Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Oil Hits Highest Level Since US-Iran Ceasefire Began, as Conflict Hurts Gulf Crude Production – as It Happened
Brent crude rose to $105 a barrel, the highest level since the US‑Iran ceasefire was announced in early April, as fighting in the Middle East curtails Gulf crude output. The price surge follows a jump from sub‑$70 earlier in 2026 but remains below the $120‑plus spikes seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Analysts note that while higher energy costs are already denting corporate outlooks, equity markets have shown surprising resilience, betting on a swift end to the conflict. The German economy, heavily dependent on affordable energy, is feeling the early impact of the price rise.
Crude Awakening: Why Energy Shocks Demand More than Quick Fixes
A sudden closure of the Strait of Hormuz has reignited a global energy supply crunch, pushing Brent crude, diesel and jet fuel prices sharply higher and tightening LNG markets. The spike has already lifted fertilizer costs by roughly 25%, threatening...
The Deeper Forces Shaping Global Trade
Global trade is being reshaped by forces beyond tariffs, as technology and economic development drive new production and consumption patterns. While Middle‑East shipping disruptions and uncertain U.S. tariff policy capture headlines, long‑term shifts in digital infrastructure and emerging‑market demand are...
India Procures Spot LPG Cargoes From the US as West Asian Supplies Still Under Cloud
India’s state‑run oil marketing companies are boosting spot LPG purchases from the United States to offset supply uncertainty from the Middle‑East Gulf region. The OMCs already hold a long‑term US contract and have expanded their source pool from 10 to...
What Should Investors Make of the Market’s Pendulum Swing?
Global equity markets rallied as a Middle East ceasefire eased energy‑shock fears. Interest rates retreated after a 40‑plus‑basis‑point hike, supported by strong consumer spending, 178,000 March jobs, and rising PMIs. Diversified portfolios across equities, infrastructure, commodities and gold proved resilient....
Landside Infrastructure Is Container Shipping’s Next Great Chokepoint
Container shipping faces a looming bottleneck on the landside, as stagnant port capacity and inadequate hinterland connections threaten to eclipse current maritime chokepoints like the Red Sea. Trade analysts warn that without significant upgrades, ports will struggle to handle the...
Brent Holds at $105 as Iran Talks Temper Rally
Brent crude held steady at $105 per barrel on April 24 as renewed U.S.–Iran diplomatic talks capped further upside, keeping prices below the $110 threshold. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard seized two container tankers after the U.S. captured the Iranian vessel Touska, heightening...
The Fallout: How the Iran War Is Wreaking Havoc in Africa
The IMF’s April Regional Economic Outlook warns that the Iran war will shave 0.3 percentage points off Sub‑Saharan Africa’s growth, lowering the 2026 forecast to 4.3% and pushing median inflation to about 5%. Currency depreciation, shrinking foreign aid and tighter...
The Case for Making Up with China, and Which Car Company Is Winning the Energy Crisis?
The episode argues that the United States should reconcile with China, emphasizing that improved relations could act as a massive tax cut by leveraging China's unparalleled manufacturing and supply chain capabilities alongside America's strengths in IP, innovation, and capital. The...
Why Are the Saudis Sitting Out the War With Iran?
Saudi Arabia is watching the U.S.-Israel war with Iran from the sidelines while its Vision 2030 megaprojects face budget cuts and timeline extensions. The kingdom’s Public Investment Fund is pivoting toward renewables, advanced manufacturing, logistics and tourism, and Riyadh continues to...
Congress Must Ban Political Threats to Future Fed Chairs
While I admired Tillis's stand for Fed Independence, this was always the problem with his strategy: The President can meet Tillis' threshold of promising promise not to jail *this* end-of-term Fed Chair, but he's kept open the option of threatening...
What China’s New County Reveals About Its Afghanistan Policy
China announced the creation of Cenling County in Xinjiang’s border with Afghanistan’s Wakhan Corridor, a move that extends a series of frontier‑administrative reforms begun in 2024. The new county is positioned to support the long‑discussed Wakhan Road, a potential overland...
The Fed Pivot: Assessing a Potential Generational Shift at the Federal Reserve
The article examines the potential appointment of former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as Jerome Powell’s successor and the policy shifts his leadership could bring. Warsh advocates a more forward‑looking interest‑rate framework that privileges productivity gains, a faster balance‑sheet normalization through...
World War Trade
Richard Baldwin’s new online book, *World War Trade*, chronicles a year of President Trump’s aggressive tariff regime and its fallout. The analysis shows that tariffs intended to boost U.S. manufacturing instead raised consumer prices and strained global supply chains. Baldwin...
Why Investment in Caspian Transit Routes Is Crucial for Energy Security
Investment in Caspian transit routes is accelerating as the Middle Corridor emerges as a strategic alternative to war‑disrupted traditional pipelines. Stakeholders at the Baku forum highlighted new assessments of the CPC, BTC and Baku‑Supsa pipelines, alongside plans for a Turkmen‑Afghanistan‑Pakistan...
Rules for the Rest of Us
The article argues that the Global South’s alternative to existing international rules is not unfettered freedom but a coordinated exercise of collective power. It highlights how Chile, under former President Gabriel Boric, leveraged regional alliances and shared frameworks to amplify its...
Updated April Michigan Survey Results
The University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers released its April update, showing one‑year‑ahead median CPI inflation expectations slipping 10 basis points to 2.9%. At the same time, the consumer‑sentiment index rose two points, its strongest reading since early 2022. The...
Daily Memo: EU Announces New Sanctions on Russia
The European Union approved its 20th sanctions package against Russia, widening curbs on oil exports. The new measures place 46 additional tankers on a sanctions list and prohibit technical maintenance and related services for Russian tankers and icebreakers. Transactions with...
Strait Worries Intensify As US-Iran Stalemate Drags On
The United States and Iran remain locked in a stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz, with Iranian envoy Abbas Araghchi negotiating in Pakistan, Russia and Oman under constraints from IRGC chief Ahmad Vahidi. Pentagon planners are weighing options ranging from...
Breakbulk26: War-Related Financial, Schedule Shocks Ahead for Energy Projects
War‑related disruptions are delivering a sharp financial shock to the project cargo sector, with shippers facing rising costs and looming schedule delays. Fluence Energy’s logistics chief warned that the impact will intensify in the fall, prompting the company to pre‑order...
Record Mortgage Renewals Spur Higher Rates, Dampening Spring Market
Will Higher Fixed Mortgage Rates Slow Down An Already Slow Spring Real Estate Market? PROBABLY Thing is when you're coming off ridiculously low 2025 Home Sales numbers in BC & Ontario: a very small increase in resales is inevitable But very bad...
EU's Regulatory Push Risks Own Economic Decline
The risk with the Brussels Effect strategy (“EU as the world’s regulator”) was always that it could catalyze a vicious cycle that suppresses regional GDP per capita and thus the EU’s leverage. Add to it a US administration willing to characterize...
Atlantic Council Front Page Event with U.S. Trade Rep. Jamieson Greer Cited in Bloomberg on the Issue of Transshipment Under...
Bloomberg reported that U.S. imports worth roughly $300 billion have been rerouted through third‑country transshipment to sidestep tariffs imposed under the Trump administration. The practice exploits a loophole in the United States‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement (USMCA) that allows goods to retain preferential status...
Trump May End Probe, Threatening Powell’s Fed Chairmanship
Rumor has it Trump will drop the probe against Powell, which could end his tenure as Fed chairman. #mortgagerates #realestate #economics #inflation #chartdaddy
Iran's Hidden Tanker Fleet Keeps Oil Flowing Despite Pentagon Denial
While the Pentagon scrambles to deny it, Iran’s ‘dark fleet’ of tankers remains intact and is still moving oil. HANKE’S 95% RULE: 95% OF THE STATEMENTS FROM THE PENTAGON ARE EITHER WRONG OR IRRELEVANT. https://t.co/le11vToaZG
Mongolia Is Redefining Steppe Diplomacy With Kazakhstan
Mongolian President Khurelsukh Ukhnaa completed the first state visit to Kazakhstan in two decades, cementing a strategic partnership first announced in 2024. The leaders signed 13 agreements covering trade, energy, mining and agriculture, and set a goal to raise bilateral...
Eurozone PMI Drops to 3‑year Low, Economy Tanks
The Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has just hit 48.6. That’s its lowest level in 3 YEARS. Due to the EU’s proxy war against Russia & the US-Israeli war in Iran, Europe is TANKING. https://t.co/lxE3Z7jMDu
FT: Treasury's ESF Cash‑strapped Compared to Emirates' Central Bank
The FT notes that the Treasury's ESF appears cash constrained relative to even the Emirates' central bank, let alone the Emirates sovereign funds 1/ https://t.co/pOSa75xpDy
China to Tighten Rules on US Tech Investment
Chinese regulators, led by the National Development and Reform Commission, are set to require government approval for any U.S. investment in sensitive technology firms, including AI startups. Private tech companies have been instructed to reject U.S.-linked capital in funding rounds...
10-Year Yield Rises After Powell Probe Dropped
10yr bond yield relative to CNBC's announcement at 10:17am ET that investigation into Powell has been dropped (clearing the way for Warsh) src for intra-day chart: BBG https://t.co/TpnqqO9bLw https://t.co/UOy5Qt22Dt
Japan's Low Inflation Mirrors Sluggish Money Supply Growth
Japan’s inflation rate comes in at 1.5%/yr in March, BELOW its 2%/yr target. JP’s money supply (M2) is growing at 2.03%/yr, WELL BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of~6.07%/yr, a rate consistent with JP’s 2%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY...
Orbán’s Election Loss Frees up €90 Billion for Kyiv but Raises Thorny Question of EU Membership for Ukraine
The EU has unlocked a €90 billion ($97 bn) loan to Ukraine after Hungary’s new government dropped its veto. The disbursement coincides with the EU’s 20th sanctions package against Russia, tightening pressure on Moscow. While the funding fills critical financing gaps for...
Independent Fed's Inflation Focus Could Thwart AI Takeover
Has anyone made the argument yet that an independent Fed, firmly focused on its inflation target, will be one of our most important bulwarks against complete AI takeover? As long as policy prioritizes stable *consumer* prices, that puts a brake resource...
Strait of Hormuz Declared Open, yet Traffic Declines
He might still be in X jail, but interesting note from @sonusvarghese here. Last Friday (April 17th), President Trump and Iran’s foreign minister declared that the Strait of Hormuz was open. Over the past week, tanker crossings across the Strait have...
Island's Inflation Rate Is 2.7%, New Figures Show
Jersey’s retail price index (RPI) rose 2.7% year‑over‑year to March 2026, a slight dip from the 2.8% recorded in the previous quarter. Energy costs surged, with heating oil and other fuels up 31.9% amid the Middle East conflict. Food and drink...
Trump Increasingly Eyes Critical Minerals in Trade Policy Strategy
Washington is making critical minerals a cornerstone of its trade strategy, targeting African producers as key partners. Recent US trade agreements with Ukraine and Malaysia embed preferential access for American firms while restricting ties with rivals like China, signaling a...
U.S. Rare‑Earth Dependence Gives China Leverage Over Iran
"There is only one ring in the world that Trump would ever kiss and its Xi's" @pboockvar on America's reliance on Chinese rare earth materials and how it could facilitate an end to the conflict in Iran https://t.co/MTKk4iotX0
IGC Pares Global Grain Output Projections for 2026-27 by 3 Million Tonnes
The International Grains Council lowered its 2026‑27 global grain output forecast by 3 million tonnes to 2.414 billion tonnes, citing fertilizer affordability concerns tied to the West Asia war. The cut applies across major crops, including wheat and maize, and reduces the...
What if a US-Iran ‘Joint Venture’ Emerges: Four Trajectories for Global Shipping
Former President Donald Trump floated the idea of a U.S.-Iran joint venture to collect tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, sparking speculation about how such a partnership could reshape global shipping. Analysts outline four possible trajectories: a formalized toll regime,...
Trump's Trade War Timeline 2.0: An Up-to-Date Guide
The updated Trade War Timeline 2.0 chronicles every official U.S. trade action taken during President Donald Trump’s second term, which began in 2025. Authored by PIIE economist Chad P. Bown, the guide links to a public spreadsheet that details tariffs,...
Chhangani’s CIPS Data and Lipsky Cited in NY Times Article
The New York Times cited Atlantic Council experts Alisha Chhangani and Josh Lipsky in a piece on China’s Cross‑Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and its growing role in Iran’s trade. Chhangani’s data show CIPS transaction volumes with Iran surged to...
Donovan and Nikoladze Cited in FXStreet Article Stating that Central Banks Building up Gold Reserves to Shield From Sanctions or...
In a recent FXStreet analysis, Atlantic Council experts Kimberly Donovan and Maia Nikoladze highlighted a surge in central‑bank gold purchases. They argue that banks are stockpiling the metal to hedge against potential sanctions and a looming financial crisis. The commentary...
Iran's Oil Sales Surge, Economy Strengthens Amid War
My take on @PalisadesRadio on why Iran is winning: "Since the US-Israeli war on Iran began, Iran has been selling more crude at HIGHER PRICES. Iran’s oil revenue has increased, the rial has appreciated, & inflation has come down." https://t.co/6yxURxFAlZ
Sovereign Debt Reset Barely Pauses for Reflection
The IMF and World Bank convened their spring meetings without headline‑grabbing defaults, but sovereign‑debt initiatives dominated the agenda. An official‑private sector forum, born out of the Russia‑Ukraine crisis, reported that five restructuring cases are near completion, with Ethiopia the only...
US Imports Reroute $300B, Avoiding Tariffs Without New Supply Chains
"Rerouted U.S. Imports Avoiding Trump’s Tariffs Top $300B" https://t.co/UCqTwWQt8B "rerouting in response to tariffs is not being accomplished by building new capital-intensive supply chain relationships" 😲 https://t.co/4HbFA3ynRv
Chhangani’s CIPS Data and Lipsky Cited in Article by The Economist Discussing the Positive Impacts of the America-Iran War on...
The Economist cited research from Chhangani and Lipsky showing that the ongoing America‑Iran conflict has boosted the adoption of China’s Cross‑Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS). Data indicate a roughly 40% jump in CIPS transaction volume as Iranian firms seek alternatives...
Lichfield’s Testimony Quoted in House of Lords’ International Relations and Defense Committee’s 3rd Report of Session 2024–26
Charles Lichfield, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, was quoted in the House of Lords International Relations and Defense Committee’s third report for the 2024‑26 session. His testimony emphasized the urgency of bolstering UK defence spending, deepening NATO interoperability, and...
Mühleisen’s Interview with Luxembourgish Minister Pierre Gramegna Featured in a European Stability Mechanism Article
The Atlantic Council published an interview conducted by Mühleisen with Luxembourg’s Finance Minister Pierre Gramegna, focusing on the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). Gramegna outlined Luxembourg’s support for strengthening the ESM’s capital framework and expanding its crisis‑response tools. He also stressed...
Atlantic Council Front Page Event with World Bank Group President Ajay Banga Featured in Reuters Article on Funds for Countries...
World Bank President Ajay Banga announced at an Atlantic Council Front Page event that the institution could mobilize up to $100 billion to support countries devastated by war. The proposed financing package would combine concessional loans, grants, and guarantees to spur...
Banque De France Governor François Villeroy De Galhau’s Speech From the Atlantic Council Featured in Banque De France Article
Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau delivered a speech at the Atlantic Council that was subsequently highlighted in a dedicated Banque de France article. He underscored the strategic value of a robust transatlantic partnership for monetary stability, digital‑currency...