Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
The Billion Barrel Cost of a Longer Iran War
President Trump used his latest address to reaffirm that the United States is on track to achieve its military objectives in Iran within a few weeks, signaling a longer‑than‑expected conflict. He repeated earlier claims that the war’s energy‑price impact is temporary and necessary, while urging European and Asian nations to take responsibility for securing oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The messaging suggests the Strait will remain closed for at least another month, keeping global oil markets on a tighter supply curve. Consequently, oil prices are likely to stay elevated as the war drags on.
Matchett for War on the Rocks on Threats to Desalination Plants and Preparedness for Attacks in the Gulf
Ginger Matchett warns that Gulf desalination plants—critical for millions—are increasingly vulnerable to kinetic and non‑kinetic attacks, including missiles, drones, cyber intrusions, oil pollution, pipeline sabotage, and power shortages. Such disruptions could precipitate widespread water scarcity, economic distress, and humanitarian crises....
Energy Security Drives Coal ETF Assets to Double in March
The Range Global Coal Index ETF (COAL) saw assets double in March as investors rushed into coal amid heightened energy‑security concerns triggered by the Persian Gulf conflict. COAL climbed just over 11% in the month and has delivered roughly 60%...
Oil Prices Surge After Trump Vows To Hit Iran ‘Extremely Hard’
President Donald Trump warned of a two‑to‑three‑week escalation against Iran, sending oil markets into a frenzy. Brent crude surged more than 10% to breach the $100‑per‑barrel mark, while the 10‑year Treasury yield climbed above 4.3%. Mortgage rates followed, jumping to...
Strait Talk: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Guild Investment Management outlines a dual‑track outlook as the Iran‑Israel war spikes oil to $110 per barrel and tightens global liquidity. The bearish case hinges on pre‑existing liquidity contraction, rising inflation expectations, and potential 15‑20% equity corrections tied to oil...
Iran War Undermines U.S. Strategy Across Asia
As the United States wages war with Iran, much of Washington has been consumed with a geopolitical debate about what it will mean for America’s strategic competition with China. But this abstract debate belies the harsh realities now facing governments,...
Govt Imposes Import Curbs on All Articles of Gold, Silver, Platinum
The Indian government has imposed a blanket import ban on all articles of gold, silver and platinum, overriding any existing contracts, letters of credit or advance payments. The Directorate General of Foreign Trade announced the revision of Chapter 71 of the...
US Seeks Bids for 10mn Bl Crude Release From SPR
The U.S. Department of Energy announced a second round of exchange contracts to loan up to 10 million barrels of sour crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with 2 million barrels available in April and 8 million in May. Companies must return the...
Another Fed Rate Cut Still Possible but Far From Guaranteed
The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.5‑3.75 % after the March 2026 meeting, with only one dissenting vote for a cut. The latest dot‑plot shows 12 of 19 policymakers still expect at least one more reduction this year,...
Kroenig Published in The DailyWire on US Options in Iran
Atlantic Council vice‑president Matthew Kroenig appeared on The Daily Wire to argue that the United States has already met its core objectives in the ongoing conflict with Iran. He claims Iran’s military capacity has been significantly weakened over the past...
Hamas Wants Guarantees of Israeli Troop Withdrawal Before Disarmament Talks, Sources Say
Hamas told mediators it will not discuss disarmament without guarantees that Israel fully withdraws from Gaza, as outlined in President Trump’s Board of Peace plan. The group presented demands to Egyptian, Qatari and Turkish envoys, insisting on an end to...
Market Odds Suggest US Troops Soon Despite Trump’s Vague Timeline
“We’ll be leaving very soon, within two weeks, maybe a couple of days longer to do the job. But we want to knock out every single thing they have." -President Trump (3/31) If this is true, why is Polymarket showing a...
Dollar Index Rally Runs Out Of Steam- UDN Is A Bearish Dollar Index ETF
Analysts rate Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index Bearish Fund (UDN) a buy as the dollar index’s recent rally to 100.64 appears to be losing momentum. Long‑term bearish pressures—rising U.S. debt, de‑dollarization trends, and a shift of central‑bank reserves toward gold—continue...
Tariffs Boost Inflation, Stall Growth, Offer No Trade Gains
Four theses on tariff impacts: 1. Evidence clearly shows they've added 0.5-1.0pp to inflation. Evidence consistent with them subtracting from growth. And no evidence they've done anything good for manufacturing or trade deficits (but they have raised revenue).
Economy Thriving: Record Gains Amid Minimal Recession
The unemployment rate is 4.4%. This week’s ADP payroll report was better than expected. The retail sales report was also better than expected and the January report was revised higher. The ISM Manufacturing report was positive for the third month in a row,...
How To Break Up With China
The article outlines a strategic playbook for U.S. firms seeking to reduce dependence on Chinese manufacturing and market exposure. It highlights three core steps: mapping critical supply‑chain nodes, building alternative sourcing hubs in Southeast Asia and Mexico, and renegotiating contracts...
Strait of Hormuz Closure Pushes Asia-US Ocean Rates up 29%
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a sharp rise in ocean freight rates on major east‑west lanes. Spot rates from the Far East to the U.S. West Coast jumped 29% since the end of February, while routes...
China Calls for Promoting Middle East Ceasefire in Talks with EU, Germany
China’s foreign minister Wang Yi urged the EU and Germany to push for an immediate cease‑fire in the Israel‑Hamas war and to secure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. He framed a cease‑fire as essential for maritime safety and...
U.S. Trade Deficit Grows to $57.3 Billion in February, Missing Forecasts
The U.S. Commerce Department said the trade deficit expanded to $57.3 billion in February, up from $54.7 billion in January but below market forecasts. The modest widening eases some pressure on GDP calculations, currency markets and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
India–Australia Trade Pact Completes Four Years; Trade Reaches USD 24.1 Billion in 2024–25: Govt
The India‑Australia Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement celebrated its fourth anniversary, with bilateral trade climbing to $24.1 billion in FY24‑25. Indian exports to Australia more than doubled, reaching $8.5 billion, while overall trade grew 8 percent year‑over‑year. The pact grants India preferential access...
Trump's Iran War Address Preempts "The Masked Singer" Finale, Shifts Prime‑Time Lineup
President Donald Trump delivered a prime‑time address on Wednesday at 9 p.m. ET, interrupting the season‑finale of The Masked Singer and a Survivor special across ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX. The speech, aimed at updating the nation on the two‑month‑old Iran...
Fruit of the Boom: The Impact of the Industrial Revolution on Economic Growth
The article examines how the Industrial Revolution transformed the United Kingdom’s economy by dramatically increasing output per worker and reshaping labor markets. It highlights the rise of factories, the surge in the marginal product of labor, and the resulting boost...
Trump Tariffs Cast Shadow as US-China Trade Shrinks Ahead of Xi Meeting
U.S. trade data released Thursday shows direct commerce with China continuing to shrink, reaching one of the lowest bilateral goods deficits in two decades. The decline follows last year’s tariff escalations, which have deepened economic tensions between the two powers....
Russian Dy PM Manturov, Modi Discuss Trade, Energy, Fertilizers Amid West Asia Tensions
Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi to expand a strategic partnership covering trade, energy, fertilizers and investment. The talks, part of Manturov’s two‑day visit, focused on stabilising payment settlements, strengthening...
ECB's Villeroy: The Next Change in Rates Is Highly Likely to Be Upwards
ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau signaled that the next monetary policy move is likely an interest‑rate increase, though he stopped short of setting a timetable. He emphasized the central bank’s readiness to act whenever conditions demand and...
A Reality Check on Tariffs, Debt, and Growth From a Former Finance Minister
In this episode, former Chilean Finance Minister and LSE dean Andrés Velasco discusses the evolution of Latin American democracies, the decline of hyperinflation, and the limited impact of renegotiating NAFTA/USMCA on North American trade. He explains how Chile’s prudent fiscal policy—saving...
Oil Jumps to $118 a Barrel as Trump’s Iran Address Triggers Market Sell‑off
President Donald Trump’s prime‑time address on the Iran war on April 1, 2026 warned of intensified strikes in the next two to three weeks, prompting oil prices to climb to $118 a barrel and U.S. stock indexes to fall. Analysts...
UK Convenes 40‑nation Summit to Chart Path for Reopening Strait of Hormuz
British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper chaired a video conference of more than 40 nations to devise diplomatic and security steps for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20% of global oil and LNG. The meeting comes as oil prices...
Gold Sellers Beware: Iran's CNY Deal Triggers Arbitrage
They’ll hold a meeting, realize they can’t open it if the US couldn’t, & then just agree to pay Iran in CNY… …and the easiest/only way to secure CNY is by buying physical gold in USD and selling that gold to...
Fed Model Returns: Rates Matching Equities Threaten Stocks
One of my main themes since the rate reset in 2022 is that the Fed model is “back.” The Fed model, popularized by Alan Greenspan during the 1980’s, holds that when the risk-free rate (Treasuries) is competitive with risky assets...
Several Measures Announced to Cushion Exporters From Gulf Conflict Impact: DGFT
The Indian government announced a suite of measures to protect exporters from disruptions caused by the Gulf region conflict. Exporters of gems, jewellery, rice, pharma and other high‑value goods, which generated about $57 billion in FY 2024‑25, face rising freight costs, war‑risk...
Iran Conflict Could Waste Over One Billion Barrels
🚨 NEW POST 🚨 The Billion Barrel Cost of a Longer Iran War The total volume of unproduced Gulf barrels is set to rise above one billion barrels over full shock duration; lost production in April alone will absorb nearly the entire...
National Debt Is About Sustainability, Not Household Limits
Public debt isn’t like household debt. A family can hit a hard stop. A country can refinance, tax, grow, and revisit its budget year after year. The issue is sustainability, not a single scary number. https://t.co/T4l1gg78Xk
Europe Diesel at Four-Year High Above $200 as Iran War Disrupts Supply
European diesel prices have climbed above $200 per metric ton, marking the highest level in four years. The surge is driven by supply disruptions stemming from the ongoing war in Iran, which has curtailed regional fuel exports. European refiners are...
2026 Food Crisis Fears Ease Compared to 2022
VIDEO COLUMN: Another food crisis? The experience of 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, plus the increase in fertiliser prices, have prompted concern about another food price spike. But the situation in 2026 isn't nearly as concerning. At least, no yet. https://t.co/BjXPjnhMrG
2026 Forecast: Economy Expected to Grow 4‑5% Real
“We are going to see a very, very strong economy this year. We could see between 4 and 5% real growth." - Scott Bessent, Jan 2026 https://t.co/JlonK53rXZ
Central Banks Gold Purchases Net up in February, but Russia, Turkiye Sell
Central banks bought a net 19 tonnes of gold in February, led by Poland’s 20‑tonne purchase and Uzbekistan’s 8‑tonne addition. China logged its 16th consecutive month of net buying, while the Czech Republic marked a 36‑month streak. Turkey and Russia...
US Current Account Deficit Steadies Near 4% of GDP
True, but also a bit deceptive. The spike in q1 overstated the "true" current account deficit, and the unwinding of gold and pharma front running depressed the h2 deficit. The underlying current account deficit is still...
War Dominates March 2026, Markets Stay Surprisingly Calm
Beware the ides of March? That was true in 2026 as the month started with war, with questions about how long and to what end, and ended with war, and the same questions. Oil prices were up, stock prices were...
So, What Was President Biden’s Grand Strategy?
The Atlantic Council podcast hosted by Matthew Kroenig features Rebecca Lissner discussing President Biden’s overarching foreign‑policy blueprint. Lissner outlines a strategy built on reinforcing alliances, promoting democratic norms, and countering China’s rising influence. The conversation also probes whether former President...
Q1 Review Highlights Emerging Risks for Global Markets
Always good fun to talk all things markets with my good friend @MrMBrown as we look back at Q1 and what might lie ahead in terms of risks for global markets and the economy https://t.co/byl3LqaH3U
Brent Oil Surges to $141.37, Highest Since 2008
Physical oil hits its highest level since 2008 *DATED BRENT OIL PRICE SOARS TO $141.37/BBL, HIGHEST SINCE 2008 https://t.co/OkcbcnE3kg
AI-Enabled Goods Lead US Imports in 2025
AI-enabling goods were big drivers of US imports in 2025. More charts and graphs featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/hsx98RbAJP
Tariffs Cut Trade Deficit to Lowest Since 2020
The Massive Unsustainable Trade Deficit in Goods Has Improved Sharply. Tariffs Are Doing their Job. The 6-month average trade deficit in goods fell to $80 billion, the least-bad since 2020 https://t.co/xhTU8KRbPU https://t.co/pDi3O4iYwF
Trump Boasts Rapid US Takeover of Venezuela, Sparks Criticism
Trump on the US capture of Venezuela in his address to the nation: "American troops took the country of Venezuela in a matter of minutes...it was quick, lethal, violent & respected by everyone all over the world.” IS THIS REALLY WORTH THE...
S&P 500 Mirrors Intraday Treasury Yield Swings
$SPX is tracking intraday peaks and troughs in Treasury yields very closely as macro correlations remain elevated #fairleadstrategies https://t.co/9bi1kaFWxh
Key Metrics to Watch for Tomorrow’s Jobs Day
If you're trying to figure out what metrics actually matter for Jobs Day tomorrow, check out this valuable piece from @PrestonMui and @_vikasbp: How The Fed Is Tracking Jobs Day https://t.co/zWQYamKDaT https://t.co/NeRpIroGPi
Iran's Strait Fees Threaten Global Shipping Costs
Iran. Will impose fees for using the Strait. How long will the fees last? Financial impact for all the affected shippers/receivers for the different vessel and end use markets? Will some supply chains collapse?
Trump’s Tariffs Echo Nixon, Yet Turn Grimmer
Trump’s protectionist Nixon redux takes a darker turn than the original This is truly the outstanding column on the anniversary of Trump's April Fools' Liberation Day Tariffs. Must read by Alan Beattie in @financialtimes https://t.co/tQg3yTTDU5
US Soy Exports to China Slightly Up, Q1 Plummets
🇺🇸USA exported 2.43 million metric tons (89 mbu) of soybeans to China in February, slightly above the month's five-year average. Q2 (Dec-Feb) 2025/26 U.S. bean shipments to China edged the year-ago Q2 volume by about one cargo, but Q1 2025/26 was...