Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
The war in the Middle East has shut the Strait of Hormuz, sending global oil prices soaring and causing farm diesel in the West of England to double to about £1.25 per litre. Fertiliser costs have jumped from £350 to roughly £600 a tonne, adding an estimated £14,000 to a typical 100‑hectare farm’s input bill. Farmers are forced to cut fuel orders and absorb the shock, while the NFU warns some of the burden will eventually shift to consumers. The price spikes illustrate how geopolitical events can quickly ripple through agricultural supply chains.
WTI Peaks and Recessions: $120 (2026), $147 (2008), $130 (2022) - WTI crude oil was near unchanged for the week ending March 20 despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining mostly closed, suggesting a potential topping process reminiscent of 2008. Roughly...
This one is intuitive and goes without saying. But let’s say it anyway; “When oil spikes, food prices tend to follow” Do you know why?
International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol warned that the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis poses a "major threat" to the global economy. The US‑Iran confrontation has nearly halted traffic through the waterway, which carries about 20% of world oil and...
Poland’s economy broke the $1 trillion GDP threshold, placing it among the world’s 20 largest economies, and posted a 3.6% growth rate in 2025 – the fastest among EU members in Q4. The surge follows a historic shift that began with...
In this episode the hosts drift from light‑hearted banter about coffee‑infused drinks, relationship quirks, and upcoming birthday celebrations to a brief segue into the looming "next inflation wave" and its potential impact on everyday expenses. They share personal anecdotes about...
Both the COVID-19 oil shock and the current Middle East oil shock (has) caused big moves in oil prices (Volatility), but for opposite reasons though. In 2020, demand absolutely collapsed because nobody was using or wanted as much oil as...
Polish retail sales rose 5.0% year‑on‑year in February, outpacing consensus but driven by a low base from 2025. Growth slowed in durable goods and textiles, while car sales rebounded. Analysts warn that the escalating Middle East conflict, which has spiked...
Prime Minister Narendra Modi warned that the ongoing US‑Israel‑Iran war in West Asia will have lasting global repercussions, especially for trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz. He reiterated India’s diplomatic push to urge all parties to de‑escalate and pursue...
Nepal's state‑run Nepal Electricity Authority announced plans to nearly double its hydropower exports to India to about 1.1 GW this summer. The target could rise to roughly 2.5 GW within two years as new transmission lines come online. The move responds to...
The EU is desperate to preserve monetary sovereignty, which is under attack by US stablecoins. That’s why S&P’s analysis is good news for the EU and ECB, which is in damage control mode, speeding digital euro launch. S&P Global...
Oil and energy commodities tumble after Trump postpones U.S. strikes against Iran energy infrastructure for five days: CNBC https://t.co/nO7poYHdmx
The United Arab Emirates has restarted its Habshan gas‑processing complex, the nation’s largest facility, after a week‑long shutdown triggered by Iranian attacks. The plant now supplies the domestic gas network, drawing fuel from Qatar via the Dolphin pipeline, but the...
$SPY printed a Sky Scraper Candle after Trump says U.S. and Iran have held ‘productive’ talks: CNBC https://t.co/1sxKxOeC2e
An off ramp? A TACO? Another bait and switch? Brent cratered ~$16/bbl on Trump’s latest post talking about “very good and productive conversations” with Iran. https://t.co/6dfE8zEiRE
Malaysia's central bank highlighted a shrinking current‑account surplus, now under 3% of GDP, and rising external debt. With banks allocating over 60% of loans to households and only 20% to non‑SME corporates, financing for high‑value, capital‑intensive sectors remains limited. The...
Question from a macro-ignorant options guy: Credit issues get better with sharply higher interest rates, right? https://t.co/UdR6NlJ6OR
Dow futures jump 1,200 points after Trump says U.S. and Iran have held ‘productive’ talks: CNBC https://t.co/ayLrxCx0Ot
The Iran‑Israel conflict has nearly closed the Strait of Hormuz, sending Singapore diesel swaps soaring to about $180 a barrel—almost double pre‑conflict levels. Fortescue Metals Group, the world’s fourth‑largest iron‑ore producer, said a 10‑cent diesel price shift translates to $70 million...
there goes China +1 'de-risking' strategy. almost everyone else is dependent on imported oil to fuel manufacturing, which it turns out is another variable which can be disrupted by rage tweet
The U.S. has kicked off renegotiating NAFTA, but Canada was left out of the first round between Mexico and the U.S. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/FCIjtRSKp6 #nafta #trade #geopolitics https://t.co/t6Gl84ia32
Three weeks into the Iran‑Israel war, Brent futures have jumped about 50 % to roughly $110 a barrel, yet physical oil prices are rising even faster as supplies tighten. Spot benchmarks such as Oman ($162) and Murban ($145) are soaring, and...
We could be around 12 hours from a major escalation in the war on Iran. There is no appetite for risk. Bonds and stocks sold aggressively. Gold and silver offer no haven. The greenback is broadly higher....
Pfft. None of the desanctioned Iranian oil is going anywhere other than China, because only China can shield their payments from SWIFT. All of these masterful gambits assume the Iranians are idiots. They’re evil. Not idiots.
The escalation of the Middle East conflict is expected to ripple through the global economy, pressuring South Africa’s fuel costs, inflation and exchange rates. Business Leadership South Africa’s CEO Busi Mavuso warns that higher diesel prices will strain the mining...
Euro-zone wage growth to quicken in the 2nd half of next year https://t.co/k3CjyFvHvU via @jrandow https://t.co/lbCs48qBAT
Gilts face worst month since Liz Truss as oil spike jolts UK market https://t.co/hvaQFGeXXa via @greg_ritchie https://t.co/K33eBm9D5V
Barbados confronted a 2018 crisis with public debt soaring to 179% of GDP and reserves falling to roughly $110 million USD. It introduced the homegrown Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) plan, swiftly moving to a primary surplus, restructuring debt and...
If credit markets continue slowing down because of straits of Hormuz oil shock and unemployment shoots up, Fed may have to announce an emergency half a point cut in next two weeks.
Traders fully price 4 quarter-point hikes from the BOE in 2026 https://t.co/W64ms8NeB5 via @greg_ritchie https://t.co/61ntA97cXa
The European Central Bank’s wage tracker, updated through February 2026, shows negotiated wage growth easing to 2.6% in 2026, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous release. Smoothed one‑off payments project a modest quarterly rise, while unsmoothed and exclusion‑of‑one‑off measures...
The market is experiencing a broad liquidity withdrawal, turning the U.S. dollar into the primary exit asset as equities, bonds and precious metals sell simultaneously. Elevated oil prices are driving risk premia across asset classes, eclipsing central‑bank influence and tightening...
Malaysia’s Leading Index rose 0.6% in January 2026 to 113.4 points, buoyed by a 17.5% jump in real semiconductor imports and a 5.7% increase in non‑ferrous metal imports. The index slipped 0.6% month‑on‑month due to weaker money‑supply growth (M1) and a...
South African tech buyers are confronting a perfect storm as the rand weakens to R17.23 per dollar, its lowest level in four months. Simultaneously, global AI‑driven demand is driving DRAM and SSD prices up roughly 130% by year‑end, inflating PC...
The notion US stocks have yet to price in a dramatic war escalation makes sense. The S&P 500’s down just 6% from the peak. We’ve seen mediocre earnings, eco reports trigger deeper declines than the one we have currently https://t.co/esTq56VbOq
A war‑induced energy shock in Iran has tightened global oil supplies, prompting bond markets to price a 50% chance of a U.S. rate hike by October and spurring tighter monetary policy in Asia. Central banks such as the Reserve Bank...
Adnoc is now reducing LNG production because Strait of Hormuz is shut, tightening the global gas market 🇦🇪 ⚠️ Adnoc has “made temporary operational adjustments to production of Liquefied Natural Gas” They’re working with customers to fulfill commitments “wherever possible” https://t.co/dLBNlgiLER
India’s multialignment strategy is under strain as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran triggered a domestic LPG shortage, exposing the country’s energy fragility. Simultaneously, New Delhi’s decision to reopen critical sectors to Chinese foreign direct investment deepens its reliance on a...
The Central Bank of the UAE approved a five‑pillar Financial Institution Resilience Package to fortify the banking sector amid heightened geopolitical risk and volatile markets. The framework expands access to reserve balances up to 30% of the cash reserve requirement...
Senator Joseph Victor "JV" Ejercito urged the Philippine government on March 23 to create an inter‑agency task force that would monitor and mitigate the economic and energy fallout from the escalating Middle East conflict. He cited Senate Resolution No. 43, which...
Smaller Japanese companies across auto parts, plastics, and trucking are feeling the impact of the largest Middle East oil‑supply disruption in decades. Crude prices have jumped to multi‑year highs, driving up fuel and raw‑material costs for firms that typically operate...
Australia’s National Farmers’ Federation warns that soaring diesel prices, triggered by the US‑Israel war on Iran, will soon push grocery costs higher. Farmers are struggling to secure fuel for operations, while transport firms face mounting freight expenses. The National Road...
Global M2 money supply growth has started to slow down rapidly. This is very, very bad for #BTC, according to Alphractal. https://t.co/EwfF9aiMFn
The ECB is on alert for the fallout on prices from the Iran war, Vice President Luis de Guindos says https://t.co/mBZf91bF2R https://t.co/r2eRoCGCC4
The Tech Council of Australia’s new report values the technology sector at $248.5 billion, representing 8.9% of national GDP, and emphasizes that indirect tech adoption now drives most of that contribution. Direct tech output has doubled since 2015 but its share...
1/4 I am a little surprised by these comments from the governor of the PBoC. According to Yicai, yesterday he said that "the world’s major deficit countries are the same as 40 years ago because of the inherent flaws in the...
Trade policy volatility is reshaping chemical supply chains, with U.S. chemical imports spiking to over $20 billion in March 2025 before plunging in April, leaving firms with excess inventory. The February 28 Iran‑Israel conflict triggered a 62% jump in Brent crude...
President Donald Trump issued a 48‑hour ultimatum demanding the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting sharp swings in the FTSE 100 and a dip in oil prices below $100. After Trump announced that “productive” talks had delayed his threat,...
Nigeria’s headline inflation eased to 15.06% year‑on‑year in February 2026, a modest drop from January’s 15.10% and far below last year’s 26.27%. However, month‑on‑month inflation accelerated to 2.01% and food prices jumped 4.69%, indicating persistent cost pressures. Rising global oil...
