Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Cement Sector Faces Margin Pressure Amid Weak Demand and Rising Costs
India's cement sector is bracing for margin compression over the next one to two quarters as input costs rise and demand weakens. Companies lifted prices in May by Rs10‑13 per bag (about $0.12‑$0.16), with the southern region seeing the steepest hikes of up to Rs25 ($0.30) per bag. Despite these increases, demand remains uneven, hampered by labor shortages, election cycles, and seasonal factors. Systematix Institutional Equities warns profitability will stay under pressure until demand recovers.
Russian Services and Manufacturing PMI Both Contract as Economy Struggles Under Weight of War
Russia’s service sector contracted for a second month in April, with the S&P Global Services PMI edging to 49.7, still below the 50‑point expansion threshold. Manufacturing activity deepened its slump, posting a 48.1 PMI – the eleventh consecutive month of...
FX Daily: Remarkable Resilience of Risk Assets
Investors are rallying risk assets after reports of progress in US‑Iran talks, prompting a sell‑off in the dollar. Oil markets remain in focus, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration expected to report a 2.4 million‑barrel draw, a figure that could trigger...
Aleta Planet Wins Key Licenses to Expand Into Malaysia
Singapore‑based fintech Aleta Planet has been granted a Money Services Business Class B licence and an e‑money issuer licence by Bank Negara Malaysia, allowing it to offer remittance and e‑money services alongside its existing merchant‑acquirer capability. The approvals position Malaysia...
CNBC's UK Exchange Newsletter: It's Not the 1970s, but the Oil Shock Is Still Biting Hard
Rising oil and gas prices have pushed UK consumer price inflation to 3.3% and sparked concerns of a second‑round wage surge that could force the Bank of England to tighten policy. Electricity prices remain the highest among major economies, averaging...
Sovereign Wealth Funds: Backdoor Fiscal Expansion via Investor-Controlled Spending
In this piece, I look at the outbreak of Western Sovereign Wealth Funds from Canada's new proposal to the UK's NWF and conclude they're mostly a way to raise money for industrial policy projects without flipping out bond markets. Aka...
Europe’s Edge in 2026: Moats, Momentum and Mispricing
DWS and STOXX released a whitepaper titled “Europe’s Edge in 2026” highlighting a structural shift in the European economy after prolonged low growth and tight fiscal policy. The report argues that European companies now enjoy stronger competitive moats, sustained momentum,...
Digital Finance as a Geopolitical Arena: China, Web3, and the Competition Over Africa’s Digital Payments Landscape
Africa’s digital payments sector is rapidly expanding, driven by a surge in crypto adoption and the rollout of Web3‑based fintech solutions such as mobile money and stablecoins. The continent is transitioning to the ISO 20022 messaging standard, which promises richer data...
Financial Crisis Inevitable: Prepare Now, Pre‑emptive Action Impossible
✍️ Martin Wolf warns: 💥Prepare for a financial crisis. @martinwolf_ @ftopinion 👉chances of pre-emptive action (to close imbalances) “are close to zero” 👉”Whatever ability we had to do this has vanished in an age of populism, nationalism and multiple follies” 👉”The second best...
The End of the Yellen-Era Debt Playbook?
U.S. Treasury is moving away from Janet Yellen's short‑term bill‑heavy issuance strategy as new Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent prepares to confront a $10 trillion debt wall in 2026. Bessent’s “3‑3‑3” plan targets 3 % GDP growth, a 3 %‑of‑GDP deficit by 2028, and...
India Bonds Rise as Oil Eases on Hopes of US-Iran Peace Deal
Indian government bonds rallied on Wednesday as falling crude prices, driven by hopes of a U.S.-Iran peace deal, eased inflation concerns. The benchmark 6.48% 2035 bond yield slipped to 6.9821% from 7.0184% the day before. Brent crude dropped more than...
Iran And China’s Foreign Ministers Meet In Beijing As Trump Pauses ‘Project Freedom’
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing, marking the first high‑level dialogue between the two nations since the U.S.–Iran war began. The talks occurred hours after President Donald Trump announced a temporary pause to the...
India Services Growth Picks up in April on Strong Domestic Demand, PMI Shows
India’s services sector rebounded in April, with the HSBC India Services PMI climbing to 58.8 from 57.5 in March, its strongest reading in five months. Domestic demand, especially in consumer services, drove the surge, offsetting a slowdown in international orders...
Making Sense of the Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision on April 29, 2026
The Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% for the fourth straight meeting, effectively ending the easing cycle that began in late 2023. The hold was driven by a sharp inflation uptick to 2.4% YoY in March,...
Is This the Moment to Change the Way We Think About Economic Growth?
The IMF and Australian Treasury warn that economic growth in industrialised economies is decelerating as the Middle East war curtails oil, plastics and fertilizer exports. This slowdown fuels debate over the viability of perpetual growth, reviving degrowth and post‑growth theories...
USD/JPY Sees a Quick Knock Down Today, Another Intervention Hit?
The USD/JPY pair fell more than 90 pips, slipping below 157.00, amid another likely intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance. The move came during a Japanese market holiday and follows previous attempts that lost traction as the yen weakened toward...
Fast-Moving Indicators Are Now Showing the Effects of the Gulf War
The Financial Times’ Monetary Policy Radar team is introduced, highlighting its four core contributors. Chris Giles, the former global economics editor, now heads the unit and produces the “Chris Giles on Central Banks” newsletter. Andrew Whiffin, a UK CFA Journalist...
US Commerce Locks in 231.60% Duties on Chinese Mouldings Till 2031
The U.S. Department of Commerce has extended its antidumping and countervailing duty orders on Chinese wood mouldings and millwork, imposing weighted‑average dumping margins of up to 231.60% and subsidy rates of up to 252.29% through May 5 2031. The expedited 120‑day sunset...
Imbalances Are Back on the Global Agenda
Global current‑account imbalances have resurfaced, with the United States now shouldering external liabilities equal to 24% of world output, far above the 6% level in 2008. The traditional surplus economies—China, Germany, Japan and oil exporters—remain dominant, while former European deficit...
Four in Five Britons Worried Iran War Will Make Food More Expensive, Poll Finds
A poll by Opinium shows 80% of Britons fear the Iran‑Israel conflict will raise grocery prices. The war’s impact on oil, gas and fertiliser markets has already pushed energy costs higher, prompting retailers to urge the UK government to cut...
History of Ideas: The Great Dollar Shortage Debate Between Friedman and Kindleberger
In the post‑World War II era the United States faced a chronic shortage of dollars, a condition that constrained European reconstruction and sparked a fifteen‑year scholarly debate. Milton Friedman blamed an overvalued fixed exchange rate that made the dollar too expensive,...
The Value of Reliable Statistics
A recent study by Nicholas Bloom, Erica Groshen, Duncan Hobbs and Michael Strain quantifies the economic value of trust in official statistics. The authors examine the August 1, 2025 firing of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics chief by President Trump, which...
Gold Tops $4,650 as Weaker Dollar and Iran Peace Hopes Lift Precious Metals
Gold surged past $4,650 an ounce on Wednesday, buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar and growing optimism that Washington and Tehran are moving toward a cease‑fire. The rally was reinforced by a pullback in crude oil prices, which trimmed the...
NAB Calls June RBA Hike to 4.60% as Middle East Inflation Compounds Domestic Pressures
NAB has upgraded its Reserve Bank of Australia outlook, now expecting a June cash‑rate increase to 4.60%, up from the 4.35% set in May. The bank cites a dual‑inflation shock—persistent domestic capacity constraints and a second‑round price impact from the...
Even Flawed, America Stays Global Leader—Listen Up
I often get accused of saying U.S. can do no wrong. But its quite the opposite. U.S. has made decades of innumerable mistakes. The consequences of which are now being felt. Yet despite this it still remains atop global order....
South Korea’s Steps to Limit Inflation Increases Paying Off — so Far
South Korea’s consumer‑price inflation rose to 2.6% YoY in April, driven mainly by a 21.9% jump in oil prices. Government interventions—food vouchers, a gasoline‑price cap and frozen utility rates—softened food and energy price pressures, keeping core inflation at 2.2% for...
Ford Gets $1.3B Refund as Audi Braces for Trump Tariffs, EU Pushes Back
Ford announced a $1.3 billion tariff refund from the United States, even as Audi warned that President Trump’s proposed 25% duty on European cars could erode its profit outlook. The European Commission, led by Ursula von der Leyen, rebuffed the threat, insisting the...
China's New Trade Rules Heighten Supply‑Chain Pressure on U.S. Firms
Beijing introduced new trade rules this month that could undercut U.S. attempts to reduce reliance on Chinese manufacturing. Analysts warn the measures will add legal and cost pressures for American exporters, while the Trump administration has remained publicly silent ahead...
Regal Partners on Track for A$2 Bn Net Inflows in 2026 as Inflation‑Hedge Demand Spikes
Regal Partners Ltd. said it is on pace to attract A$2 bn ($1.4 bn) in net inflows this year, the strongest start since its 2022 listing. The surge, including A$200 m through April, reflects heightened investor appetite for strategies that hedge inflation amid...
Lagarde Calls for Europe to Slash 60% Energy‑Import Dependence After Iran‑Driven Price Surge
ECB President Christine Lagarde told a climate conference in Frankfurt that the recent spike in energy prices, driven by the Iran war, should prompt Europe to reduce its roughly 60% reliance on imported fossil fuels. She called the current model...
US‑Mexico Ties Deepen After a Century of Challenges
.@DeputySecState Christopher Landau says the US and Mexico "has been a challenging relationship, and I think on a day to day basis, it's easy to lose sight of the bigger picture" of how very far it has come from 50-100...
Martin Wolf Decodes Global Imbalances with Systemic Insight
1/9 Brilliant article by Martin Wolf on global imbalances. Wolf is one of the few economists who have an intuitive sense of the global economy as an economic system, which means he is also one of the few who understands how...
China Private Survey Rating Dog Services PMI 52.6 in April (up From 52.1 in March)
China's private RatingDog services PMI rose to 52.6 in April from 52.1 in March, indicating a faster expansion pace. New orders grew for a 40‑month streak, driven chiefly by domestic demand, while export orders fell for a second consecutive month....
China Tightens Global Port Control, Plays Long Game
The Economist reports that China has a TIGHTENING GRIP on critical ports AROUND THE WORLD. CHINA = KNOWS HOW TO CAREFULLY PLAY THE LONG GAME. https://t.co/OtRhEJQxj2
Pakistan Rushes to Secure LNG Amid Gas Shortage
Pakistan is urgently looking to buy more LNG to help ease its gas shortage 🇵🇰⚠️ The government is seeking two cargoes for May delivery. This comes after Pakistan recently bought its first spot shipment in over two years The Middle East conflict...
Geopolitics without Recession? Why Aviation Still Feels the Shock First
Oxford Economics finds geopolitical shocks no longer reliably trigger global recessions, but aviation remains highly vulnerable. The sector faces immediate operational disruptions from airspace closures, fuel price swings, and shifting traveler confidence, turning macro resilience into real‑time strain. CAPA’s Rich...
Asian Markets Surge on Trump‑backed Iran Optimism, Chip Rally
"Asian markets rally as Trump signals optimism for Iran deal South Korea, Taiwan shares hit fresh highs amid chip frenzy" https://t.co/V3d6axgmwB
China Purchases Iranian Oil Ahead of Trump's Beijing Visit
China is buying Iranian oil despite US sanctions. This is happening right before Trump makes his trip to Beijing. https://t.co/1J4eVbH5YU
Asian Open : The Peace Dividend Trade Is Back on the Tape
Asian markets surged as oil prices slipped toward $108 a barrel following signs of diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran. The rally lifted MSCI Asia to record levels, with South Korea up over 5% and Samsung briefly breaching...
US Leaders Dismissed Full Hormuz Shutdown as Improbable
A full Hormuz shutdown was not taken seriously by the Trump administration, writes @AmyAHarder Also not by Biden or G.W. Bush It was considered "too improbable" I wonder what energy blind bozos they consulted on this matter #OilMarkets #EnergyRisk
PBOC Sets USD/ CNY Reference Rate for Today at 6.8562 (Vs. Estimate at 6.8160)
The People’s Bank of China set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8562, outpacing the Reuters estimate of 6.8160. This 40‑basis‑point appreciation is the strongest yuan level since March 24, 2023, and comes as China reopens after an extra‑long holiday. The PBOC allows...
India–US Trade Deal Very Close, Last Hurdle Remains, Says US Official
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau said the United States and India are "very, very close" to sealing a long‑awaited bilateral trade pact, with only a final obstacle remaining. The framework, unveiled in early February, envisions U.S. tariffs on...
PETER LEWIS' MONEY TALK - Wednesday 6 May 2026
Peter Lewis’s Money Talk episode on May 6, 2026 examined the fallout from the recent Iran‑U.S. tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting how the blockade has cut roughly 23 million barrels of oil and 20 % of LNG supply from global...
SelectUSA Summit: Indian Companies Pledge ₹1.1 Billion Investment and 1,500 Jobs
At the SelectUSA Investment Summit, twelve Indian companies announced a combined $1.1 billion investment in the United States, covering aerospace, defence, energy, advanced manufacturing and artificial intelligence. The largest single investor, Abhyuday Group, will spend $900 million to create manufacturing clusters in...
Trump Says Great Progress in Final Agreement with Iran, Suspends Project Freedom
President Donald Trump announced the suspension of Project Freedom, the U.S. operation escorting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, citing "great progress" in talks with Iran toward a final peace agreement. While the naval blockade around the strait remains...
Glenn's Arrogance Masks Repeated China Trade Misconceptions
Glenn's arrogance is incredible given his long history of clinging stubbornly to inaccurate arguments (no overcapacity in China's exports, China doesn't "really" have a trade surplus, SAFE produces accurate BoP that no one outside China should challenge ....) 1/
Stagflation Signals Policymakers May Look Through Inflation
Today’s ISM report was yet another very stagflationary report. Prices paid spiked to 3-year highs, while employment fell to 2-year lows. How will policymakers respond if this persists? They will ease into weakness and look through inflation. https://t.co/jC5yXTTjzf https://t.co/ObkzsVTJFG
Oil Price Rises Bolster India's Ethanol Push Despite Drawbacks
India achieved its 20% ethanol‑in‑gasoline target (E20) a year ahead of schedule, driven by soaring crude oil prices amid Middle‑East tensions. The government is now eyeing higher blends, even up to 85% ethanol, to cut its massive import bill, which...
Trump Pauses Strait of Hormuz Reopening, Worsening Impacts
Trump. Pausing reopening the Strait. Not good new as the physical impact is beginning. Making the economic impact worse.
West Asia War May Briefly Dent India's Growth as Fundamentals Strong: Memani
The West Asia war is expected to temporarily dent India’s growth, nudging the FY27 forecast down from the pre‑war 7‑7.4% range toward the RBI’s 6.9% outlook. Inflation has spiked, with wholesale‑price‑index rising to 3.88% in March while consumer‑price‑index remains within...