Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
The article clarifies that “rare metals” and “rare earth elements” are distinct concepts. Rare metals are an industrial label for low‑volume, supply‑concentrated metals often produced as by‑products, while rare earths are a scientifically defined group of 17 elements. Key examples include cobalt, gallium, and indium for rare metals, and neodymium, dysprosium, and scandium for rare earths. The strategic challenge lies in supply chain concentration and refining capacity, not geological scarcity.
U.S. and Chinese officials have begun talks to revive reciprocal investment ahead of President Donald Trump's scheduled visit to Beijing. Both sides are exploring structured joint ventures and licensing arrangements, with Beijing demanding stronger protection for its firms and Washington...
Gold futures surged roughly $100 on Monday, briefly topping $5,400 as investors fled to the traditional safe‑haven amid a new Middle East conflict. In contrast, silver futures slipped $3.62, ending near $89.80 after a volatile swing between $86.73 and $97.30....
ISM vs Bitcoin relationship is more correlation than causation. The difference today compared to past cycles is credit spreads were wide to start the PMI rebound, due to prior growth scares that led to risk off environments. Since 2022, spreads...
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is running 70% below normal. Roughly 150 tankers are stranded in the Strait. If that’s not bad enough, the IRGC adviser, Sardar Jabari, stated, “Not a single drop of oil will leave the region.” https://t.co/A4WO3ah53J
UK inflation fell to a ten‑month low in January, reviving hopes of a Bank of England rate cut in March. However, gilt yields surged, with five‑year yields up 19 basis points, ten‑year up 14 basis points and two‑year up 12...
I very much agree with this. For most products and for most countries (the US is now an exception, China has been a bit of an exception) tariffs are already generally low, so the incremental impact of a classic free trade...
“Right now, the economy is doing fine, asset prices are high…I think the probabilities of something going south are more than other people think..I think inflation will cause the economic downturn:” JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon https://t.co/xB4HN6ITSk
The United States and Israel launched a strike against Iran, dominating global headlines as China prepares for its annual Two Sessions. Beijing’s response has been limited to diplomatic condemnations, mirroring its usual stance in such crises. Iranian crude accounts for...
After Trump’s tariffs were ruled unlawful by the US Supreme Court, he is now dragging his feet and refusing to refund Americans who were illegally TAXED by tariffs. https://t.co/vlXQUbwjEo
Some basic oil shock math, focusing on the impact on global trade ... Remember that we are starting from an unusually low surplus in the fuel exporting economies ... 1/ https://t.co/WIeQBspqCY
Ukraine’s domestically produced FP‑5 Flamingo cruise missile achieved a landmark strike in February, hitting the Votkinsk missile‑production complex deep inside Russia. The missile, developed by startup Fire Point, boasts a claimed 3,000‑kilometre range and a payload of over one tonne,...
According to @Polymarket, there is a 48% chance that the Iranian regime will fall before 2027. Trump is engaged in a risky operation. THE HISTORY OF REGIME CHANGES = FAILURE. https://t.co/xdpgxVS4Gd
.@Aligarciaherrer: “They cut prices aggressively, not because they’re getting leaner…but because everyone else is doing it and they fear losing customers…Unproductive companies are hurting the productive ones, which is…not good for the Chinese economy.” https://t.co/ZakESJy4Fc
In a recent Morgan Stanley interview, legendary macro investor Stanley Druckenmiller explained that contrarianism is often overrated and that true returns come from anticipating shifts in perception. He highlighted his successful bets on Teva Pharmaceuticals, which doubled after the market...
"Tariffs Force Down Heavy Equipment Sales and Jobs" https://t.co/gAxfFeOvbe "it is more economical to build a forklift overseas, import it and pay the tariff" "multiple layers of tariffs on inputs have made it even more expensive to build machinery on American soil"...
Jeff Gundlach: “My recommendation is that US Dollar based investors should be investing in foreign markets in foreign currencies. Because the US Dollar appears to be in a long-term bear market” https://t.co/b2PwOxuvyI
The US‑Iran conflict has driven NYMEX heating‑oil futures up more than 12%, causing diesel premiums at Brazilian ports to more than double within a day. Spot‑market diesel deals are expected to grind to a halt as import costs surge and...
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that gross operating profits across private‑sector firms rose 5.8% in the December quarter, driven largely by an 8.1% surge in mining profits. Mining sales grew 1.2% and inventories increased 0.7%, while wages in the...
Oil prices continued to rise as the United States and Israel escalated military actions against Iran, prompting Tehran to threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz and launch drone attacks on the U.S. embassy in Riyadh. Brent crude climbed above...
Oil prices jumped nearly 10 % after Iran’s retaliatory strikes, prompting JPMorgan to warn that Brent could reach $120 per barrel if Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist. Pakistan, which imports 85 % of its crude, faces a current‑account deficit increase of $1.5‑$2 billion...
Global equities fell on March 2 as escalating Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher, reviving inflation concerns. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped up to 2%, with South Korea’s Kospi sliding more than 4% after a long‑weekend session. U.S. S&P 500...
RSPG, the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Energy ETF, offers investors exposure to 22 U.S. energy companies positioned to benefit from rising oil prices amid the Iran conflict. Its equal‑weight methodology normalizes valuation outliers and reduces concentration risk, eliminating the...
US‑Israeli attacks on Iran have halted vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening paraxylene (PX) shipments from Saudi Arabia's Jubail port to the US Gulf Coast. While 56% of US PX imports come from Saudi Arabia, roughly half load...
Brazil is accelerating toward becoming the world’s fourth‑largest oil producer, buoyed by its 2025 entry into OPEC+ and a massive offshore pre‑salt development program. The pre‑salt basins, which contain 81% of the nation’s proven reserves, are driving a 14.6% jump...
Oil, LNG Prices Spike as Iran Conflict Continues Ron Bousso, senior columnist for Thomson Reuters, discusses oil, LNG markets and the likelihood that Middle Eastern tensions will keep prices high. #IranWar #IranIsraelWar https://youtu.be/TyuJU-0pvIo
Missouri farmer Brian Willott warns that Brazil’s expanding double‑cropping of corn and soy is intensifying global competition for U.S. grain. He argues that U.S. corn’s quality edge must be leveraged to secure premium prices and new export markets. Willott also...
Re‑export demand for diammonium phosphate (DAP) at New Orleans lifted prices to $650 per short tonne, a 4% rise from the previous week. About 30,000 st were sold for re‑export, mainly to a Latin‑American distributor, while 170,000 t of DAP arrived at Nola...
Middle‑East hostilities have forced Qatar to shut its flagship LNG export plant and Saudi Arabia to pause operations at its largest oil refinery, while tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly stopped. The disruptions arrive amid a global...
The early stages of the Iran‑U.S./Israel war have pushed investors toward the dollar as a safe‑haven asset. While the dollar is currently strengthening, the article warns that a protracted conflict could unleash currency‑market turbulence reminiscent of the 1970s transition to...
Spot ammonia prices in the US Corn Belt surged on March 2, with CF Industries raising offers to $760‑$850 per short ton at inland locations. The jump reflects strong pre‑plant fertilizer demand and a tightening nitrogen market influenced by the Middle...
Operation Epic Fury, the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran, is driving heightened volatility across global markets. Oil and natural‑gas prices have surged, prompting a risk‑off shift in equities and signaling inflation concerns in bond yields. Municipal bond investors face uncertain supply‑demand...
CFOs are grappling with sudden tariff volatility after the Supreme Court struck down Trump‑imposed duties, only for the administration to reimpose a 10% flat tariff that quickly rose to 15%. The back‑and‑forth has left manufacturers uncertain about sourcing, lead times,...
Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the Iran‑Israel conflict threatens to choke oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude futures to their highest level in over a year. Higher energy prices could lift inflation and undermine the...
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady, prompting the dollar index to climb and Treasury 10‑year yields to rise about nine basis points. Higher yields reflect tighter monetary expectations, while the 10‑year TIPS also edged up six...
The United States and Israel launched a massive air campaign against Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sinking warships and striking more than 1,000 targets. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth framed the operation as a focused effort to destroy Iran’s...
The cost of leaching copper oxide ore in the Central African Copperbelt is about to get even more expensive. In the past few days a number of Middle Eastern Oil refineries have been attacked / closed. In addition, exports through...
“It’s very obvious that there’s a lot of fragility in the market… and it’s very hard to bet on crypto if you think that the equity market might take a real bath here.” https://t.co/oUCYvsFWWo
The U.S.–Israel air strikes on Iran on Feb. 28 have heightened geopolitical risk, creating a fluid credit environment that could swing from rapid de‑escalation to a protracted regional war. DoubleLine’s Global Sovereign Debt team entered the episode with a defensive posture,...
Iran says the Strait is closed. The U.S. military says it’s open. Reality: you still have to convince a captain to sail it. Ten years ago, shore-side managers could (and did) twist arms. Today? Nobody wants to become TikTok famous for twisting arms...
Is the market already done with the US-Iran war? Wall Street erased early losses while gold and crude oil recoiled from panic highs. Now what? #OilPrices #Crude #Iran #IranWar #stockmarkets #Dollar #Macro https://t.co/sUv93zfPtT
Kharg Island is a 'choke point' for Iran's oil exports, says VanEck Funds CEO https://t.co/rI4JYhLG71
"Oil market not too worried" @Bear__85 "You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you" --Leon Trotsky https://t.co/G26AVdQkOv
“Today is day 834 of the Red Sea crisis and day 3 of the Hormuz crisis,” shipping analyst Lars Jensen
European gas just posted its biggest one-day jump since the Ukraine invasion. Up ~50% as Hormuz security stalls LNG shipping. Energy shocks don’t disappear — they compound. Just when inflation felt contained, volatility returns. Cost-of-living isn’t gone. It was dormant. #NaturalGas #TTF #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis...
US Senator Steve Daines on Montana palladium mine, in the wake of US tariffs on Russian supplies of the metal used to make semiconductors and other materials:
Despite the strike on Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery, Aramco’s Ras Tanura facility, the oil market remained relatively calm throughout the day. Stay tuned. https://t.co/HzbD8gLZNn
Iran commander says Strait of Hormuz closed, vows to hit ships trying to pass, report says: CNBC $USO $XLE
For the first time since 1992, France will expand its nuclear weapons arsenal. Why expand? France already has the world’s fourth-largest nuclear arsenal, following Russia, the US and China. THE LAST THING WE NEED IS ANOTHER ARMS RACE. https://t.co/khuyfhNe9A
Profound. No plan is unchanged by war, and all predictions are rendered wafer thin. Bowen’s priceless insight.. https://t.co/h4FDPyZ6Y4
