Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Venezuela’s Oil Rebound Shows Why the Petrodollar Is a Logistics System
Venezuela’s oil exports rose 14 % in April to 1.23 million barrels per day, the highest level since 2018, after U.S. Treasury’s General License 50A reopened legal channels for U.S., Indian and European buyers. The rebound reflects the re‑activation of a complex logistics chain—rigs, naphtha diluent, tanker charters, insurance and payment clearance—rather than a full production recovery. Heavy crude now moves through documented, insured and financed routes, allowing refiners to process it with standard contracts. The story highlights how the petrodollar functions as a logistics system that determines which barrels become bankable supply.
Dispatch From Kyiv: Europe Steps up on Security as the US Steps Back
Europe is rapidly reshaping its security posture after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and perceived U.S. unreliability. NATO members have accelerated defense spending to the fastest pace since 1953, with Germany targeting 460,000 combat‑ready troops and Poland aiming for 500,000. The...
Stocks Gain as Investors Take Heart From Upbeat Earnings, Dip in Oil
Asian equities slipped 0.3% as oil prices stayed above $100 per barrel, reflecting lingering geopolitical tension in the Gulf. Brent crude fell to $113.85 a barrel and U.S. crude to $105.03 after renewed U.S.-Iran clashes in the Strait of Hormuz....
Fed's Barr Says Gas Prices Could 'Bleed' Into Inflation
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr warned that the ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict could push gasoline and fertilizer prices higher, potentially feeding broader inflation. He noted that U.S. natural‑gas markets are relatively insulated because they are not fully integrated into global markets,...
Washington Post Quotes Official About “Fresh Scrutiny” Over Israel’s Nuclear Threat
The Washington Post reported that a senior U.S. administration official said Israel’s nuclear program is under fresh scrutiny, especially as House Democrats press President Trump to break his silence on the issue. The official warned that if Israel’s air‑defense network...
Credit Growth Signals Economic Strength: Finance Ministry
India’s finance ministry highlighted a surge in non‑food credit growth to 15.9% in FY 26, up from 10.9% a year earlier. Aggregate credit outstanding reached ₹212.9 lakh crore (about $2.6 trillion), a rise of ₹29.2 lakh crore (~$352 billion) YoY. The expansion was broad‑based, led by the...
Rare Earths, PCBs Among 40 Sub-Sectors on FDI Fast Track
India has placed rare‑earth magnets and printed circuit boards among 40 sub‑sectors eligible for a 60‑day fast‑track FDI clearance. The new SOP requires detailed ownership disclosure for investors from China or other bordering nations, with data shared with the RBI....
Mysterious Trader Buys $56 Million in Oil Ahead of UAE Attack
John Lothian News is rolling out “Auditions,” a new JLN Topic Page that will serve as a showcase for market‑related entertainment content creators. The platform will host scripts, documentaries, books, and poems that blend finance themes with storytelling. Its inaugural...
Indonesia's 5.61% Q1 Growth Hides Weak Fundamentals, Economists Warn
Indonesia’s economy expanded 5.61% year‑on‑year in the first quarter of 2026, the quickest pace in almost three years. The surge was largely fueled by a spike in household consumption as millions of Muslims returned home for Eid al‑Fitr. Economists warn...
Norway Just Switched on Another Gas Lifeline for Europe
Equinor has brought Norway’s long‑idle Eirin gas field into production, adding roughly 27.6 million barrels of oil‑equivalent of gas to Europe’s supply. The project was approved in early 2023 and began output within three years, costing about NOK 4.5 billion (≈$495 million). By tying...
Iran War Could Drag India's GDP Growth to 6.5% This Fiscal, Says CII President Rajiv Memani
India’s GDP could expand about 7% this fiscal if the Iran war ends soon, but Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) president Rajiv Memani warns growth may slip to 6.5% if the conflict persists. He noted that FY 26 growth is projected at...
Nepal to Procure 80,000 Tonnes of Fertiliser From India as Iran Disrupts Global Supply Chains
Nepal will buy 80,000 tonnes of fertilizer from India under a government‑to‑government agreement to offset global supply shocks caused by the West Asia war. The shipment comprises 60,000 tonnes of urea and 20,000 tonnes of di‑ammonium phosphate, funded by a...
Dollar Softens as Middle East Ceasefire Holds
The U.S. dollar slipped modestly on Tuesday as markets absorbed a tentative cease‑fire between the United States and Iran, easing geopolitical risk. The dollar index fell 0.03% to 98.44, while the euro and sterling edged higher. The Japanese yen stayed...
Canada Should Work With Washington on Critical Minerals Without Deferring to It – by Robert M. Cutler (Open Canada –...
Canada must collaborate with the United States on critical mineral strategy while preserving its own negotiating leverage. The article argues that critical minerals are now central to economic security and that Canada cannot afford to stay isolated or overly dependent...
The Insurgency Threatening to Derail a U.S.-Pakistan Pact – by Elian Peltier, Zia Ur-Rehman, Christiaan Triebert and Pablo Robles (New...
In September, Pakistan’s army chief presented President Trump with a box of minerals, signaling a push for U.S. involvement in the country’s mining sector. The Trump administration subsequently pledged $1.3 billion for gold and copper projects in Balochistan, a region historically...
One American Loses Their Job for Every 6 Immigrants Removed From the Workforce as Researchers See ‘No Evidence’ that ICE...
A new NBER study finds that heightened ICE activity under the Trump administration has removed roughly 1.2 million foreign‑born workers, triggering a cascade of job losses among native‑born males. In areas with a surge in ICE arrests, six undocumented men left...
Germany Sees U.S. as Vulnerable to Squeeze on Potash Due to Canadian Reliance – by Michael Nienaber (Financial Post/Bloomberg –...
German officials are charting U.S. supply‑chain weak points after President Donald Trump’s threats to seize Greenland. Their analysis flags potash as a critical leverage point because the United States imports more than 90 % of the fertilizer ingredient, primarily from Canada....
Eswar Prasad on Escaping the Doom Loop
In this episode, Cornell professor and Brookings senior fellow Eswar Prasad discusses his new book *The Doom Loop*, which argues that the intertwining of economics, domestic politics, and geopolitics has created a self‑reinforcing negative feedback cycle eroding strong institutions worldwide....
Ruto Makes Case to Tanzania for Tanga Refinery
Kenyan President William Ruto used his Tanzania visit to promote a regional oil refinery in Tanga, seeking financing from Nigerian mogul Aliko Dangote. Tanzanian officials initially reacted cautiously, but Ruto’s business forum and parliamentary address secured broader political openness. The...
AI Boom Persists; Data‑center Stocks Poised for Gains
The AI trade is alive and well. Semiconductor stocks have run up a lot and likely due for a near-term pullback but other names involved in the data-centre buildout are not over-extended. Real GDP accelerated in March + April and with the...
Global Oil Reserves Plunge at Record Pace as Middle East War Strains Supplies
Global oil inventories shrank by a record‑fast 12 million barrels in a single week, the steepest drawdown since 2020. The ongoing Middle East conflict has knocked roughly 1 million barrels per day of regional output off the market, tightening supplies further. In...
Gold Beats Oil as US's Top Export, Flows to China
For the 5th month in the last 6, "Nonmonetary Gold" was again the single biggest export of the US in March. US gold exports were 1.7x > oil; 2x > than Rx preparations, 2.5x > aircraft engines. Biggest destination for US gold...
Stock Markets Are Wobbling, but £10bn Cash Bids at Fat Premiums Can Still Happen
The FTSE 100 slipped 1.4% on May 5, yet it remains a few points above its New Year level despite the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict. Swedish private‑equity firm EQT has raised its cash offer for Intertek to £58 per share (about $74), a 54% premium...
Govt Clears ₹50,000-Crore Package to Boost Credit Flow and Support Businesses
The Indian Union Cabinet approved a ₹18.1 billion (~$2.2 bn) Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) 5.0, part of a broader ₹50 bn (~$6.0 bn) package aimed at easing liquidity pressures from the West Asia crisis. The scheme offers up to ₹2.55 trillion (~$30.7 bn) of...
Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Global liquidity rose to $190.8 trillion last week, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and stronger collateral valuations. Although the total amount marks a peak for the current cycle, growth is decelerating, signaling that liquidity may have topped out. Central bank...
Eurodollar Crisis Drives Bitcoin Toward $1 Million
I sat down with Nik Bhatia, ex-Treasury bond trader, USC professor, and author of Layered Money and The Bitcoin Age. While Bloomberg's Mike McGlone is calling Bitcoin to $10,000, @timevalueofbtc says $1 million is coming sooner than anyone thinks. "The US built...
Why the Strait of Hormuz Crisis Is Exposing Hidden Weaknesses in Supply Chains
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are destabilizing tanker traffic, causing ripples across raw‑material supplies for fertilizers, polymers and packaging. While companies now have dashboards that flag these delays, the lack of coordinated response across procurement, operations and commercial teams...
The War in Iran Is Making Coffee Production More Expensive
The U.S.-Iran war is driving a sharp rise in fertilizer costs, pushing the International Coffee Organization’s price index up 2.3%. World Bank forecasts a 31% jump in fertilizer prices for 2026, with urea soaring 60%, threatening the 2026/27 coffee harvest....
QRA's Pause Fuels Asset Rallies, Inflates Debt
The last time the QRA mattered we pivoted from short to long when Janet decided to stop increasing coupon issuance. Every QRA since has left issuance unchanged. Tomorrow will be no different. It's suppressed bond yields from going...
Asia and Middle East Dominate $13T Sovereign Wealth
Where the World’s $13T in Sovereign Wealth Is Held Key Takeaways 👉 Asia and the Middle East control the majority of the world’s $13 trillion in sovereign wealth. 👉 Norway alone holds over $2.1 trillion, the largest sovereign wealth fund globally. 👉 Middle Eastern...
Amb. Ina Marciulionyte on the Future of EU-Mongolia Ties
Ambassador Ina Marciulionyte highlighted the deepening EU‑Mongolia partnership as it marks 35 years of diplomatic ties and aligns with the EU’s broader Indo‑Pacific push, including its new free‑trade pact with India. Current EU initiatives span renewable‑energy transmission lines in the Gobi, forest...
Villeroy Says ECB Lacks Data for Rate Hike
ECB doesn’t see enough yet to warrant a rate hike, says Villeroy (who won’t be in office anymore when the ECN next sets rates) https://t.co/jwn0TZ30hT via @WHorobin https://t.co/bqeIXgSyEL
EU Urges US to Approve Trade Deal by July
EU tells the US their trade deal should be adopted by July deadline https://t.co/6LX1rp3ffM via @europressos https://t.co/CtRqmdTSJI
UK Long-Term Borrowing Costs Reach 28-Year High
Long‑term UK government bond yields surged to levels not seen since the late 1990s, with the 30‑year gilt reaching about 5.78% and the 10‑year hitting roughly 5.1%. The spike follows the Iran‑Israel conflict, which has shut the Strait of Hormuz,...
UN Considers Hormuz Sanctions Amid US Push for Forceful Resolution
U.N. Weighs Hormuz Sanctions as U.S. Pushes Resolution That Could Open Door to Force https://t.co/CT043TrOfi
Iran Launches Strait Authority, Threatens $90B Fees
Iran does not care about any UN reg. They will do what they want with the Strait. They may be looking at $90bil in fees. What will Trump do?
2026 US Goods Trade Balance Mirrors 2024, Not 2025
New data from the Census today show that, adjusted for inflation, the 2026 US goods trade balance is essentially unchanged vs the same period in 2024. (2025 is wildly distorted bc of an import surge due to tariff front-running.) https://t.co/f779W6FJZL https://t.co/eTPHLFMM9T
Market Bubble Likely to Burst with Policy Tightening
My take on @soarfinancial on the STOCK MARKET BUBBLE: "The market is in BUBBLE TERRITORY so it's vulnerable for a TAKEDOWN... The only thing we know with some certainty is that when the popping occurs, it usually is associated with central...
Eurodollar Market Independent of Dollar
Disagree here obviously -- The modern eurodollar market developed independently of dollar pegging; the UK is the market's hub and the pound obviously isn't pegged to the dollar ... 1/2
Tariffs Alone Won’t Revive U.S. Textile Industry
"It Will Take More Than Tariffs to Bring Back U.S. Textile Manufacturing, Industry Insiders Say" 😯 https://t.co/xrPxylUcmA https://t.co/DDxL6NjUj4
Beef Imports Surge to Record $13.75B, up 28% Yo
"[B]eef imports in total are exploding at $4.5 billion through March, up 28% from a year ago. That comes after record for beef imports at $13.75 billion in 2025, up nearly $2.5 billion from a year earlier." https://t.co/M9mSqQvOq6
AI-Driven Import Surge Widens March US Trade Deficit
US imports are soaring again -- led by imports related to the "AI"/ data center investment boom. That pulled the March trade deficit up even with strong exports .. 1/ https://t.co/pyJlnGeCph
Nigeria Ranks 37th Most Miserable Amid Soaring Inflation
In Hanke’s 2025 Annual Misery Index, Nigeria ranks as the 37TH MOST MISERABLE country in the world. This is thanks to high inflation and steep borrowing costs. Pres. Tinubu = ARROGANT, CORRUPT, & INCOMPETENT. https://t.co/poNAxRjOlJ
Market Hits Record Valuation, Buffett Indicator Tops 227%
Stock Market reaches it’s most expensive valuation in history after the Warren Buffett Indicator hits 227%, surpassing the Dot Com Bubble and the Global Financial Crisis: https://t.co/c3rpLbz8So
Tariffs Yield Minimal Deficit Reduction After One Year
"The figures measure the limited progress made toward the Trump administration’s goal of reducing the deficit in the 12 months after President Trump rolled out steep global tariffs in April 2025." 😯
Blue Line Signals Urgent Need for Rate Cuts
Narrative status That blue dotted line needs rate cuts or coupon auction cuts SOON Following that purple line now 28 days. Dipping east south east https://t.co/mcOBDLMz1a
UK Long‑dated Yields Hit 28‑year High on BoE Hike Bets
The yield on long-dated UK debt climbed to a 28-year high as traders bet on more Bank of England interest-rate hikes https://t.co/1j1HJapqBI
Milei’s Approval Plummets as Inflation Stays Sky‑high
Milei's approval ratings fell to the mid-30s this month. If that’s not bad enough, confidence in Milei's administration plunged for the fourth consecutive month. Argentina’s inflation remains OUT OF CONTROL at 32.7%/yr. MILEI’S FAILURE TO CRUSH INFLATION PUTS HIM IN THE TANK. https://t.co/x1LOiHlZ9P
From War‑torn Ruins to Outpacing the UK
Imagine telling someone in 1953 — as Korea lay in ruins after the war — that one day its stock market would be bigger than the UK's.
Accelerating Money Supply Drives Recent US Inflation Spike
My take on @soarfinancial on RISING US INFLATION: "US CPI jumped from 2.4% in Feb. to 3.3% in Mar. That DIDN'T SURPRISE ME because the money supply has been ACCELERATING for the last 18 months. When that happens, with a lag,...