Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
Bac Ninh Province recorded over US$18.6 billion in registered foreign direct investment in 2025, placing it among Vietnam’s top two FDI destinations. Major infrastructure projects—including the accelerated Ring Road 4 corridor and a new National Highway 3 overpass—have dramatically improved connectivity to Hanoi, Noi Bai Airport and Hai Phong Port. The province’s policy framework now prioritises high‑tech sectors such as semiconductors, AI and data centres, while discouraging labour‑intensive projects. To meet demand, the Yen Phong II‑A industrial park offers 50 hectares of contiguous land and a 199.2 MVA power supply for large‑scale manufacturers.
BNM maintains OPR 2.75%. BNM mentioned “conflict in Mid East” risk: “The MPC acknowledges the uncertainties from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The impact to the global & Malaysian economy will depend on how these developments evolve....
Operations at several Gulf ports have resumed after precautionary shutdowns caused by drone incidents linked to the US‑Iran conflict. Cargo movements between Iraqi ports and regional destinations are proceeding normally, but all tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains...
South Korean President Lee Jae‑Myung ordered an immediate rollout of a 100 trillion‑won (US $68.3 billion) financial package to stabilise capital markets amid the escalating Middle East conflict. The plan targets volatility in stocks and exchange rates while explicitly avoiding direct government share...
Citi placed Coal India Ltd on a 90‑day Upside Catalyst Watch and lifted its target price to ₹430, prompting the stock to climb over 4%. The brokerage cited stronger global coal prices and a potential shift from gas to coal...
India’s IPO market has stalled, with seven of the last eight main‑board listings debuting below their issue prices. The Nifty’s 6% year‑to‑date decline and heightened volatility have curbed investor appetite for new issues. Overpriced offerings such as Omnitech Engineering and...
Indian government bonds rallied on Thursday after a record ₹202 billion (≈$2.19 billion) of bonds were net‑bought by the RBI and institutional investors on Wednesday. The 10‑year benchmark yield steadied around 6.66%, reversing a brief rise, while the rupee strengthened to ₹91.61...
I’m on Bloomberg TV tomorrow at 1pm HKT with the wonderful @JoumannaTV on China, India, Southeast Asia, South Korea, and what the widening conflict in Iran and the Middle East means for the region. Short story - we are buyers...
The Australian Government and industry groups launched the Trade Diversification Network (TDN) on 4 March as part of the $50 million Accessing New Markets Initiative. The network brings together 40 national peak bodies to provide coordinated market‑intelligence, trade services and sector‑specific support...
Anthony Scaramucci’s SkyBridge Capital is leading a “Macro Pivot” as the firm shifts heavy allocation toward macro trading amid heightened inflation, interest‑rate hikes, and geopolitical tension. The move follows a broader industry resurgence of macro strategies that now outperform traditional...
Nvidia is redirecting Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) production capacity away from chips destined for the Chinese market after U.S. export controls limited its sales. The chipmaker is prioritising higher‑margin data‑center and automotive GPUs for customers outside China, while TSMC...
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a national emergency aimed at Cuba, accusing the island of hosting spies and terrorists and threatening tariffs on any nation supplying oil. Following the declaration, U.S. special forces captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, intensifying regional...
Railroads gathered on Capitol Hill to push a modernized 45G tax credit, which reimburses 40% of rail infrastructure spending up to $3,500 per mile. The industry cites more than $8 billion in investments and a 50% reduction in derailments since the...
China announced a 300 billion yuan capital injection into state‑owned banks via a special treasury bond, coupled with deeper reforms of state financial firms. The move targets major lenders such as ICBC and Agricultural Bank of China to shore up capital...
Gold and silver rallied sharply before a 7.7% correction, while the HUI miner index fell from a record 978 to 902. The S&P 500 stayed within a hundred points of its all‑time high, showing little reaction to the Middle East conflict....
Bond options traders are increasingly betting the Federal Reserve will not cut rates this year. The probability of a no‑cut scenario rose to 25% by Wednesday, up from 17% before the Iran‑Israel conflict escalated. Higher oil prices from the Middle‑East...
This is the last point I will make regarding the piece, as I am really glad to see that name calling has resolved to constructive discussion and a genuine exchange of thoughtful commentary like that offered by Professor Damodaran. If you’re...
Small‑cap indices have surged, with the S&P 600 up about 9% YTD and the S&P 400 gaining over 8%, while the S&P 500 remains flat. The rally is tied to the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle, which has lowered rates to 3.5‑3.75% and eased...
On @CNBC in an hour to discuss Asia (China and India). China growth target is soft but same as many expected which is 4.5% to 5%. Defence spending rises officially +7% but many say real spending increase higher. The headlines are really about...
Euro could strengthen with a bigger global role, ECB’s Wunsch says https://t.co/Qg36hBmWVe via @LyubovEUWorld https://t.co/LrN4SLJExv
Port investors are re‑evaluating asset values as global trade patterns shift, despite growing signs of de‑globalisation. The sector’s relative valuation is being reassessed against alternative infrastructure classes, revealing new upside potential. Analysts note that bottlenecks, supply‑chain diversification, and emerging trade...
Have we discounted the IRAN war risk in markets? Using the India VIX to consider the idea that the worst of our fears may already be in the market https://t.co/LzpXAJuIYv https://t.co/H4WBbxWV2k
March 5 (Reuters) - China will push forward early-stage work on the Power of Siberia 2 project, while building the China-Russia Far East natural gas pipeline under its 2026-2030 five-year plan, which was released on Thursday.
Gold and silver prices rebounded on Wednesday as the market digested escalating tensions in Iran. Gold futures rose $28 to $5,152 per ounce while silver futures gained 29 cents to $83.77. The conflict has revived fears of commodity force‑majeure events,...
Same. I wrote about this past few days for clients because too many are complacent: Hormuz Heightens Risk & My Crude Oil Price Target https://t.co/jNvbWvy4Rt
China Signals New Era of Slower Economic Growth—Beijing sets historically low growth target of 4.5% to 5% @hannahmiao_ @TByGraceZhu @ByXiaoXiao https://t.co/o4Z2iYoVdw https://t.co/o4Z2iYoVdw
Oil markets are grappling with heightened volatility as the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one‑fifth of global oil passes—remains effectively shut. The closure is forcing traders to reassess supply‑demand balances for refined products, especially diesel and gasoline, which are seeing...
US plays major catch-up to ex-US YTD... @augurinfinity No longer the worst start to a year since 1995... not by a long shot $SPY $VEU $VTI $ACWI https://t.co/l8DRcKNBof
Israel and the U.S. are steadily eliminating Iran’s top leadership, including figures capable of negotiating an end to the conflict... Join our Analyst Tier on Patreon to watch the full video ➡️ https://t.co/R47Ca3Pp6h #iranwar #military #geopolitics https://t.co/HS9nDRCPcB
European gas prices surged 70 % in a single week as the Middle East conflict intensified, coinciding with historically low storage levels. Despite the spike, EU officials assert there is no immediate risk to gas or oil supplies, citing existing contracts...
Nikkei futures surged 3.8% to 56,310, reversing a 3.6% drop the day before. The index remains up 7.7% year‑to‑date and 45% over the past year, reflecting strong investor appetite for low‑multiple Japanese stocks and tech exposure. The Bank of Japan...
The United States convened a critical‑minerals summit to curb China’s overwhelming role in battery and electric‑vehicle supply chains, but China still controls over 80 percent of global lithium‑ion battery production and 90 percent of grid‑scale storage. Washington has taken minority stakes in...
The escalating U.S.-Israeli war on Iran is spilling over into Africa, where Iran has cemented security ties with Sahelian juntas in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. Western attention is being diverted, prompting the United States to scale back counter‑terrorism support while...
The Bank of Russia has filed a claim at the EU General Court challenging a December 2025 EU regulation that freezes its assets until the European Union’s demands related to Ukraine are satisfied. The bank argues the measure violates the...
Poland’s right wing president Karol Nawrocki is hatching a plan to use the NBP (Polish central bank) to help finance Polish rearmament. Except as Bloomberg notes, legally, the cbank isn’t allowed to finance the govt. Why do they want this?...
South Korea’s Kospi plunged roughly 20% over two sessions, ending a ten‑month rally that had lifted the index nearly 180% on AI‑linked stocks. The sharp equity correction coincided with a modest resurgence in domestic crypto trading, as retail investors reallocated...
I know it's only March but if you know anyone in your family is going to be on the naughty list you may want to consider hedging your future coal purchases with a long $COAL position. You're competing against the...
Europe’s main import gateways suffer from chronic buffer‑capacity shortages, turning port congestion into a persistent bottleneck rather than a fleeting disruption. Industry leaders warn that the lack of short‑term remedies will continue to erode vessel schedule reliability and strain inventory...
The United States is experiencing a prolonged slowdown in real income growth, eroding the optimism that once characterized the post‑war era. Declining private investment rates are identified as the primary engine behind this stagnation, limiting productivity gains and wage increases....
Mark Temnycky argues that Russia’s full‑scale invasion of Ukraine has shattered the post‑Cold War security paradigm in Europe, forcing the United States and its allies to re‑arm and rethink deterrence strategies. He warns that the policy choices made by Washington,...
Banco Santander’s $12.3 billion bid to acquire U.S. regional bank Webster Financial is now under pressure after President Donald Trump announced he would cut off trade with Spain. The political spat, sparked by Spain’s refusal to allow U.S. military use of...
The U.S. Supreme Court’s February 20 decision declared all tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) illegal, immediately halting collection and creating uncertainty for importers. In response, the administration invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act, imposing a...
A potential supply shock emerged as Myanmar's junta reportedly plans airstrikes on rare‑earth mines in the Kachin‑controlled Pang War region. Chinese mining firms responded by raising national flags on sites and ordering bomb‑shelter construction to signal locations to aircraft. China...
Mortgage rates have eased back toward the 5s today, potentially due to oil transport assurances from the President. The 30-year fixed is just 8 bps away from a 5-handle again, despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Jobs report on Friday...
This is a predictable trend and highlights the importance of companies moving supply chains back to the Americas. Middle East today, Asia tomorrow.
I am very confused why they keep downplaying the momentum. They did the same thing in 2020 during the early days of the COVID recovery and were slow to recognize the freight recession in 2022.
Oil and gas price shocks hit emerging markets more than developed. Not to mention South Korea and Japan are major buyers (read: dependent). BOJ inflation-induced rate hike can be pulled forward from my Q3 projection to Q2. $USDJPY
It was actually contracting before, they just lied about the inflation numbers. But nice to see it's contracting so much that they can't cover it up anymore. 🔥🔥🔥
One of the side effects of the blasé market response to the US-Iran conflict is economic concerns seem to readily overridden by inflation expectations from higher energy prices. Expectations for Fed rate cuts through 2026 have dropped to -41bps -...
The February PMI updates came across the wires earlier today - the final readings for much of the developed but first reading for China. Notably, the Chinese gov't's own composite dropped to a 3-year low while the 'RatingDog' surged to...
