Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
How’s That Trade War Going for Wisconsin?
Wisconsin's goods exports have slipped both nominally and in real terms since the onset of the Trump‑era trade policies, according to seasonally adjusted data. Manufacturing employment in the state continues to decline, directly contradicting the administration’s promise that tariffs would safeguard jobs. Overall private‑sector employment has essentially flat‑lined since September 2024, suggesting limited spillover benefits. The evidence points to the trade war having a net negative effect on Wisconsin’s export‑driven economy.
Aon Warns Geopolitical Volatility Could Shrink 2026 Buyer‑friendly Insurance Market
Aon’s Q1 2026 Global Insurance Market Insights report warns that escalating geopolitical tensions could quickly erode the rare buyer‑friendly conditions that have defined early‑2026 commercial insurance. The firm cites price drops of 1%‑10% in Asia and EMEA and 11%‑20% in...
UAE Pushes for U.S. Dollar Swap Line as Politicized Hurdles Loom
UAE Trade Minister Thani Al Zeyoudi disclosed ongoing talks with Washington to secure a U.S. dollar currency swap line, a facility currently limited to five central banks. Economists caution that domestic U.S. politics, especially a potential Trump administration, could block...
U.S. Trade Deficit Swells to $60.3 B in March as Imports Outpace Exports
The U.S. trade deficit expanded to $60.3 billion in March, a 4.4% month‑over‑month increase as imports rose faster than exports. The widening gap signals robust consumer and business demand while putting pressure on the dollar and fiscal outlook.
IMF Warns India Faces ‘Triple‑whammy’ of Energy, Finance and Monsoon Risks, Rattling Asian Equities
IMF Asia‑Pacific director Krishna Srinivasan warned that India’s high energy intensity, dependence on imports and a looming bad monsoon create a “triple‑whammy” risk to growth and equity markets. He projected Asian growth could slip from 5% to 4.4% this year, with...
Libyan Banks Disburse Up to $2,000 in Cash to Citizens, Ending 13‑Year Gap
Libyan commercial banks began handing out up to $2,000 in U.S. dollars per citizen on Sunday, the first cash distribution in roughly 13 years. The Central Bank of Libya is using the move to broaden official access to foreign currency...
Oil Futures Markets Still Too Complacent About Supply Shock
Oil futures are trading $20‑$30 per barrel below physical spot prices as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, underscoring a market underestimation of the ongoing Middle East supply shock. Physical grades like Forties, Troll, Cabinda and Sverdrup have surged to...
Oil Extends Decline as Trump Says ‘Great Progress’ in Iran Talks
Oil prices fell for a second consecutive day after President Donald Trump announced "great progress" toward a final agreement to end the war with Iran. West Texas Intermediate slipped toward $100 a barrel, while Brent settled near $110, reversing earlier...
World Rushes for Gold as Fiat Fears Rise
Despite all the typical American doomer narratives, the reason for the large gold exports from the U.S. to the rest of the world…is the rest of the world is much concerned about their own fiat currencies dying than the US...
Trump Says Pausing Hormuz Operation in Push for Iran Deal
President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that the United States is pausing its "Project Freedom" operation, which began on Monday to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The pause follows a request from mediator Pakistan and other nations...
Over 98% of Stablecoins Are Dollar Backed. That’s Good for the U.S.—until It’s Not
Stablecoins are now overwhelmingly dollar‑denominated, with more than 98% of supply pegged to the greenback. Industry leaders such as Visa and Stripe are integrating these tokens, accelerating global use of U.S. dollars for payments and savings. Experts say this cements...
Don’t Debate Policy without First Grasping the Paper
There are lots of interesting things about this paper to discuss. What exactly are they identifying and how does that map to the counterfactual policy proposals people debate? You’ll get none of that from types trying to score some dunk...
US Halts Naval Escort Project Amid Pakistan
$USD softens POTUS pauses Project Freedom naval escort initiative--said to be at the request of Pakistan and "other countries". US blockade remains in place. June WTI comes off (~1.5%).
Tensions Rise in the Persian Gulf
The BBC World Business Report episode examines the escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf, focusing on the U.S. "Project Freedom" to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting impact on global oil shipments. It features insights from U.S. officials,...
‘Trumpflation’ Warning: Mortgage Bills Could Rise by £3,000 Annually – Moneyfacts
Moneyfacts’ INTEREST division warns that a "Trumpflation" shock—oil above $120 and inflation peaking at 6.2%—could push the Bank of England base rate to 5.25%, lifting average mortgage rates to roughly 6.75%. For a typical £250,000 (≈$320,000) 25‑year repayment mortgage, monthly...
Iran's Blockade Over Humanitarian
Please explain to me like I’m 5 or a golden retriever why stopping the humanitarian effort to get ships out but keep the blockade going is what Iran wants and we happily agree to?
Trump Halts Hormuz Escort Mission, Citing Iran Deal Progress
Trump pauses U.S. bid to guide ships out of Strait of Hormuz, cites Iran deal progress: CNBC
Thai Companies Attend US Investment Summit
Thai delegations attended the SelectUSA Investment Summit 2026 in Washington, D.C., meeting U.S. Commerce Department officials and the Office of the United States Trade Representative to discuss trade policy and investment trends. The Thai Feed Mill Association signed an MoU...
DR Congo’s Cobalt Miners Pivot To Copper Amid Price Crash
The Democratic Republic of Congo is curbing cobalt output and imposing strict export quotas as prices plunge, while redirecting capital toward copper, where demand from AI data centers and electric vehicles is surging. Glencore cut cobalt production by 39% year‑on‑year...
US Hypocritically Slaps Auto Tariffs While Condemning EU Protectionism
Not sure the US can criticize the EU for protectionism with a straight face .... Really bad talking point when the US is raising tariffs on autos in a way that clearly violates the EU-US trade trade framework. Embassing TBH
Are We Headed Toward a US-China Trade Showdown?
President Donald Trump is set to travel to Beijing within two weeks, sparking speculation of a renewed US‑China trade showdown. The upcoming talks will likely focus on contentious issues such as the Iran war, Washington’s push for stricter “rules of...
Iran Launches "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" To Administer Hormuz Tolls
Iran has established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) as a single‑window entity to manage tolls for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Shipowners will receive official communications from info@PGSA.ir to align procedures and obtain transit authorizations from the Islamic...
Gold Rises as Trump Touts Progress with Iran and Dollar Falls
Gold prices climbed to about $4,590 an ounce, up roughly 0.8% after President Donald Trump announced "great progress" toward a final Iran agreement. The comment eased inflation concerns, prompting a 0.2% dip in the dollar index and making gold cheaper...
US, Gulf Nations to Force UN Vote on Hormuz Toll
Washington is spearheading a United Nations Security Council resolution demanding that Iran lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and cease collecting tolls for vessel passage. The proposal aims to protect a critical chokepoint that handles roughly a fifth...
Record Stock Rally Extends, Oil Drops on Iran: Markets Wrap
Stocks surged to a record after President Donald Trump signaled progress toward a final agreement with Iran, adding fresh momentum to a market already buoyed by a technology rally. MSCI’s Asian equity gauge jumped 1.7% to an all‑time high, led...
Germany's US Container Lead Shrinks as Italy Rises
Germany has been Europe's largest ocean (containerized) exporter to the US for a long time. In 2016, the gap was 250,000 TEUs. In 2025, it's down to 39,000. Italy is about to take #1. Turkey 2.5x'd. Denmark doubled. Poland grew 50%. Germany?...
The Catastrophe Beneath the Surface
The U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, triggered by the Trump administration’s conflict with Iran, has halted the flow of fertilizer shipments that traverse the waterway. Roughly one‑third of the world’s fertilizer supply moves through the strait, and...
U.S. Oil Can’t Fill the Middle East Supply Hole
U.S. crude exports hit a record 5.2 million barrels per day in early May as Middle East supply disruptions force the United States to act as a “supplier of last resort.” The surge has drawn down the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, emptied...
Trump Admin Abandons Trade Deficit, Ignores AI Import Tariffs
Guess the Trump administration has lost interest in bringing the trade deficit down. Fair enough; tis clear that they aren't going to tariff the imports central to the AI boom ... 1/2
China’s Quiet on Hormuz: Strategic Silence Explained
Cousin @JacobShap and I wax about China and whether its relative silence on Hormuz makes sense or not. https://t.co/0s4iCkXS7Q
The Closer – Breadth Disconnect, AI Earnings, Prices Rising – 5/5/26
The S&P 500 closed in overbought territory on Monday while its 10‑day advance‑decline line was oversold, a breadth disconnect that has occurred only 33 times since 1990. For the first time since July 2022, more than half of ISM Services PMI respondents...
U.S. Reexports Q1 2025 Gold Over Tariff Fears
Nope. We are reexporting gold that came into the US in q1 2025 out of fear of potential gold tariffs ... 1/2
K‑Shape: Assets Rise, Prices Fall, Winners vs Losers
The K-Shaped Experience Asset inflation on the arm. Price inflation on the leg. One is either a beneficiary or a victim.
THE 69-MONTH BOND MARKET CATASTROPHE: The Longest Drawdown in History, the 120% Debt to GDP Trap & Why Foreign Central...
The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index has entered a 69‑month drawdown, eclipsing the previous 16‑month record from 1980‑81. This decline coincides with a U.S. debt‑to‑GDP ratio of roughly 120%, forcing the Treasury to continuously issue new bonds. For the first...
War‑Driven Fuel Surge Pushes US Airline Fares Up 24%
Thanks to US-Israeli war on Iran, jet fuel prices have more than doubled. Domestic US fares have SOARED by 24%, and international fares have SURGED 50% since Jan. 5. AIRLINE PASSENGERS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP & NETANYAHU. https://t.co/aeXlO0ZxmJ
Moulin's Credentials Meet, but Gender Diversity Remains Missing
Emmanuel Moulin has the credentials and the experience to be appointed Governor of the Banque de France. He’s also: - part of Macron’s inner circle of loyalists - not a woman
Traders Ramp Up Bets Warsh’s Fed Could Hike Rates Before Cutting
Bond traders are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will raise rates before any cuts, with swaps now pricing a greater than 50% chance of a hike by next April. The shift reflects growing hedging activity in SOFR futures and...
Trump’s Project Freedom Risks Bypassing Iran’s Strait
VIDEO COLUMN: Can President Trump’s new ‘Project Freedom’ unblock the Strait of Hormuz? I take a look at his high-risk, high-reward shipping plan, trying to circumvent Iran’s grip on the crucial waterway. @Opinion https://t.co/u6if9l4171
G7 Plans Permanent Body to Steer Critical Minerals Agenda
Exclusive: G7 in talks to set up permanent unit to oversee critical minerals agenda https://t.co/wXp74jX9mG
Rubio Warns Iran of 'Total Defeat' If It Refuses Deal
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Iran that refusing a new deal will lead to economic collapse and "total defeat," after the Navy launched Project Freedom to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The operation enabled two U.S.-flagged vessels to...
China’s New Law Forces Firms to Defy US Sanctions
My take in @FortuneMagazine on China BUCKING US sanctions: "This is a move with teeth. Until last weekend, Beijing’s statutes were a paper tiger. With the issuance of Announcement No. 21, that changed, when Chinese were ordered to ignore US sanctions." https://t.co/EvWcJGEjHO
Fed Rate Cut Near S&P Peak Predicts Future Decline
In December, the Fed cut rates within 2% of an all-time high for the S&P 500. We shared this table back then and noted that stocks had never been lower a year later. https://t.co/ujCQTFGTz6
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PAIN AT THE PUMPS: Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources Reduces Diesel Price Hike After Significant Miscalculation
South Africa's Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR) corrected a miscalculation that had initially set the diesel wholesale increase at R6.19 per litre (≈$0.33) to a lower R5.27 per litre (≈$0.28), bringing the price to R31.17/L (≈$1.64). The petrol...
EU Urges US to Reinstate Tariffs Ahead of Anniversary
JUST IN: The EU presses the US to reinstate trade deal tariffs as the anniversary approaches.
Rising Gas Prices Spark Imminent Food Inflation Wave
This is a concerning chart but grounded in reality. The surge in gasoline prices is likely leading commodity grains. The next wave of food inflation is already here. https://t.co/jC5yXTTjzf https://t.co/ZOCR2jO7nt
Norwegian Cruise Line Shares Drop 7% After Cutting 2026 Outlook Despite Q1 Profit
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings posted a first‑quarter profit of $104.7 million and raised revenue to $2.33 billion, yet it trimmed its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $1.45‑$1.79. The surprise cut sent the stock down roughly 7% in pre‑market trading, highlighting the clash...
Goldman Sachs Says AI Is Already Adding to US Consumer Inflation
Goldman Sachs warned that artificial intelligence is currently inflating US consumer prices, citing rising memory‑chip costs, higher software fees and surging electricity bills from data centers. The bank says the near‑term price pressure could offset expected long‑term disinflation from AI...
Aspect Capital Opens $550 Million China Futures Strategy to Global Investors
Aspect Capital, the $9 billion hedge‑fund firm, began offering its China absolute‑return systematic futures strategy to international investors in early April. The product, which manages about $550 million and trades across 65 Chinese futures markets, had previously been limited to mainland investors...
Gulf‑Backed 50‑Year Karachi Port Concession Signals New Era of Economic Diplomacy
Sheikh Ahmed Dalmook Al Maktoum’s joint venture with Abu Dhabi Ports secured a 50‑year concession for Karachi’s East Wharf, which handles about 60% of Pakistan’s cargo. The deal, valued in the billions, is being promoted as a diplomatic lever that replaces...
Institutional FX Trading Volumes Drop 24% in April After March Surge
Institutional foreign‑exchange trading volumes fell 24% in April 2026, reversing a record‑high March that was fueled by Iran‑war volatility. FXSpotStream, Cboe FX, EuronextFX and Deutsche Börse’s 360T all posted month‑over‑month declines of 18‑29%, raising concerns about liquidity and risk appetite...