Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
Bank of Baroda estimates that a 10 percent rise in global oil prices will directly lift India’s Wholesale Price Index by roughly 0.7‑1 percent, potentially reaching a full 1 percent when indirect effects are counted. The surge would push oil imports up by about $18 billion, equivalent to 0.5 percent of GDP, stressing the country’s external position. Crude oil accounts for 10.4 percent of the WPI basket and 6.8 percent of the new CPI series, amplifying inflationary pressure. Despite these headwinds, the bank maintains a FY27 growth forecast of 7‑7.5 percent.
The Iran‑related conflict has nudged global equity markets lower, with Europe’s index down nearly 5 % and the U.S. benchmark off about 1 %. Oil prices surged above $84 a barrel, benefitting energy stocks, while shipping firms posted double‑digit gains despite limited...
The market is eyeing the upcoming Non‑Farm Payroll and U.S. retail‑sales releases after a week of volatility sparked by the U.S.–Iran conflict. Geopolitical tension has nudged the S&P 500 outlook toward the downside, yet it has not yet altered payroll expectations,...
At the FIX EMEA Trading Conference, industry leaders debated the impact of new transparency rules that require exchanges to disclose market‑data margins. The disclosures are prompting a restructuring of pricing models, which many smaller firms fear will raise operational costs....
China is deliberately limiting its involvement in the Iran war while maintaining momentum on high‑level U.S.–China trade talks. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, USTR Jamieson Greer and Vice‑Premier He Lifeng are slated to meet in Paris in mid‑March ahead of a...
Japan is set to revise its 2025 Q4 GDP upward to 0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter, driven by strong winter bonuses and a rebound in capital spending. In China, February CPI is expected to rise to 1.0% year‑on‑year, buoyed by Lunar New Year...
Reliance Industries rerouted two fuel tankers—about 100,000 metric tons of diesel and 75,000 tons of jet fuel—from Europe to Asia as the Iran‑Israel conflict chokes supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Asian jet‑fuel margins surged to a record $80 a...
The United States banned Russian seafood imports in 2022, yet Russian fish continues to appear on American plates through Chinese processing facilities that re‑label the product as Chinese. This loophole exploits the trade‑law concept of "substantial transformation," allowing harvested fish...
Gold prices are being pushed higher as Middle East conflict escalates, with Argonaut raising its 12‑month target to $6,000 per ounce and State Street assigning a 35% probability to a bull case of $5,500‑$6,250. Safe‑haven demand has lifted gold ETF...
JMIC data shows routine commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has virtually stopped, with only two cargo vessels recorded in the past 24 hours versus the usual 138. The pause follows a U.S.–Israel strike on Iran and Iran’s retaliatory...
US critical minerals talks in Caracas signal a push for a formal Venezuelan mining value chain. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/us-critical-minerals-supply-chain-in.html
The International Monetary Fund announced it is prepared to assist nations whose balance‑of‑payments are strained by the escalating Middle East conflict. Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that higher energy prices could lift inflation by 40 basis points and shave up...
Isabel Schnabel, ECB executive board member, urged the EU to create a unified "28th regime" that gives firms seamless access to the entire Single Market. She argued that Europe’s main deficit is scale, not innovation, and that internal regulatory barriers...
Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymaker Hiroshi Himino said underlying inflation is gradually accelerating toward the bank's 2% price‑stability target, while the central bank keeps monetary conditions broadly accommodative. He emphasized that the BOJ will fine‑tune the degree of accommodation but...
The article warns that prediction markets such as Polymarket are becoming real‑time sensors for classified military intent, citing the 2024 Maduro removal bet, a 2026 Israeli insider‑trading indictment, and the failed DARPA Policy Analysis Market. It explains how contract spikes...
The episode examines the fallout from the US‑Israel strike on Iran, with Mike Ferhey explaining how disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on LNG facilities are driving sharp spikes in oil and gas prices, pressuring European energy markets,...
The Philippines, heavily dependent on imported oil, is confronting rising fuel costs driven by Middle East tensions. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. ordered government offices to keep air‑conditioners at a minimum of 24 °C and is exploring flexible or four‑day work weeks...
The market outlook for the coming week centers on four key data releases: Japan’s final Q4‑2024 GDP estimate on Sunday, the Baden‑Wurttemberg state election in Germany on Monday, U.S. February CPI on Wednesday, and the Core PCE price index for...
Myrto Kalouptsidi, a Harvard economist highlighted in the IMF’s *Finance and Development*, studies how maritime shipping underpins roughly $20 trillion of annual global trade. Her research reveals that shipping costs and industrial policies directly shape trade patterns, supply‑chain resilience, and the...
In this episode of This Week in Futures Options, host Mark Longo and CME Group chief economist Eric Norland dissect a volatile week across energy, equity, and crypto markets. They highlight heating oil, crude oil, and natural gas as the...
The Trump‑Xi summit scheduled for late‑2026 follows a fragile 2025 Busan truce that temporarily halted tariffs and export bans. While the pause eased immediate market stress, critical issues such as transshipment tariffs, rare‑earth and high‑end semiconductor controls remain unresolved. Chinese...
Reckitt Benckiser’s CEO Kris Licht declared India and China must‑win markets as middle‑class households there now outnumber those in Europe and the United States combined. Emerging markets now represent about 42 % of Reckitt’s core net revenue, with India and China...
South Korea's headline CPI held at 2.0% year‑on‑year in February, while core inflation rose to 2.3%. Fresh food and petroleum prices fell, but service costs increased, showing lingering price pressure. Higher global oil prices and a weakening won have sharpened...
Australia shipped 91,511 tonnes of chickpeas and 300,009 tonnes of lentils in January, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Chickpea exports collapsed 85% from the December peak of 594,201 tonnes, while lentil shipments slipped 5% from December’s 316,358 tonnes....
The global passenger EV market grew 18% YoY in 2025, pushing battery capacity deployment past 1 TWh for the first time. Raw‑material costs for lithium, graphite, nickel, cobalt and manganese reached $15.6 billion, an 11% rise over 2024 but still half of...
Royal Caribbean Group has presented Panama’s president with a proposal to build a 400‑meter, 130,000‑ton floating dry dock on the Pacific coast near Puerto Armuelles. The facility, slated for operation by 2031, would service the cruise line’s largest ships and...
There is a caveat to the Russia oil waiver for India — “loaded on vessels as of March 5”. The Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is issuing Russia-related General License 133, "Authorizing the Delivery and Sale...
Have been saying for a while that commodities have been way under estimating upside potential(ag in particular) what a little wall street money could do to prices. However, if crude causes the equities to crater it can become “risk off”...
The interview with Oleg Itskhoki examines how Russia employed financial repression in 2022 to weather the largest post‑war sanctions package. By banning cash withdrawals and obligating exporters to surrender foreign‑currency earnings, Moscow halted a ruble freefall and stabilized its fiscal...
NEW: Kazakhstan’s central bank is set to invest up to $350M from its reserves into the crypto sector. The strategy targets crypto-linked equities and funds, not direct purchases of digital assets. The program could start in April or May. https://t.co/RlEGwWKYzs
The euro-area economy expanded less than initially reported at the end of last year https://t.co/flsqVlKh6v via @jrandow https://t.co/OCSdYYfIil
The Asian Development Bank announced a $5.4 billion financing plan for Kazakhstan, a $1.1 billion package for Tajikistan, and a $2.5 billion commitment to Azerbaijan, all aimed at strengthening the Middle Corridor trade route. The bank also launched a technical assistance program to...
International Energy Agency executive-director Fatih Birol just spoke to journalists in Brussels after meeting with EU leaders. Here his main messages from the presser: https://t.co/uzZVrc46zi
The Straight of Hormuz, which is a key shipping lane for the world's oil, fertilizer and other products, is effectively shut. Charts from @bloomberg: https://t.co/zunbN3eO7G
Asian markets posted a modest rebound on Thursday, with only Vietnam slipping, as rising oil prices and heightened tensions over the US‑Israel strike on Iran weigh on sentiment. The US dollar strengthened and European bond yields climbed, while a poll...
The US is temporarily easing sanctions on Russian oil sales to India to address supply shortages and reduce the impact of the surge in prices in the wake of US and Israeli attacks on Iran. The decision to ease sanctions...
Korea is a super interesting case (even before the latest events in the Gulf). Surging current account surplus (10% of GDP), surging domestic stock market and a very weak currency are an unusual combination 1/
Swedish central bank urges public to horde cash in case of payments disruption https://t.co/ckNfNUQsve "The Riskbank is currently working on improving the possibility of making offline payments by card to strengthen resilience." https://t.co/yLYmWsDoh0
Low vol begets high vol, to paraphrase Minsky. Systems trained on Powell, and they all have been trained on Powell, will struggle to interpret Warsh… especially as he himself will struggle with the same.
Update on the Fed’s Balance Sheet and its Reserve Management Purchases. Adding T-bills, shedding MBS, Treasury note & bond balances on ice, SRF unused https://t.co/M947SfSoUP https://t.co/c3uHc5VmGA
China lithium prices tumble as weak EV sales, Middle East war cloud demand outlook https://t.co/8TqB23mggy
Why are we surprised by 👇? I wrote this nearly six years ago, in the context of why the US won’t allow India the same freedom of an undervalued currency that it accorded China: https://t.co/sZ45dDSSRv
According to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, 78% of Americans say inflation is a very big concern for them personally. AFFORDABILITY = GOING TO GET WORSE = TRUMP'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/z3qgrkZ7V2
"We are in the first phase of a great rotation away from the US FANG+ and related stocks, semiconductor, and AI software companies towards oil & gas, utilities, emerging market, and resource stocks, and Treasury bonds." - Marc Faber
This paints a potential scenario for how the dollar index could return to its all time high. Not bc it is great. But bc all other fiat will fail first.
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: After the rupee hit a record low, India’s central bank sold dollars. Then, the Rupee SURGED, with the biggest gain in Asia today. https://t.co/rzGC4rj8Kv
This will help. But crucial to understand: India’s total crude imports are ~5.5 mil b/d. This is a minor offset to 20 mil b/d locked out of the market. Washington appears set on offering a drip-feed of relief to a major oil...
My biggest takeaway right now regarding mortgage rates is to expect heightened volatility. They will likely bounce around a lot more than normal thanks to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The good news is 30-year fixed rates remain near ~3-year...
February was another strong month for the Japanese equity market and for Senjin Capital Fund I. The Fund’s unit price increased 6.7% in AU$ terms, despite a ~3% FX drag from the weakening Yen. The Fund has now returned 48% net of...
Container Shipping Rates Rise as Asian Factories Reopen—But Hormuz Crisis Threatens New Shock. Is it time to stop talking about rates? Instead cite the metrics for container lines and for supply chains? Rethink a new reality of increasing disruption? ...
