Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
America’s Next Fed Chair Is Caught in a Vice
The Federal Reserve’s upcoming chair transition is unfolding under intense political pressure from President Donald Trump, who routinely attacks current Chair Jerome Powell on social media. Powell also faces a DOJ inquiry into the Fed’s headquarters renovation contract, adding a legal dimension to the scrutiny. Meanwhile, inflation began to rise before the recent Iran conflict, complicating the policy backdrop for any successor. The confluence of political, legal, and economic challenges threatens the central bank’s independence as the next chair is selected.
Trump Announces Blockade of Strait of Hormuz as Vance Leaves Pakistan Talks with No Deal. How Financial Markets Are Reacting.
President Donald Trump announced an immediate U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to pressure Iran. The move sparked a sharp rise in crude oil prices while equity and cryptocurrency markets fell, with S&P 500 futures and Bitcoin both...
WATCH YOUR BIDS (S2026 E10)
In episode 10 of Season 2026, "Watch Your Bids," the hosts dissect modern programmatic advertising bidding tactics. They explain how automated bidding algorithms can overspend without proper guardrails, and they showcase real‑world case studies where brands trimmed CPA by up...
Oil Futures up 7% on Hyperliquid as Trump Orders Naval Blockade of Hormuz
Oil futures surged on the decentralized Hyperliquid exchange after President Donald Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global petroleum shipments. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contracts jumped 7% to $96.40, while Brent rose...
Seven Million Barrels a Day Still Isn’t Enough: Why Saudi Arabia’s Pipeline Fix Won’t Solve the Hormuz Crisis
Saudi Arabia announced that its East‑West pipeline is back to full capacity of roughly seven million barrels per day, and the Manifa field has resumed its 300,000‑barrel‑per‑day output, while the Khurais field remains under repair. The pipeline, which routes crude...
Hormuz Closure Could Cut Gulf Output by 15 MMbpd
Current Middle East Gulf production shut-ins stand at ~13 MMbpd (out of a ~105 MMbpd market) If Trump blockades the Strait and forces Iran to shut in production that total rises to ~15 MMbpd. It’s been strange to see Iran continue to...
Trump Blocks Hormuz, Spurring Volatility and Fed Printing
Trump closes down the Strait of Hormuz and blocks any traffic, through which the ceasefire is already fragile. Volatility remains high and it's clear that there won't be a path forward where risk-on assets will do well if this continues...
BBC: Trump Says US to ‘Blockade’ Strait of Hormuz After Talks Failed over Iran’s ‘Nuclear Ambitions’
Former President Donald Trump announced that the United States will impose a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after diplomatic talks with Iran collapsed over its nuclear program. The statement came amid an escalating US‑Israel‑Iran conflict that has already...
‘Buckle Up’
The U.S. macro calendar is unusually quiet this week, leaving few domestic drivers for markets. Attention has shifted to the Middle East, where a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas faces renewed pressure. Negotiations between the United States and Iran...
Bill Ackman Urges Investors to Ignore Media Doom as Iran Tensions Rise
Bill Ackman, founder of Pershing Square Capital Management, posted on X urging U.S. investors to disregard bearish media narratives and buy quality businesses at “extremely cheap” prices as geopolitical risk around Iran escalates. His contrarian stance, echoing Buffett’s fear‑greed principle,...
Light Data Week Ahead, Keep an Eye on Iran
This week looks like a lighter data week which watch Iran 🇺🇸 US -PPI -Beige Book -Empire State -Philly Fed 🇪🇺 EZ -EZ IP -EZ CPI Revisions 🇬🇧 GB GDP & IP 🇦🇺 AU -Jobs report -Inflation Expectations 🇳🇿 NZ PMI Composite & Services 🇨🇳 CN GDP, IP & Retail Sales
US‑Iran Talks Collapse in Islamabad, Leaving Emerging Markets on Edge
U.S. Vice President JD Vance led a 21‑hour delegation to Islamabad that failed to secure a nuclear‑non‑proliferation commitment from Iran, prompting the United States to leave with a “final and best offer.” The breakdown deepens geopolitical risk for oil‑exporting and...
Indian Equities Surge 5.8% as US‑Iran Ceasefire Sparks Best Weekly Gains Since 2021
The BSE Sensex climbed 4,230.70 points (5.77%) to 77,550.25 and the NSE Nifty 50 rose 1,337.5 points (5.88%) to 24,050.60, delivering the best weekly performance since February 2021. The rally was sparked by a tentative US‑Iran ceasefire, which eased geopolitical...
US Navy to Block All Strait of Hormuz Traffic
“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz” (No LNG cargo has left the Persian Gulf in over a...
Australia PM Albanese to Visit Brunei, Malaysia to Shore up Fuel Supply
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will travel to Brunei and Malaysia from April 14‑17 to reinforce fuel‑supply ties after the Iran‑driven blockade of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted global oil flows. Australia imports roughly 80% of its energy, and recent...
Govt Insists on Growth Target as World Bank Lowers Forecast
Indonesia’s government reaffirms a 5.4% GDP growth target for 2026, insisting it will meet or exceed the budgeted figure despite external headwinds. Economy Minister Airlangga Hartarto warned that the outcome hinges on geopolitical stability, particularly the ongoing United States‑Israel conflict...
How Markets Are Balancing Between External Shocks And Internal Risks
TD Asset Management’s Benjamin Gossack warned that markets are juggling external shocks—especially soaring oil prices—and internal risks such as a potential credit crunch. Investors responded by buying record volumes of equity put contracts, cushioning equity losses amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty....
A Fragile Truce
U.S. equities surged again, with the S&P 500 up 3.5% after a 3% gain last week, as a tentative cease‑fire between the U.S. and Iran eased Middle‑East tensions. The de‑escalation cooled oil markets, pulling prices from four‑year highs and alleviating fears...
Oil Tankers U-Turn In Hormuz As US-Iran Talks Break Down
Two empty crude tankers and an Aframax‑class vessel attempted to transit the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday but made last‑minute U‑turns near Iran's Larak and Qeshm islands. The VLCC Mombasa B succeeded in navigating the Iran‑approved corridor, while Agios Fanourios I...
Why Inflation Is the Economic Problem of the Decade
Inflation has re‑accelerated, highlighted by a 21.2% jump in gasoline prices in March—the largest monthly surge since the 1960s. The overall CPI rose 3.3% year‑over‑year, its highest level in almost two years, while a Fed‑preferred inflation gauge showed a 4.1%...
Here’s A List Of Gulf Energy Infrastructure Damaged In Iran War
Missile and drone strikes have damaged dozens of oil refineries, gas processing plants, pipelines and ports across the Gulf since the Iran‑Israel conflict erupted six weeks ago. Key facilities such as Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery (550,000 bbl/day), the East‑West pipeline, and...
US‑India Deal Set to Boost Energy, Metals, Tech Trade
The US-India trade deal could expand energy, metals, aircraft, and technology trade while reducing tariff pressure. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/us-india-trade-deal-could-reshape.html
Second Fuel Security Trip to Asia for PM
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is embarking on a second fuel‑security tour of Asia, visiting Brunei and Malaysia after securing Singapore's pledge not to restrict liquid fuel exports. Brunei supplies roughly 9% of Australia’s diesel and 11% of its fertiliser‑grade urea,...
West Asia Crisis: Ludhiana Handtool Export Units Face Labour, Gas Supply Shortages, High Input Costs
Export‑oriented hand‑tool manufacturers in Ludhiana are grappling with labor shortages, soaring input prices and an inadequate gas supply after the February US‑Israel‑Iran conflict disrupted West Asian trade. Steel, plastic and rubber costs have jumped 10‑15%, while freight, container and insurance...
THE $7 TRILLION FLOOR: It's 50% Above Pandemic Levels as a Starting Point, It's Expanding Again, & Why the Fed's...
The Federal Reserve has ended its balance‑sheet runoff and resumed large‑scale asset purchases, effectively restarting a new quantitative‑easing phase. The central bank’s balance sheet now hovers around $7 trillion, more than 50% above its pre‑pandemic size, establishing a higher permanent floor....
Inside the American Startups Trying to Break China's Mineral Chokehold
Phoenix Tailings, a New Hampshire startup, has raised $120 million to process rare‑earth metals from mine tailings, aiming to close the U.S. supply‑chain gap that China dominates at the mid‑stream stage. The company claims a zero‑emission process that extracts, separates, and...
Who Is Running US Foreign Policy? Varsha Gandikota and Jeremy Scahill
Varsha Gandikota‑Nellutla, general coordinator of Progressive International, interviews investigative journalist Jeremy Scahill on the Reframe podcast to question why former President Trump abandoned his pledge to end “forever wars” and whether Israel now drives U.S. foreign policy amid the US‑Israel conflict over...
White House Fields Warnings About Iran War’s Economic Hit
President Trump and senior advisers have been briefing White House officials on the economic fallout of a protracted war with Iran. Cabinet members, political allies, and corporate leaders warned that an extended conflict could depress U.S. GDP, spike oil prices,...
Brent at $95, but US Embargo Could Push $125
My base case is for many weeks of messy negotiations with Iran, but that war has basically ended. That's what I think is priced into Brent at $95. If negotiations fail and the US does an embargo of Iranian oil,...
Will the Recent Surge in Oil Prices Lead to Higher Social Security Paychecks in 2027?
Oil prices have spiked this year, briefly topping $110 per barrel before easing to around $95 amid a fragile Iran‑U.S. cease‑fire. The Social Security Administration calculates annual cost‑of‑living adjustments (COLAs) using the CPI‑W, which includes energy costs, so higher fuel...
Failed Iran Talks Leave Markets Unfazed, Hinting Future Stagnation
Vance flew home from Islamabad with nothing. 21 hours of talks, zero deal. Iran refused to give up nukes. BTC dropped 2% to $71,460. That's it. The market yawned at what was supposed to be the most important diplomatic event...
US Oil Imports Make Gulf Blockade Self‑inflicted Disaster
The US is a net importer of oil, and expanding exports + blockading the Persian Gulf is hilariously catastrophic for the US consumer.
Borderlands Mexico: China Automakers Gain Ground as U.S. Exports Soften
U.S. finished‑vehicle exports to North America are showing early signs of softening just as Chinese automakers, led by BYD and Geely, are expanding rapidly in Mexico. In March, Mexico produced 343,520 light vehicles and exported 310,205 units, a 4.2% year‑over‑year...
Trump's Policies Drive S&P to Historic Lows
Trump is not Making America Great Again. During the first 446 days, the S&P stock index has performed more poorly than the last 5 administrations. TRUMP'S TARIFFS + TRUMP'S WARS = MAKE AMERICA POOR AGAIN. https://t.co/YJKwRKjVhs
Rapid Oil Surge Signals Deflation, Not Inflation
The most critical thing to watch this week is if long duration yields fall into the Oil surge. We are on the verge of a massive deflation scare. You read that right. The SPEED of the oil move is DEFLATIONARY. The market has this...
African Economies Explore Stable Coins Option for Cross-Border Settlement
African nations are evaluating stablecoins as a cross‑border payment tool to offset chronic hard‑currency shortages, a trend highlighted by Visa’s regional manager. The digital assets, backed by reserve currencies, promise to preserve foreign‑exchange reserves while facilitating trade. Kenya’s recent credit‑based...
Turkey's Economy Fueled by Dwindling Gold Reserves
Turkey appears to be living off its gold reserves. Find out more in the Chartbook Top Link of today. https://t.co/E1jmvOnLzt
Poland and Baltics Poised to Outpace Italy, Spain
"For all of the intellectual dressing, Hungary has ended up looking more like Vladimir Putin’s mafia state, while Poland and the Baltic states, which adopted more classic market solutions, are on course to be richer than Spain and Italy." https://t.co/5aciS10VYB
Will the Iran Truce Hold? Where to Invest—Whether It Fizzles or Settles In
U.S. diplomats are negotiating a tentative truce with Iran, aiming to halt hostilities that have rattled global markets. Analysts warn that a breakdown could reignite volatility, while a durable cease‑fire may unlock a modest rally in risk assets. The piece...
Quick Summary of Today’s Strait of Hormuz Events
This morning’s Strait of Hormuz developments, summarized so you don’t need to read the president’s rambling morning long-posts: https://t.co/KWcJKMp2QV
Trump Announces US Blockade of Hormuz Shipping
*TRUMP SAYS US WILL BEGIN BLOCKADE OF SHIPS TO AND FROM HORMUZ The shipping tourists can stop counting ships. It is now zero. https://t.co/1AQGj4UeEF
Global Inflation Will Skyrocket
The ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict is tightening oil supplies, driving Asian spot prices above $12 per barrel—a 60% increase since hostilities intensified. Analysts draw parallels to the 1973 oil crisis, which triggered double‑digit inflation across the United States, United Kingdom, France,...
ADNOC Warns World Cannot Afford Hormuz Closure
Adnoc CEO: “The Strait of Hormuz has never been Iran’s to close or restrict… The world simply cannot afford it and must not allow it” (Adnoc hasn’t been able to export LNG for over a month to customers in Asia and...
Saudi Arabia Profits From Oil Surge, Resists Swift Peace
The biggest winner in this war may be Saudi Arabia, which is likely seeing its annual export revenues from oil rise substantially even with lower volumes thanks to the spike in prices. The Saudis have very little incentive to push...
Coal Imports Fall 8.5% in February Amid High Stockpiles, Firm Global Prices
India’s coal imports dropped 8.5% in February, reaching 16.55 million tonnes, as record domestic stockpiles and firm seaborne prices curbed demand. Non‑coking coal fell to 9.80 MT, while coking coal rose slightly to 3.92 MT. Domestic production rose 4.98% to 1,047.5 MT, keeping power‑plant...
Turkey Alone Cuts Central Bank Gold; Others Remain Flat
There's endless chatter central banks are selling gold. For the 3 central banks for which we have weekly data (India, Thailand, Turkey), only Turkey has seen gold holdings fall lots (-$20 bn). Gold holdings are flat for the other two....
Turkey Sells $20bn Gold as Lira Faces Depreciation Risk
If negotiations with Iran fail, Turkey will be immediately back in the firing line of global markets. It sold and swapped 128 tons of gold to bolster its FX reserves by around $20 bn in recent weeks, a sign of...
Task for the Week: Limit the Fallout From Biggest Oil Shock in Decades | Richard Partington
The IMF and World Bank convene in Washington as the US‑Israeli war on Iran triggers the biggest oil shock of the modern era. Brent crude, after peaking near $120 a barrel, remains well above the pre‑conflict $72 level, driving inflation...
Real Set to Surge Amid US‑Iran Tension
What the Brazilian Real needs to outperform is for Iran and the US to talk, taking catastrophic escalation off the table, but for negotiations to be difficult, which keeps oil prices high. That's exactly where we are and is the...
March 2026 Leading Indicators Reveal Emerging Economic Weakness
My latest blog post -> Global Leading Indicators, March 2026 - A Chink in the Armour https://t.co/ZGzleYt87c