Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
The EU can boost growth by deepening single‑market integration for high‑value services and by accelerating clean‑tech investments. While the United States pursues protectionist manufacturing policies and retreats from climate commitments, it still enjoys a large services surplus that could wane. Europe’s fragmented financial markets and non‑tariff barriers limit the potential of its €1.4 trillion household savings pool. Leveraging EU‑wide instruments such as IPCEIs, the Innovation Fund and the proposed European Competitiveness Fund would reduce energy import costs and strengthen strategic autonomy.
Macro: AI compute demand surges. Google rents TPUs to Meta in a multibillion deal, sharpening TPU vs NVIDIA rivalry; AMD also supplies Meta. Risk: Google manufacturing limits. Trade: Buy GOOG. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports have coincided with a near‑10% year‑on‑year rise in China’s exports to the EU during 2025, but the surge began before the tariff hike and has not accelerated since. A difference‑in‑differences analysis of over 3,000 product...
Wall Street stocks slipped as investors grew uneasy about artificial‑intelligence‑driven disruption and mounting private‑credit risks that fund many tech firms. The S&P 500 edged toward its worst monthly performance since March, while bonds and gold rallied and oil prices neared $67...
The U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) received a major re‑authorization embedded in the FY2026 NDAA, boosting its contingent liability limit to $205 billion and expanding geographic eligibility for ICT projects. The bill creates a $5 billion equity revolving fund—though unfunded—and grants new...
The United States and Iran held a third round of indirect nuclear talks in Geneva, with Omani mediation reporting significant progress and technical discussions slated for Vienna next week. Simultaneously, Washington has launched its largest Middle East military buildup since...
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer warned that tariffs on Canada are here to stay, linking higher duties to reciprocal market access under the Trump administration’s “America‑first” agenda. Canada now faces a 10% ad valorem levy on non‑USMCA goods, 50% tariffs on...
South Korean conglomerate Hanwha Power Systems and Greece’s Onex Shipyards & Technologies signed a trilateral agreement, witnessed by U.S. officials, to develop LNG‑powered newbuildings and floating storage‑regasification units. Hanwha will supply critical equipment to Onex’s two Greek shipyards while sharing...
China is accelerating a strategy to flood the market with low‑cost AI tools, aiming to make its platforms indispensable worldwide. ByteDance’s Seedance 2.0, a text‑to‑video generator, exemplifies this push, while Chinese labs have been accused of harvesting OpenAI‑Claude responses through...
U.S. semiconductor manufacturers are feeling the pinch from Chinese restrictions on scandium exports, @Reuters reports, underscoring the importance of @SunriseMetals’ Syerston Scandium Project as an essential supplier to key U.S. industries. “U.S. chipmakers have experienced delays in receiving new scandium export licenses from...
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s broad “reciprocal” tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, but Section 232 duties on medium‑ and heavy‑duty trucks and key components remain untouched. Within days, President Trump announced a new...
Fed doves have happy tears, since over 40% of CPI inflation is due to shelter and wage growth is slowing down. Rising rental vacancies mean it's unlikely to see breakaway inflation again. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #mortgagerates #inflation #economics #realestate #chartdaddy
Below is the AI-assisted summary of today's Spaces discussion on Terraform's lawsuit against Jane Street and the wider questions it invites about the murky behind-the-scenes mechanics of how ETFs function. It also touches on the wider conflicts of interest that...
Revenue Secretary Arvind Shrivastava urged a fundamental recasting of India’s customs rules to deliver speed and certainty for exporters. He highlighted that expanding trade volumes, deeper global value‑chain integration, and a booming digital commerce ecosystem demand more efficient, transparent procedures....
Investigative reporting reveals that Chinese firms are profiting from the illicit extraction of Venezuela’s “black sands” – coltan, niobium and tin – by partnering with armed groups. The minerals travel via river and land routes into Colombia, where fraudulent paperwork...
In order to have successful capital markets, you see the same things happen again and again. Since one man’s debts are another man’s assets, you have to keep interest rates not so high that they crush the debtor, without having them...
Gold’s 2025 rally pushed bullion over 40% higher, its strongest annual gain since 1979, and sent the VanEck Gold Miners ETF soaring 155%. The surge propelled the world’s largest gold miners into record valuations, with Newmont and Agnico Eagle topping...
MP Materials announced a $1.25 billion investment to build a 120‑acre rare‑earth magnet campus in Northlake, Texas, under its “10X” program and a public‑private partnership with the U.S. Department of War. The facility will add roughly 10,000 metric tons of NdFeB magnet...
The Global Questions Series explores the Butterfly Effect, showing how tiny diplomatic signals or policy tweaks can cascade into major geopolitical outcomes. It explains that initial conditions—power balances, leadership psychology, and economic interdependence—shape the trajectory of international systems. By contrasting...
Since the US session has opened : Gold : higher Oil : Higher Vix : Higher Indices : Lower Talks between Iranian & US officials are not going that well so far & markets are clearly reacting to that. I am short on SPX (small risk...
This is precisely how the Citrini doom loop begins. The prospect of short term gains like this outweighs concerns over longer term externalities and negative feedback loops.
India’s Generation X is projected to spend over $500 billion on goods and services by FY 30, according to RedSeer. The cohort’s spending will be led by preventive healthcare ($73 billion, 17% CAGR) and nutraceuticals ($20 billion, 25% CAGR). Premiumisation will also drive growth in...
Almost 900 companies are SUING for refunds from the more than $100 Bn in ILLEGAL tariff revenue Pres. Trump collected in 2025. All Trump's ILLEGAL tariffs have done is MAKE ENEMIES and create LEGAL & FISCAL CHAOS. https://t.co/I1jP900jcz
What if the job postings theme was more of a macro story than an AI one and now that the economy is re-accelerating so are job openings?
Cass Information Systems announced a partnership with AI‑enabled tariff specialist Caspian to embed advanced customs audit and refund capabilities into its freight‑payment platform. The integration adds AI‑driven HTS modeling, detailed audit functions, and support for post‑summary corrections, protests, and duty‑drawback...
Canada's January inflation (CPI) is ON TARGET at 2.29%/yr. Canada’s money supply (M3) is growing at 4.02%/yr. That’s a bit below Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~6-8%/yr, a rate consistent with Canada's 1-3%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY...
The Chicago Fed Real-Time Unemployment Rate Forecast for February is 4.28%, so not likely to be much different from the BLS’s official reading last month. https://t.co/fmDwn7LlNk https://t.co/nw9NVUBD9I
Bruegel and the India International Centre hosted a multi‑day forum in Brussels to dissect the newly signed EU‑India Free Trade Agreement and its broader strategic implications. Sessions covered global challenges such as climate change, AI governance, and shifting trade dynamics,...
The ai advances are real, but they imply some very unpleasant bottlenecks for a bunch of industries, and risk stoking prices in a variety of goods. Tariffs arent the only source of short run inflation risk
Lower tariff by US on Chinese goods. What will it mean to import supply chains? And to logistics? Especially container lines? A lot? Or not? Given soft CNY. @Lingling_Wei
Javier Milei’s liberal‑market agenda has sparked a sharp divide in Argentina, with early macro data showing a modest rebound while safety‑net programs crumble for the poor. Supporters hail the reforms as a break from historic boom‑bust cycles, whereas critics warn...
Foreign direct investment into Canada jumped Q4, pushing yearly inflows to the highest level in 18 years. FDI totaled C$25.1 billion Oct-Dec, Statistics Canada reported, bringing the yearly sum to C$96.8 billion, the highest since 2007. https://t.co/yORmpTnnkH
Is Russia exporting more oil now that it was before the Russo-Ukrainian war? Contrary to Western propaganda, the answer is YES. Russian crude export volumes are 6% above pre-invasion levels. SANCTIONS = NEVER WORK. https://t.co/pElmHdXmbQ
Shell India’s new scenarios sketch projects that India’s total energy demand will outpace the United States in the 2040s and overtake China by the 2060s, driven by rapid economic and population growth. The report shows the fossil‑fuel share in the...
In 2025, global debt surged by almost $29 TRILLION. Who are the culprits? According to the Institute of International Finance, they are AI AND DEFENSE SPENDING. https://t.co/R4ISyieJwn
Latest episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast discusses market sentiment. @MWellerFX and I touch on sentiment surveys, market-based positioning and looser measures (eg headlines, search trends) - and how to integrate it into your market analysis: https://t.co/B06D4S71N8
The Port of Rotterdam handled 14.2 million TEUs in 2025, marking a 3.1 % increase driven by a strong second‑half surge in Asian imports and expanding trade with North America. Despite this growth, persistent congestion and a carrier‑alliance restructuring forced a notable...
New CEPR paper looks at the economics of tariffs. Says "while tariffs can redistribute income between domestic winners and losers from trade, more efficient redistributive instruments typically exist." Not sure I agree, but I did like this chart. https://t.co/PCMMEJY9dc https://t.co/PWFT8xomhM
Big win for STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY. After the Supreme Court ruled most of Trump's tariffs unlawful last Friday, the biggest “winners” were countries that NEVER SIGNED ANYTHING, like Brazil China and India. https://t.co/V1MJQK07Ip
The Hapag‑Lloyd acquisition of Zim adds roughly 2.8 million TEUs to the carrier, cementing its position among the world’s largest shippers. Meanwhile, the Premier Alliance—Ocean Network Express, HMM and Yang Ming—has amassed just over 4.8 million TEUs of existing and ordered capacity. The...
The most stimulative portions of the Big Beautiful Bill are about to hit over the next couple of months and will be adding some juice to consumer spending over the next few months
The hypocrisy of cutting off a Swiss Bank for facilitating payments to Iran and Russia, while the administration pardons CZ & family does business with Binance... https://t.co/p2PfBgrfDs
The new book *Avoid Fiscal & Economic Disaster with Ethics, Economics, and Excellence* by former Fed official Bill Bergman and retired Air Force Lt. Col. Larry Feltes warns that America’s greatest vulnerability is a collapsing trust in its institutions. They...
March 9 will be the 250th anniversary of the publication of The Wealth of Nations. How would Adam Smith judge our economy today? We discuss it with @Jesse_Norman, author of Adam Smith, Father of Economics, and British MP. https://t.co/Y5fN0vHIkk
#CubaWatch🇨🇺: Yesterday, the US Treasury said it would authorize the resale of Venezuelan oil to Cuba. But it remains UNCLEAR how or will this work. THE DEVIL IS ALWAYS IN THE DETAILS. https://t.co/PLsrYShRGo
Russia’s foreign ministry warned that deploying British troops to Ukraine would lengthen the war, countering the UK defence minister’s pledge to send forces after a cease‑fire. In Europe, ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated she will serve her full term to 2027,...
On February 3rd, I revised my gold forecast from $6,000 to $6,000-7,000 per ounce. JP Morgan just revised its end-of-year gold price forecast to $6,300 per ounce. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/Hi3nzEv5w2
Those importers who sold their tariff claims to Lutnick’s sons were only paid 20-30 cents on the dollar. Getting into the trade early? Are real importers concerned about getting refunds? Why? Dragging it out?
India and Israel will reconvene for the next round of free‑trade agreement negotiations in May 2026, following a constructive first round held during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit. The initial talks covered goods, services, digital trade, rules of origin,...
Yesterday, THOUSANDS of farmers took to the streets of Madrid, Spain. They protested the EU-Mercosur Trade Pact. https://t.co/XqvZrcC16q
