Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
The Iran‑U.S. conflict is spilling into the Gulf, forcing BRICS to confront its first major geopolitical test since the 2024 expansion. While Russia and China back Tehran’s strategic autonomy, India adopts a cautious stance to protect its Chabahar‑linked trade interests. The crisis highlights the bloc’s divergent energy dependencies and the urgency of building alternative financial mechanisms like BRICS Pay. Ultimately, BRICS must balance sovereign interests with its multipolar ambition, or risk remaining a symbolic coalition.
Israeli officials and U.S. think tanks are warning that Turkey could become a strategic rival comparable to Iran, citing President Erdogan’s authoritarian turn and regional ambitions. The article argues the "new Iran" label is misleading because Turkey lacks Iran’s ideological...
My take on the effect that increasing oil prices have on inflation: "There is a lot of narrative being spun in the newspapers saying that oil price increases will cause inflation. No. It simply means that the price of oil will...
Gold slipped to about $5,015 an ounce on Monday, a 3% intraday drop, before regaining most of the loss, as a stronger U.S. dollar and inflation‑driven rate worries kept investors on the sidelines. Silver, by contrast, rose over 2% to...
China’s investment strategy in Central Asia is moving beyond the debt‑trap stereotype, emphasizing joint ventures and infrastructure that fuel industrial growth. In 2025, Chinese foreign direct investment rose roughly 15% year‑on‑year, with Kazakhstan alone attracting about $12 billion in energy projects....
The Philippine Department of Trade and Industry says ongoing global disruptions – from the Middle East conflict to the US‑China trade war – are creating fresh trade openings for ASEAN. At the pre‑ASEAN Business Environment Forum (ABEF), DTI executive director...
france sending warships to the med/red sea and potentially toward hormuz — framing it as “strictly defensive” and about freedom of navigation. message: europe won’t be (completely) sidelined as us–israel–iran escalation hits shipping lanes and pushes oil toward $100+.
Kevin Muir argues that claims of the business cycle’s demise are overstated, noting that cyclical patterns still shape macroeconomic outcomes. He points to a recent tipping point where labor market slack is eroding, causing unemployment to rise faster than expected....
The Strait of Hormuz closure removed roughly 20 million barrels per day, creating the largest oil shock in history and dwarfing the next five biggest disruptions combined. In the AI arena, Anthropic’s Claude has surged to about 70% of U.S. business...
Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel as the Iran‑US‑Israel conflict intensifies, leaving the Strait of Hormuz gridlocked. G7 finance ministers are meeting to discuss a coordinated release of strategic oil reserves, while the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank...
China’s Belt and Road Initiative has propelled its trade with Africa to $348 billion in 2025, a 17.7% jump driven largely by a surge in Chinese exports and massive infrastructure‑focused loans. The initiative recently expanded zero‑tariff market access to all 53...
Stagflation concerns have pushed volatility risk premiums to record levels across commodities and equities. One‑month implied volatility for crude oil surged to 104%, the highest since 2020 and near 2008 crisis peaks, with the volatility risk premium now almost twice...
USD stablecoins guarantee a digital euro; now we have even more proof of this from Spain: “Europe needs a sovereign payment architecture,” and “the noticeable increase in US stablecoin-based financial intermediation increases the urgency.” Spain Pushes for 2028 Launch of...
My chat with @SoumayaKeynes about oil on the @FT podcast. When we did this on Thursday, Brent was $83 and there was lots of humming and hawing if they can go higher. We discussed the shutdown of the Strait of...
JPMorgan’s head of global market intelligence warned that the Iran war could push the S&P 500 down about 10%, citing oil prices breaching $120 a barrel and heightened inflation risk. The bank’s outlook marks a sharp reversal from earlier estimates of...
Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel after the Iran‑related conflict disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude to near $120 in a single day. In response, the UK’s AA and RAC urged motorists to skip non‑essential trips and adopt...
Prediction‑market platform Kalshi saw recession odds climb above 34% on Monday, the highest level since November, after U.S. crude oil breached the $100 per barrel threshold. The surge in oil prices follows recent Middle‑Eastern output cuts and the closure of...
U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced it will create a refund process for Trump‑era tariffs invalidated by the Supreme Court, aiming to launch within 45 days. The agency has not yet detailed how importers will file refunds in the Automated...
Everyone is suddenly talking about stagflation… but most people have no idea what that actually means for the stock market #stockmarket #stocks #stagflation
Curve shape (white) was completely uncorrelated with level of rates through first week of Iran conflict. That trend changed overnight when 10s peaked ~4.20%. Since then, have seen notable flattening. 1/ https://t.co/zHYcDKsXG6
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that Europe’s “limited responsibility” fiscal framework must be abandoned to protect prosperity and sovereignty. She made the remarks at an informal European Council meeting and the Munich Security Conference, calling for deeper fiscal...
MOSCOW, March 9 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that the Iran war had triggered a global energy crisis and cautioned that oil production dependent on transport through the Strait of Hormuz could soon come to a...
Why Spain’s Sanchez is standing up to Trump on the Iran war https://t.co/Jq0rQAMH0R via @rorihuela https://t.co/sF1Tq53V7f
Xeneta’s March 5 report warns that the Iran‑U.S./Israel conflict is reshaping the 2026 air cargo outlook. February showed a 6 % YoY volume rise and spot rates up 5 % to $2.58/kg, indicating resilience. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, jet‑fuel costs could...
Oil tankers transiting Strait of Hormuz ‘must be very careful,’ Iran foreign ministry warns: CNBC $USO $XLE
China Says Opposes Any Targeting of New Iran Leader "China opposes interference in other countries' internal affairs under any pretext, and Iran's sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity should be respected," he said when asked about the threats against the new leader. ...
Ukraine has set 2027 as its target for full EU membership, framing accession as an existential and strategic priority amid an ongoing war. Since accession talks began in June 2024, Kyiv has completed screening of 33 negotiation chapters in under...
Read @JavierBlas on the oil pipeline that could ameliorate the closure of the Straight of Hormuz https://t.co/hfkrPgLpIy https://t.co/BIgHZhk6rA
China is in the grip of a DEFLATION. In February, its Producer Price Index (PPI) was NEGATIVE at -0.9%/yr. If that's not bad enough, China's PPI has been negative for 3 STRAIGHT YEARS. DEFLATION = AN ANEMIC MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH STORY. https://t.co/HLuNvjATSK
Zimplats, Zimbabwe's leading PGM producer, will meet the government to resolve delayed local‑currency payments under the Reserve Bank's 30% export surrender policy. The company's deferred liquidation account swelled 158% to US$78.1 million between June 2025 and December 2025, reflecting export proceeds...
The % of workers who plan to quit their jobs has fallen to its lowest level since the start of the NY Fed's survey. People who have a job are not giving them up right now https://t.co/p7kO4PdQ2A
We will of course need careful empirical analysis to be sure, but this is a very strong and telling break in the time series. https://t.co/r6avYSPdM6
Pre‑market trading is under pressure as the Iran conflict pushes WTI and Brent crude above $100 a barrel, lifting oil prices 78% year‑to‑date. Major indices are slipping, with the Dow down 1.16%, the S&P 500 off 1.05% and the Nasdaq losing...
In the last two trading days, the Brazilian Real has outperformed every other EM currency. This parallels price action after Russia invaded Ukraine. The same terms of trade shock that took $/BRL to 4.50 then is happening again now. Prime...
Taiwan’s premier made a personal trip to Japan and appeared in public to watch the island’s baseball team in action, a rare visit that risks deteriorating Tokyo’s ties with China further https://t.co/CqBObJKdDb
The United States‑Israeli war on Iran has driven the Indonesian rupiah to Rp 17,009 per dollar, flirting with its 1997‑1998 crisis low. Bloomberg data show the currency briefly breaching the Rp 17,000 psychological barrier before settling near Rp 16,950. The conflict has also...
If the war ended today with Iran's complete and total surrender, Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic would take two weeks to return to normal and Gulf oil production two months to get back to pre-war levels. And that's optimistic. https://t.co/o3CKt61EZn
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: Before the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, the economic performance of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iran were virtually identical. The only economy in the region that boomed was Turkey. A GRAPH IS WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS. https://t.co/1l6xvZVSll
Iran's Assembly of Experts appointed 56‑year‑old Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Ayatollah, as the new supreme leader amid an ongoing war with Israel and heightened attacks across the Middle East. The appointment reinforces the Revolutionary Guard’s hard‑line stance and...
Some weekly inputs are coming into our nowcast-model today, and it looks pretty painful to be honest. Especially in growth terms. The shipping/trucking/export/import volumes look bad. Really bad. So this is starting to impact the economy (already)..
France says G-7 is not there yet on releasing oil stockpiles https://t.co/aduCab1b7z via @WHorobin @Alemrome https://t.co/YIIOlUuvMQ
1/5 A 10% increase in energy prices that persists for a year would push global inflation up by 40 basis points and slow economic growth by 0.1-0.2%, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said. So, what price measures "persists for a...
China’s inflation rate comes in at 1.3%/yr in February, BELOW its 2% target. China’s money supply (M2) is growing at 9.0%/yr, BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 10.0%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target of 2%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY =...
Today, on the invitation of Minister Roland Lescure of France, which holds the G7 Presidency, I took part in a meeting of G7 Finance Ministers on the global economic situation and Middle East conflict. My statement on the meeting: https://t.co/NnpeYX73nn...
People recoil at the idea of using the SPR just to damp prices. But now that the US has plenty of domestic oil, what other purposes would it serve? What other conditions would be an appropriate time to use it?
LONDON, March 9 (Reuters) - Oil prices surged to more than $119 a barrel on Monday, hitting levels not seen since mid-2022, as some major producers cut supplies and fears of prolonged shipping disruption gripped the market due to the...
LONDON/SINGAPORE, March 9 (Reuters) - Bonds across the globe sank on Monday as a rapidly worsening U.S.-Israeli war with Iran briefly pushed oil prices near $120, heightening investor fears over inflation which they bet may prompt European central banks to...
LONDON, March 9 - Iran's oil exports would stall and output halve if the U.S. and Israel were to seize its port on Kharg Island, triggering further attacks from Tehran on regional oil infrastructure, JP Morgan said in a note.
G7 countries looking at releasing oil reserves. Maybe 400 million barrels. How much impact will this have? What if the Iran war continues, and reserves are drawn down?
Market expectations of a June rate cut from the Fed have fallen to around 40%, close to their lowest levels in months following the run-up in oil prices, according to CME Group https://t.co/1DRbhts0Fk
