Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
EU Politics - Orban Lost the Hungarian Election. Landslide Opposition Win. EUR Impact.
Hungary’s snap election delivered a landslide defeat for Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, ending his 16‑year tenure as the country’s illiberal leader. The pro‑EU centre‑right Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar, is projected to secure a two‑thirds parliamentary majority with record‑high turnout near 78%. The shift promises to thaw strained relations with Brussels, potentially unlocking billions of frozen EU funds. Analysts see the outcome as modestly euro‑positive, reducing political fragmentation and geopolitical risk within the bloc.
Saudi Arabia Gets More Oil Flowing as US Blocks Strait of Hormuz. What You Need to Know About Iran Today
US President Donald Trump announced a unilateral blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after Iran refused nuclear assurances in talks held in Islamabad. The move comes as Saudi Arabia’s East‑West pipeline, damaged earlier by an Iranian strike, has returned to...
Wary Investors Eye Another Escalation in Iran War
The collapse of US‑Iran peace talks prompted President Donald Trump to announce a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that moves roughly 20% of global oil and LNG. The rhetoric sparked a sharp sell‑off in crude, with...
Market Sentiment Set to Plunge as US‑Iran Talks Collapse
My article on market conditions, themes and top event risk for the week ahead: How Bad Will Market Sentiment Get as US-Iran Peace Talks Fall Apart? https://t.co/5Qd3Zkb5xY https://t.co/ifGXjJ2Scu
Global Debt Spikes 33%, Crippling Downturn Response
“This is the worst place we’ve been in 20 years,” or probably “longer than that,” for communal capacity to combat a widespread downturn: Harvard economist Carmen Reinhart. Global debt has surged by one third in the past 6 years, to...
India’s $700 Bn Forex Reserve Buffer Shields Rupee Amid Middle‑East Conflict
India’s foreign‑exchange reserves have risen to almost $700 bn, providing coverage for more than 11 months of imports and covering 94% of external debt. The Economic Survey says the buffer protects the rupee as oil prices climb and geopolitical risk spikes...
US Vice President JD Vance Leaves Islamabad After 21‑Hour US‑Iran Talks Fail to Secure Cease‑Fire
U.S. Vice President JD Vance headed a high‑level delegation to Islamabad, where 21‑hour negotiations with Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf ended without an agreement. The United States demanded a binding nuclear‑non‑proliferation pledge, which Tehran refused, keeping the cease‑fire fragile...
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy Warns Tariffs Are Creeping Into Consumer Prices as Stockpiles Dwindle
Amazon chief Andy Jassy told CNBC that the retailer’s early‑year inventory buildup has run out, and tariffs are now showing up in product prices. The comment comes as the U.S. government processes $166 billion in tariff refunds for companies while consumers...
Trump Humiliated as Key U.S. Ally Bails on His New War Plan
President Donald Trump announced a unilateral blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, demanding NATO allies help reopen the vital waterway after Iran mined it. The United Kingdom publicly refused to commit naval or aerial assets, contradicting Trump’s claim that allies...
Ahead of Russian Gas Ban, Europe Buys Almost All Cargoes From Yamal LNG
Europe bought 97 percent of Yamal LNG cargoes in Q1 2026, receiving 69 of 71 shipments, amounting to 5.07 million tons and $3.33 billion in payments. The bloc’s dependence on Russian gas has surged, with over $230 billion spent on Russian oil and gas imports...
Blockade Cuts Iran's Oil Revenue, Exposes Economic Fragility
A blockade collapses the blue bars below to zero. This collapses Iran's business model, which means there's no money for imports and the red bars go to zero. Iran is a gas station masquerading as an Islamic Republic. Time to...
Detrended Consumer Sentiment
Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to a record low in April, marking the deepest reading in the series. Detrended analysis shows sentiment has been trending downward for roughly the past 15 years, reinforcing the so‑called “vibecession” narrative of...
Orbán's 16‑year Rule Ends with Crushing Defeat
BUDAPEST — The 16-year reign of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán looks set to end after a crushing election loss on Sunday that will send political shockwaves from Washington to Moscow. @politico https://t.co/lhtXRbEih2 https://t.co/4Dq8n5Qj76
Five Emerging Themes for the Indo-Pacific From Trump’s Iran War
The Trump‑led war on Iran is reshaping strategic calculations across the Indo‑Pacific. Analysts identify five emerging themes: heightened nuclear proliferation risk, doubts about the reliability of U.S. deterrence, urgent need for missile‑and‑drone defenses, a push for diversified energy and critical‑mineral...
Oil Prices Likely to Top $115, Stay Long
According to @Polymarket, there is now a 64% chance that US oil prices will exceed $115/barrel this month. I agree. Stay long oil. AMERICANS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP. https://t.co/NCKsBE3xYX
Prolonged War May Hit Rs 75,000 Crore Dividend Target
A prolonged war in West Asia is keeping global commodity prices high, threatening India's fiscal plan to collect a ₹75,000 crore ($9 bn) dividend from central public sector enterprises (CPSEs) this year. State‑run petroleum companies, which supplied a third of the ₹78,438 crore...
Net FDI Inflows Dip, Investors Opting for Mexico, Vietnam
India’s net foreign direct investment turned negative in January 2026, reaching –$1.39 billion as gross inflows fell 6.9% year‑on‑year to about $5.7 billion. Outbound repatriation surged to $4.9 billion, nearly doubling the previous month’s level. Analysts say investors are gravitating toward Mexico, Vietnam...
A Ceasefire Is Good. But Trump’s Impact on Rates Is Just Starting
The Iranian‑U.S. conflict has disrupted oil flows, keeping crude prices above pre‑war levels for months. Higher fuel costs are feeding a second‑round inflation surge that could push Australian CPI past 5 %, well outside the Reserve Bank’s target. The RBA, already...
Energy Drives March CPI Spike, Spillover Risks Loom
WEI LI BlackRock: Energy contributed the most to March's CPI surge. How much will the bleed-through be to the rest of the economy? https://t.co/OPcuN31SGl
Trump Trots JD Vance Out in Front of News Cameras and Makes Him Take the Fall for ‘Bad News’ on...
Vice President JD Vance emerged from a marathon meeting in Islamabad to announce that Iran rejected the United States’ terms, effectively ending the latest round of negotiations. While the demands were crafted by President Donald Trump’s team, Vance was positioned...
Saudi Arabia Gains as Oil Prices Surge, Rival Vanishes
The House of Saud wins with higher oil prices and the elimination of a regional competitor
Egypt's Inflation Surge Mirrors Excess Money Supply Growth
Egypt’s inflation rate is 15.2%/yr. Egypt's money supply is growing at 16.9%/yr. That's ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth rate of 11.1-15.1%/yr, a rate consistent w/ Egypt's 3-5%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/Daeo3HbmBW
China Says It Will Resume some Ties with Taiwan Following Visit by Opposition Leader
China announced it will restore certain cross‑strait ties with Taiwan after Kuomintang leader Cheng Li‑wun met President Xi Jinping in Beijing. The measures include resuming direct flights, lifting bans on Taiwanese aquaculture products, and exploring a communication channel between the Communist Party...
Hormuz Blockade Threatens Oil Supply, Markets Await China or Trump
Strait of Hormuz blockade is live 🚢❌ 20% of world oil = gone 🛢️ Equities gap down 📉 Oil gap up 📈 $115 WTI on the table 🎯 One question matters: does China blink first or does Trump? 🇨🇳🇺🇸 Trade...
Op-Ed: The War Is Turning Iran Into a Major World Superpower by Pape: If Iranians Control of the Hormuz Continues...
The op‑ed argues that the current Middle‑East conflict is accelerating Iran’s rise as a strategic superpower, chiefly through its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and a potential nuclear breakthrough. Citing political scientist Robert Pape, the author notes Iran could...
Trump Pitches Iran Blockade as Boon to U.S. Oil
President Trump used the Iran‑related Strait of Hormuz blockade as a sales pitch, urging nations—especially China—to buy more U.S. oil. He claimed empty tankers were heading to American ports, but the United States exports only about 3.5‑4.5 million barrels of crude...
US Misunderstands Existential Threat to China, Russia, Iran Supply Chains
100%. Virtually no one in US seems to understand a) This is existential to China & Russia as well as Iran b) What that potentially implies for global supply chains
Chinese Rare Earth Producer Hikes Q2 Price by 44%
China Northern Rare Earth Group announced a Q2 2026 concentrate price of 38,804 yuan ($5,390) per tonne, a 44.6% jump from the first quarter and more than double the level a year earlier. The price is tied to a formula that...
The Islamabad Collapse: What the US-Iran Negotiation Failure Means for Gulf Stability and Global Supply Chains
Negotiations between the United States and Iran in Islamabad collapsed, leaving the Strait of Hormuz effectively sealed by both sides. Tehran refused to abandon its nuclear enrichment program and to relinquish control of the waterway, while Washington demanded total dismantlement...
Turkey Drains Securities and Gold to Fund FX Intervention
Indeed. Turkey sold a ton of fx (essentially draining its securities portfolio) and sold/ swapped gold to generate even more fx to fund its massive March intervention ... 1/x https://t.co/RsDslEBwvB
UK Rejects US Hormuz Blockade, Seeks Navigation Coalition
UK says it will not be involved in U.S. blockade of the Hormuz Strait, and is currently "urgently working with France and other partners to put together a wide coalition to protect the freedom of navigation." — Sky
Colombia’s Energy Crisis Deepens as Oil Output Falls and Imports Rise
Colombia’s oil production slipped to 734,924 barrels per day in February, a 2.7% year‑over‑year decline and the lowest level since July 2021. Natural‑gas output also fell, pushing imports to roughly 20% of total consumption, up from under 4% a year earlier....
Deep-Sea Mining Heats up as New Player Challenges Early Mover Advantage
Deep Sea Minerals (CNSX: SEAS), a rebranded Canadian firm, closed an oversubscribed $4.22 million private placement and has applied for a U.S. deep‑seabed exploration license in the Clarion‑Clipperton Zone and the Cook Islands EEZ. The company plans an asset‑light approach, contracting...
Op-Ed: How Gold Became National Security Infrastructure
In April 2026 the Banque de France moved its entire sovereign gold holdings back to French soil, swapping 129 tonnes of legacy bars for compliant bullion and realizing a €12.8 billion (≈ $13.8 billion) gain. France joins Germany, India and other nations in an...
Geopolitics Revolves Around Monopoly Power at Global Choke Points
A couple of observations about Trump’s blockade threat. Whether Iran and Trump threatening the Strait of Hormuz, power flows through choke points, aka monopolies. Same with China and rare earths, and the U.S. and the dollar. A lot of geopolitics is...
Mearsheimer Warns Iran Attack Will Eclipse Iraq War
Distinguished UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on Pres. Trump and Netanyahu's WAR OF CHOICE in Iran: “The decision to attack Iran will be seen as worse than Iraq in 2003.” https://t.co/1NB8fuoO2S
US‑Iran Islamabad Talks Collapse, Leaving Emerging‑Market Oil Shock
U.S. Vice President JD Vance led a 21‑hour delegation to Islamabad that ended without an agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme. The failure leaves the fragile cease‑fire and the strategic Strait of Hormuz in limbo, threatening oil‑price stability for emerging markets.
Hormuz Blockade Threatens US Humiliation and Warship Losses
Attempting a Hormuz blockade will be a humiliating defeat for the US Iranian drones and anti-ship ballistic missiles will potentially damage or destroy US warships #StraitOfHormuz #OilMarkets #EnergySecurity #NavalWarfare #Geopolitics #MiddleEast #GlobalRisk #EnergyCrisis #ShippingLanes #MilitaryStrategy
Blocking Toll‑Paid Ships Could Pressure Iran, Yet Payer Unclear
Technically, blockading ships that have paid the toll to Iran/IRGC IS the correct way to force Tehran to the negotiating table. But how is such a threat implemented? It is unlikely that shipping companies are paying that toll (the importer...
RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25% as West Asia Tensions Keep Inflation Risks Alive
The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee left the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% and signaled a neutral stance, warning that West Asia conflict risks could keep inflationary pressures high. The decision narrows the window for near‑term rate cuts and boosts the...
US Vice President JD Vance Leads Failed 21‑Hour Iran Talk in Islamabad, Leaving Oil Markets on Edge
U.S. Vice President JD Vance led a high‑level delegation to Islamabad for 21 hours of talks with Iran, but the parties left without an agreement. Iran rejected a “fundamental commitment” to abandon its nuclear program, while the United States warned...
Fed Minutes Highlight Job‑Market Risks Over Inflation, Prompting Equity Re‑Pricing
Federal Reserve minutes released Tuesday reveal a growing emphasis on labor‑market vulnerabilities rather than inflation, according to economist Larry Eli El‑Erian. The change in tone may pressure the Fed to adjust policy and could trigger a reassessment of equity valuations across the...
Tariff Refunds Flow to Companies While Consumers Shoulder $231 Billion Cost
The U.S. Supreme Court ordered refunds of up to $170 billion for roughly 330,000 importers after striking down Trump‑era tariffs, yet studies show American shoppers have already absorbed $231 billion in price hikes. The gap highlights a widening cost burden on households...
A Cash Shortage During Hyperinflation: One Economist’s Account of What Socialism Did to Venezuela
Economist Daniel Di Martino warned that Venezuela’s socialist experiment turned its vast oil wealth into a cash‑shortage nightmare, with hyperinflation soaring to an IMF‑projected 1,000,000% in 2018. Nationalized farms, banks and utilities crippled production, while the state ran out of imported...
An Iran War Winner: China’s Green Industrial Complex
China's renewable energy exporters are seeing a surge in demand as the Iran war disrupts Middle East oil and gas supplies. Nations across the region are turning to Chinese-made solar panels and wind turbines to secure power stability. The conflict...
PETER’S ASIAN BUSINESS & FINANCE BRIEFING – Monday 13 April 2026, 06:00 Hong Kong
US‑Iran peace talks in Islamabad fell apart, with Vice President JD Vance citing Tehran’s refusal to commit to forgo nuclear weapons, reigniting fears of military escalation in the Gulf of Hormuz. The fallout pushed physical oil markets to record levels,...
Iran Crisis Puts China's UN Diplomacy to the Test
China and Russia vetoed a watered‑down UN Security Council resolution aimed at deterring further closures of the Strait of Hormuz. Beijing argued the draft lacked balance, fearing it could legitimize unauthorized military action and provide a pretext for regime‑change operations....
IMF Warns US‑Israeli War on Iran Will Devastate Economy
International Monetary Fund Chief Kristalina Georgieva signals that the US-Israeli war on Iran will result in MASSIVE economic damage. I agree. https://t.co/UHcivMPbGt
Hormuz Strait: Global Trade Can't Be Held Hostage
I know Dr. Vivian Balakrishnan, FM of Singapore. He is a brilliant man. Listen to what he says. Strait of Hormuz cannot be held hostage by Iran. ALL global trade depends on it.
China to Restore Limited Ties with Taiwan After Opposition Visit
China says it will resume some ties with Taiwan after visit by opposition leader - POLITICO https://t.co/vCYJCuJUps