Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
Amazon is treating India as a long‑term growth market, expanding its zero‑referral‑fee program to cover roughly 125 million products. The company announced an additional $35 billion investment in India by 2030, on top of the $40 billion already spent. A new air cargo route between Guwahati and Kolkata will accelerate deliveries in the Northeast, while BCG projects the Indian e‑commerce market to reach $280‑$300 billion by 2030.
3 months. 2 wars. 1 recession incoming. Trump promised to be the peace president. Then he started a war on Iran with no imminent threat. Now the Strait of Hormuz is a live war zone, oil prices are rising, and the...
In 2011, fifteen years ago, I wrote an essay for @TWQgw on the reemergence of an interconnected "historical Asia" instead of the fragmented "Cold War Asia" anomaly to which Americans had grown accustomed. A fantastic essay in Swarajya on the...
International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol warned that the Middle East war poses a major threat to the global economy as at least 40 energy assets across nine countries are severely damaged. Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel for...
Oil futures surged on Monday as U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran of bombing its power plants unless the Strait of Hormuz reopened within 48 hours. Brent crude rose 1.27% to about $113.5 a barrel and WTI to $99, pushing...
⚠️ Iran threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz is NOT just geopolitical noise. It’s the single biggest macro risk in the market right now. ~20% of global oil flows through that choke point. If it closes: • Oil spikes • Inflation rebounds • Risk...
Here are the links to the weekly look at the global economy and markets—a discussion of a week characterized by both high-stakes developments and an increasingly fragile economic and financial outlook. https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7441107748030693376/ https://open.substack.com/pub/mohamedelerian/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-7d1?r=33wip&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true #economy #markets #middleeastwar
Iran’s UN maritime representative Ali Mousavi announced that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to all vessels except those linked to “Iran’s enemies.” The statement follows a U.S. warning that Tehran’s power plants could be targeted if the strait is...
President Donald Trump issued a 48‑hour ultimatum demanding Iran fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face the obliteration of its power plants. Iran responded by threatening to strike U.S. energy, information‑technology and desalination infrastructure across the Gulf. The exchange...
🔺 The $2 Trillion Shift: Is Tokenized Money About to Kill Traditional Banking? 💸 By 2030, tokenized money could be a $2T market. But while the tech is moving fast, the global financial map is becoming a "fragmented mess" of rules. 💬...
The Trump Administration announced temporary licenses to allow Iranian and Russian crude to move and offered 86 million barrels from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Experts argue the licensing is largely symbolic, as sanctions, insurance gaps, and financing constraints keep...
Given all the news in the past 24 hours, if nothing new is announced in the next 24 hours, strap in—things are about to get intense. #oil #bonds #economics #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
The European Union is weighing safeguard duties on rice imports after the Federation of Rice Millers pressed for a review of existing trade agreements. EU rice imports have reached roughly 1.7 million tonnes, a large share arriving under zero‑tariff arrangements. A...
Sad but true: “Japan can’t cut a deal with Iran without U.S. approval” And that’s why Japanese are protesting now. Energy insecurity in Japan can turn food insecurity can trigger events that US equity, bond, currency market are not pricing in. And Trump’s...
How Do Higher Oil Prices Impact Stock Market Returns? An analysis of historical oil price trends and stock market returns indicates that higher oil prices don't necessarily lead to weaker stock market returns going forward. (Ben Carlson @awealthofcs) This #WeekendReading,...
A Renmin University report urges China to trim its $3.42 trillion foreign‑exchange reserves, which sit at roughly 16% of GDP, to a more moderate level of about 11.5% of GDP as the yuan gains global traction. The paper argues that a...
The 14th WTO Ministerial Conference in Yaounde will focus on institutional reforms aimed at reviving a stalled dispute‑settlement system and accelerating negotiations. India is warning that any changes must preserve consensus‑based rule‑making, MFN treatment and Special & Differential Treatment for...
South Korea named economist Shin Hyun‑song, famed for foreseeing the 2008 crisis, as the next Bank of Korea governor as the nation confronts inflation risks from the Iran war and uneven Asian growth. In the United States, a federal jury held...
Let’s unpack this: US exceptionalism/hegemony is based on our “security guarantees” which Trump clearly voided for our Gulf Arab allies when he and Netanyahu started a war on Iran (and Lebanon). And Trump also started a trade war with China that extracts,...
OUT NOW - @JLinvilleFert on how Strait of Hormuz's closure has blocked >30% of world's fertilizer exports & degraded farming economics. Upward fert & food price risk. It's bad. Apple 🔊https://t.co/cMO23J6a4g Spotify📽️ https://t.co/CX48AK9HEc YouTube📽️ https://t.co/qx5Od1DJd1 https://t.co/uA1oP879mc
Iran warned it will destroy oil facilities and critical infrastructure across the Middle East if the United States strikes its power plants, following President Donald Trump's ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by March 23. The parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said...
As a first for me, I'm recommending @paulkrugman as a weekend read/listen. @robin_j_brooks makes it possible with a discussion on the Hormuz shock. https://t.co/aQ64hxAHxb
Distinguished Columbia Univ. Prof. Jeff Sachs on current geopolitics: "In many ways, the US can not compete with China [in both manufacturing and diplomacy]... And I think we all feel it's not a temporary phenomenon but really the end of the...
Iran struck Qatar's gas infrastructure. Qatar is the world's largest LNG exporter. This isn't just oil at risk. It's the entire Gulf energy supply chain. $XLE is at all-time highs for a reason. https://t.co/7TjuVfAelG
With virtually no international support and a strong disapproval by the American public, Operation Epic Fury in Iran might topple Trump's republicans in the midterm elections. The US-Israeli war on Iran has SPUN OUT OF CONTROL AND SPRUNG A TRAP ON...
No idea how CPIs will import this, but I fear the worst. Rationing + sampling distorted by the few remaining live routes, where prices will go vertical. Some stats offices might even have to impute price, which could paradoxically cushion...
Even if this were true (which, naw), the 140 million barrels of Iranian oil on water Bessent cites here would offset roughly one week of Hormuz stoppage. We’re now in week 4.
Funny math. If Dec oil meets futures. The YoY inflation of oil will be roughly 40%. Pick your inflation basket weighting and any feed through to core . Headline CPI direct is roughly 7%. Others...
The global money supply amounts to $144 trillion. Since 2020 alone, this figure has increased by $26 trillion. A vivid reminder of how quickly the value of money can be diluted. https://t.co/elsQDqCL3p
"According to government data, the U.S. collected $115 million through tariffs on menstrual products containing cotton in 2025, compared with just $42 million in 2020." https://t.co/myTChDYcYR https://t.co/PSGFpKlkaO
"World faces gas supply cliff edge as Gulf’s final LNG shipments approach ports" https://t.co/OjcnxXcs8a "China gets 30 per cent of its LNG from the Gulf but has some domestic gas production and can switch to coal-fired power generation if needed." https://t.co/ikbgxbUPhV
IMF First Deputy Managing Director Dan Katz: "China can do more to increase consumption and domestic demand—especially for services—by boosting household incomes and reducing incentives for precautionary savings. That means shifting resources away from industrial subsidies and infrastructure." https://t.co/2Rvhxa5jsN
"To expect it to cave in today... ignores past lessons. And unlike the Islamic Republic, the White House doesn’t have the benefit of time. It needs to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in days or, at worst, weeks." - @JavierBlas...
As Dave Walker, former Comptroller General of the US, and I wrote in @FortuneMagazine, "total [US] federal debt surged past $39 trillion, or 125% of GDP... Despite the federal government's fiscal time bomb, the US Congress and the President remain with...
Threats are flying between the US and Iran, but what matters for oil prices isn't words but deeds. Those deeds are that big oil tankers with capacity of 2 million barrels keep docking at Kharg Island to fill up. This...
The $200bn capital boost to US banks. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links of today. https://t.co/Z0naICa1tz
22% of the world’s traded urea, 24% of its aluminium, a third of its helium and 45% of its sulphur come from the region
Energy sector $XLE: +33% YTD Consumer Discretionary sector $XLY: -10% YTD Higher gas prices are expected to reduce discretionary spending. The more you spend at the pump, the less you have to spend elsewhere (travel, restaurants, clothing, etc.). Video: https://t.co/kTI1Olplo7
PRICE CHANGES 2000-2025: Massive price increases (100%-300% ↑) • hospital services (+275%) 🩻 • college tuition (+196%) 🎓 • child care 🛝 • medical care 🏥 • housing 🏡 • food and beverages 🥘🥤 Significant price decreases: • TV📺 • computer software💿 • toys🧸 https://t.co/Cu5vmq9OuE
But it is more accurate -- Before the latest oil shock the really big surpluses were China, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore (more an investment income dollar but ... )
China's Rare Earth Weapon: Inside the "Mineral War" with Tomasz Nadrowski. Read more and sign up to my newsletter here: https://t.co/uDfSXat1Xl https://t.co/MXFQAofK9T
"Quantifying Deregulation and its Economic Effects: A Large Language Model Approach" https://t.co/roqt5w8PzH "Positive shocks to deregulation boost investment, productivity, stock prices, profits, and GDP" 👀 https://t.co/3GEjbPT2Fx
What if Asia gets worried and stops sending petroleum to California. (Where did you think Californians get their gas since @GavinNewsom started closing oil refineries?)
Global merchandise trade will slow less this year than the WTO predicted, but risks a sharper downturn if prolonged Middle East conflict keeps energy prices elevated https://t.co/nhU9axrKFm via @b_muzz https://t.co/Vo7S63a3JN
"The Waha market’s collapse underscores a pressing issue in global energy: Even when there’s enough raw-material output, many parts of the world lack the critical supply chains necessary to ship product where it’s needed" https://t.co/SUdaWtbJpH https://t.co/I9cYdXcGNR
If the US bombs Iran's power plants, there's no power to fill up oil tankers, so it's an embargo. Same with taking Kharg Island by force. Iran will stop exporting oil, so it's an embargo. Much better to do an...
"Fertilizer Shock Escalates as New Supply Risks Emerge" https://t.co/lgfrgMYRFg "almost half of the world’s supply of sulfur—which is turned into sulfuric acid for the processing of phosphate fertilizer—comes from countries in the Middle East" And US tariffs are making things worse:
Gold will bounce hard when fed Does emergency rate cut next week or two and all margin accounts stopped out. https://t.co/l3tZYexfCr
Senior BIS economist @HyunSongShin has been named by South Korea’s president to run the Bank of Korea https://t.co/NVLP6R3Dox
Short-term rates (black) are rising as markets settle in for a long war. That pushes up long-term yields, a problem for any high-debt country out there. The last time we saw this in 2022, Italy and Spain needed ECB bailouts...
