Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
South African tech buyers are confronting a perfect storm as the rand weakens to R17.23 per dollar, its lowest level in four months. Simultaneously, global AI‑driven demand is driving DRAM and SSD prices up roughly 130% by year‑end, inflating PC and smartphone costs. Rising oil prices are adding shipping and logistics expenses, further tightening budgets. The Reserve Bank is expected to keep its policy rate steady at 6.75% amid these pressures.
A war‑induced energy shock in Iran has tightened global oil supplies, prompting bond markets to price a 50% chance of a U.S. rate hike by October and spurring tighter monetary policy in Asia. Central banks such as the Reserve Bank...
India’s multialignment strategy is under strain as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran triggered a domestic LPG shortage, exposing the country’s energy fragility. Simultaneously, New Delhi’s decision to reopen critical sectors to Chinese foreign direct investment deepens its reliance on a...
The Central Bank of the UAE approved a five‑pillar Financial Institution Resilience Package to fortify the banking sector amid heightened geopolitical risk and volatile markets. The framework expands access to reserve balances up to 30% of the cash reserve requirement...
Senator Joseph Victor "JV" Ejercito urged the Philippine government on March 23 to create an inter‑agency task force that would monitor and mitigate the economic and energy fallout from the escalating Middle East conflict. He cited Senate Resolution No. 43, which...
Smaller Japanese companies across auto parts, plastics, and trucking are feeling the impact of the largest Middle East oil‑supply disruption in decades. Crude prices have jumped to multi‑year highs, driving up fuel and raw‑material costs for firms that typically operate...
Australia’s National Farmers’ Federation warns that soaring diesel prices, triggered by the US‑Israel war on Iran, will soon push grocery costs higher. Farmers are struggling to secure fuel for operations, while transport firms face mounting freight expenses. The National Road...
The Tech Council of Australia’s new report values the technology sector at $248.5 billion, representing 8.9% of national GDP, and emphasizes that indirect tech adoption now drives most of that contribution. Direct tech output has doubled since 2015 but its share...
Trade policy volatility is reshaping chemical supply chains, with U.S. chemical imports spiking to over $20 billion in March 2025 before plunging in April, leaving firms with excess inventory. The February 28 Iran‑Israel conflict triggered a 62% jump in Brent crude...
President Donald Trump issued a 48‑hour ultimatum demanding the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting sharp swings in the FTSE 100 and a dip in oil prices below $100. After Trump announced that “productive” talks had delayed his threat,...
Nigeria’s headline inflation eased to 15.06% year‑on‑year in February 2026, a modest drop from January’s 15.10% and far below last year’s 26.27%. However, month‑on‑month inflation accelerated to 2.01% and food prices jumped 4.69%, indicating persistent cost pressures. Rising global oil...
In a March 20 interview, ECB Vice‑President Luis de Guindos warned that the Middle‑East war will significantly pressure euro‑area growth and inflation, though he does not expect a recession even under the most severe scenarios. The central bank’s baseline assumes...
Moody’s projects Asia‑Pacific GDP growth slowing to 4 % in 2026 and 3.6 % in 2027, down from 4.3 % in 2025. The downgrade reflects surging commodity prices from the Middle‑East conflict and lingering U.S. tariff uncertainty. Export performance remains resilient, driven by...
International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol warned that the world is heading toward a severe energy crisis as at least 40 oil and gas assets in West Asia have been severely damaged. He described the situation as a combination of two...
The UK government will double import duties on foreign steel to 50% and slash import quotas by 60% from July, aiming to protect domestic steelmakers. HS2 contractor Mace warned the move will exacerbate already‑inflated construction costs, as the Iran‑war energy...
Crude oil futures surged on Monday as US‑Iran tensions escalated, pushing Brent crude above $108 per barrel and WTI close to $99. The rise was sparked by President Trump’s ultimatum to Iran over the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran’s retaliatory...
A new BIS paper analyzes how geopolitical events shape cross‑border bank credit from 1977 to 2024. Using confidential International Banking Statistics, the study finds that negative shocks—such as Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine—reduce credit flows between opposing geopolitical blocs by...
Gold’s price has slumped more than 15% this month as stagflation concerns surge following the Iran war, and the market now assigns roughly a 30% chance of a Fed rate hike by year‑end, up from expectations of multiple cuts a...
"NATO VOWS TO REOPEN HORMUZ" is wildly overstated @DeItaone What NATO chief Mark Rutte actually said was allies are talking about ways to reopen Hormuz He added he is "absolutely convinced" they can succeed. At talking & coordinating What EU does best #NATO #MarkRutte...
Japan is considering trimming its inflation‑linked government bond buy‑backs to about ¥15 billion per operation for April and June, down from ¥20 billion a month in Q1. The change follows a rise in break‑even inflation rates above 1.9%, indicating stronger investor demand...
Gulf insecurity can serve U.S. LNG and geopolitical interests, writes @anasalhajji This is an alternative view that should be taken seriously My take is that it goes too far in treating strategic benefit as proof of strategic design The blowback to the...
The run-up in energy prices is making a very awkward Fed transition even more fraught. This was already complicated. Kevin Warsh's confirmation is stalled by the DOJ probe and the Tillis blockade. Plus, unlike every incoming Fed chair since Volcker, Warsh...
CERAWeek in Houston is set to host over 10,000 energy leaders as the Middle East war triggers the biggest oil disruption in history. Attendees include S&P Global’s Daniel Yergin, EDF’s Mark Brownstein, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, and CEOs from...
Based on my understanding, Beijing will try its best to mediate the conflict for the sake of its own economic interests, but the probability of it extending a security guarantee to Iran is extremely low. China’s foreign policy remains fundamentally anchored...
Seeing a narrative going around that gold is selling off because everyone is getting liquidated. Please. If that were the case, people would be selling stocks first. Gold is leading the downside. To me, this still looks like a market pricing in an extremely...
Australia’s largest ammonia producer, Yara’s Pilbara plant, will be offline for roughly two months after a power outage damaged equipment. The facility accounts for about 5% of the world’s traded ammonia, a key feedstock for urea fertilizer and ammonium nitrate...
The notion US stocks have yet to price in a dramatic war escalation makes sense. The S&P 500’s down just 6% from the peak. We’ve seen mediocre earnings, eco reports trigger deeper declines than the one we have currently https://t.co/esTq56VbOq
Adnoc is now reducing LNG production because Strait of Hormuz is shut, tightening the global gas market 🇦🇪 ⚠️ Adnoc has “made temporary operational adjustments to production of Liquefied Natural Gas” They’re working with customers to fulfill commitments “wherever possible” https://t.co/dLBNlgiLER
Japan’s spring wage negotiations (Shunto) project a 5.26% headline increase for unionized workers, translating to roughly a 3.5% rise in base pay. Across all employees, the average wage gain is about 2.3%, well below the Bank of Japan’s 3% target...
Global M2 money supply growth has started to slow down rapidly. This is very, very bad for #BTC, according to Alphractal. https://t.co/EwfF9aiMFn
The ECB is on alert for the fallout on prices from the Iran war, Vice President Luis de Guindos says https://t.co/mBZf91bF2R https://t.co/r2eRoCGCC4
The US‑Iran war has forced major central banks to pause rate cuts, reversing earlier expectations. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Japan all kept rates steady, while Sweden and Switzerland...
1/4 I am a little surprised by these comments from the governor of the PBoC. According to Yicai, yesterday he said that "the world’s major deficit countries are the same as 40 years ago because of the inherent flaws in the...
Because of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Switzerland has suspended military exports to the United States. TRUMP = A MASTERCLASS IN CREATING ENEMIES. https://t.co/dQ6lG3KAgS
Iran launched two missiles at Israeli towns adjacent to the Dimona nuclear research complex, wounding dozens. The attacks came hours after Israel struck Iran's Natanz uranium enrichment plant, prompting the IAEA to urge maximum military restraint and fueling uncertainty in...
This is perhaps the reason why the US dollar has failed to rally meaningfully amidst today's market carnage. It's likely also the key reason behind the collapse in gold prices.
This is what stagflation looks like - high interest rates, inflation (often caused by high energy prices) along with negative economic growth We are 100% there if you ask me
Japanese equities tumbled after former President Donald Trump threatened attacks on power plants near the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting concerns over rising oil prices. The Nikkei 225 dropped as much as 5% to 50,688.76, while the broader Topix fell 4.5%...
Through the first 3 weeks of the US-Israel war on Iran, the Iranian rial has demonstrated surprising resilience. It has APPRECIATED 12% against the USD. https://t.co/eDotRHK77c
How do you manage inflation when it’s driven by climate disasters and overseas fuel shocks? #energysky -- via Renew Economy: https://t.co/tJ9mprNoR3 https://t.co/PGFvKK16pt
The options market is looking to the 2022 Russia‑Ukraine crisis playbook as Iran‑related geopolitical risk resurfaces. While the VIX has lingered under the 30‑point threshold, realized S&P 500 volatility remains low despite elevated implied risk premiums and dealers’ short‑gamma positioning. Strategies...
Lots of emphasis on rising fertilizer prices in the US but food is a small part of budgets in the developed world. It's around 40% of the CPI basket in Bangladesh, Thailand, Ghana and Nigeria. That's 500 MILLION people. https://t.co/g5gtlNlsWN...
The LNG shock is about to get real The last Gulf cargoes loaded before the war are now arriving After that, Europe & Asia hit the wall This is a major structural shock that may last years https://t.co/Dw60mbEoxn #LNG #Hormuz #Qatar #Pakistan #Bangladesh #Taiwan #EnergyCrisis...
On intensity, absolutely true. I think the overall effect will be less than the energy shocks of the 1970s if this ends **today** but if the Hormuz stoppage stretches out for months it'll blow the other two out of the water.
[MUST READ] Iran’s Kharg Island - U.S. seizure would not necessarily end exports or re-open the Strait: https://t.co/yRYH1g1UAM
Sri Lanka has denied a US request to land fighter jets for Trump’s Iran war. TRUMP & THE US = COLLECTING ENEMIES BY THE BUSHEL. https://t.co/zyC7L7xJau
And Indian tanker has reportedly paid in Chinese yuan. Welcome to the #petroYuan market (thanks donald)
What is the managed approach to trade that Donald Trump's administration is seeking with China, as both sides work towards the US president's potential meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in the coming weeks? What is a 'Board of Trade'? https://t.co/7KSQgnuNxR
Had a short window to record this as we go live this Monday. Just to show: markets are in really bad shape this Monday. Japan and Korea are down 3-4% https://t.co/qr5MVM9jzS
