Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
NVIDIA has halted production of its China‑focused H200 Hopper GPU at TSMC, leaving roughly 250,000 units in inventory awaiting U.S. export clearance and Chinese import permits. The pause follows export‑control constraints that limit the chips to non‑security‑sensitive applications. NVIDIA plans to reallocate the TSMC capacity to its upcoming Rubin line, which runs on a 3 nm node and different packaging technology. This shift underscores the complexity of navigating geopolitical restrictions while managing advanced semiconductor fab resources.
In 1973, US debt/GDP was 32%, deficit/GDP was 1%, & NIIP/GDP was +10%. There was no level of inflation & rates that could push the US into a debt spiral. Today those #’s are 122%, 6%, & -90%, & 4.8% 10y...
The HFT algos/CTA trend followers don't discount geopolitics very well. If @hkuppy is right, he makes a real case why active management is of ultimate importance when there is a real global change. The VIX is not mean reverting this time,...
NATO secretary‑general Mark Rutte defended his habit of praising U.S. President Donald Trump, acknowledging criticism but insisting the admiration is warranted. He credited Trump with helping NATO adopt a new 5 % of GDP defence‑spending target, a significant increase from the...
Amazon Haul, the low‑price, direct‑from‑China storefront, now hosts 3,287 sellers after launching in November 2024. The platform’s seller base is heavily China‑registered and generates roughly $2 billion in annual GMV, with most sellers offering items under $20. Amazon has backed the...
The Defense Industrial Base Consortium (DIBC) announced that the U.S. military is inviting proposals to develop domestic production of 13 critical minerals, including tungsten, arsenic and nickel, with submissions due March 20, 2026. The request covers the entire value chain—from...
Further to what we said about the impact that the closing of the Strait of Hormuz has on the sulphur market… and therefore African copper production… Craig Tindale maps out that this is only one small piece of a giant...
Today’s podcast discusses a theory of mine on why #mortgagerates are near 6%, with hotter inflation data and the war with Iran driving up oil prices. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #economics #realestate #housing #chartdaddy
More tankers were hit in the Gulf as the US‑Iran conflict intensified, with a Bahamas‑flagged vessel attacked by an explosive‑laden boat and another tanker suffering a port‑side explosion and oil spill. Since the war began Saturday, nine civilian ships have...
Container freight rates on the Asia‑to‑North‑Europe lane have jumped sharply after the outbreak of war in the Middle East. Spot rates are up roughly 20%, while forward contracts for the next weeks and months are priced 20‑30% higher. The surge...
Everyone is talking about ECB rate hike odds by Dec spiking to 60% from 20% BUT Fed Fund futures show less chance of 25bp cut in June than a week ago (before the Iran strikes) When do you think the Federal Reserve...
SONAR introduced two platform enhancements—a Geopolitical Alert on its Executive Dashboard and a Fuel Dashboard within Truckload Insights—to give logistics professionals real‑time visibility into Iran‑related conflict risks and energy price swings. The Geopolitical Alert supplies immediate context, curated resources, and...
Ghana plans to replace its fixed 5% gold royalty with a sliding scale of 5‑12% tied to bullion prices, aiming to capture more revenue as gold hits record highs. A coordinated diplomatic push from the US, China, the UK, Canada,...
China controls roughly 90‑95% of global rare‑earth processing, creating a strategic vulnerability for U.S. defense and high‑tech sectors. In response, REalloys (NASDAQ: ALOY) is building North America’s first fully integrated, China‑free heavy rare‑earth supply chain, with a production facility in...
February was a strong month for Nordic CTA managers, making CTAs the top‑performing sub‑strategy in the Nordic Hedge Index. Gains were anchored by fixed‑income and soft‑commodity profits, with all trend‑following managers posting positive returns. Several non‑trend managers also delivered gains,...
North Korea’s Ninth Party Congress unveiled a five‑year plan focused on stabilization, consolidation and modest qualitative development rather than rapid growth. The agenda places the power sector at the core, linking factory construction, hospital building and agricultural mechanisation to reliable...
Italy announced it will send air‑defence assistance to Gulf states following Iranian strikes, aligning with the UK, France and Germany. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni emphasized the move protects thousands of Italian expatriates and roughly 2,000 troops stationed in the region while...
Fitch Solutions warns that a broader US‑Iran conflict could trigger a sharp currency shock across sub‑Saharan Africa. In a prolonged escalation, Brent crude is projected to trade between $110 and $130 per barrel, raising energy costs and disrupting shipping routes....
Are we finally seeing AI in the productivity data? A big upward revision to earlier data and strong Q4 bring us 2.2% above CBO's pre-pandemic forecast. Annual rates: 1 year: 2.8% 2 years: 2.5% 6 years: 2.2%
"The 2.2-percent annualized rate of nonfarm business productivity growth in the current business cycle thus far is higher than the 1.5-percent rate of the previous business cycle, from the fourth quarter of 2007 through the fourth quarter of 2019, and...
Weekly jobless claims data showed initial filings unchanged at 213,000, while the four‑week moving average slipped to 215,750. Year‑over‑year, initial claims fell 4.9% and the moving‑average declined 4.7%, signaling a continued “new regime” of lower claims that has persisted for...
Past fossil-fuel price spikes left import-dependent countries with two options: pay up or cut fuel use. Now there is an alternative in solar and batteries. I looked at recent examples in Europe, Pakistan and Cuba to glean what might happen...
Bonds have not gotten the safe haven bid since Iran action commenced last Friday evening. $TLT - Rates still moving higher.
Retail experts argue that dynamic pricing can help merchants offset tariff‑driven cost spikes by aligning prices with real‑time demand. The approach builds on traditional markdown optimization, extending it to continuous price adjustments across channels. Altug stresses that supply‑chain resilience—through redundancy...
September 2, 2025: Russia and China sign major new gas pipeline deal March 4, 2026: Putin says Russia may halt gas supplies to Europe https://t.co/kEjAnIqyrP
The impact of the Iran war on container shipping is reaching well beyond the Persian Gulf, creating ripple effects upstream at ports around the world. 1/ 🧵
GMS, the world’s largest cash buyer of ships for recycling, is urging the European Commission to add qualified Indian ship‑recycling yards to the EU Ship Recycling Regulation list. Over 110 Indian yards hold Hong Kong Convention compliance, yet none have been...
China’s lithium supply dominance is hardly being “locked in.” Over the next decade their #1 position over demand will remain but their control over supply will diminish as assets in North America and non Chinese owned assets in South America...
Diesel prices keep surging +$.40/gallon since start of the conflict That is roughly $.06/mile https://t.co/U2lHk2MBhe
Alasdair Macleod warns that an escalating conflict with Iran could ignite a global financial crisis, driving energy prices higher and pushing bond yields sharply upward. He argues that U.S. equities are perched in a dangerous bubble vulnerable to rapid correction....
#tradeXpresso: how important are #MRAs for trade expansion, export diversification and supply chain resilience? If you missed it, catch up with the latest insights from an excellent panel of experts at the @wto #TBT thematic session 👇 https://t.co/NMNgTHfYkC
Over the past 14 months, International stocks have outperformed US stocks by 27%, the widest margin since 1993-94. But zoom out. On a rolling 5-year basis, US stocks have outperformed for 15 years running. This is by far the longest stretch of US...
Hormel Foods reported a sharp rise in transportation expenses during Q1, driven by a severe freight capacity crunch after Winter Storm Fern slashed shipment volumes by 55% in late January. Spot freight rates climbed as driver availability tightened, extending pressure...
The Dollar (blue) has risen sharply above rate differentials (black). That's the best indication this week's Dollar spike is about short-term risk aversion and repatriation flows. Totally short-term and doesn't invalidate Dollar weakness later this year... https://t.co/2nXDj5db75 https://t.co/EXSOCllmRB
Markets are pricing war with Iran as a hawkish shock for the Fed (lhs). But the US rate differential versus its G10 peers is moving against the Dollar (rhs), because central banks outside the US will also be less dovish....
The ECB Governing Council met on 4‑5 February 2026 and kept its three key rates unchanged, signalling a data‑dependent stance through 2027. Market reactions to recent geopolitical and tariff shocks were muted, with the euro gaining about 1 % against the dollar...
Surging crude prices (bottom chart) make "pause" the Fed's default position. 2026 rate cuts down to 39 bps (top chart) https://t.co/Wi5u5aYQXn
This week's rise in USD confounded those who said the US is losing reserve currency status. That's NOT what it's about. Americans repatriate assets when bad shocks hit, like in 2008, 2020 or 2025. A very short-term thing. The Dollar...
Costamare added four more 3,100 teu vessels to its Chinese newbuilding programme, bringing total orders for that size to ten. Deliveries are scheduled between Q4 2027 and Q4 2028, each with medium‑term charter agreements secured at signing. The expansion marks the company’s re‑entry...
In a Riskier Era, China Bets on Technology to Resist U.S. Pressure China announced a 7 percent increase in military spending and a five-year plan to try to reduce its military and industry’s reliance on Western technology. https://t.co/c3cRysLtmX via @NYTimes
A U.S. nuclear submarine torpedoed the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena in international waters off Sri Lanka, killing dozens of sailors. The vessel had been a guest of the Indian Navy after participating in a fleet review in Visakhapatnam, yet New Delhi issued...
When nine justices can redirect global supply chains overnight, it’s fair to ask whether the Court’s structure still fits the modern economy. #SupplyChain #GlobalTrade https://t.co/N2tgQ7sgEX https://t.co/kCnjdrx0CX
Premier Li Qiang presented China’s 2026 government work report, targeting 4.5‑5% GDP growth, a 4% fiscal deficit and a 7% defence budget rise while emphasizing high‑tech self‑reliance. The report highlighted open‑source AI adoption, with firms like DeepSeek leading, as a...
The U.S. is pressuring Ukraine to avoid striking specific Russian energy infrastructure. As you could imagine, this all has to do with American economic interests. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/XGHjzTaHH8 #ukrainewar #militarystrike #geopolitics https://t.co/lB8qnpN0Kx
Great Eastern Shipping announced the purchase of a 2014‑built Japanese kamsarmax of 81,094 dwt, slated to join its fleet in the first quarter of FY27. The acquisition is part of a broader renewal program that swaps older vessels for younger...
The European Investment Bank (EIB) held its annual meetings in Luxembourg, where President Nadia Calviño announced a $1 billion pledge for electrification projects across Africa and introduced a third Gender Action Plan, underscoring a renewed focus on health and gender equity....
India is weighing an emergency directive under Section 11 of its Electricity Act to compel imported‑coal‑fired power plants to increase output ahead of the summer peak. The move comes as seaborne coal prices surge due to the US‑Iran conflict and LNG...
The UK faces renewed fossil‑fuel price volatility after the US‑Israel attacks on Iran, echoing the 2022‑2025 energy shock that cost the EU and Britain $1.8 trillion. Experts and climate groups argue the government must accelerate its clean‑energy transition, focusing on renewables...
In early 2026 the Reserve Bank of India launched its first official podcast, "RBI Talks Paisa to Policy," building on a 2025 web‑series released to celebrate the institution’s 90‑year anniversary. Both initiatives expand RBI’s communications toolkit, which has evolved from...
The war in the Middle East has tightened oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, creating a temporary vacuum that Russia hopes to exploit. While the conflict restricts exports from Saudi Arabia, Iran and other regional producers, Russia’s...
