Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Middle East Conflict Weighs on Thai Banks as Profits Slip
Thai banks entered 2026 with a cautious outlook after Q1 earnings fell sharply amid heightened Middle East tensions and a global energy shock. SCB X posted an 18% net‑income decline to 10.2 bn baht (≈$317 m), missing forecasts. Kasikornbank’s profit slipped 3% once a one‑off investment gain was stripped out. Bangkok Bank reported a 13% earnings drop to about 11 bn baht (≈$342 m).
ASEAN’s Rules of Origin Need a Rethink
ASEAN’s Rules of Origin (ROO) under ATIGA permit goods with predominantly foreign components to qualify for preferential treatment, undermining incentives for intra‑regional sourcing. Since the ROO shift to a Change‑in‑Tariff‑Classification (CTC) model, intra‑ASEAN trade has slipped to just 20‑30% of...
Suspending the EU-Israel Trade Deal Is Now the only Tool Left for Brussels
The European Union has yet to suspend its Association Agreement with Israel despite mounting evidence of war crimes and crimes against humanity. The article argues that suspension is the only remaining tool to uphold a rules‑based international order and to...
UK Jobs Market Was in a Fragile State – Even Before Iran War Threatened Recovery
The UK unemployment rate slipped to 4.9% in the three months to February, but the labour market remains fragile as economic inactivity rose and pay‑rolled jobs fell by 65,000 year‑on‑year in March. Wage growth slowed to 3.8% annually, the weakest...
The United States Is Repeating Its Silicon Mistake with Gallium Nitride
China controls roughly 99% of the world’s primary gallium and imposed an outright export ban on the United States in December 2024, leaving the U.S. defense stockpile with zero reserves. The article warns that the U.S. is repeating the silicon...
New Normal, New Opportunities W/ Triton’s Peder Prahl
In this episode, Hugh MacArthur talks with Peter Prahl, founding CEO of Triton, about navigating the new normal of higher interest rates, tighter leverage, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Prahl explains why these conditions create attractive buying opportunities, highlighting value dislocations...
War in Iran Is Causing Biggest Energy Crisis in History, IEA Says
The International Energy Agency’s chief, Fatih Birol, warned that the war involving Iran, the United States and Israel has triggered the worst energy crisis in history. The conflict has choked the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for about 20% of...
UK Unemployment Rate Drops Unexpectedly
The UK unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.9% in the February quarter, outpacing the 5.2% forecast. The decline largely reflects a rise in the inactivity rate, now 21%, as fewer students are seeking work. Meanwhile, wages grew at a 3.6%...
I’m Sorry, Dave. I’m Afraid I Can’t De-Escalate: On (AI) Wargaming and Nuclear War
Recent AI‑driven wargames of nuclear crises show frontier language models escalating to tactical nuclear use in 95% of simulations, with strategic threats in 76% of games. The study by Kenneth Payne argues these results reveal "machine psychology" rather than human...
ASX Wobbles as Oil Stocks and Gold Miners Fall, Wall Street Slips
The ASX 200 barely moved, closing at 8,949.40 after a 3.9‑point dip, as investors weighed the latest US‑Iran peace‑talks and easing oil prices. Energy giants Woodside and Santos slipped about 1.5‑1.8% while coal producers Yancoal and Whitehaven jumped 3.8% on...
What the War Against Iran Means for the U.S.-South Korean Alliance
The U.S.–South Korea alliance, originally designed to deter North Korea, is being tested by the Strait of Hormuz standoff, which threatens Seoul’s energy imports and industrial output. About 61% of its crude oil and 54% of naphtha arrive via the...
Drop in UK Unemployment Isn’t All It Seems
The UK unemployment rate slipped from 5.2% to 4.9%, but the decline stems largely from a rise in economic inactivity rather than new jobs. Private‑sector payrolls are still falling, with a 1.6% annualised drop driven by hospitality and retail. Recent...
Commercial Bank in East Africa to Integrate USDA Payments
Kenya’s cross‑border remittance flow hit a record $5 bn in 2024, outpacing tea and horticulture exports, yet settlement still takes four to five days via costly SWIFT corridors. Stablecoin usage surged, with $3.3 bn processed in the past year, highlighting demand for...
What Does Pakistan Gain From Its Iran–US Diplomacy?
Pakistan has positioned itself as the chief mediator in the renewed Iran‑U.S. talks, hosting a second round in Islamabad after President Donald Trump’s invitation. The move reflects Islamabad’s urgent need to ease energy shortages, protect its 900‑km Iran border, and...
Rates Spark: Bonds Losing Their Edge as a Hedge
Bonds are losing their appeal as a hedge against equities as correlations between German Bunds and stock indices hit record highs, while long‑end inflation expectations remain anchored. Front‑end rates are volatile amid lingering Middle East tensions, but the longer end...
ONS Latest | Unemployment Falls Unexpectedly but Wage Growth Slows in Fragile Labour Market
The UK Office for National Statistics reported unemployment fell to 4.9% in February, marking the first decline after months of rise. At the same time, regular pay growth slowed to 3.6% year‑on‑year and total pay to 3.8%, the weakest pace...
Aluminium Recyclers Push for Duty Cut as Supply Tightens Globally
India imports 85% of its aluminium scrap and faces a 2.5% customs duty that raises costs for downstream users. Geopolitical tensions and the EU’s planned export curbs have tightened global scrap supplies, prompting the Material Recycling Association of India to...
Asia’s Largest Oil Buyers Running Low on Hormuz Alternatives
Asia’s biggest oil importers—including China, India, Japan and South Korea—have relied on a patchwork of alternative routes and supplies for more than seven weeks of war in the Persian Gulf, which has threatened the strategic Strait of Hormuz. These workarounds,...
Report: With EUDR Delayed, Beef Imports From Brazil’s Amazon Climb Higher
Earthsight reports EU beef imports from Brazil’s Amazon jumped from €142 million (≈$155 million) in 2024 to €238 million (≈$260 million) in 2025, all sourced from Mato Grosso, Brazil’s second‑largest deforestation hotspot. The surge follows a doubling of EU‑authorized slaughterhouses in the region. The EU...
FX Daily: Dollar to Weigh up Warsh
Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing is set to dominate U.S. monetary policy headlines, with markets expecting a dovish stance on rates and a hawkish approach to the Fed’s balance‑sheet reduction. A potential Iranian delegation to peace talks in Pakistan is...
Geopolitics and FX Cloud Treasury Outlook - Weekly Roundup: 21 April
Treasury teams are feeling heightened pressure from geopolitics, with 88% of respondents expressing moderate to high concern, prompting a defensive shift toward money‑market funds and early AI adoption for cash forecasting. European banks see digital assets as a modest threat,...
Southeast Asia Holds the Key to Unlocking Korean Impasse
Inter‑Korean diplomacy remains stalled, prompting Southeast Asian states to step in as mediators. Vietnam, Indonesia and Laos are leveraging historic ties with Pyongyang—Vietnam’s “bamboo diplomacy,” Laos’s ASEAN chair role, and Indonesia’s restored embassy—to facilitate back‑channel dialogue. Simultaneously, they are deepening...
China Suddenly Grants New Beef Licences to Australia
China’s customs authority approved eight new Australian beef facilities – six cold‑storage centres and two abattoirs, including Thomas Foods International’s Murray Bridge plant – and upgraded licences for 13 existing exporters to ship chilled beef. The changes effectively add 15...
Beyond Survival, What Palestine’s Resilience Means for Investors
Palestine’s private sector continues operating despite a 2023 economic shock that pushed real GDP to a decade‑low and caused massive job losses. The economy’s resilience is now being seen as an economic capability, not just a humanitarian virtue, as firms...
UK February ILO Unemployment Rate 4.9% vs 5.2% Expected
The UK unemployment rate slipped to 4.9% in February, beating the 5.2% forecast and marking the lowest level since August 2023. Meanwhile, payrolls were revised down by 11,000 jobs, indicating a continued decline in employment. The claimant count rose sharply...
AU Protocol on Digital Trade Expected to Boost DPI in Africa: AfCFTA SG
African Union Secretary‑General Wamkele Mene said the newly adopted AU Protocol on Digital Trade could catalyze massive investment in digital public infrastructure (DPI) across the continent. The protocol, backed by eight annexes covering cross‑border payments, data flows, digital identity, fintech, AI...
Indian Debt Funds Cut Hedges as Oil Risks Inflate Rate-Hike Bets
Indian debt fund managers, including Bandhan AMC and ICICI Prudential, are unwinding overnight indexed swap (OIS) hedges as soaring oil prices and the Iran conflict push market expectations for higher interest rates. The two‑year swap rate remains near 6%, roughly...
Stablecoin Risks Not to Be Ignored Reminds BIS Official
Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Governor Pablo Hernández de Cos warned that stablecoins, while offering utility for institutions, present significant risks to national financial systems. He highlighted that emerging economies, already struggling with capital controls and dollarisation, are especially vulnerable...
The US Demanded That Europeans Accelerate Their Transition to “NATO 3.0”
U.S. Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby warned European NATO members to speed up a shift to a “NATO 3.0” model, placing primary responsibility for continental defense on Europe. He called for rapid rebuilding of European munitions stocks, removal of...
Gallup, U.Michigan, Conference Board Compared, Plus Morning Consult
The latest release from the University of Michigan, Gallup, and the Conference Board shows their standardized consumer‑sentiment indices moving in lockstep from 2020 through early 2025, then plunging sharply after the political event dubbed “Liberation Day” in early 2026. All...
The Forces of Scarcity Hitting Asia May Soon Spread Across the World
The United States and Israel’s war on Iran has triggered a rapid, region‑wide scarcity shock across the Asia‑Pacific. Jet fuel prices have doubled and air traffic has fallen by roughly a third, while manufacturers face fuel‑driven cuts to output, from...
Remittances to HCMC Decline in Q1 Amid Global Headwinds
Remittances to Ho Chi Minh City fell 16.9% year‑on‑year in Q1 2026, dropping to $2 billion, after a 15.6% decline from the previous quarter. The State Bank of Vietnam attributes the slide to global economic uncertainty, high inflation, monetary tightening, and geopolitical tensions....
Uganda’s Power Paradox: Cheap for Industry, Costly for Households
Uganda offers the continent’s second‑lowest industrial electricity tariff at $0.055/kWh, yet its residential price sits at $0.206/kWh, the second‑highest among COMESA members. The disparity stems from a deliberate policy to subsidize manufacturing and spur industrialisation, even as the country enjoys...
The Cautious Optimism Holds as Markets Wait on US-Iran Talks Next
Iran has re‑imposed a de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a hard‑line stance ahead of upcoming US‑Iran talks. President Trump is publicly confident a new deal will surpass the 2015 JCPOA, fueling market optimism despite mixed signals. Oil...
Silver Leads Strong March Chinese Imports Across Metals
Chinese Imports & Exports for AU/AG/PA/PL in March. Silver stands out amongst the strong imports. Chart below
Russia to Supply China Gas at One‑third Cheaper than Europe
China is getting cheap natural gas from Russia 🇨🇳🤝🇪🇺 The Russian government expects to sell gas to China through 2029 at about a third less than the price paid by Europe (this includes Turkey) https://t.co/LgIAxNwHXq https://t.co/5t7y1oF7zy
K Food Exports Set to Take Major Hit After Losing Middle East Growth
South Korea’s K‑Food exports rose 4% YoY to $2.56 bn in Q1 2026, driven largely by the Middle East, which contributed $106 m and 32.3% of the growth. Escalating conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran disrupted logistics, causing a sharp...
China’s Population Rapidly Ages and Declines
Not a new thoughts, but still stark🎩 @FTAlphaville 💥China is aging & shrinking — fast https://t.co/riFE9HYJoP
RBI's Liquidity Flood Drives Rupee Sharply Lower
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The Reserve Bank of India is DIGGING A HOLE for the rupee. After years of tight management, now the RBI is FLOODING India with liquidity and the rupee is tanking. https://t.co/fy7Uowe3o2
Kudlow - Monday, April 20
Fox Business aired a 41‑minute episode of "Kudlow" on Monday, April 20, where host Larry Kudlow examined three high‑profile issues: the Iranian regime’s aggressive posture, U.S. Special Counsel Jack Smith’s ongoing investigations, and the risk of a Hormuz Strait blockade....
The New Trade Order
At Davos, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called for a "new trade order" to correct imbalances in the global economy, invoking Václav Havel’s 1978 essay on powerlessness. He urged multinationals and governments to prioritize supply‑chain resilience, fair labor standards, and climate‑aligned tariffs....
How to Fight an Economic War
At Davos, former Bank of England governor Mark Carney warned that globalization has morphed into economic warfare, with great powers weaponising tariffs, finance and supply‑chain dependencies. The United States and China now dominate key chokepoints—U.S. dollar payments, AI chips and...
Kim’s Dangerous Liaisons
In June 2024 Russian President Vladimir Putin made his first trip to North Korea in 25 years, culminating in the signing of a Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Kim Jong Un. The ceremony featured extensive North Korean pageantry, underscoring the regime’s propaganda style....
South Africa Leads BRICS in Misery, 7th Globally
In Hanke’s 2025 Annual Misery Index, South Africa ranks as the MOST MISERABLE COUNTRY in BRICS, and the SEVENTH MOST MISERABLE country in the world. SA’s unemployment of 32.5% is a KILLER. SOUTH AFRICA = TANKING. https://t.co/YPUnYLBqeP
Consumers and Small Sellers May Get Tariff Refunds From Shipping Carriers
U.S. Customs and Border Protection launched an online portal on April 20 to process refunds for tariffs imposed under the IEEPA after the Supreme Court struck down the related duties. The portal enables importers of record—or their brokers—to file claims, while...
InvestingLive Asia-Pacific FX News Wrap: Vance Heading to Pakistan for Talks with Iran
Vice President JD Vance is set to travel to Islamabad for a cease‑fire negotiation with Iran after the Supreme Leader approved a delegation, despite Tehran’s public rejection of talks under pressure. The diplomatic effort aims to avert escalation in the...
Westpac Sees US Dollar Weakening as Markets Look Through Energy Shock and Tensions
Westpac argues that despite heightened Middle East tensions, the U.S. dollar is losing steam as markets price a gradual normalization of shipping flows and improving global trade. The bank forecasts the U.S. Dollar Index falling from the high‑90s to the...
Chip Price Surge Rivals Oil Shock, Adds $300B Surplus
Chip price shock is by some measures as big as the current oil shock -- $300b annual increase in Korean/ Taiwan combined trade surplus v 24 based on latest data (depends of course on where oil settles for the rest...
Prioritizing Future GDP Share Over Today's Profit
It’s not about profit today, it’s about the share of GDP they will control tomorrow.
Asia Foreshadows Global Energy Shock, US Unprepared
Asia is the trailer for the global energy shock "You’ve seen tsunamis," says The Atlantic Council's Phillip Cornell “I find it breathtaking to see the degree to which American policymakers think that they are insulated.” https://t.co/hZtCnd3mey #EnergyCrisis #OilMarkets #Geopolitics #SupplyChains