Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
Oil prices have breached $90 a barrel and could climb toward $100, reviving a pattern where energy spikes precede grocery inflation in Canada by six to nine months. Historical data shows each major oil surge lifts food price inflation by one to three percentage points, suggesting a potential rise to 6‑8% by 2026. The timing coincides with an upcoming carbon tax increase to $110 per tonne, amplifying cost pressures across the food supply chain. Consumers may soon feel higher grocery bills, especially for energy‑intensive products.
"I find myself repeating over and over again the arguments that Smith first made 250 years ago: Trade deficits are not inherently bad; imports are the source of real benefits to consumers; and trade expands the division of labor, raising...
Japan’s equity market has paused as the Iran‑Israel conflict lifts oil and gas prices, pulling TOPIX and the Nikkei down about 4% after strong YTD gains. Analysts argue the market remains fairly valued, with forward earnings multiples around 17.5×, and...
Higher oil prices are increasingly aligning with rising interest rates, intensifying inflation pressures and prompting risk‑off sentiment across equity markets. Geopolitical shocks that push oil spikes tend to depress risk assets, though the effect fades once oil stabilises. The latest...
The Iran‑Israel‑US conflict has forced the cancellation of several South American soymeal and soybean cargoes destined for Iran, prompting exporters to consider washouts or rerouting. Soymeal premiums are under pressure as freight rates spike, especially on Atlantic routes, while Brazil’s...
FYI, my latest article in the Financial Times discusses how the war in Iran and skyrocketing oil prices can compound the spillovers from an uncertain US labor market and financial strains in three market sectors. https://www.ft.com/content/418455bc-e177-46a4-8e25-44c837f49038 #economy #markets #oil #middleeastwar @financialtimes
European NATO members reduced the United States' share of major arms imports to 58% in the 2021‑2025 period, down from 64% in the previous five years. The decline coincides with a three‑fold increase in overall European defense spending after Russia’s...
Eurozone Sentix investor confidence slipped to -3.1 in March, missing the -5.0 forecast but confirming a sharp reversal from the prior 4.2 reading. The expectations index collapsed to 3.5 from 15.8, while the current‑situation gauge fell to -9.5. The decline...
In February 2026 the European Union purchased every cargo from Russia’s Yamal LNG project, amounting to 1.54 million tonnes across 21 shipments, the first full‑yearly capture since 2018. The purchases came just nine months before the EU’s scheduled ban on Russian...
India’s shrimp exports are projected to exceed Rs 50,000 crore this fiscal, marking a 13‑15 % year‑on‑year rise after three years of stagnation. While shipments to the United States fell 15 %, the sector offset the loss by expanding into Vietnam, the EU and...
The opinion piece argues that Ethiopia should be wary of joining the East African Community (EAC), citing systemic failures among current members. It highlights that several states have missed subscription payments, lack airspace integration, and prioritize arms spending over regional...
India’s statistical system is overhauling district‑level GDP measurement, shifting from a top‑down allocation model to a bottom‑up approach that uses granular data. The change, driven by the National Statistical Office and state directorates of economics and statistics, will incorporate new...
The South African rand weakened to below R16.90 per US dollar, its lowest level since mid‑December, as oil prices surged more than 25% amid the expanding US‑Israeli conflict with Iran. Higher crude costs and heightened global risk aversion pressured the...
Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export hub, handles roughly 90% of the country's crude and can load about 7 million barrels per day. As the U.S.-Israel war on Iran intensifies, the island remains untouched, but analysts warn President Trump may contemplate...
Oil prices have surged sharply as the Middle East conflict intensifies, highlighted by Iran’s appointment of a new supreme leader. The spike has prompted an emergency G7 finance ministers meeting to discuss coordinated responses. In the UK, Prime Minister Sir...
Oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel, reigniting market volatility amid heightened geopolitical tensions. Julius Baer strategist Mark Matthews says markets are already pricing in the shock, with Asian equities showing mixed reactions and India’s exposure mitigated by improved oil...
Container Trade Statistics shows Africa dominates the four fastest‑growing container lanes worldwide, driven by strong import and export growth across all regions. MSC’s strategic redeployment of its largest vessels from Asia‑Europe to the burgeoning Asia‑West Africa route lifted average ship...
The French government announced that releasing its strategic oil reserves will be on the agenda of a virtual G‑7 finance ministers meeting on March 9. France, holding the rotating G‑7 presidency, will lead the discussion on how to mitigate the...
Fitch Ratings warns that the ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict could create new credit risks for emerging‑market sovereigns. Disruptions to Gulf oil supplies may push energy import costs higher, strengthening the US dollar and tightening debt markets, especially for speculative‑grade issuers. Countries...
German industrial output contracted 0.5% in January, following a revised 1% decline in December. Factory orders fell alongside production, contradicting Bloomberg economists’ forecast of a 1% increase. The unexpected downturn dampens expectations for a rapid manufacturing rebound in Europe’s largest...
Traders have sharply increased bets that the European Central Bank will deliver two full 25‑basis‑point rate hikes before year‑end, up from a single hike priced on Friday. The shift follows a recent spike in energy prices that has reignited fears...
German industrial production slipped 0.5% month‑on‑month in January, leaving output 1.2% lower than a year ago, with the metal and pharmaceuticals sectors bearing the brunt. New industrial orders collapsed by more than 10% MoM, reflecting a reversal of the bulk‑order...
India's finished steel exports rose 36.6% year‑on‑year to 6.02 million metric tonnes in the April‑February period, while imports fell 37.4% to 5.6 million tonnes. Crude‑steel production increased 11.2% to 153.61 million tonnes, outpacing domestic consumption, which grew 7.2% to 147.7 million tonnes. The surplus...
A new SBI Research report suggests that revaluing the United States’ gold reserves at current market prices could eliminate roughly 70% of the federal budget deficit. The reserves are still recorded at 1973 valuation levels, creating a massive accounting gap....
German industrial orders plunged 11.1% in January, far worse than the -4.5% forecast, highlighting a sharp contraction in manufacturing activity. When large orders are stripped out, the overall decline eases to a modest 0.4% month‑on‑month, and a three‑month view shows...
Australia’s iron‑ore sector produced 967.8 million tonnes in 2025, a 1.4% YoY rise, maintaining a 36.8% share of global output. Prices softened to an average $100.2 per dry metric tonne, down 8.4% as Chinese steel demand cooled and supply grew. While...
Austria’s AAA‑rated sovereign debt remains under pressure as fiscal deficits have widened to around 4 % of GDP, driven by ageing‑related expenditures, lingering inflation effects and higher defence outlays. A sizeable consolidation package has been introduced, yet it is unlikely to...
Traders have lifted the probability of a Bank of England rate hike this year to roughly 50%, up from near‑zero earlier in the month. The shift follows persistent inflation readings and tighter labour market data that suggest price pressures remain...
Irish Minister of State Thomas Byrne warned that the war in the Gulf could cause food prices to rise dramatically, adding to already higher energy costs. He indicated the government will assess support measures within the next week, focusing on...
There are perceived geopolitical risks and then REAL ones. Hormuz is Arrakis as far as we are all concerned. Ukraine war in 2022 was never as big of a risk to the global economy as what is now going on....
Latest from the IEA: - "Speaking with governments" and "closely monitoring" events in the Middle East. - Says global oil market has been "in significant surplus" since the start of 2025. However, "prolonged disruptions could flip the market into a deficit". - IEA...
Saudi Aramco has launched a rare series of spot tenders offering roughly 4.6 million barrels of crude, covering Arab Extra Light, Arab Heavy and Arab Light grades. The move comes as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz forces shipments...
Oil prices surged dramatically on Monday, with Brent crude jumping 27% to $117.58 per barrel and U.S. crude climbing 28% to $116.51, marking the steepest daily gain since at least 1988. The spike follows heightened tensions in the Middle East,...
Bank of Korea Governor Chang Yong Rhee, appointed in April 2022, argues that central banks must broaden their remit beyond pure monetary policy. He has transformed the BoK into a more public‑facing institution, adding video studios, visualizations, staff media training...
Rare earth shortages, especially yttrium and scandium, are tightening for U.S. aerospace and semiconductor manufacturers as Chinese export controls drive prices up to 69 times higher. China still dominates the global rare‑earth value chain, controlling roughly 70% of mining, over...
Rising mortgage rates in Vietnam have surged to 13‑15 % and even 15‑16 % for floating loans, doubling many borrowers' monthly payments and prompting a wave of forced apartment sales. Sellers are slashing prices by 10‑15 % as buyer inquiries fell 20‑28 % month‑on‑month,...
𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 🇿🇦 The SARB’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet 𝐅𝐈𝐕𝐄 more times in 2026. Bookmark these dates 🔻 🇿🇦2̶9̶t̶h̶ ̶J̶a̶n̶u̶a̶r̶y̶ ( Unchanged ) ✅ 🇿🇦26th March 🇿🇦28th May 🇿🇦23rd July 🇿🇦23rd September 🇿🇦19th November
Vietnam's finance ministry announced a proposal to cut the most‑favoured‑nation (MFN) import tariff on selected petroleum products to 0 % effective until 30 April 2026. The move aims to broaden the supplier base and secure crude volumes as the US‑Iran war has disrupted...
South Africa is an oil-importing economy. The South African Reserve Bank is indirectly telling you that interest rate cuts are now off the table, and that if the tension in the Middle East continues, then interest rate hikes can’t be...
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered the worst global energy crisis since the 1970s Who’s to blame for this?
Qatar is pushing back the start of its new LNG expansion project to 2027 🇶🇦⚠️ The move comes after the Ras Laffan facility was hit with an Iranian drone attack This threatens to further curb global gas supply and push back an...
Another really important part of the ECB reaction function; fiscal support. I mean they can’t afford it … but that’s what emergencies are for.
History of IEA collective oil emergecy stockpiles releases (and size; note the size was volume offered): 1991: First Gulf War (~75 million) 2005: Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (~60 million) 2011: Libya civil war (~60 million) 2022: Russia-Ukraine (~180 million in two tranches)
Rising energy prices are pushing up inflation, especially in economies dependent on imported fossil fuels. The durable solution is structural: improve efficiency, accelerate electrification and scale up renewables. Energy policy is economic policy. https://t.co/hmcAVJFLOT
Markets pricing in rate hikes from the ECB, the BoE... and the SNB. You gotta be kidding me.
U.S., Israel Should Withdraw From Strait of Hormuz Area, Says Iranian Envoy—Iran’s ambassador to China denounced the U.S. and Israel as sources of insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz and called on the two governments to withdraw from the area. @ByChunHan...
Demand destruction as we speak, starting with Bangladesh. Thailand and China curbed exports of diesel and gas. Vietnam will do so next.
G7 finance ministers to hold emergency conference call at 12.30pm London time to discuss the impact of the US- -Iran war, Paris said in a statement. According to the Financial Times, several G7 nations favour a release of their Strategic Petroleum...
1/6 SCMP: "The European Union has been urged by the EU’s official think tank to weaponise its giant market to draw concessions from China, whose economic fragility is making it increasingly reliant on rich export markets." https://t.co/haMEakKlUZ via @scmpnews
Today is March 9th. Do you remember March 9th, 2009. That day the equity markets bottomed out after the Global Financial Crisis. Happy Anniversary.
