Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
US Eyes Ag Outcomes From Trump’s May China Visit
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told the House Ways and Means Committee that President Trump’s upcoming China visit will seek a broader agricultural commitment beyond soybeans. The administration also flagged a tough stance toward Canada as the US‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement (USMCA) review begins in July. Greer highlighted concerns over low‑cost Mexican fruit and vegetable imports and raised dairy and turkey tariff‑rate quota issues with Canada. Ongoing investigations leave the timing and scope of future tariffs uncertain.
Bessent Says 'Many' U.S. Allies Have Asked for Currency Swaps Amid Iran War Turbulence
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a Senate appropriations hearing that many Gulf allies, including the United Arab Emirates, have asked for dollar‑denominated currency swap lines to offset the economic shock from the Iran‑U.S. conflict. A swap line would provide...
S&P Earnings Growth Likely Peaks 2028‑2030 After Rate Cut
Street consensus, S&P 500 earnings growth: 2026: +21.8% 2027: +14.8% Those are big, tough-to-achieve numbers. But look at the historic record. The S&P's earnings growth rate historically peaked 40 to 76 months after the first Fed rate cut. Yes, forty to seventy-six. Powell...
Question Time: Age of Scarcity and Energy Prices (VIDEO)
Alhambra Research’s Bob Williams examines the emerging "age of scarcity" in a new video, highlighting how constrained energy supplies are driving unprecedented price spikes. He links tighter oil and gas markets to higher inflation, reduced corporate margins, and shifting geopolitical...
Extra Credit
Loomis Sayles’ Q1 outlook highlights rising geopolitical risk from the U.S.–Israel‑Iran conflict, which lifted energy prices and pushed the 10‑year Treasury yield from 4.17% to 4.32%. Despite these headwinds, corporate fundamentals remain solid, and earnings growth is seen as the primary...
Canadian Businesses Brace For 5 Years of High Inflation: BoC Survey
Canadian firms are now bracing for a five‑year stretch of elevated inflation after the Iran war sparked a sharp rise in expectations. The Bank of Canada’s Q1 Business Outlook Survey shows one‑year CPI forecasts climbing to 3.8%, with two‑year outlooks...
Breakbulk26: Loss of Persian Gulf Oil Supplies Difficult to Replace Quickly
At the Breakbulk26 conference, S&P Global Energy’s Amy Groeschel warned that the war in the Middle East could trap roughly 16 million barrels of crude and refined product in the Strait of Hormuz each day, a volume that cannot be replaced quickly....
EU Majority Resists French Call to Overhaul US Trade Deal
France is urging the EU Council to embed new safeguards into the EU‑U.S. Turnberry trade agreement, including a sunrise clause linking tariff removal to U.S. steel duties and a sunset clause that would end the pact in March 2028. A...
Oil Prices Rise Despite US-Iran Ceasefire Extension
Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday as Brent crude approached $100 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose above $90, despite the United States extending a cease‑fire with Iran. The extension has done little to ease market nerves, with...
The War in Iran Is Giving Accountants Economic Jitters
The Q1 2026 Global Economic Conditions Survey shows CFO confidence slipping to its lowest point since the pandemic, driven largely by the war in Iran. Geopolitical instability rose to the top risk priority for accountants, overtaking inflation and interest‑rate concerns....
The Tariff Refund Process Has Begun for Businesses. What About Customers?
The U.S. Customs and Border Protection has launched an online portal to begin refunding $166 billion in tariff revenue, but refunds are paid to the importer of record, not directly to consumers. Shipping giants DHL, FedEx and UPS said they will...
The AI Boom Is Single-Handedly Carrying the U.S. Import Market—And Adding $200 Billion to the Trade Deficit, Fed Study Finds
The Federal Reserve’s Minneapolis branch reports that AI‑related products accounted for 23% of U.S. imports in 2025, driving a 73% year‑over‑year surge that dwarfs the 3% rise in non‑AI goods. AI imports totalled roughly $265 billion versus $71 billion in exports, adding...
With No End in Sight in Hormuz, Get Income ETFs Now
Income-focused exchange‑traded funds have surged since the 2019 ETF rule, and active managers are now positioning them as a hedge against market turbulence. American Century’s short‑duration SDSI and multisector MUSI ETFs charge 0.32% and 0.38% expense ratios respectively, delivering yields...
Is a Perfect Financial Storm Gathering?
A confluence of three forces is creating what authors call a perfect financial storm: shadow banking is expanding at a breakneck pace, public debt in major economies is climbing toward historic highs, and the post‑2008 regulatory reforms remain only partially...
Trump’s False Price Promises Fuel Voter Anger, Zero Inflation Expectations
Fascinating Krugman Substack: https://t.co/6jRnFjpU3x 👉"So what explains the public’s anger? My hypothesis is that it has a lot to do with the fabulist promises Trump made during the 2024 campaign, when he asserted that grocery prices would come down “on Day...
US ESF's Dollar Holdings Too Small for GCC Support
ESF isn't all that big -- And its liquid dollar assets are actually quite small Lines for all US allies in the GCC would be small v many countries existing reserves (let alone their SWFs) and would have to be funded out...
Gold Price Halts Two-Day Decline with US-Iran Ceasefire Extended
Gold prices halted a two‑day decline on Wednesday, stabilising above $4,700 an ounce after President Donald Trump announced an extension of the US‑Iran ceasefire. The pause follows more than 10% losses since the conflict began, as investors reassess geopolitical risk...
Oil Rises, Asian Stocks Mostly Fall After Trump Extends Ceasefire
President Donald Trump announced an extension of the U.S.–Iran cease‑fire, prompting Brent crude to climb above $100 a barrel and WTI past $90. Asian equity markets slipped, with Hong Kong and Sydney indexes falling more than 1%, while Tokyo and Shanghai...
Late Stablecoin Adoption Risks Economic Obsolescence
Countries slow to adopt stablecoins will face the same problem as late internet adopters. Sending money across borders still costs 6% and takes days, while stablecoins settle in seconds for fractions of a cent with no intermediaries sitting in the...
Fed Governor Waller Flags Volatile Payroll Swings Ahead of FOMC Decision
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller told an audience in Auburn, Alabama, that the labor market’s “head‑snapping volatility” – with payroll gains swinging from a 160,000 increase in January to a 133,000 loss in February – complicates the Fed’s outlook ahead...
Daily Energy Report
Global crude floating storage has climbed to its highest level since the summer of 2020, according to Kpler’s weekly data for 2025‑2026. The surge follows the onset of the Iran‑related conflict and the resulting Hormuz Strait bottleneck, which have forced...
UNCTAD and Singapore Team Up to Green Global Maritime Transport
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and Singapore’s Maritime and Port Authority have signed a partnership to fast‑track the shift toward sustainable, resilient maritime transport. The deal leverages Singapore’s port efficiency and UNCTAD’s development expertise to promote...
Azerbaijan’s Central Bank Holds USD Rate at 1.7 Manat, Signals Policy Steadiness
The Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) published its official exchange rates for April 22, leaving the US dollar fixed at 1.7 manat. Euro, Turkish lira and Russian ruble rates were also unchanged, providing a clear benchmark for traders and signaling continuity...
Market Wrap
Markets have been volatile this month as Iran‑related tensions lift the VIX to around 25, a level that signals moderate investor anxiety but not a crisis. Economic data remain upbeat: the Dallas Fed Weekly Index sits at 2.9, industrial production...
Ceasefire Deadline Fuels Oil Market Jitters as US‑Iran Talks Stall in Islamabad
U.S. President Donald Trump signaled he will not extend the two‑week ceasefire with Iran, while Iran’s chief negotiator warned against talks under threat. The standoff threatens to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, keeping oil markets on edge as the...
Structural Reforms for Long-Term Progress
The Philippines government has rolled out a series of short‑term relief measures, including a grocery price freeze until May 10 and temporary loan‑payment grace periods, to cushion households from rising costs. Inflation surged to 4.1% in March 2026, driven largely by...
ASEAN for Peace and Prosperity, Trade with China
ASEAN’s 14‑point chair statement, issued by the Philippines, reiterates a commitment to peace, open trade and regional energy resilience, highlighting frameworks such as the ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement, Power Grid and Trans‑ASEAN Gas Pipeline. The Philippines, while chairing ASEAN, is...
The AI Economy Runs on Helium. The Iran War Just Created a $650 Billion Problem
Moody’s Ratings warns that the Iran‑Israel conflict has disrupted Qatar’s Ras Laffan helium plant, creating a $650 billion supply‑chain risk for the AI economy. Helium, essential for wafer cooling, carrier gas and leak detection in semiconductor fabs, has no industrial substitute. The...
China’s Real Challenge: Weak Domestic Consumption, Not US Asset Harvest
Agree it's an interesting paper, but largely because it is based on a false premise. China's core strategic challenge is NOT "how to 'harvest' US relinquishing assets." China's core strategic challenge is how to address inadequate (and falling) domestic consumption...
Trimmed‑average Inflation: Only Gauge Still Trending Lower.
Yesterday, Kevin Warsh said he favors using trimmed-average inflation measures... Of course he does.... It’s probably the only “inflation” gauge still somehow trending lower. Yep.... I’ll say it again: None of us own enough hard assets. https://t.co/psqdXXGW7Q https://t.co/LS43LWLsQe
Ocean Shipping Surcharges Spurred by Iran War Weigh on Contract Talks
Ocean carriers are adding fuel surcharges and higher rates as the Iran‑triggered closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushes oil prices up. Shippers negotiating new ocean‑shipping contracts are grappling with these extra costs, while the Federal Maritime Commission has pushed...
Presidents' Oil Price Moves During Hormuz Crisis
A brief history of presidential oil price jawbones through the Hormuz crisis. Feel free to add your favourites below. https://t.co/iF0JvVgn0v
Somalia's Israel Ship Ban Threatens Bab Al-Mandeb Stability
Somalia. Ban on Israel ships. Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Ban or more pirate attacks? Global maritime is showing signs of upheaval.
Strait of Hormuz Is Hosting Gunboat Diplomacy as US and Iran Vie for Most Effective Blockade
The Strait of Hormuz has turned into a naval showdown as the United States and Iran vie for dominance after President Trump shelved a planned air strike. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is seizing and firing on commercial vessels, while the U.S....
Indonesia's Strait Fee Sparks UNCLOS, Supply‑Chain Turmoil
Indonesia. Impose fee on ships going thru the Strait of Malacca. Learned money lesson from Iran. UNCLOS? Will there be military action to stop it? More maritime and supply chain hell.
Ship Seizures Signal Iran’s Growing Control of Hormuz
Ship Seizures Mark New Phase in Iran’s De Facto Control of Hormuz. With extended ceasefire. The situation looks shaky. https://t.co/pThf20VEbW
Warsh Calls Core PCE ‘Rough Swag,’ Favors Trimmed Mean
At his confirmation hearing, Warsh dismissed core PCE as "rough swag" and said he'd prefer to focus on better gauges of underlying inflation like median or trimmed mean. This got attention because Dallas Fed trimmed mean was 2.3% in February (y/y)—well...
Iran Conflict: Strategic Threat or Opportunity for China?
Is the Iran war a strategic threat or an opportunity for China? https://t.co/E82r5V2x3h @QamarEnergy @TheNational
Mapping Hormuz Bypass Easy, Execution Far More Challenging
Bypassing Hormuz: “You can draw beautiful lines on the map. To try to make it happen in reality is something else.” @QamarEnergy @ColumbiaUEnergy @rfelliott https://t.co/JKNGbORqzA
Korean Equities Soar While Currency Fundamentals Crumble
Crazy retail outflows into levered US stock funds -- and a national pension service that is a structural source of weakness in the won (by design) and that the Koreans have had trouble turning off even when it worked at cross...
Retail Sales Soar as Consumer Confidence Hits Record Low
US Retail Sales hit another all-time high while Consumer Sentiment is at its lowest level in history. Watch what they do, not what they say. https://t.co/mZJ1r5oqcI
Iran War's Ripple Effect on UK and Global Economy
Catch my take at 18:10 on the impact of the Iran War on the UK, European and global economy #bbcnews
US Flips From Trillion Promises to Billion Bailouts
Amazing how fast the US has swung from hyping the "trillions" it was going to get from the oil sheiks and Asia ... to talking about providing those same countries with billions in bailouts (swaps ... ) 1/ https://t.co/rAOp6Do3pc
China's Consumer Rebound Hinges on Three E‑commerce Giants
China's consumer rebound isn't a headline. It's a tape. Alibaba, JD, Pinduoduo: the three names that make or break the story. @KraneShares lays it out. https://t.co/87UdsGYIfb
U.S. Aims for Expanded China Agricultural Trade Deal
🇺🇸🇨🇳The U.S. will be seeking a wider agreement on agricultural trade purchases from China when Trump and Xi meet next month. https://t.co/eXKPiy2XZF
Warsh's Potential Fed Reforms Analyzed by Experts
Read this morning’s rundown from me and @samjsutton about reforms Warsh might make to the Fed: https://t.co/bBY0mNIO8y
Iran Conflict Expands Beyond Energy to All Sectors
The Iran war is no longer just an energy story - it's becoming an everything story.... https://t.co/TDBA7DATcU
Cash Surges in 2025, Boosting Fed Balance Sheet
𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐢𝐬 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐝. 𝐋𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐥𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐡. The @NewYorkFed's SOMA annual report shows currency growth accelerated in 2025! This is a bit surprising given the digital age, but it bodes well for the Fed's balance sheet and operating income. (1/7) https://t.co/jvk7p0srbM
Global Institutions Pivot to Interventionist Economic Policies
What a world... The IEA is now an energy transition shop. The World Bank now embraces industrial policy for development. Next you're gonna tell me the IMF now supports total capital controls...
Watch All Markets Simultaneously for Edge
Risk-on: equities up, credit tight, EM leads, dollar weak. Risk-off: Treasuries rally, gold bid, yen strengthens, defensives lead. Most investors watch one market. The edge is watching all of them simultaneously. Divergence is the warning. $TLT $GLD $EEM https://t.co/wrXRW1Rzy6