisit wartime price peaks if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked until July, JPMorgan Chase notes. The market expects half of normal oil flows to resume by May and full capacity by June, but a slower return to...
The March Consumer Price Index showed a 0.9% monthly rise in headline inflation, driven largely by a 21% jump in gasoline and a 31% surge in fuel oil. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased only 0.2% month‑over‑month, staying...
The UK Treasury has published the March 2026 Preston guidance, releasing updated earnings and interest factors that employers must use to calculate pension reinstatement for part‑time workers. The guidance stems from 2000‑2001 European Court of Justice and House of Lords decisions...
Kenya’s central bank left its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 8.75% after ten consecutive cuts, citing rising inflation risks from higher global oil prices. Inflation edged up to 4.4% in March, while private‑sector activity contracted, ending a six‑month growth streak....
The U.S. failure to secure Hormuz is a turning point in American hegemony, argues @StevenErlanger Maybe But he frames the outcome as POLICY FAILURE when it’s really a SYSTEM CONSTRAINT The real turning point is the shift from conventional dominance to asymmetric...
The U.S. Consumer Price Index jumped 0.9% in March, largely propelled by a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices amid the US‑Israeli conflict with Iran. Over the past year, gas has risen 18.9%, while fuel oil climbed 44.2%, pushing the overall...
Saudi Arabia’s east‑west pipeline, which feeds Red Sea export terminals, suffered a drone strike that knocked out one pumping station and cut capacity by about 700,000 barrels per day. The reduction won’t affect Yanbu’s shipments immediately because oil already in...
British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer told Donald Trump he spent most of their call discussing a practical plan to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, after warning that Trump’s actions were inflating UK energy bills. He emphasized that any...
If we invert the 10-year bond yield we get a “P/E” ratio for bonds. The chart below shows that since the 2022 rate reset, the bond P/E has been stuck in a tight triangle. That triangle could be a base,...
The World Bank warns that Kenya could lose up to $40 million each month in Gulf‑origin remittances as the Middle‑East conflict drags on. About 500,000 Kenyan workers are employed in Gulf construction and services, and their earnings are already slipping. The...
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee says the S&P 500’s recent rally and a VIX dip below 20 signal that the market bottom is in. The volatility gauge, which fell for the first time under 20 since the Israel‑Iran war began, is the third...
The U.S. dollar eased after March CPI came in below expectations, with headline inflation spiking on energy but core inflation remaining subdued. The softer core reading reinforced the Federal Reserve’s view that the inflation shock is transitory, keeping near‑term rate‑cut...
U.S. CPI for March surged, rising 0.9% month‑over‑month to a 3.3% annual rate, driven largely by energy costs. The energy index jumped 10.9% year‑over‑year, with gasoline prices soaring 21.2%—the biggest monthly gain since 1967. Excluding food and energy, core inflation...
The 2026 tax bill raised the average U.S. tax refund by $350 to $3,521, but the Tax Policy Center estimates that roughly 60% of the total savings go to the top fifth of households earning more than $217,000. Wealth managers...
Iran’s capacity to throttle vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz re‑emerged in a new round of US‑Iran cease‑fire negotiations, underscoring the strategic chokehold on roughly 20% of world oil and gas trade. Experts warn that any disruption could reverberate...
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the March Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET, with analysts warning of a sharp rise driven by a 1% jump in oil prices to $98.6 per barrel amid fragile US‑Iran ceasefire talks. Futures...
For a thorough answer to this question, I would highly recommend reading Bernanke's 2004 speech on this subject. Especially this part: "The public's expectation that inflation will remain low minimizes the second-round effects of oil price increases, which (in a virtuous...
The Indian rupee appreciated to 92.41 per U.S. dollar in early trade on Friday, later opening at 92.57, driven by the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) directive to curb banks' overnight dollar positions and heightened geopolitical risk in West Asia....
The Central Bank of Argentina’s latest REM survey lifted the median 2026 inflation forecast to 29.1%, a 3.1‑point jump driven by the Iran‑related oil price surge. The revision threatens the country’s recent disinflation gains and adds pressure on the peso,...
Italy's parliament voted to postpone the permanent shutdown of its last coal‑fired power stations until 2038, up from the 2025/2028 deadlines set in 2017. The move, tied to a confidence vote, reflects soaring gas prices and a desire to keep...
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $22 billion of 30‑year bonds, achieving a 4.876% high yield and a 2.39 bid‑to‑cover ratio, the lowest demand since November. The result highlights a market tilt toward front‑end securities amid geopolitical uncertainty and mixed inflation data.
U.S. Gulf Coast crude exports are set to reach a record 5 million barrels per day in May, up sharply from roughly 3.97 million in March. Asian refiners are snapping up the cargoes to replace Middle Eastern supply disruptions, prompting a surge...
Emerging economies will drive the bulk of global energy demand growth over the next 20 years, turning them into a strategic battleground for influence. China has leveraged the Belt and Road Initiative to provide over $230 billion in concessional loans and...
India’s textile and apparel shipments to the United States contracted sharply in the first two months of 2026, falling from $1.69 billion to about $1.34 billion. Imports dropped 18.2% year‑on‑year in January and deepened to a 28.7% decline in February. By contrast,...
The United States is rolling out new tariffs on imported pharmaceutical products, affecting an estimated $200‑$250 billion in annual trade. Because 70‑80% of active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) production is concentrated in India and China, manufacturers face limited flexibility and longer lead...
Nuveen strategist Laura Cooper warns that markets are under‑pricing the escalating Iran war and its broader geopolitical fallout. She advises investors to tilt toward U.S. large‑cap technology and AI, overweight emerging markets such as South Korea and Brazil, and add...
Latest. Inflasi Mac 2026 US: Spiked to 3.3%, tertinggi hampir 2 tahun (Feb: 2.4%). Kenaikkan di sebab perang US-Iran driving up energy cost. Possibly no rate cut US in 2026 jika trend crude oil dan perang berterusan. “Figures came in line...
Core inflation in March was relatively muted despite a massive surge in overall inflation due to the Iran war. But there are signs that the energy shock is rippling across the economy. Airfares, for example, notched a 2.7% gain for...
The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.9% in March, pushing the annual inflation rate to 3.3% as Middle East tensions drove energy costs sharply higher. The energy index jumped 10.9%, led by a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices, which...
As I’ve been saying since Day One of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Russia is a big winner. https://t.co/yPgEDa0caP
This week: March showed how fast macro can turn. Crowded trades unraveled, discretionary funds were hit and the winners came from a very different mix: quants, commodities and long vol https://t.co/mab8WrSfpa via @LinkedIn
Base oil markets remain under pressure despite the US‑Iran ceasefire announced on April 7. Group III spot prices have more than doubled in the United States and risen 70 % in Europe, reflecting the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which blocks...
Europe is running out of jet fuel Shortages loom in weeks if Hormuz stays constrained Diesel is the hemoglobin of the economy so Europe will be on economic life support soon https://t.co/52nJDPZ2vH #Energy #OilMarkets #Aviation #Geopolitics
We've entered the phase where the Dollar falls hard against EM. This is driven by a mix of markets feeling like the war is winding down and oil prices still very elevated, which boosts commodity exporting countries like Brazil. Real...
Hassett: Strait can be opened in two months. Really. Based on what? Is the Strait back to open transit? Or controlled by Iran? The impact on supply chains of even this time frame?
USTR's Greer sees no changes in data rules that bar Chinese vehicles from US A short-sighted policy not driven by actual data security concerns, all of which are manageable... https://t.co/wyITSMvYtq
So, the oil and gas infrastructure of major OPEC+ producers in the Gulf and Russia is being blocked, disrupted, and damaged... While China is forced to halt exports of petroleum products, and the US is supplying fuel to satellite countries like...
As soon as markets decided Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 wasn't going to lead to WW3, Brazil's Real began rallying hard. It's the same now. The US is clearly eager for a ceasefire and trying to de-escalate. The Brazilian...
"One year later: How US tariffs and trade policy have reshaped the landscape" https://t.co/F70zDJrgV9 Good review from RBC: https://t.co/fdH0ifQhk3
The greatest trick the Fed ever pulled was convincing the world 4% inflation didn't exist. https://t.co/2nQtRmlH9U
Given the world's dependence on fossil fuels, I would encourage you to look at this as the heart-rate monitor for the global economy, pulled forward by a few weeks. https://t.co/Q4PWG7rSWB
Trump Demands Reopening of Hormuz Ahead of US-Iran Peace Talks. Demands and threats by the two key parties vs resolution. https://t.co/oul6jwCk4x
I think bonds are saying they don't really care that this inflation print was 'better than expectations' because 1) it's still not good and 2) the next few months are going to be even worse.
When I ask others for the bull case from here in stocks, by far the most common answer is positioning and CTA buying. I have trouble squaring that idea with the fact that the S&P 500 is up 7 days in...
Overall US CPI moved up to 3.3% in March, the highest level since April 2024. The odds of a Fed rate cut this month: 0% https://t.co/LVl4ndgw8H
An eye-popping 0.9% *monthly* rise in the CPI was driven mainly by rising energy prices. Core inflation rose a more sedate 0.2% in March. https://t.co/547aq6hkvo
